Radiation from Japan not likely to harm North America

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:53 PM GMT on March 14, 2011

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Radiation from Japan's stricken Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant has been detected 100 miles to the northeast, over the Pacific Ocean, by the U.S. military. Westerly to southwesterly winds have predominated over Japan the past few days, carrying most of the radiation eastwards out to sea. The latest forecast for Sendai, Japan, located about 40 miles north of the Fukushima nuclear plant, calls for winds with a westerly component to dominate for the remainder of the week, with the exception of a 6-hour period on Tuesday. Thus, any radiation released by the nuclear plant will primarily affect Japan or blow out to sea. A good tool to predict the radiation cloud's path is NOAA's HYSPLIT trajectory model. The model uses the GFS model's winds to track the movement of a hypothetical release of a substance into the atmosphere. One can specify the altitude of the release as well as the location, and follow the trajectory for up to two weeks. However, given the highly chaotic nature of the atmosphere's winds, trajectories beyond about 3 days have huge uncertainties.One can get only a general idea of where a plume is headed beyond 3 days. I've been performing a number of runs of HYSPLIT over past few days, and so far great majority of these runs have taken plumes of radioactivity emitted from Japan's east coast eastwards over the Pacific, with the plumes staying over water for at least 5 days. Some of the plumes move over eastern Siberia, Alaska, Canada, the U.S., and Mexico in 5 - 7 days. Such a long time spent over water will mean that the vast majority of the radioactive particles will settle out of the atmosphere or get caught up in precipitation and rained out. It is highly unlikely that any radiation capable of causing harm to people will be left in atmosphere after seven days and 2000+ miles of travel distance. Even the Chernobyl nuclear disaster, which had a far more serious release of radioactivity, was unable to spread significant contamination more than about 1000 miles.


Figure 1. Forecast 7-day movement of a plume of radioactive plume of air emitted at 12 UTC Saturday, March 12, 2011 from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant. Radioactivity emitted at 2 levels is tracked: 100 meters (red) and 300 meters (blue). Images created using NOAA's HYSPLIT trajectory model.


Figure 2. Forecast 7-day movement of a plume of radioactive plume of air emitted at 12 UTC Sunday, March 13, 2011 from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant. Radioactivity emitted at 2 levels is tracked: 100 meters (red) and 300 meters (blue). Images created using NOAA's HYSPLIT trajectory model.


Figure 3. Forecast 7-day movement of a plume of radioactive plume of air emitted at 12 UTC Monday, March 14, 2011 from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant. Radioactivity emitted at 2 levels is tracked: 100 meters (red) and 300 meters (blue). Images created using NOAA's HYSPLIT trajectory model.

I'll have an update Tuesday morning.

Jeff Masters

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860. aspectre
3:47 PM GMT on March 15, 2011
I thought this was rather interesting

The recent 6.0magnitude quake was ~76miles/~122kilometres (nearly due)east of the Fukushima Daiichi(#1) and Daini(#2) nuclear powerplant sites.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
859. Patrap
3:33 PM GMT on March 15, 2011
Fresca Time,,

enjoy a new Blog Entry from Dr. Masters,,this one is now archived.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125717
858. srada
3:31 PM GMT on March 15, 2011
Quoting RecordSeason:


"organizing" does not mean they are going to be immediately successful. This is going to take several days or a week or so.


Well at least they are trying..to sit back and not do anything would be condemning those people..I mean to tell people to stay at home and dont come outside is ridiculous,they dont have provisions or electricity so how could they survive in their own homes for who even knows how long..it should be a mandatory evacuation where the govt is assisting in traveling and shelter..
Member Since: August 17, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 772
857. Patrap
3:30 PM GMT on March 15, 2011
Libya evacuation: China evacuates 12,000 nationals via naval frigate


Royston Chan and Tom Miles, Reuters / February 25, 2011

China has evacuated 12,000, or about one third, of its citizens from turmoil in Libya, many of them workers for Chinese-run projects in the oil-rich nation, official media said on Friday.
Skip to next paragraph
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The mass evacuation, supported by a Chinese naval frigate, is the latest test for a government that has encouraged firms to seek business across the developing world, often in conditions considered too difficult or poorly paid for Western firms.

