Dozens of tornadoes and dangerous severe thunderstorms tore through the Southeast U.S. on Friday, bringing a second day of severe weather havoc to the nation. The death toll from the two-day severe blitz now stands at seventeen, with up to 100 people injured and tens of millions of dollars in property damage. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center logged 98 tornado reports yesterday, bringing the two-day total for the outbreak to 120 tornadoes. These preliminary reports are usually a 15% over-count of the actual number of tornadoes, which still means over 100 tornadoes have probably touched down during the past two days. The deadliest tornado of the outbreak hit near Prattville, Alabama at 10:55pm CDT last night, killing three people in a mobile home, and injuring four others. One of the most damaging tornadoes occurred just west of Jackson, Mississippi, when a tornado touched down just south of I-20, crossed the expressway, flipping cars and semis, then plowed through the town of Clinton. At least nine people were injured in Clinton, and extensive damage characteristic of an EF-2 tornado is apparent in damage photos.
Figure 1. Radar reflectivity image of the Clinton, Mississippi tornado at 10:57am CDT as the twister crossed I-20 and hit the town. Note the classic hook-shaped echo of the parent mesocyclone in the rotating severe thunderstorms that spawned the tornado.
Figure 2. Doppler radar velocity image of the Clinton, Mississippi tornado at 10:57am CDT.
On Thursday, tornadoes and deadly severe thunderstorms tore through Oklahoma and Arkansas, killing at least nine people. A EF-3 tornado hit the small town of Tushka, Oklahoma, population 350, ripping off the roof of the local high school and destroying dozens of buildings in Tushka. Two people were killed and 25 injured. The tornado moved over farmland and dissipated a short time later, but the squall line that spawned the tornado moved into Arkansas overnight, spawning severe thunderstorm winds that killed seven more people.
Virginia, North Carolina, and South Carolina under the gun today
The action shifts eastwards to southern Virgina and eastern North Carolina and South Carolina today, which NOAA's Storm Prediction Center have placed under its "moderate risk" region for severe weather. This is the same level of risk as we've seen for the past two days for this storm system, and it is very unusual for this portion of the U.S. to experience such a high severe weather risk. Tornado watches have already been posted for portions of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina. You can follow today's severe weather using our severe weather page and interactive tornado map. This map now shows links to Youtube storm chaser videos of tornadoes, plus any wunderphotos taken of the storm.
Figure 3. Satellite image from 23:32 UTC (7:32pm CDT) April 15, 2011, showing the strong low pressure system over the middle of the country that brought yesterday's severe weather outbreak. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.
Figure 4. Water vapor satellite image from 23:15 UTC (7:15pm CDT) April 15, 2011, showing a dry, eye-like feature in the strong low pressure system over the middle of the country. This eye-like feature persisted for many hours, but was not visible on infrared or visible satellite images. According to an analysis done by Scott Bachmeier at the University of Wisconsin, the stratosphere, which has very dry air, sunk down to the 600 mb height at the center of the storm, and it is possible that dry air from the stratosphere is responsible for this eye-like feature. This is a different mechanism than how hurricanes develop eyes, and yesterday's storm had only a shallow area of low clouds with light rain near the center--nothing like an eyewall of a hurricane. Image credit: NOAA.
Figure 5. Storm chaser video from Reed Timmer of the Clinton, Mississippi tornado on April 15, 2011. Numerous transformers blow as the tornado wipes out power lines, creating bright blue-green flashes.
Figure 6. Storm chaser video from tornadovideos.net of a huge tornado in Oklahoma during Thursday's outbreak there.
Jeff Masters
Plowing over the countryside on its way to Madill.
Tractor rig picked up and placed on top of the others. Taken 2 miles north of Madill.
Taken shortly after 6 p.m. on Hwy 70 looking east. The tornado hit 2 miles north of town.
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ike- same here, geographical location of address. Maybe the comfort of living in a "safe zome" is part of the reason I get so upset when things like this happen- our minds just don't fathom it.
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2011
VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST/OH
RIVER VALLEY TO EASTERN OK/ARKLATEX...
...MIDWEST AND OH/MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEYS TO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS/ARKLATEX...
