Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Great Japan quake generates 8-foot tsunami in California

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 11:00 PM GMT on March 11, 2011

A great earthquake rocked the coast of Japan at 5:46 GMT on March 11, generating a dangerous tsunami that raced across the Pacific. The mighty earthquake was rated 8.9 on the Richter scale, making it the 7th most powerful tremor in world history. The world's 8th largest earthquake, a magnitude 8.8 event, hit Chile on February 27, 2010; never before have two top-ten earthquakes hit so close together in time. Today's quake was the strongest in Japanese history, and will likely be the most expensive natural disaster in world history, surpassing the $133+ billion dollar price tag from Hurricane Katrina.

Figure 1. Model-computed energy from the March 11, 2011 tsunami as visualized by the NOAA Visualization Lab.

In the U.S., the highest tsunami waves from the earthquake hit northern California and southern Oregon, with a wave height of 8.1 feet observed at Crescent City, CA, 8.6 feet at Port San Luis, CA, 8.7 feet at Arena Cove, CA, and 6.1 feet at Port Orford, OR. The tsunami swept four photographers out to sea in the Crescent City harbor, injuring three of them and leaving one missing. Extensive damage was done to the harbor and 35 boats. Up to $2 million in damage also occurred in the Santa Cruz harbor south of San Francisco.

Figure 2. Tide gauge at Crescent City, CA during the March 11, 2011 tsunami. The green line shows the height of the tsunami wave; the red line shows the observed water level. The highest tsunami wave came at at 17 UTC (9am PST), an hour and 10 minutes after the initial wave, and was 7 feet high. Image credit: NOAA.

Crescent City was hit by a devastating tsunami after the March 28, 1964 magnitude 8.8 earthquake in Alaska, which killed ten people in the city and destroyed much of the business district. The city is fortunate today that the tsunami hit at low tide, or else water levels would have been five feet higher in the city during the wave. The tide gauge at Crescent City, CA (Figure 2) shows that at least 18 separate tsunami waves have hit the harbor as of 2:45pm PST. The first wave came at about 15:50 UTC (7:50am PST), was about 2.5 feet high, and was not preceded by the ocean falling and water being sucked out to sea. After this initial wave, the ocean level dropped rapidly by 8 feet, and then a series of large waves began rushing in and out, with up to a 13 foot difference between low water and high water. The rapid speed of the in-rushing and outflowing waves were what did the damage to the harbor and its boats. The largest wave came at 17 UTC (9am PST), an hour and 10 minutes after the initial wave, and was 8.1 feet high. Fortunately, this wave came near the time of low tide, and the wave was only 2 feet above last night's high tide mark. Tidal range between low and high tide is about 5 feet at Crescent City. The tide is now rising, and new tsunami waves with height of 3 - 4 feet are still rushing in and out, with the one just before 21 UTC (1pm PST) reaching a height about 2 feet above high tide.

Figure 3. Propagation of the March 11, 2011 Honshu tsunami was computed with the NOAA forecast method using the MOST model with the tsunami source inferred from DART® data. From the NOAA Center for Tsunami Research, located at NOAA PMEL in Seattle, WA.

Portlight.org is mobilizing to provide financial assistance to people with disabilities affected by the disaster, and there will undoubtedly be a huge relief effort by numerous charities in the wake of the earthquake. Your financial contributions and prayers for those affected will be valuable.

Jeff Masters

Waves (Feather3)

During our tsunami warning that had been downgraded to an advisory, this afternoon. It was getting closer to high tide, but it was strange, watching the surges: one minute, the beach was bare, and within minutes, a surge would build up as wave after wave, low, but surging, would inundate the beaches....more shots to come.