Relieved workers arrived on a charter flight to Shanghai on Thursday. Some told Reuters they had been working at a university construction site in the eastern city of Tobruk that was attacked by armed looters.

IN PICTURES: Libya uprising

Local staff told them to leave the increasingly dangerous conflict pitting opposition forces against long-time leader Muammar Gaddafi.

"We were lucky because we managed to rent eleven cars and all 83 of us got in with our luggage. Then we made our way to the Egyptian border," said 33-year-old construction worker Mao Yanjun.

China's Ministry of Commerce has said 75 Chinese companies have operations in Libya, including the state-owned energy giant CNPC, parent company of PetroChina Co Ltd (0857.HK)(601857.SS).

"China has suffered large-scale direct economic losses in Libya, including looted work sites, burned and destroyed vehicles and tools, smashed office equipment and stolen cash," the ministry said in a statement on Thursday.

ROBBED BY GANGS

The statement said some Chinese had been injured but there were no reports of deaths.

Zhong Chenyun, a manager at Sinohydro, said he and his colleagues had been stranded and robbed.

"All I have left is what I am wearing. My personal and company goods that I brought to Libya were all robbed by gangs with weapons. Our safety could not be guaranteed," he said.

Nearly 1,000 Chinese crossed over into Tunisia on Wednesday, and a Maltese ship capable of carrying more than 2,000 people arrived to evacuate Chinese nationals from the port of Benghazi on Thursday. It is expected in Malta later on Friday, the state-run Xinhua news agency said.

In 2010, Chinese trade with Libya was worth $6.6 billion, a rise of 27 percent on 2009.

Vietnam said it had evacuated about 1,300 of its citizens from Libya out of 10,482 living and working there.

Vietnamese in unaffected areas of Libya would "try to continue to work and remain where they are", the state-run Vietnam News quoted the Minister of Labour, Invalids and Social Affairs on Friday as saying.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125717
856. DentalPainDMD
3:28 PM GMT on March 15, 2011
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
name a country that would let that many people just come into there borders


The US, see US/Mexico border
Member Since: May 30, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 39
855. Patrap
3:26 PM GMT on March 15, 2011
China got All its folks out of Libya last week and sent a Naval Frigate into the Med for the First time "ever" offshore while they flew all of them out.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125717
853. srada
3:24 PM GMT on March 15, 2011
Quoting Skyepony:
#
1422: China is organising a mass evacuation of its citizens from north-east Japan, the Associated Press reports. The Chinese embassy said it was sending buses to collect its nationals from Miyagi, Fukushima, Ibaraki and Iwate prefectures, "due to the seriousness of and uncertainty surrounding the accident at the Fukushima nuclear plant at present".


See, I suggested last night that the Japanese govt do the same and was told the roads were impassable..evidently they arent if the Chinese are getting their citizens out of harm ways..kinda reminds me of katrina..if people dont have the means to leave, then they wont..
Member Since: August 17, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 772
852. Patrap
3:22 PM GMT on March 15, 2011
U.S. Forces Offer Relief to Japan
Department of Defense Photo Essay


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125717
851. jeffs713
3:22 PM GMT on March 15, 2011
846 & 847 - LOL.
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5793
850. NRAamy
3:20 PM GMT on March 15, 2011
835. SQUAWK 3:08 PM GMT on March 15, 2011
BOY AND GIRLS!! LADIES AND GENTLEMAN!!!! FELLOW BLOGGERS!!!

When are you going to figure it out? Floridaheat is a troll just trying to push your buttons and it is working.



I guess I'm smarter than the average bear... I figured that one out awhile ago.... eh BooBoo?

