Spring snowstorm adds to flooding potential for the Midwest
A major spring snowstorm dumped heavy snow in excess of six inches over a wide swath of the Upper Midwest this week, adding to a snowpack that is already near or in excess of record levels over Minnesota, North Dakota, and South Dakota. This is bad news for residents in flood-prone areas of the Upper Midwest, as the new storm added more than half an inch of melted rainfall equivalent to the record wet snowpack. When all that snow melts in April, we can expect major and possibly record flooding for North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, and the Upper Mississippi River north of St. Louis, according to the National Weather Service (NWS). Their March Spring Flood Outlook released last week warned: A large swath of the North Central United States is at risk of moderate to major flooding this spring. Heavy late summer and autumn precipitation have left soils saturated and streams running high before the winter freeze-up. National Weather Service models show this year's snowpack contains a water content ranked among the highest of the last 60 years, which is similar to the past two years. This threat area extends from northeastern Montana through Wisconsin and along the Mississippi River south to St. Louis. For the third consecutive year, forecasters predict major flooding along the Red River of the North, which forms the state line between eastern North Dakota and northwest Minnesota. Other areas of the Midwest primed for major flooding include Devils Lake in North Dakota, the Milk River in Northeastern Montana, the James and Big Sioux Rivers in South Dakota, the Minnesota River, and the Mississippi River from its headwaters near St. Paul, Minnesota, downstream to St. Louis.
Figure 1. U.S. spring 2011 flood risk. Image credit: NWS.
Figure 2. NOAA's latest significant river flood outlook shows that spring flooding is already occurring over South Dakota and on the Mississippi River near its junction with the Ohio River, but is not yet widespread across the Upper Midwest.
There is a huge amount of snow on the ground in North Dakota along the tributaries of the Red River, thanks to fall precipitation that was 150% - 300% of normal, and winter snows that have dumped up to 400% more precipitation than usual. If one were to melt this snow, it would amount to 4 - 6 inches of rain. If heavy rains occur at the same time that the snow melts, there is the potential for the greatest flood in history to affect the cities of Fargo and Grand Forks, the largest and third largest cities in North Dakota. NWS is giving a 35% chance that Fargo will see its greatest flood in history this spring, up from the 20% chance they gave in their February spring flood outlook.
The situation is similar in Minnesota, which has received about double its normal precipitation over the past 3 to 4 months, resulting in the 5th snowiest winter on record in Minneapolis. Snow depths are in excess of 20 inches over wide swaths of of the state, and this snow has a very high water content equivalent to 4 - 6 inches of rain. NWS is giving a 95% chance that the Mississippi River at St. Paul will exceed major flood stage this spring.
In South Dakota, heavy snows this winter have also left a snowpack with a high water content over the northeast corner of the state. The NWS is predicting a 25% chance that the the James River at Huron, SD will reach its highest flood height in history, and a 50% chance for the Big Sioux River at Brookings, SD.
Figure 3. The snow water equivalent of the Upper Midwest's snowpack as of March 24, 2011. Large sections of Minnesota and North Dakota have the equivalent of 3.9 - 5.9 inches of rain (purple colors) stored in their snowpack. Image credit: NWS/NOHRSC.
When will all this flooding occur?
The latest guidance from the GFS model predicts winter-like conditions will persist over the Upper Midwest for the next week, with no major storms for the region through early next week. Late next week, there is the potential for a snowstorm that could bring an additional 0.5 - 1" of melted equivalent snow, though this is very uncertain at this point. The first chance of a major thaw will not occur until Sunday, April 3. This will give some time for the current pulse of flood waters generated during last week's warm spell over South Dakota and southern Minnesota to move downstream, and makes the peak of this year's spring flood unlikely to occur until at least the second week of April. Looking back at past great floods in the Upper Midwest, the record 2009 Red River flood peaked on March 28 in Fargo. The great 1997 Red River flood that devastated Grand Forks, causing $3.5 billion in damage, crested on April 18. St. Paul's greatest flood in history crested on April 19, 1965. I expect this year's peak flood will most likely arrive during the 3rd week of April.
