Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

The SOI is dropping very rapidly.

thanks for update doc iam hoping with all the severe at the end of april is the worse we will see but then again iam sure mom nature got a plan

Also of concern is the forecast for the Mississippi to crest at 19.5 feet in New Orleans on May 24. The levees in New Orleans protect the city for a flood of 20.0 feet--that is not much breathing room.

Six inches of breathing room to be exact. I hope they are prepared for a six-inch uh-oh.

And this is just the forecast. If there's a 5% margin of error??...or maybe they've already taken that into account.

I've had it, I'm praying for a tropical storm to rain for days over us, it'll just have to flood, it's outta control.

Quoting 2010hurricane:
The SOI is dropping very rapidly.

cud u just inform me off the exact significance of th soi faling rapidly
?

Quoting RitaEvac:
I've had it, I'm praying for a tropical storm to rain for days over us, it'll just have to flood, it's outta control.

No kidding. In NW Houston, the drought is starting to show more, as the grass is starting to go dormant (right after coming out of the winter dormancy), and aside from trees, natural green is becoming hard to find outside of irrigated areas.

Quoting caribbeantracker01:


cud u just inform me off the exact significance of th soi faling rapidly
?

High SOI = La Nina indicator.
Low SOI = El Nino Indicator.

The SOI was at crazy-absurd highs the last few weeks, so a rapidly falling SOI means the atmosphere is adjusting to the ocean. The ocean right now is signaling the end of La Nina (almost neutral now, actually), and the atmosphere has been lagging behind for the most part.

Jeff I'm noticing some pine trees looking a little brown, the needles are dying on the tree, that's usually a bad sign. Plus some newly planted crape myrtles on the side of the road are drooping and just burning up in the sun all day.

Link

See this interesting article in the New Orleans newspaper site about river level concerns.

They have yet to decide to open the Morganza spillway, only the second time since its creation, which is not factored in the that 19.5 foot level, I think.

Quoting RitaEvac:
Jeff I'm noticing some pine trees looking a little brown, the needles are dying on the tree, that's usually a bad sign. Plus some newly planted crape myrtles on the side of the road are drooping and just burning up in the sun all day.

The pine trees are hard to judge, due to the bark beetle. If they change slowly over a week or two, its drought. if they go from alive to dead in a week or two... its beetles (which go hand-in-hand with drought)

As for crepe myrtles, I've noticed that too, but I think its more stress than them dying... they perk back up overnight (I drive up and down Jones Rd in NW Houston daily, and can see the difference between 7am-ish and 5pm-ish).

Quoting jeffs713:
High SOI = La Nina indicator.
Low SOI = El Nino Indicator.

The SOI was at crazy-absurd highs the last few weeks, so a rapidly falling SOI means the atmosphere is adjusting to the ocean. The ocean right now is signaling the end of La Nina (almost neutral now, actually), and the atmosphere has been lagging behind for the most part.

This is expected - there was no way the SOI was going to remain that high with a neutral year.

Quoting jeffs713:
High SOI = La Nina indicator.
Low SOI = El Nino Indicator.

The SOI was at crazy-absurd highs the last few weeks, so a rapidly falling SOI means the atmosphere is adjusting to the ocean. The ocean right now is signaling the end of La Nina (almost neutral now, actually), and the atmosphere has been lagging behind for the most part.

It will be interesting to watch the dailies over the coming days to see how negative it can get over the short-term (currently -10). The cool thing about neutral years is that we can watch for Kelvin waves to zip across the Pacific, which can give a good medium-range indicator of tropical activity in the Caribbean. The MJO is a great predictor tool in neutral seasons.

And look where the three major global models have the MJO within 2 weeks. Phases 7 and 8 could support early-season mischief in the Caribbean.

Quoting RitaEvac:
Jeff I'm noticing some pine trees looking a little brown, the needles are dying on the tree, that's usually a bad sign. Plus some newly planted crape myrtles on the side of the road are drooping and just burning up in the sun all day.

There is an interesting blog about dying trees written by a woman in NJ. Take a look:
http://witsendnj.blogspot.com/

Quoting aquak9:
Also of concern is the forecast for the Mississippi to crest at 19.5 feet in New Orleans on May 24. The levees in New Orleans protect the city for a flood of 20.0 feet--that is not much breathing room.

Six inches of breathing room to be exact. I hope they are prepared for a six-inch uh-oh.

And this is just the forecast. If there's a 5% margin of error??...or maybe they've already taken that into account.

the tides are at their highest a couple days before this may 24th date. what if they get some rain? has that been added in too?