;)
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 316 Comments: 31944
849. aquak9
3:20 PM GMT on March 15, 2011
thanks skye, for the updates
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25514
848. Patrap
3:19 PM GMT on March 15, 2011
U.S. Air Force Staff Sgt. Chase Neufeld inspects humanitarian relief cargo on Yokota Air Base, Japan, March 14, 2011. Neufeld is assigned to the 374th Logistics Readiness Squadron. U.S. Air Force photo by Osakabe Yasuo


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125717
847. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
3:19 PM GMT on March 15, 2011
opps i mean FloridaHeat
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52391
846. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
3:18 PM GMT on March 15, 2011
Quoting FloridaHeat:


I wish community college would do that because I did not know it would be so hard. I tried it for one semester but did not pass most of my classes.
sorry to hear that JFV
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52391
844. Patrap
3:17 PM GMT on March 15, 2011
The U2 has been Busy with Hi Alt Fights


U.S. Air Force Tech. Sgt. Vontez Morrow preps U-2 pilot U.S. Air Force Capt. Beau Block for a humanitarian mission to Japan from Osan Air Base, South Korea, March 13, 2011. U.S. Air Force photo by Senior Master Sgt. Paul Holcomb

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125717
843. Skyepony (Mod)
3:16 PM GMT on March 15, 2011
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:


where are you getting these reports?



Link
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36173
842. Skyepony (Mod)
3:15 PM GMT on March 15, 2011
#
1422: China is organising a mass evacuation of its citizens from north-east Japan, the Associated Press reports. The Chinese embassy said it was sending buses to collect its nationals from Miyagi, Fukushima, Ibaraki and Iwate prefectures, "due to the seriousness of and uncertainty surrounding the accident at the Fukushima nuclear plant at present".
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36173
841. Patrap
3:15 PM GMT on March 15, 2011
03/14/2011
DAMAGE ASSESSMENT

A joint U.S. Air Force and U.S. Marine Corps search and rescue team look over the earthquake damage on Sendai Airport near Yokota Air Base, Japan, March 13, 2011. The team is part of the U.S. military’s disaster relief efforts in the wake of a massive earthquake and tsunami that struck Japan just days before. U.S. Air Force photo by Staff Sgt. Samuel Morse

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125717
840. Thundercloud01221991
3:14 PM GMT on March 15, 2011
Quoting Skyepony:
#
1430: The US Navy says more of its personnel are testing positive for low-level radiation, but its relief efforts will continue, Reuters reports.


where are you getting these reports?
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
839. Skyepony (Mod)
3:13 PM GMT on March 15, 2011
#
1430: The US Navy says more of its personnel are testing positive for low-level radiation, but its relief efforts will continue, Reuters reports.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36173
838. Patrap
3:10 PM GMT on March 15, 2011
Hurricane Preparation 2011

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125717
837. Skyepony (Mod)
3:10 PM GMT on March 15, 2011
#
1456: Tepco says it may start pouring water from a helicopter over Fukushima Daiichi's reactor four in the next few days, to cool the spent-fuel pool.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36173
836. FloridaHeat
3:10 PM GMT on March 15, 2011
Quoting SQUAWK:
BOY AND GIRLS!! LADIES AND GENTLEMAN!!!! FELLOW BLOGGERS!!!

When are you going to figure it out? Floridaheat is a troll just trying to push your buttons and it is working.


Not very nice. I am going to just stop posting if you are going to be so mean.
Member Since: July 31, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 357
834. aspectre
3:08 PM GMT on March 15, 2011
That recent 6.1magnitude quake (epicenter only 1kilometre/0.62miles below the surface) hit somewhere between 10miles and 20kilometres west of MountFuji, a generally recognized symbol of Japan.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
833. Skyepony (Mod)
3:08 PM GMT on March 15, 2011
Situation Update No. 2
On 14.03.2011 at 18:26 GMT+2

