Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Great Japan quake generates 8-foot tsunami in California
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 11:00 PM GMT on March 11, 2011 +7
A great earthquake rocked the coast of Japan at 5:46 GMT on March 11, generating a dangerous tsunami that raced across the Pacific. The mighty earthquake was rated 8.9 on the Richter scale, making it the 7th most powerful tremor in world history. The world's 8th largest earthquake, a magnitude 8.8 event, hit Chile on February 27, 2010; never before have two top-ten earthquakes hit so close together in time. Today's quake was the strongest in Japanese history, and will likely be the most expensive natural disaster in world history, surpassing the $133+ billion dollar price tag from Hurricane Katrina.


Figure 1. Model-computed energy from the March 11, 2011 tsunami as visualized by the NOAA Visualization Lab.

In the U.S., the highest tsunami waves from the earthquake hit northern California and southern Oregon, with a wave height of 8.1 feet observed at Crescent City, CA, 8.6 feet at Port San Luis, CA, 8.7 feet at Arena Cove, CA, and 6.1 feet at Port Orford, OR. The tsunami swept four photographers out to sea in the Crescent City harbor, injuring three of them and leaving one missing. Extensive damage was done to the harbor and 35 boats. Up to $2 million in damage also occurred in the Santa Cruz harbor south of San Francisco.


Figure 2. Tide gauge at Crescent City, CA during the March 11, 2011 tsunami. The green line shows the height of the tsunami wave; the red line shows the observed water level. The highest tsunami wave came at at 17 UTC (9am PST), an hour and 10 minutes after the initial wave, and was 7 feet high. Image credit: NOAA.

Crescent City was hit by a devastating tsunami after the March 28, 1964 magnitude 8.8 earthquake in Alaska, which killed ten people in the city and destroyed much of the business district. The city is fortunate today that the tsunami hit at low tide, or else water levels would have been five feet higher in the city during the wave. The tide gauge at Crescent City, CA (Figure 2) shows that at least 18 separate tsunami waves have hit the harbor as of 2:45pm PST. The first wave came at about 15:50 UTC (7:50am PST), was about 2.5 feet high, and was not preceded by the ocean falling and water being sucked out to sea. After this initial wave, the ocean level dropped rapidly by 8 feet, and then a series of large waves began rushing in and out, with up to a 13 foot difference between low water and high water. The rapid speed of the in-rushing and outflowing waves were what did the damage to the harbor and its boats. The largest wave came at 17 UTC (9am PST), an hour and 10 minutes after the initial wave, and was 8.1 feet high. Fortunately, this wave came near the time of low tide, and the wave was only 2 feet above last night's high tide mark. Tidal range between low and high tide is about 5 feet at Crescent City. The tide is now rising, and new tsunami waves with height of 3 - 4 feet are still rushing in and out, with the one just before 21 UTC (1pm PST) reaching a height about 2 feet above high tide.


Figure 3. Propagation of the March 11, 2011 Honshu tsunami was computed with the NOAA forecast method using the MOST model with the tsunami source inferred from DART® data. From the NOAA Center for Tsunami Research, located at NOAA PMEL in Seattle, WA.

Portlight.org is mobilizing to provide financial assistance to people with disabilities affected by the disaster, and there will undoubtedly be a huge relief effort by numerous charities in the wake of the earthquake. Your financial contributions and prayers for those affected will be valuable.

Jeff Masters
Waves (Feather3)
During our tsunami warning that had been downgraded to an advisory, this afternoon. It was getting closer to high tide, but it was strange, watching the surges: one minute, the beach was bare, and within minutes, a surge would build up as wave after wave, low, but surging, would inundate the beaches....more shots to come.
Waves
Categories: Earthquake
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751. Neapolitan 12:08 AM GMT on March 13, 2011    
Quoting JohnTucker:
Geologists suspect that today's quake was actually an aftershock of a much weaker magnitude-7.2 quake on 9 March.