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401. Neapolitan 1:35 PM GMT on March 12, 2011
Quoting HurrikanEB: Quick question. Was Katrina actually the worlds most expensive natural disaster? I wasn't aware. And was her price tag actually 133 Billion? I thought it was around 80 billion. I've heard the Kobe quake was the most expensive, coming in around $131 billion in 2011 dollars. Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 11158

402. aquak9 1:36 PM GMT on March 12, 2011
If a full meltdown had occured everyone would be abandoning the site, and you probably wouldn't have video from that range either. they will work no matter what, it's not like they can go take a power nap or a coffee break, it's not like the next shift is gonna come relieve them, how many hours can a human stay awake under these conditions not saying worst case scenario, no I am not saying that but how long can they go on until they collapse from fatigue Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25008

403. reedzone 1:37 PM GMT on March 12, 2011
Quoting P451: I'm not sure what would cause them to ignore it the way they did. It had everything to warrant classification. Winds. Closed circulation. Symmetric warm core. Convection. Well organized satellite presentations. I don't understand. I've seen them name far worse. That should have been classified. Similar feature last year in January warranted a name. I just don't get it, I know they are the experts and people need to stop telling me that. Look at the pics, images.. This was warm core yesterday morning. The NHC needs to stop playing games. Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7247

404. reedzone 1:38 PM GMT on March 12, 2011
Besides, they declared 92L a TD, yeah.. a swirl of clouds! LOL Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7247

405. WatchingThisOne 1:40 PM GMT on March 12, 2011
from msnbc.msn.com: BREAKING NEWS: Aftershock hits near stricken Fukushima nuke plant in Japan, local media reports Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 1249

408. aquak9 1:46 PM GMT on March 12, 2011
recordseason I KNOW THAT- I AM A CLINICAL HEMATOLOGIST WITH A STRONG BACKGROUND IN BIOCHEMISTRY AND GENETICS didja read my post? didja? my question was...how long can they last? Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25008

409. Neapolitan 1:47 PM GMT on March 12, 2011
Quoting reedzone: Similar feature last year in January warranted a name. I just don't get it, I know they are the experts and people need to stop telling me that. Look at the pics, images.. This was warm core yesterday morning. The NHC needs to stop playing games. But what "game" would they be playing, Reed? When it was declared an invest a few days ago, some claimed the NHC was dishonestly trying to bump up the number of storms for personal gain. Now--as with last year--others are saying they don't declare enough storms. I just wish someone would tell me which one it is. In the meantime, I choose to believe that, armed with oodles of knowledge and experience and the most high-tech tools imaginable, if something is classifiable, they will classify it. If not, they won't. Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 11158

410. Neapolitan 1:54 PM GMT on March 12, 2011
1320: Noriyuki Shikata, from Japanese PM's office tweets: "TEPCO's [Tokyo Electric Power Company] efforts to depressurize the container was successful. Additional measures are now taken tonight using sea water and boric acid. Blast was caused by accumulated hydrogen combined with oxygen in the space between container and outer structure. No damage to container." "Accumulated hydrogen", huh? Hmmm. Like everyone else, I've seen video of the Hindenburg burning at a very rapid rate, and it was full of the purest hydrogen. But still, it took 90 seconds to consume all the hydrogen onboard. It didn't explode and blow the envelope to smithereens, nor did it make a huge and visible overpressure wave. Not a very scientific analysis, I know. But, still, I'm not buying the Japanese government's explanation. For now... Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 11158

411. flsky 1:55 PM GMT on March 12, 2011
Quoting Neapolitan: 1305: The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) says Japanese authorities are making preparations to distribute iodine to residents in the area of both the Fukushima nuclear plants. The IAEA has reiterated its offer of technical assistance to Japan, should the government request this. 1254: Kyodo news has published photos of Rikuzentakata, where hundreds of people are feared dead. They show houses smashed to fragments - a scene of total devastation. 1252: Japan's Fuji TV has run a screen caption saying that as many as 10,000 people are missing in the town of Minamisanriku in Miyagi prefecture. This video is of the tsunami hitting Rikuzentakata: I wonder if that car seen driving to the right made it out before the water and debris hit. Member Since: October 24, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1276

412. AussieStorm 1:56 PM GMT on March 12, 2011
Quoting HurrikanEB: Quick question. Was Katrina actually the worlds most expensive natural disaster? I wasn't aware. And was her price tag actually 133 Billion? I thought it was around 80 billion. Wiki says Katrina was US$90.9B(2011), I have no idea where Dr. Masters got the figure of US$133B Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 5 Comments: 13347