Quoting Levi32:
And look where the three major global models have the MJO within 2 weeks. Phases 7 and 8 could support early-season mischief in the Caribbean.

That's some pretty impressive upward motion in those forecasts. (For those that don't know, the further from the center the stronger the motion.)

Quoting Levi32:
And look where the three major global models have the MJO within 2 weeks. Phases 7 and 8 could support early-season mischief in the Caribbean.

The MJO chart shows high troll activity within 2 weeks...

Afternoon all, and thanks 2 Dr. Masters for the update, especially the info about Lake Champlain and the Richelieu River flooding. As I said last night, I find it amazing to think of this river flooding. There must be a lot of extra water [I guess from snowmelt?] in the watershed to have this impact.

5.2 quake out in the Atlantic.

Link

Quoting SeALWx:
5.2 quake out in the Atlantic.

Link

Hmmm.... transAtlantic ridge, I'd guess. I suppose an earthquake out there would have a greater chance of causing a tsunami that would hit the Bahamas than one in say, the Puerto Rico Trench...

Quoting BahaHurican:
Hmmm.... transAtlantic ridge, I'd guess. I suppose an earthquake out there would have a greater chance of causing a tsunami that would hit the Bahamas than one in say, the Puerto Rico Trench...

Yup, right there on the mid-Atlantic ridge.
Link

Quoting BahaHurican:
Hmmm.... transAtlantic ridge, I'd guess. I suppose an earthquake out there would have a greater chance of causing a tsunami that would hit the Bahamas than one in say, the Puerto Rico Trench...

The ridge pops off several times per year, and rarely up to a 6. No tsunami threat. The big tsunami threats are from the Azores (volcanic eruptions and undersea landslides), and the PR Trench.

Very heavy rainfall is moving into the central Philippines associated with a slow-moving monsoonal depression.

ESPI is now -1.30..nearly guaranteeing we'll see some El Niño conditions develop, maybe as early as sometime in June. No confidence if it would last long enough to be an official El Niño event at this point. With the atmospheric lag the season would be feeling more neutral conditions, like 2004. Though expecting the El Niño to be stronger so the tail end of the season would have more fish storms.

A magnitude 7.3 Mw earthquake on October 11, 1918, in the Mona Passage, west of Puerto Rico, was caused by displacement along four segments of a normal fault, oriented N-S in the Mona Canyon. The earthquake generated a tsunami with runup heights reaching 6 meters, causing extensive damage along the western and northern coasts of Puerto Rico. The earthquake and tsunami caused $29 million damage, 116 people were killed and 100 were reported missing. Map and caption by NOAA.

Quoting JRRP:

That's been showing up on several runs now, including the parallel GFS. What's fishy about that is how the 200mb level looks directly above the surface low. There is upper divergence beneath the jet, but there's 50-60 knots of shear over it. This looks like one of the GFS's favorite errors in long-range tropical development, but we'll see. The Caribbean should be watched during the last 10 days of May.

Quoting Levi32:
Very heavy rainfall is moving into the central Philippines associated with a slow-moving monsoonal depression.

You mean TD3?

Quoting PolishHurrMaster:

You mean TD3?

Yes.

Quoting aquak9:
Also of concern is the forecast for the Mississippi to crest at 19.5 feet in New Orleans on May 24. The levees in New Orleans protect the city for a flood of 20.0 feet--that is not much breathing room.

Six inches of breathing room to be exact. I hope they are prepared for a six-inch uh-oh.

And this is just the forecast. If there's a 5% margin of error??...or maybe they've already taken that into account.

They're going to open the Bonnet Carre Spillway on Monday, which will dump a lot of river water across a narrow stretch of land north of New Orleans into Lake Pontchartrain, thus easing the flood.

Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astrological Service and Administration
Tropical Cyclone bulletin #1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEBENG
11:00 PM PhST May 6 2011
====================================

The Low Pressure Area east of Visayas has intensified into a tropical depression and was named "BEBENG".

At 10:00 PM PhST, Tropical Depression Bebeng located at 11.7°N 127.9°E or 250 km east of Borongan, Eastern Samar has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest at 7 knots.

Storm Signal #1
==============

Luzon Region
------------
1.Camarines Sur
2.Albay
3.Catanduanes
4.Sorsogon
5.Masbate
6.Ticao Islands
7.Burias Islands

Visayas Region
------------
1.Leyte
2.Samar Provinces
3.Biliran Island

Additional Information
========================
Residents living in low lying and mountainous areas under signal #1 are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 AM tomorrow.