That first line sounds funny; I've always been under the impression that the main shock is the largest quake in any particular sequence, so that any smaller jolts that happen before are considered foreshocks, and those afterwards are aftershocks.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 11166
752. SquallyWx 12:08 AM GMT on March 13, 2011    
Quoting TampaFLUSA:
I'm trying to read through the posts, who and what agency posted that map? If it is not 100% true it should be taken off this site immediately imo.


A map like that could cause panic that is not needed at a time such as this. If it is in fact false I agree that it should be moved straight away.
Member Since: January 25, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 63
753. SquallyWx 12:10 AM GMT on March 13, 2011    
If there was radiation fallout, wouldn't most of it occur over the Pacific Ocean?
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754. ShenValleyFlyFish 12:12 AM GMT on March 13, 2011    
Quoting Beachfoxx:
Hey Mobal -

We are DOOMED! : )
No, the correct blog syntax is "we are DOOM". Years ago tazz typed -we are DOOM- and it became a running joke.
Member Since: September 9, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4684
755. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 12:13 AM GMT on March 13, 2011    
Quoting Neapolitan:
From Wikipedia:

This earthquake released a surface energy (Me) of 1.9+0.5×1017 joules, dissipated as shaking and tsunami energy, which is nearly double that of the Sumatran earthquake in 2004 which killed 230,000 people. However, the total energy released (Mw), the USGS WPhase Moment Solution recorded 3.9×1029 joules, slightly less than the 2004 Sumatra quake. The total energy released underground was some 205,000 times that on the surface. Total energy release is equivalent to about 9,320 gigatons of TNT equivalent (535 million times that of Hiroshima), or about 360 years of energy use in the United States at 2005 levels of 1.08×1020 J. These figures are subject to revision.


The changes may be imperceptible to most people, but the massive earthquake that struck off the coast of Japan Friday had a startling impact on the Earth, experts say. The 8.9-magnitude quake moved Japan's main island by more than two metres, in addition to shifting Earth on its axis and briefly speeding up its rotation.
Early data from Japan suggests the earthquake moved the island about 2.4 metres, according to Kenneth Hudnut of the U.S. Geological Survey. The agency compared information from a GPS station that had moved by more than two metres with satellite images from Japan.
Late Friday, scientists at NASA revealed the quake shaved more than a microsecond from the day. The quake, which lasted about two minutes, sped up the earth's rotation by about 1.6 microseconds. (One microsecond is one-millionth of a second.) NASA geophysicist Richard Gross said the quake shifted the Earth's mass, which caused the change in speed.

While the speed change was only slightly more than what was caused by last year's earthquake in Chile, it was considerably less than the quake in Sumatra in 2004. That quake sped up the Earth's rotation by 6.8 microseconds.

Meanwhile, a report from Italy's National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology suggested Friday's quake shifted the Earth on its axis by an estimated 10 centimetres.

The quake was the fifth-largest recorded in the world since 1900. The quake was an estimated 299 kilometres long and 150 kilometres wide, and occurred where the North American and Pacific tectonic plates intersect, in the northwest region of the "Ring of Fire."

Thousands of people were missing after Friday's tremblor, which triggered a tsunami that swept away entire villages. By late Saturday, the death toll had risen to more than 600, with thousands of people still missing. Several million residents were also without power.

With files from The Associated Press

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 144 Comments: 40651
757. SquallyWx 12:16 AM GMT on March 13, 2011    
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


The changes may be imperceptible to most people, but the massive earthquake that struck off the coast of Japan Friday had a startling impact on the Earth, experts say. The 8.9-magnitude quake moved Japan's main island by more than two metres, in addition to shifting Earth on its axis and briefly speeding up its rotation.
Early data from Japan suggests the earthquake moved the island about 2.4 metres, according to Kenneth Hudnut of the U.S. Geological Survey. The agency compared information from a GPS station that had moved by more than two metres with satellite images from Japan.
Late Friday, scientists at NASA revealed the quake shaved more than a microsecond from the day. The quake, which lasted about two minutes, sped up the earth's rotation by about 1.6 microseconds. (One microsecond is one-millionth of a second.) NASA geophysicist Richard Gross said the quake shifted the Earth's mass, which caused the change in speed.

