Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Deadly tornadoes rip OK, KS, and AR; high tornado risk today; Joplin tornado an EF-5
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:48 PM GMT on May 25, 2011 +4
America's deadliest tornado season since 1953 continued its relentless onslaught of violent tornadoes yesterday. Numerous destructive and deadly tornadoes raked Oklahoma, Texas, Kansas, and Arkansas, killing at least nine people. Yesterday's deadliest tornado hit El Reno and Piedmont, Oklahoma, about 30 miles to the west and northwest of Oklahoma City. Four people died, and one child is missing. Video of the damage from this tornado near the town of Piedmont shot by a news9.com helicopter shows damage characteristic of an EF-4 tornado, with many homes completely demolished and swept off their foundations. This tornado produced a wind gust of 151 mph at an Oklahoma Mesonet station in El Reno, Oklahoma.


Figure 1. Radar reflectivity image of the supercell thunderstorm that spawned the Piedmont, Oklahoma tornado that killed at least four people about 30 miles northwest of Oklahoma City.


Figure 2. Doppler velocity image of the supercell thunderstorm that spawned the Piedmont, Oklahoma tornado.


Figure 3. Top wind gusts recorded by the Oklahoma Mesonet yesterday showed that over 2/3 of the state received gusts of 40 mph or greater, and ten stations got gusts in excess of 58 mph (the definition of a severe thunderstorm.) A remarkable gust of 151 mph was recorded in El Reno, about 30 miles west of Oklahoma City.


Video 1. Chase video of the 1/2-mile wide tornado that killed four people in Canadian/Caddo Counties about 30 miles northwest of Oklahoma City on Tuesday, May 24, 2011.

Joplin, Missouri got a scare last night when Doppler radar showed a rotating thunderstorm approaching the city from the southwest. A tornado warning was issued and the sirens sounded, but the storm passed just to the northwest of the city, bringing Joplin only heavy rains, wind gusts to 41 mph, and intense lightning. A tornado warning forced the evacuation of NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) in Norman Oklahoma late yesterday afternoon, and the center was out of commission for a 50-minute period. However, yesterday's dangerous tornadoes missed the most heavily populated areas of Oklahoma, and SPC was able to resume normal activity after the storms cleared Oklahoma City. The center logged 47 reports of tornadoes yesterday, bringing the preliminary 4-day total of the current outbreak to 153 twisters. With more tornadoes expected today over a wide swath of the country from Arkansas to Ohio, this week's tornado outbreak is likely to rank as one of the top ten tornado outbreaks in history. This year already has the two largest tornado outbreaks in history, the April 25 - 28 outbreak (327 tornadoes) and the April 14 - 16 outbreak (162 tornadoes.)

This year's tornado death toll is in the 495 - 499 range, making it the deadliest year for tornadoes in the U.S. since 1953, when 519 people died. That year, three heavily populated cities received direct hits by violent tornadoes. Waco, Texas (114 killed), Flint, Michigan (115 killed), and Worcester, Massachusetts (90 killed) all were hit by violent F-4 or F-5 tornadoes. A similar bad tornado year occurred in 1936, when violent tornadoes hit Tupelo Mississippi (216 killed), and Gainesville, Georgia (203 killed.)


Figure 4. Satellite image taken at 22:32 UTC (6:32pm EDT) May 24, 2011, showing a line of tornadic thunderstorms over Oklahoma, Texas, and Kansas. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.


Figure 5. Radar image of an unusual "J"-shaped tendril emerging from a tornadic thunderstorm near Dallas, Texas. This storm had unusually high radar reflectivity (note the pink colors of 70 dbZ echoes), because of large hail in the storm. This thunderstorm produced softball-sized hail (4.5 inch diameter.)


Video 2. Chase video of several Oklahoma tornadoes intercepted yesterday by Reed Timmer of tornadovideos.net.

The Joplin tornado an EF-5, and the costliest tornado in history
The Springfield, Missouri office of the National Weather Service announced yesterday that storm surveys of the 7-mile long, 3/4 mile-wide path of damage carved by the Joplin tornado revealed that winds in the violent tornado exceeded 200 mph, making it the 4th EF-5 tornado of the year. The twister roared through Joplin beginning at 5:41pm CDT on Sunday, May 22. In nine terrifying minutes, the tornado killed at least 125 people, injured 750 more, and destroyed 2,000 buildings. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) rates this year's Joplin tornado as the 8th deadliest U.S. tornado of all-time, and the deadliest since at least 1947, when a violent F-5 tornado hit Woodward, Oklahoma, killing 181.