413. aquak9 2:01 PM GMT on March 12, 2011
using sea water and boric acid. they'll never be able to get it running again...as I expected. Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25008

414. Neapolitan 2:03 PM GMT on March 12, 2011
The port town of Minamisanriku, where up to 10,000 are still missing, lies at the end of a long natural bay that is, unfortunately, aimed at the quake's epicenter. The topography would definitely serve to funnel and amplify any northwest-moving tsunami, easily swamping the sown...and that's exactly what appears to have happened. FWIW, there are other similar towns in the area, each of them sitting at the northwest terminus of a southeast-facing bay. I don't imagine the news from these areas will be good. Sendai is getting most of the headlines for now, which is to be expected; it's the most populous city on that part of the coast. But I dread hearing from the outlying areas. I've little doubt the overall monetary damage from the quake and resultant tsunami will put this into the top five globally, even with inflation factored in. The human toll will doubtless be in the many thousands as well... Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 11158

415. AussieStorm 2:04 PM GMT on March 12, 2011
Quoting aquak9: using sea water and boric acid. they'll never be able to get it running again...as I expected. With the damage it has sustained, it would of been decommissioned. The use of sea water and and boric acid is the final nail in its coffin. Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 5 Comments: 13347

416. guygee 2:05 PM GMT on March 12, 2011
Quoting Neapolitan: 1320: ..."Accumulated hydrogen", huh? Hmmm. Like everyone else, I've seen video of the Hindenburg burning at a very rapid rate, and it was full of the purest hydrogen. But still, it took 90 seconds to consume all the hydrogen onboard. It didn't explode and blow the envelope to smithereens, nor did it make a huge and visible overpressure wave. Not a very scientific analysis, I know. But, still, I'm not buying the Japanese government's explanation. For now... Just FYI...A fuel-air mixture bomb definitely creates a shock wave. The Hindenburg did not explode with a shock wave because there was not the proper mixture of hydrogen and oxygen to create the fuel-air type explosion. That is why your car has a carburetor or a fuel injector, to create the proper fuel-air mixture. Poor gasoline on your driveway and light a match, most likely it just burns. Spray some gasoline in the air in just the right amount and boom! Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 2830

417. Neapolitan 2:05 PM GMT on March 12, 2011
Quoting aquak9: using sea water and boric acid. they'll never be able to get it running again...as I expected. Yeah, that's definitely an admission that they're no longer trying to protect the plant's operational ability. Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 11158

418. guygee 2:06 PM GMT on March 12, 2011
-delete repeat- Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 2830

419. AussieStorm 2:06 PM GMT on March 12, 2011
Quoting Neapolitan: The port town of Minamisanriku, where up to 10,000 are still missing, lies at the end of a long natural bay that is, unfortunately, aimed at the quake's epicenter. The topography would definitely serve to funnel and amplify any northwest-moving tsunami, easily swamping the town...and that's exactly what appears to have happened. FWIW, there are other similar towns in the area, each of them sitting at the northwest terminus of a southeast-facing bay. I don't imagine the news from these areas will be good. Sendai is getting most of the headlines for now, which is to be expected; it's the most populous city on that part of the coast. But I dread hearing from the outlying areas. I've little doubt the overall monetary damage from the quake and resulting tsunami will put this into the top five globally, even with inflation factored in. The human toll will doubtless be in the many thousands as well... Agreed Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 5 Comments: 13347

421. aquak9 2:06 PM GMT on March 12, 2011
Spray some gasoline in the air in just the right amount and boom! errr...let's not use the word "boom" today, ok? :) Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25008

422. guygee 2:07 PM GMT on March 12, 2011
-delete- Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 2830

423. sunlinepr 2:07 PM GMT on March 12, 2011
CNN reporting 9,600 missing in one town... No way of giving a link now, but maybe later... Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 8447

424. Neapolitan 2:07 PM GMT on March 12, 2011
Quoting guygee: Just FYI...A fuel-air mixture bomb definitely creates a shock wave. The Hindenburg did not explode with a shock wave because there was not the proper mixture of hydrogen and oxygen to create the fuel-air type explosion. That is why your car has a carburetor or a fuel injector, to create the proper fuel-air mixture. Poor gasoline on your driveway and light a match, most likely it just burns. Spray some gasoline in the air in just the right amount and boom! Oh, I understand all about fuel-air explosions. But this nevertheless doesn't pass the smell test. I for one am not buying it. At least not yet. Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 11158