While the speed change was only slightly more than what was caused by last year's earthquake in Chile, it was considerably less than the quake in Sumatra in 2004. That quake sped up the Earth's rotation by 6.8 microseconds.

Meanwhile, a report from Italy's National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology suggested Friday's quake shifted the Earth on its axis by an estimated 10 centimetres.

The quake was the fifth-largest recorded in the world since 1900. The quake was an estimated 299 kilometres long and 150 kilometres wide, and occurred where the North American and Pacific tectonic plates intersect, in the northwest region of the "Ring of Fire."

Thousands of people were missing after Friday's tremblor, which triggered a tsunami that swept away entire villages. By late Saturday, the death toll had risen to more than 600, with thousands of people still missing. Several million residents were also without power.

With files from The Associated Press



My ignorance will show with this question, but is it possible that a slight shift in the axis of the earth is actually what causes these large quakes? It seems possible, but unlikely.
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758. 1911maker 12:18 AM GMT on March 13, 2011    
I read this when it first hit the net many years back. I have no idea of how accurate it is, but if it is accurate, it gives you an idea of what may happen in Japan. Assuming the media is not blowing smoke like they tend to do.


My name is Elena.
Link
I travel a lot and one of my favorite destinations leads North from Kiev, towards so called Chernobyl "dead zone", which is 130kms from my home. Why my favorite? Because one can take long rides there on empty roads. .............



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760. WatchingThisOne 12:21 AM GMT on March 13, 2011    
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
Why isnt Fox news or CNN talking about this meltdown if other places are mentioning a meltdown in in progress?


Can you say "cable news"?

bbb.co.uk is doing a good job.
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762. Xyrus2000 12:22 AM GMT on March 13, 2011    
Quoting pottery:

In any event, this is a most serious situation.
It sounds like it is getting worse as well.
With faults in the cooling systems, how do you stop it melting down?


Flood it, which what they are gong to do, if not doing already. Worst, case, it wouldn't be a full meltdown as they did manage to get some of the fuel out before everything went to hell.

What's most important is whether it remains contained. Even a full meltdown isn't a full scale disaster if the containment vessel can remain intact. What made Chernobyl really bad, was that they used graphite control rods. Once meltdown was in progress, the rods dried out and then ignited creating a massive explosion which destroyed the containment system, exposing the core to open air which further fueled the fire spewing massive amounts of vaporized radioactive material into the air.

Actually, radiation is just one concern with a meltdown. Most of that is concentrated in fairly small area. Even with Chernobyl relatively few died from the immediate radiation effects. Another concern from the products of fission reactions. Most elements produced in the reactions are very toxic, with even small amounts capable of seriously harming or killing (and that's not even including the effects from radiation). These heavy elements accumulate in the body and in the food chain and remain there for extended periods of time. Remaining in a contaminated area where you are breathing in or ingesting these elements on a daily basis will most likely kill you faster than the radiation itself will.
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763. TampaFLUSA 12:23 AM GMT on March 13, 2011    
Quoting RitaEvac:
Nobody has a handle on whats going on, hell with all the info coming out from media and Japan, just think worse case scenario and prepare for the worst


Whose map or agency is this?
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764. RitaEvac 12:24 AM GMT on March 13, 2011    
Quoting TampaFLUSA:
Whose map or agency is this?


Nobody knows
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765. Neapolitan 12:26 AM GMT on March 13, 2011    
Quoting TampaFLUSA:
Whose map or agency is this?

It's not anyone's. It needs to stop being posted over and over and over until/unless it's verified by authorities.