A VERY ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF TORNADOES/LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
INITIALLY...ELEVATED EARLY DAY TSTMS /SOME CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL/
WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OH RIVER VALLEY ON THE EDGE OF A
NORTHEASTWARD BUILDING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. OTHERWISE...BENEATH THE
BUILDING CAP...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL AGGRESSIVELY ADVECT
NORTHEASTWARD AS STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE MAINTAINED
THROUGH THE DAY. ACCORDINGLY...LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S F SURFACE
DEWPOINTS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ESTABLISHED TO THE EAST OF A
LOWER MO VALLEY SURFACE LOW AND ALONG/SOUTH OF A NORTHWARD MOVING
WARM FRONT ACROSS THE OH RIVER VALLEY/MIDWEST. BENEATH THE STRONG
EML/PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MODERATELY TO STRONG
INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY EXIST ACROSS THE PRE-COLD FRONT WARM SECTOR
BY AFTERNOON...WITH UPWARDS OF 2000-4000 J/KG OF MLCAPE POSSIBLE.
AIDED BY A NORTHEASTWARD ADVANCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH/ASSOCIATED
HEIGHT FALLS...TSTMS SHOULD ERUPT BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LOWER MO VALLEY/MIDDLE MS VALLEY
SURFACE LOW AND NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED COLD FRONT. SUCH
VIGOROUS DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT CURRENTLY APPEARS MOST PROBABLE
TO INITIALLY OCCUR ACROSS EASTERN/SOUTHERN MO INTO WESTERN IL...AND
A BIT LATER ACROSS EASTERN OK/NORTHWEST AR IN VICINITY OF THE
DRYLINE.
AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/VERY STRONG LAPSE RATES AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR OF 35-45 KT COINCIDENT WITH THE COLD FRONT/NEARBY WARM SECTOR
WILL BE FURTHER ACCENTUATED BY LONG/CURVING LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS
AIDED BY 40-55 KT WINDS WITHIN THE LOWEST 1-2 KM. THUS...INITIAL
MODE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES CAN BE
EXPECTED...WITH MORE OF A DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT
EVOLVING DURING THE EVENING AS SUBSEQUENT QUASI-LINEAR BOW
DEVELOPMENT OCCURS.
PORTIONS OF THE REGION WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A MODERATE
RISK IN SUBSEQUENT DAY 2 OUTLOOKS.
..GUYER.. 04/17/2011
This blog functions a lot better and is more tolerable during a tornado outbreak/severe weather vs. the dreaded hurricane season. Get ready. It's coming up soon.
Did you receive much rain yesterday...if any?
Hope this is the last of it, although it looks like the midwest better get ready for this upcoming week.
Thoughts and prayers to those hurt by the latest outbreak.
ike- No, no rain. None in sight for a week, ten days.
Looks and reads like bouncing long-trackers to me.
In/near a town with the unfortunate name of "Askewville" Location and label added this morning.
2300 ASKEWVILLE
BERTIE NC
3611 7694
*** 14 FATAL *** NUMEROUS TREES DOWN. NUMEROUS HOMES DAMAGED. NWS STORM SURVEY WILL BE CONDUCTED SUNDAY MORNING. (AKQ)
Which gets it close to May. Summertime thundershowers may be the likeliest relief by then.
I see a decent chance in about 10 days on the latest ECMWF..GFS shows a chance near the same time frame.
Yes...it's dry here.
you're making me smile at you, Ike. Here we are, pinning our hopes on a ten-day run, cause we REALLY want the rain- but give ya a ten-day run during Season™? and you'd laugh it out the door.
:)
I remember looking at the GFS about 7-8 days ago and seeing the system that just spawned all of the tornadoes.
Here's the 6-10 day precip outlook....from yesterday's forecast...
Really can't find too much wrong with this one as modeled this morning except the cap.
3 Day Surface Forecast/Valid 7AM CDT Tuesday -pointing towards SE KS and the southern half of MO as the starting point Tueday afternoon/evening.
beell- I imagine they'll keep the slight area the same size, might move the southern end up a bit, put a moderate a little north of center there.
LOL.
Aqua, just wash the damn car. That will do it.