Catastrophe risk modeling firm EQECAT said yesterday that insured damages from the Joplin tornado could be between $1 billion and $3 billion dollars. According to NOAA's National Severe Storm Laboratory, the costliest tornado between 1890 - 1999 was the May 3, 1999 Oklahoma City tornado, which did $1 billion in damage (1999 dollars.) There were no tornadoes during the period 2000 - 2010 capable of causing $1 billion in damage; the only two EF-5 tornadoes during that period, the 2007 Greensburg, Kansas tornado and the 2008 Parkersburg, Iowa tornado each did less than $300 million in damage. Thus, with the possible exception of this year's Tuscaloosa-Birmingham tornado of April 27, the Joplin tornado is probably the most damaging tornado of all-time.

Another "High Risk" day for severe weather and violent tornadoes today
The Storm Prediction Center has placed portions of seven states, from Arkansas to Indiana, in their "High Risk" region for severe weather potential, and warn of the potential for long-lived strong or violent tornadoes. This is their second consecutive "High Risk" forecast day, and fourth of the year. A high risk forecast was also issued on April 27, which was the busiest tornado day in world history, with 198 tornadoes occurring in a 24-hour period. Over 300 people died. The other "High Risk" forecast by SPC came during the final day of the April 14 - 16 outbreak over the Southeast U.S. Fifty-two tornadoes hit that day, and 26 people died in North Carolina and Virginia. The severe weather threat will diminish considerably on Thursday, when only a slight risk of severe weather is expected from Alabama to New York.


Figure 5. Severe weather threat for Wednesday, May 25, 2011.

Joplin tornado the 7th U.S. billion-dollar weather disaster of 2011
The Joplin tornado is the 7th U.S. weather disaster of 2011 costing more than a billion dollars. With hurricane season still to come, 2011 has an excellent chance of beating 2008's record of nine billion-dollar weather disasters. The billion dollar weather disasters of 2011 so far:

1) 2011 Groundhog Day's blizzard ($1- $4 billion)
2) April 3 -5 Southeast U.S. severe weather outbreak ($2 billion)
3) April 8 - 11 severe weather outbreak ($2.25 billion)
4) April 25 - 28 super tornado outbreak ($3.5 - $6 billion)
5) Mississippi River flood of 2011 ($9 billion)
6) Texas drought ($1.2 billion)
7) Joplin tornado ($1 - $3 billion)

Links
The New York Times has an interactive tornado fatality map showing how this year's killer tornadoes have mostly clustered over the Southeast U.S., with the glaring exception of the Joplin, Missouri tornado.

NOAA's Visualization Laboratory has an impressive animation of the satellite imagery during the month of April, showing the locations of all the tornadoes as they happened.

Helping out tornado victims
For those who want to lend a helping hand to those impacted by the widespread destruction this month's severe weather has brought, stop by the Red Cross website, or portlight.org blog. Portlight has been very active bringing aid to the victims of this year's tornadoes.

Jeff Masters

joplin lightning (thestig1)
The storm in Joplin Mo. before destruction
joplin lightning
Tornado (smyezek)
Tornado near Okeene, Ok
Tornado
Much clearer view of it as it roped out (vortecguy)
Much clearer view of it as it roped out
()
Categories: Tornado
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452. MrstormX 11:51 PM GMT on May 25, 2011    
Tornado going right through Bedford, Indiana.

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453. aquak9 11:52 PM GMT on May 25, 2011    
thanks StAug

so far things look milder than what we've seen recently
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454. washingtonian115 11:53 PM GMT on May 25, 2011    
Hmmm when the guy who predicted that the raputre would happen said that their will be terrible natural disasters in the following months.Is this what he meant?.Anywho it's a real sad situation that's occuring in the midwest.And just imagine some people got hit back to back.And they're trying to recover.I hope hurricane season is good to us like it was last year and the year before.
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456. aquak9 11:55 PM GMT on May 25, 2011    
esp when the tv met reassures viewers that they hope to not pre-empt American Idol

(rolls eyes)
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457. srada 11:58 PM GMT on May 25, 2011    
Quoting aquak9:
esp when the tv met reassures viewers that they hope to not pre-empt American Idol

(rolls eyes)


there was a live feed I was watching today promising to show the final Oprah show that was supposed to air today tomorrow at its regular time or 3 am because of the emergency news cast..I think Oprah wouldnt mind her show being delayed in order to save lives but of course you do have people out there who wont think that..
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458. KoritheMan 11:59 PM GMT on May 25, 2011    
Quoting jasonweatherman2010:
i got a bad feeling that this!! look at this hurricane! the next report this hurricane will have winds over 135 mph.