Here's a new video just released. It's amazing how quickly a tranquil scene can turn horrifying. Looks to be about 30' of water coming in...:

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766. TampaFLUSA 12:27 AM GMT on March 13, 2011    
Quoting RitaEvac:


Nobody knows
Then why put your credibility on the line posting it here?
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767. Beachfoxx 12:28 AM GMT on March 13, 2011    
Member Since: July 10, 2005 Posts: 153 Comments: 29285
768. Floodman 12:28 AM GMT on March 13, 2011    
Quoting RitaEvac:
Nobody has a handle on whats going on, hell with all the info coming out from media and Japan, just think worse case scenario and prepare for the worst




Niiiice...I have come to expect you to be the bearer of good news

LOL
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9919
769. Xyrus2000 12:28 AM GMT on March 13, 2011    
Quoting sunlinepr:
Where is the debate in the blog about fossil fuels vs. Nuclear energy?? A couple of weeks ago that was the hot debate here...

Considering Japan as a highly advanced society and the role it plays for the world as a model to implement...
The question is: In a situation like this, is it really advanced?
What model can mankind implement that is really the best answer to our social needs?



A meltdown is a catastrophic failure of the reactor core, with a potential for widespread radiation release. However, Toshiro Bannai, director of the agency's international affairs office, expressed confidence that efforts to control the crisis would prove successful.

Meanwhile, a second reactor at the same facility failed shortly after 5 a.m. Sunday, the Tokyo Electric Power Company said, according to TV Asahi. The power company said it was having difficulty cooling the reactor and may need to release radioactive steam in order to relieve pressure.


Nuclear is still by far the safest method for power production. Your also failing to note that the reactor design used in this case was an outdated an unsafe reactor design to use in a seismically active area.

To put it into perspective, the Three Mile Island reactor was safer than this reactor. They had no secondary containment system and they used an active cooling system. The only saving grace so far is that they aren't using flammable neutron absorption materials.

Even if a full meltdown occurs, it won't be anywhere near as bad as Chernobyl where the entire containment system blew apart and exposed the full core to open air.
Member Since: October 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1017
770. WatchingThisOne 12:28 AM GMT on March 13, 2011    
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
thats why he's the doc smart



Amen. He's not just smart, he's wise. You younger folk on here pay attention. It's a free lesson.

Always display humility and respect regardless of who you are talking to. That's what Dr. Masters does.

"In the beginner's mind, there are many possibilities; in the expert's, few." The good Doctor understands how to know so much and always remain a beginner, with eyes open. Kudos, Doc.

Best wishes to all in what looks to be a very trying period coming at us.

WTO
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 1249
771. WatchingThisOne 12:31 AM GMT on March 13, 2011    
Quoting pwmeek:


Not quite the same. Your description of exposure to independent, unchanging odds is quite correct. Your application of that risk to earthquakes is less so.

An earthquake on a fault is an event with changing odds that get more likely (approaching certainty) the longer the time since the last stress-relieving earthquake. If the most recent interval is longer than the average interval, it is indeed "overdue". The faults described as "overdue" have accumulated stresses as big as they were the last time they let loose.

If you load a structure with sandbags, one at a time, and are approaching (and even a bit past) the specified strength of the structure, and propose to add one more sandbag every minute, then at some point (if it hasn't collapsed already) you should describe the structure as "overdue for a collapse".

A fault coming under increasing stress each year can easily and reasonably be described as overdue, especially when it has a history of relieving the stress with an earthquake at fairly regular intervals.

So, I would agree that Tampa might not qualify as "overdue" for a hurricane, since the location and strength of hurricanes (within the areas where they occur) is an event for which the odds do not change by reason of time. Tampa may have been lucky, but the odds are (roughly, discounting things that make one hurricane season more or less intense than another) the same next year as they were last year.

Fault earthquakes are another story.



Wow. Thanks for that!
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772. RitaEvac 12:32 AM GMT on March 13, 2011    
Quoting TampaFLUSA:
Then why put your credibility on the line posting it here?