Japan's Shinmoedake volcano erupted on Sunday, adding to the crisis in the country. It was unclear if the eruptions were linked to earthquake, but caused panic near the mountain. The volcano is in Southern Japan about 950 miles from the epicenter of Friday's magnitude-9.0 earthquake. According to the Christian Science Monitor, local media reports "said boulders had landed on roads some distance from the 4,662-foot peak, while one woman was reportedly cut by broken glass" after the eruption." The volcano had been mostly dormant for two years except for a brief eruption on Jan. 19. “The eruption process is quite similar to the eruptions [of 1716 and1717], so more violent eruptions could take place,” Ryusuke Imura, an associate professor at Kagoshima University and expert on volcanic topography, told the Yomiuri newspaper. Eruptions and quakes are common in Japan's "ring of fire," however this was the first major seismic activity on this mountain in 52 years.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36173
832. caneswatch
3:08 PM GMT on March 15, 2011
Quoting aquak9:
FlaHeat- think about it. You simply can't get enough fuel into a place, to evacuate that many people. You'd use up all the fuel, to get the fuel there.

Airplanes take fuel. So do trains and ships. It can't be done. You could evac, day and night, night and day, and it simply could not be done.


Exactly. Try evacuating 2 million people (which was at the time the largest peacetime evacuation in U.S. history because of the approach of Hurricane Frances). It took exactly 24 hours to get from where I live (Royal Palm Beach, FL) to the Florida/Georgia border via I-95. You can't do it.
Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4553
831. FloridaHeat
3:07 PM GMT on March 15, 2011
Quoting TampaSpin:
Just think if our Attorney General would lower the scale for High School kids, no one would flunk out and we would have 100% graduation rates.


I wish community college would do that because I did not know it would be so hard. I tried it for one semester but did not pass most of my classes.
Member Since: July 31, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 357
829. Neapolitan
3:06 PM GMT on March 15, 2011
Kyodo: Magnitude of Shizuoka quake revised upward to 6.4 from 6.0.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13306
828. hydrus
3:05 PM GMT on March 15, 2011
Quoting Grothar:


There is a river which flows through Ft. Lauderdale called the New River. There is now evidence that it was created by an earthquake, which split the land open. I am looking into further since it is only a few blocks from our home.
Florida does have the occasional earthquake. The south half of Florida can be effected by quakes centered near Cuba, while the northern half can feel quakes that originate in the Atlantic..Here is one..1880 Cuba earthquake and the main fault that caused it...1880 Cuba earthquake 1880012300001880-01-23
04:39 San Cristóbal/Vuelta Abajo (Pinar del Río) [15] [16][1] 6.0 VIII 15 km A series of severe shock waves originating from western Cuba were also felt in the town of Key West (Florida), and included a strong earthquake on 23 January 1880 in San Cristóbal, Pinar del Río at 4 a.m.[16]
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19607
827. TampaSpin
3:05 PM GMT on March 15, 2011
Just think if our Attorney General would lower the scale for High School kids, no one would flunk out and we would have 100% graduation rates.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
826. FloridaHeat
3:04 PM GMT on March 15, 2011
Quoting jeffs713:
816. Maybe if you got an A, you would already know some of the information we're telling you.

Not to mention... don't you have to bag some groceries at Publix? The first few days you were on here, your questions/comments were amusing. Now, they are getting so "out there" to be completely asinine and imbecilic.


I am sorry that I cannot be as smart as you all but I do try. I am just a community college flunk out and yes a bagger at Publix. I am kind to my fellow man and that is what is important.
Member Since: July 31, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 357
825. TampaSpin
3:02 PM GMT on March 15, 2011
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
name a country that would let that many people just come into there borders


The United States........we have no Border Control already.............but, gotta say the Japanesse people are some of the best people with honor and just great culture!
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
824. jeffs713
3:01 PM GMT on March 15, 2011
816. Maybe if you got an A, you would already know some of the information we're telling you.

Not to mention... don't you have to bag some groceries at Publix? The first few days you were on here, your questions/comments were amusing. Now, they are getting so "out there" to be completely asinine and imbecilic.
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5793
823. FloridaHeat
3:01 PM GMT on March 15, 2011
Quoting Patrap:
Phunny all the murders after Katrina were done by Police Officers,,as I know of no other K related murders that were tried here.

And for fact LA erupted into Chaos after a Trial Verdict and well,on clear summer day.

AKA Rodney King.