Have to include the northern third of the dryline. It should become very active (again). This portion of the dryline will be closer to the eastward advance of the cooler temps aloft.
Dakster- hi, good to see you! I like wind and lightning too, as long as it is well-behaved. Nothing better than walking barefoot thru puddles in the yard, leaves all shiny and clean. We will all get our rain, as long as it remains UN-named.
beell- personally I think timing's gonna play a big part...I mean obviously we can't do a re-wind re-run of the upcoming forecast after it's over, but....the later after 2-3pm it kicks in? the worse it's gonna be.
I am here for ya. It's been a long 3 days for many here.
Sun shines, birds sing here, ya'll too have lifted me up.
Go in peace.
Loop
...and still no rain for Texas.
some people openly wish for a hurricane to hit them.
Thanks. where are you located by the way,,, me i am a suburb of Sydney Australia, about 15miles from the famous Sydney Harbour Bridge,
Not even remotely. The post to which you refer is riddle with vague references, half-truths, and untruths. Just to take a few:
"It is feared that an earthquake similar in magnitude or greater than that which recently devastated Japan may hit the U.S. any time." Really? Feared by whom? Perhaps by some uneducated anti-science blog writers--but certainly not by any credible seismologists.
"A YouTube video...graphically illustrates how increased seismic activity is showing up via publicly accessible government data yet the U.S. authorities themselves are not reporting this latest worrying development." So--the government is not reporting data that is being reported by the government?
"Volcanologists say the simmering giant [Yellowstone caldera] volcano is due another cataclysmic event." No, vulcanologists do not say that. In fact, many are saying that the periodic megaeruptions may be over for many tens of millions of years, as a shield of far thicker and denser rock has moved over the underlying magma plume.
(Even the post's title has fallen to using the seedy tabloid journalism tactic of adding a question mark at the end of an accusation to help prvide cover when the lie is exposed. "Oh, we weren't accusing; we were just wondering.")
See, that's problem with sites like CO2insanity; it's not scientifically valid to just throw out a bunch of baseless accusations and suppositions, then attempt to further them by complaining that no one is responding. That's what the crazy guy standing at the corner does; that's not what scientists do. (And for the record, Piers Corbyn is a quack. He's got the ego of a JB, the anti-science mind of an Anthony Watts, and the credibility of a Dr. Strangelove. Definitely a combination to avoid--or at least ignore.) ;-)
Tsunami event summary - Friday, 11 March 2011
Excellent concept your webpage... "I want some proof"..
Thanks. Not quite complete; I have a few teaks to make. But it's getting there. ;-)
We're already checking & gathering our evac supplies, have already packed important family keep-sakes in vacuum space bags and my wife is scanning documents to place on an easy-to-carry portable hard-drive.
Next weekend, I'm getting up in the attic with a good supply of wood glue and nailing extra bracing boards between the roof joists.
Considering the way conditions are lining up this year, I bet S.E. Texas is back in the barrel again for 2011.
thats enough of that
Link
Well Done:-
Somebody's got to start the dice rolling on this one.
I am in full agreement with a lot of the things that Neo. posts and his spheres of activities are far reaching but to deny the possibility of some of these major future natural disasters is a bad mistake and not to be persued. I do agree that there are a lot of scare mongers out there and I can easily see how the masses can be whipped up into a frenzy by deceit but who would have predicted the 9 earthquake off the coast of Japan? How many of the present blogers said that the quake after shocks will calm down after a few days and rebuked me and others for wondering about the significance of the aftershocks.
Now we still have 85 aftershocks over 4.5,in the last week. Several weeks after the event and last week it was onhly''70''
I could postulate for pages but people would tire of reading what might happen?
There are at best scant records more than 100 years old and no witnesses, A lot of people live on extremely dangerous fault lines and these things move even if people don't belive they will do much damage.
Mount St Helen's blew up.Krakatoa blew up, the earth moved in Indonesia and Japan and hurricanes have and will continue to strike.
I don't belive we have heard the last and possibly final chapter in the Japan quake yet and today's speculation is often tomorrows reality.
Anyone have any info on whether droughts in Texas are associated with Texas landfalls?
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