I think its legit
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773. TampaFLUSA 12:34 AM GMT on March 13, 2011    
Quoting RitaEvac:


I think its legit
WHERE did you get it from? Link please.
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774. WatchingThisOne 12:35 AM GMT on March 13, 2011    
Quoting Cochise000:
I know everyone on this blog will be thrilled with this Surprise!


Please don't do that. That is how people get taken to malicious links, to the detriment of their computers.
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 1249
775. Neapolitan 12:35 AM GMT on March 13, 2011    
Quoting RitaEvac:


I think its legit

I've seen a dozen sites debunking it as false. What do you have to corroborate its legitimacy beyond your personal belief? Seriously: it would be best if you don't post it yet again. If, however, you feel you must, you should note that it's of uncertain provenance and validity.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 11166
776. mobal 12:36 AM GMT on March 13, 2011    
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
No, the correct blog syntax is "we are DOOM". Years ago tazz typed -we are DOOM- and it became a running joke.


If you say so.........

LOL!
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777. Xyrus2000 12:36 AM GMT on March 13, 2011    
Quoting alfabob:
Regardless of whether a complete meltdown has already occurred or not, does anyone really think they are going to openly tell the public right away? From the news reports I've read so far, I wouldn't doubt that a meltdown has already occurred. Also as far as I'm concerned, anyone who is saying this isn't headed towards the west coast as this upper level low picks it up, is outright lying or is simply misinformed.



Really, everyone needs to settle down. This is not Chernobyl redux.
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778. Xyrus2000 12:38 AM GMT on March 13, 2011    
Quoting Tazmanian:
is it time too leve the W Coast has 750 RADS can kill


Unless you're sleeping on top of the reactors over there, you're not going to get 750 RADS.
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779. RitaEvac 12:38 AM GMT on March 13, 2011    
I wont post it anymore then, let the media and experts deal with it
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780. ShenValleyFlyFish 12:39 AM GMT on March 13, 2011    
Quoting RitaEvac:


I think its legit
What you THINK doesn't count. It is unethical to post something you can't verify as fact.
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781. RitaEvac 12:41 AM GMT on March 13, 2011    
All I will say is that I work in the Geospatial industry and I know by looking at that map that it could pass for a legit map. It may be fake, but that looks like a map that leaked out from an agency.
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782. RitaEvac 12:43 AM GMT on March 13, 2011    
What I think does count, I don't listen to the media or experts, so you go ahead sheep and follow thru the line like the rest
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 8912
783. Xyrus2000 12:43 AM GMT on March 13, 2011    
Quoting flsky:
Can this information (750 rads) be correct?

Link


Yes it is, but the you're not going to get that here in the US. Nor are you going to get that unless you're getting all cozy with the reactor cores.
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784. EYEStoSEA 12:43 AM GMT on March 13, 2011    
I believe Xyrus2000....and he makes me feel calmer~~~~.....
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785. WatchingThisOne 12:44 AM GMT on March 13, 2011    
Quoting Xyrus2000:


Nuclear is still by far the safest method for power production. Your also failing to note that the reactor design used in this case was an outdated an unsafe reactor design to use in a seismically active area.

To put it into perspective, the Three Mile Island reactor was safer than this reactor. They had no secondary containment system and they used an active cooling system. The only saving grace so far is that they aren't using flammable neutron absorption materials.

Even if a full meltdown occurs, it won't be anywhere near as bad as Chernobyl where the entire containment system blew apart and exposed the full core to open air.


Corium (former reactor core) is at many thousands of degrees when it sinks through the (former) containment building floor.

Depending on what it is sinking into, there may be a rapid and dangerous release of a lot of radioactive particles and gases. That is my current understanding, but this is not my area.

Edit: this is not what happened at Chernobyl. They had a partial meltdown caused by shutdown of the circulation system (the operators made a wee mistake). They got it back under control, but still had a moderate release of radioactive particles and gases. They did not have a full core meltdown - a "China Syndrome."
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786. ShenValleyFlyFish 12:44 AM GMT on March 13, 2011    
Quoting mobal:


If you say so.........