Mostly offshore winds expected over Japan for the next week
Radioactive plumes emitted from Japan's troubled Fukushima nuclear power plant will mostly head eastwards out to sea over the next week, thanks to high pressure that will dominate Japan's weather. Latest trajectory plots using NOAA's HYSPLIT model do not show air from the Fukushima plant heading towards Tokyo over the next four days.
Jeff Masters
10 inches of snow today. Not good if you're a robin.
Reader Comments
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I see. You're specifically referring to the effects on Japan. I thought you were talking about the nonsense here. My bad.
In the US, nuclear power is HEAVILY regulated to the point where hardly anyone is willing to build a nuclear plant (let alone nuclear research) due to the expense. It's a government controlled entity. Same with France and multiple other countries.
Japan is a bit different. TEPCO is a company that has been reprimanded on several occasions for not adhering to standards. Cheaper that way. And since they weren't any real penalties they didn't care much. And why spend millions on safety improvements on plants when Nothing Bad Will Happen(tm). Why upgrade plants to safer designs when it's cheaper to just leave things the way they are?
Nuclear power is safe AND clean. Even wind power causes more deaths per year. But you can't be half-a$$ about it, and you certainly can't leave it in the hands of for-profit corporations willing to cut corners and ignore warnings to keep their bottom line intact.
TEPCO thought they could do that. They were wrong. It's quite likely that after this the Japanese government will step in with a much heavier hand, and TEPCO will take a pretty significant hit. They may even be removed from the chain entirely (they should be).
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/mar/27/angel a-merkel-baden-wurttemberg-elections
Link
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN LAURENS COUNTY IN CENTRAL GEORGIA
JOHNSON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA
Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO) announced that the data on the high concentration of radioactive iodine 134, which was published this morning, was found to be wrong. They will announce the new data later. The previous data, experts pointed out, suggests that the core is critical.
That QPF map doesn't really make any sense to me, the reason why is all the models show the heaviest convection over Central Florida as well as the front stalling in Central Florida. I also think a QPF of 3.5 inches widespread my be overdoing it a bit considering this is the driest time of year, but widespread amounts of 1 to 2 inches seems more reasonable. However, because of very high moisture content and intense convection, isolated much heavier amounts could exist.
Nea, an opinion poll in my country, held thursday and friday, showed 75% of the people were convinced that they were downplaying.
In the US, nuclear power is HEAVILY regulated . . .
: So was the oil drilling industry if you listened to those promoting off-shore-drilling.
in my small country we have only 1 nuclear reactor. Since 1980 there have been 372 incidents, including loss of electricity which caused loss of the systems cooling as well as the emergency-cooling. When both cooling-systems were down the diesel-driven-cooling was overheated and went down also. Only an emergency powerline to an old coal plant saved us then.
"In the US, nuclear power is HEAVILY regulated to the point where hardly anyone is willing to build a nuclear plant (let alone nuclear research) due to the expense. It's a government controlled entity. Same with France and multiple other countries."
I live in the Netherlands, this nuclear facility is not privately owned. But these things happen you know.
And saying that more people die of wind power is really BS. You should look up what Chernobyl caused.
And then you should realise that WHO (World Health Organisation) can't come up with the numbers they really found because of an agreement with the UN, especially the IAEA.
www.solarham.com
23:22 UTC Friday and was followed by what looks to be a C-Class flare early on Saturday which produced a small CME as seen in the latest Lasco C2 movie.
The visible solar disk consists of Sunspots 1176, 1177, 1178, 1180 and 1181. The most active region 1176 may still produce another M-Class flare.