425. AussieStorm 2:14 PM GMT on March 12, 2011
Quoting sunlinepr: CNN reporting 9,600 missing in one town... No way of giving a link now, but maybe later... Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 5 Comments: 13347

426. PlazaRed 2:16 PM GMT on March 12, 2011
Quoting 410, They must be reading us for advice, I thought they would fill it with sea water at post 391, they have lots of it and probably not much of anything else. Nothing will 'never run again' but its also probably ruined anyway? Filling it with seawater is a last chance in the appalling circumstances they are operating in. I've worked in some big messes but I'm glad I don't have to comment on this one from the inside. The loss of face if they have to admit it got out of hand will be massive for them and there will be an enquiry but all will be blamed on the earthquake. To be fair if the quake hadn't happened then nobody would be analyzing all this. On a quake note, an earlier attachment showed what seems to be a very heavy quake bias to the ring of fire on the west,north,south side of the pacific, we have been discussing this and it seem a bit ominous!! Member Since: January 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1442

427. sunlinepr 2:16 PM GMT on March 12, 2011
Quoting AussieStorm: Thanks... Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 8447

428. Neapolitan 2:17 PM GMT on March 12, 2011
Just saw before/after images of Minamisanriku, and the damage is far worse than that seen in Sendai. The city proper has been swept clear of everything, save for a few very solid government buildings, one with obvious tsunami damage on maybe the fourth or fifth floor. Could the tsunami have been 40 or 50 feet high there? Sure looks like it... Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 11158

430. AussieStorm 2:17 PM GMT on March 12, 2011
Quake moved Japan coast 8 feet; shifted Earth's axis by nearly 4 inches (10 centimeters). Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 5 Comments: 13347

431. sunlinepr 2:20 PM GMT on March 12, 2011
The building blows away Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 8447

433. Xyrus2000 2:21 PM GMT on March 12, 2011
Quoting guygee: Just FYI...A fuel-air mixture bomb definitely creates a shock wave. The Hindenburg did not explode with a shock wave because there was not the proper mixture of hydrogen and oxygen to create the fuel-air type explosion. That is why your car has a carburetor or a fuel injector, to create the proper fuel-air mixture. Poor gasoline on your driveway and light a match, most likely it just burns. Spray some gasoline in the air in just the right amount and boom! Pro-tip: Don't paint your lighter-than-air craft with rocket fuel and fill it with a flammable gas. Member Since: October 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1016

434. AussieStorm 2:21 PM GMT on March 12, 2011
Top image is after the Tsunami abd bottom is before Click image for larger image Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 5 Comments: 13347

437. Ameister12 2:36 PM GMT on March 12, 2011
Has anyone heard about the town of Minamisanriku with more than half it's residents unaccounted for. About 19,000 people live there. It's just terrible. Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 9 Comments: 3518

438. PlazaRed 2:38 PM GMT on March 12, 2011
Quoting RecordSeason: Here's another balloon explosion. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k5MJhuaXUlc&NR =1 Again, we see a fireball. On the nuclear explosion at the reactor, we see no fireball. We see a mostly vertical shock wave explode through the roof of the building. I agree with you 100% on the no fireball thing, Ive watched it loads of times now. If you mix hydrogen and oxygen in the right proportions you only need to add a spark but you get a fire ball and there isn't one. So according to an earlier post they said''effots to depressurize the container were successful'' I think and only think but it fits the evidence that the top blew off it, rather like a big pressure cooker, IE it got de-pressurised and the escaping pressure caused the apparent explosion, its also interesting that the explosion doesn't keep spreading outwards after a short distance. Member Since: January 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1442

439. Xyrus2000 2:41 PM GMT on March 12, 2011
It's not a nuclear catastrophe. Yet. A nuclear catastrophe is when the smoke and air start "sparkling", indicating radioactive material is being spewed into the air. The explosion is most likely a steam explosion. And yes, steam explosion can produce shock waves. Steam explosions can and have destroyed buildings quite easily. Shock waves are nothing more than a rapid increase in pressure over a short period of time. They can be cause by ANY pressurized vessel that suddenly gives way. Even popping a balloon creates a minuscule shock wave. Member Since: October 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1016