LOL!
Actually I had it wrong. Tazz did it right. It's "Where DOOM". Tazz is a good sport.
Member Since: September 9, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4684
787. Ossqss 12:45 AM GMT on March 13, 2011    
It is truly incredible the number of 5.0 or higher quakes that have been registered in Japan over the last few days and continue unabated. I don't think I have ever viewed anything even remotely close. Look for yourself. This filters everything out but that size or larger. Amazing to think what it is like to be there when the ground shakes that hard, that often and over that long a period of time.......

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsw w/Quakes/quakes_big.php
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788. Xandra 12:46 AM GMT on March 13, 2011    
It’s perhaps better to just check the updates on the IAEA (International Atomic Emergency Agency) Alert Log instead of different news sites to get a better view of the situation with the Japanese reactors?

IAEA Link
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789. nrtiwlnvragn 12:46 AM GMT on March 13, 2011    
Best picture of containment reactor building I have seen.


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790. Tazmanian 12:49 AM GMT on March 13, 2011    
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Actually I had it wrong. Tazz did it right. It's "Where DOOM". Tazz is a good sport.



LOL
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111359
791. ShenValleyFlyFish 12:50 AM GMT on March 13, 2011    
Gee, the season hasn't started. Hate to get started with EGNORE and RE-PORT, BTW where did ignore go?
Member Since: September 9, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4684
792. beell 12:51 AM GMT on March 13, 2011    
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Best picture of containment building I have seen.




Damage seems consistent with hydrogen (lighter than air)collecting in the top of the reactor shed until ignition.

Might be time to repost your link regarding "Australian Radiation Services", nrt!

Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 125 Comments: 12886
793. DEKRE 12:51 AM GMT on March 13, 2011    
Quoting RitaEvac:
If that stuff gets high enough into jet stream that would be the legit path of direction, but I know nothing about radiation or how high in atmoshphere it travels.



It is a fake. The Australian Radiation Services does NOT emit any maps like this.
Member Since: April 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 306
794. PcolaDan 12:51 AM GMT on March 13, 2011    
Quoting Ossqss:
It is truly incredible the number of 5.0 or higher quakes that have been registered in Japan over the last few days and continue unabated. I don't think I have ever viewed anything even remotely close. Look for yourself. This filters everything out but that size or larger. Amazing to think what it is like to be there when the ground shakes that hard, that often and over that long a period of time.......

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsw w/Quakes/quakes_big.php


I've been watching this. I can't begin to imagine how unnerving it must be to through almost two days of constantly feeling the earth shake underneath you. And not just a little either.
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6008
795. PcolaDan 12:53 AM GMT on March 13, 2011    
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Gee, the season hasn't started. Hate to get started with EGNORE and RE-PORT, BTW where did ignore go?


Still there next to quote on mine.
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6008
796. ShenValleyFlyFish 12:54 AM GMT on March 13, 2011    
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Gee, the season hasn't started. Hate to get started with EGNORE and RE-PORT, BTW where did ignore go?
my bad I found it
Member Since: September 9, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4684
797. WatchingThisOne 12:54 AM GMT on March 13, 2011    
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Best picture of containment building I have seen.




.
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 1249
799. nrtiwlnvragn 12:56 AM GMT on March 13, 2011    
Quoting beell:


Damage seems consistent with hydrogen (lighter than air)collecting in the top of the reactor shed until ignition.

Might be time to repost your link regarding "Australian Radiation Services", nrt!



Once somthing gets started on the internets....

Instead of ignition, the Tokyo Electric Power Company refers to it as "the explosive sound".
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 8941
801. Beachfoxx 12:58 AM GMT on March 13, 2011    
Regarding the Fallout Map - I've seen it on a couple of blogs all of which declare it a fake.
I don't know, but if you got to US NRC site it is not there.
Member Since: July 10, 2005 Posts: 153 Comments: 29285

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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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