The only reason Songda will be of any potential significance is due to the ongoing nuclear crisis in Japan. They are entirely accustomed to dealing with typhoons.
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459. aquak9 12:00 AM GMT on May 26, 2011    
but of course you do have people out there who wont think that..

it's a sorry sad state of affairs, what we humans deem important

sometimes I wish I was something other than human
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460. washingtonian115 12:01 AM GMT on May 26, 2011    
Quoting aquak9:
esp when the tv met reassures viewers that they hope to not pre-empt American Idol

(rolls eyes)
No I don't think they'll ever delay an american idol show to show a weather report.The T.v station instead will be to afraid to lose ratings(rolls eyes).
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461. mbjjm 12:02 AM GMT on May 26, 2011    
seems some tv stations will be showing american idol over covering possible torndoes
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462. pottery 12:03 AM GMT on May 26, 2011    
Quoting aquak9:
but of course you do have people out there who wont think that..

it's a sorry sad state of affairs, what we humans deem important

sometimes I wish I was something other than human

Well, if it makes you feel any better, I always picture you as a shaggy dog.
:):))
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463. WatchingThisOne 12:04 AM GMT on May 26, 2011    
Quoting vince1:

It's actually both at this point. When a government keeps taking on new responsibilities and needs to fill, it affords them more power and sway (and directly diminishes the amount of liberty the governed possess).

I have no fondness for Wall Street's pillaging of 2008, and I don't think those who have been ravaged like those in Joplin should not be monetarily assisted, but the unsustainable path that the govt. finds itself on (in large part due to the entitlement problem, secondarily due to becoming the world police) will not have a happy ending.


I'd love to dive into a discussion of this kind of thing, but as Floodman said, "Let's not get into this here."

This blog has enough trouble staying free of politics when global warming comes up. It's just not a good place to get into discussion of political and financial matters. Troll bait and all that.

Thanks.
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464. PcolaDan 12:05 AM GMT on May 26, 2011    
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465. anduril 12:05 AM GMT on May 26, 2011    
Quoting MrMixon:


Thanks, Keep, that's perfect! If anyone has a quickie answer for why precipitation is appearing in three distinct areas I'd love to capitalize on this opportunity to learn, but I certainly understand that there are greater priorities at the moment...
Pretty sure all you're seeing is all the moisture that was pulled in by the current low "pulling off" and being drawn towards another low thats moving off the coast of the US. For full radar feed check out Link and for a more visual idea of WHY it might be happening check out this link Link which I set to a start time of a few days ago
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466. Skyepony (Mod) 12:05 AM GMT on May 26, 2011    
That finger of god cloud threatening Memphis also looks like a Dragon..great shot from the tower with the pyramid in there too.
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467. MrstormX 12:07 AM GMT on May 26, 2011    
If local Fox Stations would rather show Idol that is their choice, but it will be on their conscience if something happens. But anyway back to the weather....
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468. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 12:08 AM GMT on May 26, 2011    
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469. washingtonian115 12:08 AM GMT on May 26, 2011    
Quoting mbjjm:
seems some tv stations will be showing american idol over covering possible torndoes
That's simple because the T.V stations are scared to lose ratings.It's a real sad and sickning thing to imagine.But hey that's life.And life isn't fair.
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470. aquak9 12:09 AM GMT on May 26, 2011    
thank you, pottery. That's my goal for the next life. :)
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471. mbjjm 12:10 AM GMT on May 26, 2011    
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472. MrstormX 12:10 AM GMT on May 26, 2011    
Memphis Wall Cloud

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474. VAbeachhurricanes 12:14 AM GMT on May 26, 2011    
Quoting KrippleCreekFerry:
Chad Myers of CNN said a giant mesocyclone is hovering over Memphis. May Allah spare them.


you are obviously doing it to spark controversy, I stood up for you yesterday. Please stop today.
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475. MrstormX 12:14 AM GMT on May 26, 2011    
Image before camera update:

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476. srada 12:15 AM GMT on May 26, 2011    
Watching Anderson Cooper..he said they are not allowing people in the morgue to identify bodies in Joplin..said they will have to wait a week or two? WHAT?? There was a father sobbing wanting to know if his missing son was laying in the morgue..how can these people move on if they dont know what has happened to their love ones..Tragic!
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477. MrMixon 12:16 AM GMT on May 26, 2011    
Quoting aquak9:
but of course you do have people out there who wont think that..

it's a sorry sad state of affairs, what we humans deem important

sometimes I wish I was something other than human


I sure understand and often catch myself feeling the same way. It might seem counter-intuitive, but I find some consolation in the thought that, if you could really analyze the minds of dogs or gnats or sparrows, you'd find that many of them are just as shallow and vapid as their human counterparts. I think when the basic needs (food, shelter, etc.) of a creature are met, it shifts its focus towards the pursuit of comfort. For better or worse, many humans derive greater comfort from mindless TV shows than they do from news and current events. Such is life. Luckily, there are quite a few humans who seem to derive comfort from being informed.
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478. largeeyes 12:18 AM GMT on May 26, 2011    
Friend of mine near Dayton just put on facebook pics of the hail. Shade over 2". Don't recall ever seeing hail that large in the 25+ years I lived in that area.
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479. MrMixon 12:18 AM GMT on May 26, 2011    
Quoting anduril:
Pretty sure all you're seeing is all the moisture that was pulled in by the current low "pulling off" and being drawn towards another low thats moving off the coast of the US. For full radar feed check out Link and for a more visual idea of WHY it might be happening check out this link Link which I set to a start time of a few days ago


That makes a lot of sense. Thanks for taking the time to provide an explanation (and for the links).
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480. atmoaggie 12:21 AM GMT on May 26, 2011    
Quoting MrMixon:
I've been trying (without luck) to find a radar image big enough to show this entire system.

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481. emcf30 12:21 AM GMT on May 26, 2011    
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482. Titoxd 12:21 AM GMT on May 26, 2011    
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483. MrstormX 12:24 AM GMT on May 26, 2011    
I wonder if Wikipedia has been keeping this article updated, im guessing yes.
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484. MrMixon 12:26 AM GMT on May 26, 2011    
#480
Quoting atmoaggie:



Ah ha! I was at radar.weather.gov earlier wishing I could figure out how to find a linkable image. How the heck do you get to that GIF from their main page?

Thanks!
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485. MrstormX 12:29 AM GMT on May 26, 2011    
Weak tornadoes tonight in comparison to what we have been seeing, these storms are killing each other and there are not to many isolated cells, so for once things aren't seeming as bad as normal.
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486. beell 12:29 AM GMT on May 26, 2011    
Quoting MrMixon:
I've been trying (without luck) to find a radar image big enough to show this entire system.

The reason I wanted to do so was that I was hoping somebody with more knowledge than me could describe why there seem to be three separate areas of precipitation.

The first area I'm referring to are the spiral bands moving up the east side of the low right now (the bands spawning all the tornadoes).

The second patch is moving northeast up through Indiana, Ohio, and Michigan and doesn't look like it's strictly part of the low since it doesn't line up with the spiral pattern.

The third patch is centered over Wisconsin and extends slightly into Minnesota on the west and into northern Michigan on the east.

Are there terms to describe these three areas of precipitation? Why don't the second and third areas seem to line up with the spiral shape of the big low spawning all this stuff? Do these questions even make sense?


Oh, and PS - if you believe your U.S. dollars are "worthless" please send me a private message. I will send you my mailing address to which you can mail all your worthless dollars. I'll even pay for postage. ;-)


MrMixon, I'll make a quick try at it.

Your correct about the precip and severe weather associated with the big upper low and the spiral bands of convection.

There is also a surface low underneath the upper system and extending to its east, a warm front boundary separating the warm moist air from the cooler and dryer air. As the warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico gets drawn north it gets a boost (lift) when it meet the warm front-almost like air forced to rise because of terrain (another kind of lift). More thunder and rain results from this somewhat abrupt lifting.

Part of this same warm, moist air continues to track to the north across the boundary and will usually start to make a gentle left turn in response to the lower pressure to its west. The properties of this airmass are much different than the air it has just lifted over. If unique airmasses can, they will try to not mix with an airmass that has different properties (temperature, density, moisture, etc). This air is still ascending a slope but one that is a much more gentle upglide. At some point it cools enough from the ascent for the remaining moisture to be squeezed out. Quite a bit different than the convective process where surface air is rudely yanked up 40-50,000 ft! This used to be called "overunning". The most explicit term nowdays is "Isentropic Lift". Today, this moisture is reaching saturation over MN and MI.
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487. atmoaggie 12:31 AM GMT on May 26, 2011    
Quoting MrMixon:
#480


Ah ha! I was at radar.weather.gov earlier wishing I could figure out how to find a linkable image. How the heck do you get to that GIF from their main page?