440. MrMixon 2:42 PM GMT on March 12, 2011
If you replay the zoomed in portion of the video (right around 25 seconds) and watch closely there is a single frame in which an orange flame is visible. Granted, it's not exactly a "fireball" like you expect from a massive hydrogen explosion... but there is definitely combustion evident in the video. Quoting PlazaRed: I agree with you 100% on the no fireball thing, Ive watched it loads of times now. If you mix hydrogen and oxygen in the right proportions you only need to add a spark but you get a fire ball and there isn't one. Member Since: March 26, 2006 Posts: 38 Comments: 969

441. CybrTeddy 2:43 PM GMT on March 12, 2011
JAXA's Mission Control Center for operations at the International Space Station got trashed in the quake.. (photos from spaceflightnow) Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20251

442. emcf30 2:44 PM GMT on March 12, 2011
According to FOX News, for what it is worth, they just stated the according to authorities, the core is now partically exposed but radiationlevels in the area are going down. How can this be? Member Since: August 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1926

443. AussieStorm 2:45 PM GMT on March 12, 2011
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 5 Comments: 13347

445. AussieStorm 3:00 PM GMT on March 12, 2011
Night all, Stay safe, say a few prayers for the people of Japan. Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 5 Comments: 13347

446. HadesGodWyvern 3:03 PM GMT on March 12, 2011
RSMC Reunion Tropical Cyclone Outlook 16:00 PM RST March 12 2011 ============================================= East of 90E, north-west of Cocos Islands, convective activity remains fluctuating and loosely organized, but available NWP models analyze a broad low level circulation at the convergence between monsoon and trade winds inflows, centered near 10S 95E. Minimal estimated sea level pressure is 1005hPa. At the present time, upper level wind shear is moderate and is unfavorable for the development of this zone of disturbed weather. For the next 72 hours, NWP models are in good agreement for a track south-westward to westward and for a slow deepening of this LLCC. It should enter our area of responsibility on Monday. For the next 36 hours, there is no potential for the development of a tropical depression. Beyond, potential becomes poor to fair at the extreme East of the basin. Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 36686

447. Neapolitan 3:06 PM GMT on March 12, 2011
1459: At least three residents evacuated from a town near quake-hit Fukushima No. 1 plant have been exposed to radiation, both Kyodo and NHK report I've been listening to many "experts" on the matter over the last several hours, and none of them are quite willing to give the Japanese government the full benefit of the doubt. The consensus, such as it is, seems to be that a) the government hasn't been as forthcoming as they might, and b) until they can see evidence of exactly what comprised the explosion, they're not willing to say it was hydrogen/oxygen. Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 11158

448. PlazaRed 3:07 PM GMT on March 12, 2011
Quoting emcf30: According to FOX News, for what it is worth, they just stated the according to authorities, the core is now partically exposed but radiationlevels in the area are going down. How can this be? If they blew the top off it, or an hole in the containment vessel, with explosive bolts or similar, then that would explain the brief 'orange flash' in the video. Then they can pump in massive amounts of sea water and this will lower the temperature plus radiation levels by diluting the amount of radiation with the water. We need a nuclear physicist on this one. Member Since: January 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1442

449. Neapolitan 3:12 PM GMT on March 12, 2011
. Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 11158

450. SafeInTexas 3:13 PM GMT on March 12, 2011
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hydrogen#Combustion "Pure hydrogen-oxygen flames emit ultraviolet light and are nearly invisible to the naked eye, as illustrated by the faint plume of the Space Shuttle main engine compared to the highly visible plume of a Space Shuttle Solid Rocket Booster. The detection of a burning hydrogen leak may require a flame detector; such leaks can be very dangerous." Visible flames in a hydrogen explosion are generally caused by the burning of other materials. Member Since: September 19, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 57

451. Thundercloud01221991 3:20 PM GMT on March 12, 2011
and you are telling me that this is not a meltdown? Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3670

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