Notice the 0.2 in the southern east pacific.
but still, that is sth

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Data Buoy Center (NDBC) in Mississippi deployed the National Weather Service's (NWS) first operational Wave Glider on April 13, 2011 to monitor real-time atmospheric conditions in the Gulf of Mexico. The Wave Glider is unique because it can convert surface wave energy into a forward thrust, which can be remotely controlled to keep the station at critical marine locations. A weather station has been built into the Wave Glider - thus the entire system can generally mimic a large 3-meter moored buoy without the need for expensive ship time, mooring line and servicing/refurbishing.

more here. The next one will have tsunami detector too.

Will be interesting to see how those Wave Gliders fair in a 'cane.

Quoting dfwWxDude:
Link

See this interesting article in the New Orleans newspaper site about river level concerns.

They have yet to decide to open the Morganza spillway, only the second time since its creation, which is not factored in the that 19.5 foot level, I think.

You are correct.
FORECAST ASSUME OPERATION OF BONNET CARRE, BUT NOT MORGANZA LMRFC

Thanks for the link!

waiting for some rain!!! jun-jul


like this

Atlas launch in less than 10 mins...

Holding 10min for weather..

Quoting Skyepony:


The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Data Buoy Center (NDBC) in Mississippi deployed the National Weather Service's (NWS) first operational Wave Glider on April 13, 2011 to monitor real-time atmospheric conditions in the Gulf of Mexico. The Wave Glider is unique because it can convert surface wave energy into a forward thrust, which can be remotely controlled to keep the station at critical marine locations. A weather station has been built into the Wave Glider - thus the entire system can generally mimic a large 3-meter moored buoy without the need for expensive ship time, mooring line and servicing/refurbishing.

more here. The next one will have tsunami detector too.

THAT is awesome. With hurricanes, the more data they can get, the better. I have a feeling these are also less expensive to manufacture, so they can likely be used "on-the-fly", and positioned quickly in the face of oncoming storms. It would be like having ship reports, without the ship.

Quoting jeffs713:

The ridge pops off several times per year, and rarely up to a 6. No tsunami threat. The big tsunami threats are from the Azores (volcanic eruptions and undersea landslides), and the PR Trench.

I take the Azores, but I'm not sure if an earthquake in the PR trench would seriously impact the Bahamas.

New video of the Smithville Tornado taken by workers at the Wilkens Locks and Dam

Quoting BahaHurican:
I take the Azores, but I'm not sure if an earthquake in the PR trench would seriously impact the Bahamas.

True. The axis of the trench doesn't communicate a tsunami towards the Bahamas well. I was thinking more along the lines of the entire east coast, all the way up to Newfoundland.

Quoting emcf30:


New video of the Smithville Tornado taken by workers at the Wilkens Locks and Dam

That thing was a monster! True wedge tornado... Gives me chills to think that it was easily 3/4 to a mile wide, if not more...

I've been watching the buoys, no sign of a tsunami.

Launch control thinks the cumulus cloud may clear by 6:45pm GMT.

Looks like once the cumulonimbus flag is lifted we might get lift-off!

Looks like they are trying to launch between clouds at 6:45pm gmt. With final weather officer call at 60secs before launch.

Is that "before" picture of the mississippi misdated, or is it from last year?

Looks like they scrubbed the Atlas launch...

Atlas Scrubbed

Posted at 02:04 PM ET, 05/06/2011
Memphis faces massive Mississippi river flooding

...flood waters pouring in from the Arkansas River, Yazoo River, and other tributaries are expected to swell the Mississippi high enough to beat the all-time record at Vicksburg, Mississippi by 1.3’ on May 20, and smash the all-time record at Natchez, Mississippi by six feet on May 22, and by 3.2 feet at Red River Landing on May 23. Red River Landing is the site of the Old River Control Structure, the Army Corps’ massive engineering structure that keeps the Mississippi River from carving a new path to the Gulf of Mexico. ... Its failure would be a serious blow to the U.S. economy, and the great Mississippi flood of 2011 will give the Old River Control Structure its most severe test ever. Also of concern is the forecast for the Mississippi to crest at 19.5 feet in New Orleans on May 24. The levees in New Orleans protect the city for a flood of 20.0 feet--that is not much breathing room.

Article Link

Quoting emcf30:


New video of the Smithville Tornado taken by workers at the Wilkens Locks and Dam

Pretty amazing. But also sad; based on what I can tell from Google Earth, the tornado ripped through Smithville only a few seconds before the one voice says, "Man, you oughta see this debris up in the air!"

(For orientation purposes, that control tower window faces exactly due northeast, and the center of Smithville lies about 1.5 miles east-northeast of that tower. The tornado first touched down roughly 3/4 of a mile south-southeast of the tower.)