So stick with the facts and you wont look like such Phools.

Sentencing delay sought in Danziger Bridge shooting
Published: Thursday, December 30, 2010, 12:48 Associated Press By The Associated Press




Thankful that the Japanese are not like Americans because the disaster would be worse.
Member Since: July 31, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 357
822. Patrap
2:59 PM GMT on March 15, 2011
Phunny all the murders after Katrina were done by Police Officers,,as I know of no other K related murders that were tried here.

And for fact LA erupted into Chaos after a Trial Verdict and well,on clear summer day.

AKA Rodney King.

So stick with the facts and you wont look like such Phools.

Sentencing delay sought in Danziger Bridge shooting
Published: Thursday, December 30, 2010, 12:48 Associated Press By The Associated Press


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125717
821. TampaSpin
2:58 PM GMT on March 15, 2011
Quoting FloridaHeat:


Yes but the majority of the people are not in the mountain areas. Most are in the flat areas near the coast such as Tokyo.


Evacute no, but are they in danger yes......i don't see radation as a threat tho.....just quakes and what comes with it.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
820. aquak9
2:58 PM GMT on March 15, 2011
FlaHeat- think about it. You simply can't get enough fuel into a place, to evacuate that many people. You'd use up all the fuel, to get the fuel there.

Airplanes take fuel. So do trains and ships. It can't be done. You could evac, day and night, night and day, and it simply could not be done.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25514
819. FloridaHeat
2:57 PM GMT on March 15, 2011
Quoting HIPPOCRITT:
Quoting FloridaHeat:
Troll, *ignored*


That was rude.
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817. Thundercloud01221991
2:55 PM GMT on March 15, 2011
name a country that would let that many people just come into there borders
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
816. FloridaHeat
2:54 PM GMT on March 15, 2011
Quoting fireflymom:
This is not a flat low country, many highlands and mountainous regions, perhaps your geography studies need updating.


I also got a C+ in geography in high school!
Member Since: July 31, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 357
815. FloridaHeat
2:53 PM GMT on March 15, 2011
Quoting fireflymom:
This is not a flat low country, many highlands and mountainous regions, perhaps your geography studies need updating.


Yes but the majority of the people are not in the mountain areas. Most are in the flat areas near the coast such as Tokyo.
Member Since: July 31, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 357
814. FloridaHeat
2:51 PM GMT on March 15, 2011
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:



why do you think that China would allow 120 million people into there country when they already have billions of people


It is that or let up to 120 million people die from radiation, earthquakes and tsunamis!
Member Since: July 31, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 357
813. fireflymom
2:51 PM GMT on March 15, 2011
Quoting FloridaHeat:


They need to evacuate to China immediately. We saw the earthquake lowered regions of the country by several feet. What if an aftershock or another quake lowers the whole country by several feet.
This is not a flat low country, many highlands and mountainous regions, perhaps your geography studies need updating.
Member Since: June 5, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 575
812. Grothar
2:51 PM GMT on March 15, 2011
Quoting aquak9:
gro- the poor little poptarts had crumbled while still inside their little wrappers. They had been intact when I bought'm...

then I started hanging nickels taped to dental floss around the house, so I'd KNOW if it was really an aftershock, or if I was imagining it.

yeah an earthquake will make you crazy, esp if you're from Florida.


There is a river which flows through Ft. Lauderdale called the New River. There is now evidence that it was created by an earthquake, which split the land open. I am looking into further since it is only a few blocks from our home.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 64 Comments: 23750
811. Thundercloud01221991
2:49 PM GMT on March 15, 2011
Quoting FloridaHeat:


They need to evacuate to China immediately. We saw the earthquake lowered regions of the country by several feet. What if an aftershock or another quake lowers the whole country by several feet.



why do you think that China would allow 120 million people into there country when they already have billions of people

no country on earth would allow that type of evacuation to come to there country. I would say that 5-6 countries could open there door for children of:

1. Areas hardest hit by the tsunami
2. Areas of greatest threat from Radiation
3. Children who lost both parents
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.