Thanks!
Opened up the html page source and scanned for the URL of the embedded image.
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489. TropicalAnalystwx13 12:31 AM GMT on May 26, 2011    
Just saying...if it were up to me (which it definitely isn't) I would have left today as a Moderate risk for Severe weather instead of a High risk...just doesn't have High risk quality storms and reports today.
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491. atmoaggie 12:33 AM GMT on May 26, 2011    
Quoting beell:


MrMixon, I'll make a quick try at it.

Your correct about the precip and severe weather associated with the big upper low and the spiral bands of convection.

There is also a surface low underneath the upper system and extending to its east, a warm front boundary separating the warm moist air from the cooler and dryer air. As the warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico gets drawn north it gets a boost (lift) when it meet the warm front-almost like air forced to rise because of terrain (another kind of lift). More thunder and rain results from this somewhat abrupt lifting.

Part of this same warm, moist air continues to track to the north across the boundary and will usually start to make a gentle left turn in response to the lower pressure to its west. The properties of this airmass are much different than the air it has just lifted over. If unique airmasses can, they will try to not mix with an airmass that has different properties (temperature, density, moisture, etc). This air is still ascending a slope but one that is a much more gentle upglide. At some point it cools enough from the ascent for the remaining moisture to be squeezed out. Quite a bit different than the convective process where surface air is rudely yanked up 40-50,000 ft! This used to be called "overunning". The most explicit term nowdays is "Isentropic Lift". Today, this moisture is reaching saturation is occuring over MN and MI.
Geez, Beell. I was still processing (but really haven't been able to analyze much today).

I'm stuck in make-Fortran-write-grib2-files, umm, utopia.
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492. Patrap 12:34 AM GMT on May 26, 2011    
Songda Rainbow Image


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493. emcf30 12:35 AM GMT on May 26, 2011    
BEDFORD LAWRENCE IN 3886 8649 (IND)
0012 6 NW BROWNSTOWN JACKSON IN 3894 8612 POSSIBLE DEBRIS BALL ON RADAR (IND)
0017 9 ENE BEDFORD LAWRENCE IN 3891 8634
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494. emcf30 12:37 AM GMT on May 26, 2011    
Bedford In, Tornado confirmed, multiple injuries per TWC
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495. KoritheMan 12:37 AM GMT on May 26, 2011    
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Just saying...if it were up to me (which it definitely isn't) I would have left today as a Moderate risk for Severe weather instead of a High risk...just doesn't have High risk quality storms and reports today.


I don't think the classifications depend on how severe the storms will be, but rather, the areal coverage and extent of said storms.
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496. CothranRoss 12:37 AM GMT on May 26, 2011    
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Just saying...if it were up to me (which it definitely isn't) I would have left today as a Moderate risk for Severe weather instead of a High risk...just doesn't have High risk quality storms and reports today.


I don't know. In my honest opinion, I believe having the whole eastern flank of illinois under a tornado warning is pretty deserving of a high risk.
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498. pottery 12:38 AM GMT on May 26, 2011    
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Just saying...if it were up to me (which it definitely isn't) I would have left today as a Moderate risk for Severe weather instead of a High risk...just doesn't have High risk quality storms and reports today.

???
There have been Tornadoes all over the place today....
That seems to vindicate a "high risk" call, if you ask me.
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499. MrstormX 12:38 AM GMT on May 26, 2011    
Quoting emcf30:
Bedford In, Tornado confirmed, multiple injuries per TWC


Yah I posted a radar image of that one 45 minutes ago, nasty hook with little debris ball.
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500. MrMixon 12:38 AM GMT on May 26, 2011    
Quoting atmoaggie:
Opened up the html page source and scanned for the URL of the embedded image.


Very clever trick noted and stored away in the memory banks for future use. Much obliged.
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501. CanesfanatUT 12:38 AM GMT on May 26, 2011    
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Just saying...if it were up to me (which it definitely isn't) I would have left today as a Moderate risk for Severe weather instead of a High risk...just doesn't have High risk quality storms and reports today.


They don't know that at 6am, main.

BTW - day ain't over yet.
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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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