Sunspots (Saturday)
That map from the HPC is good for now, maybe narrowing that region of highest QPF just a bit. Looking at the latest and previous runs of the GFS as well as the GEFS, they have been showing a large region between 3-4 inches around the Gulf Coast region from Louisiana to the Big Bend region of Florida where the dynamics will be the best. The axis of heaviest precip lies around the I-10 corridor of those aforementioned areas.
2005: 31% Capable of TC; 3rd Place
2008: 16% Capable of TC; 4th Place
2007: 35% Capable of TC; 2nd Place
2010: 4% Capable of TC; 5th Place
2011: 37% Capable of TC; 1st Place
So Currently 2011 is in the lead with 37% of the Gulf 26 C or more, The Bay of Campeche is beginning to warm as well as Florida; East and West Coast.
Yep its 87 at my place!
Well its 91 at Orlando International but I bet local temps are higher, 90s in March, that's pretty crazy! The forecast for Orlando when you click on it is 87, LOL so much for that.
The forecast for my place was 82 today on the west side of state but even here it has reached 87!
I love this weather though!
Yeah, I'm just playing it as a wait and see, there isn't a lot of confidence in this forecast as I'm sure you're aware of. So I wouldn't bet on anything.
Keep in mind though, that's referring to some areas. With PW's getting up around 2.00 inches and steep lapse rates, there's gonna be very intense rainfall as there is always is in Florida. But remember rainfall down here in Florida is not usually uniform or predictable like it is up North. Up north you typically get large swaths of stratiform rain that produce even distribution of rain. Even convection up there takes on a similar form with elevated convection generally producing fairly uniform coverage.
However here in Florida you'll have some areas get 2 or 3, while others get very little. Which averages around 1 inch distributed QPF. Now that's not always the case, that's just a general example, obviously weather is more variable than that, but you get the picture.
I am expecting some pretty impressive storm coverage tomorrow though.
1.5" total. Monday through Thursday.
1.5in-2in
Weather Station
Bethune Beach, New Smyrna Beach
Elevation
35 ft Station Select Now
93.3 °FFeels Like 89 °F Mostly Cloudy
BY YURI KAGEYAMA and MARI YAMAGUCHI, Associated Press Yuri Kageyama And Mari Yamaguchi, Associated Press – 1 hr 43 mins ago
TOKYO – Mounting problems, including badly miscalculated radiation figures and inadequate storage tanks for huge amounts of contaminated water, stymied emergency workers Sunday as they struggled to nudge Japan's stricken nuclear complex back from the edge of disaster.
Workers are attempting to remove the radioactive water from the tsunami-ravaged nuclear compound and restart the regular cooling systems for the dangerously hot fuel.
The day began with company officials reporting that radiation in leaking water in the Unit 2 reactor was 10 million times above normal, a spike that forced employees to flee the unit. The day ended with officials saying the huge figure had been miscalculated and offering apologies.
"The number is not credible," said Tokyo Electric Power Co. spokesman Takashi Kurita. "We are very sorry."
A few hours later, TEPCO Vice President Sakae Muto said a new test had found radiation levels 100,000 times above normal — far better than the first results, though still very high.
But he ruled out having an independent monitor oversee the various checks despite the errors.
Link
* at 407 PM EDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated
severe thunderstorms... along a line extending from I-16/I-95
interchange to 11 miles west of Ellabell... moving southeast at 35
mph.
Prepare now for the following hazards...
damaging winds in excess of 60 mph...
half dollar size hail...
* some locations in the warning include...
I-16/I-95 interchange... Pooler... Garden City... Flemington... Windsor
Forest... White Bluff... Richmond Hill...
Precautionary/preparedness actions...
Report hail... downed trees... limbs... and power lines directly to the
Charleston National Weather Service at 1-888-383-2024.
Lat... Lon 3212 8172 3211 8151 3223 8144 3221 8110
3181 8113 3183 8136 3188 8174
time... Mot... loc 2012z 302deg 32kt 3206 8122 3204 8162
Goodnight.
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