Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

good evening friends.

Good reading back, excellent Q n A.

hey levi or skypony....yes my reply got all messed up...but would your opions point to a neutral Enso for this year??

Quoting hurricane23:
If anything forms across the caribbean it will be some half-baked STC/TC that will be sheared from the sw & w and battle dry air entrainment from the west.

Well it certainly won't be subtropical, due to the extremely warm waters. Other than that, I agree with you in calling for the possibility of a tropical cyclone sheared along a SW to NE orientation.

hmmm...my posts aren't taking.

well anyways, good evening all. Poor spathy- hahaha

Quoting Levi32:


I can't afford a lower 48 school with a meteorology program, at least right now, so I'm majoring in physics here at UAF. I have finished my freshman year, and will start my sophomore year in the fall. It's going pretty well, but I do get quite frustrated from time to time that I can't actually do what I want. I read about the MET labs that schools do for classes and it just makes my mouth water. Life isn't fair.

If I were Dr. Masters or the Weather Underground Management, I would contract and facilitate the development of such a talent...

Hey, Weather Underground.... Listen to this....

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Levi,check post 20 about the Gulf of Guinea.What do you think of that?

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Hi Levi. It appears that the Gulf of Guinea is cooling a little bit.Many times,you have talked about this area in terms of causing things to be favorable in the Eastern Atlantic. You think is a temporary cooling or it has legs?

I've noticed that. It's definitely interesting to see, given that every global model keeps the Gulf of Guinea warmer than normal all summer long. Predicting the behavior of that particular tongue of water is rather difficult, so I can't really say whether the cold will last, but it will be interesting to monitor.

Quoting aquak9:
hmmm...my posts aren't taking.

well anyways, good evening all. Poor spathy- hahaha

Evening Aqua :)

Quoting driftwoodswfl:
Thanks Levi

I am east of you on the coast, our rain chances from yesterday were basically wiped off the map today. Typically that means yours will be higher, go with the 50%. This is also something of note for those that will be following the AOI expected to develop next week. Surely I will be looking into this tomorrow but, that's a rather significant change as there was to be a ULL traversing the lower peninsula.

Seems like the trajectory of Songda is closer to Japan.... What effect would torrential rain have over Fukushima?

Quoting sunlinepr:
Seems like the trajectory of Songda is closer to Japan.... What effect would torrential rain will have over Fukushima?

Finally get them reactors cooled?

Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


Finally get them reactors cooled?

Yeah, New source of uncontaminated water for cooling...

Quoting sunlinepr:


Yeah, New source of uncontaminated water for cooling...

I'm afraid any water that falls outta the sky around there, ain't gonna be uncontaminated...

Quoting aquak9:
good evening friends.

Good reading back, excellent Q n A.

good evenin to you

Japan's Radar

This could be an interesting year. Activity and it ain't even officially hurricane season.

Poll on the total named storm activity of this season...

a)Under 8 named storms
b)8-12 named storms
c)13-17 named storms
d)18-21 named storms
e)22 named storms

I'd pick c, anybody who'd like to vote be free to do so.

hi MrTaylor. Love the avatar.

Daughter had to do a speech about ANYTHING when she started high school. Scared, no idea what to talk about, I told her- what about Sublime?

She made many instant friends, and got an A. She's been brave ever since.

Here's why my rain chances are gone. 00ZGFS is 24 hours quicker with the ULL on this run. Location of the low on the 18Z was 144hrs compared to 114 on this run. Much faster evolution with the ULL is on tap, not sure what that will do with our AOI to the south.

Pretty much the same thing on the 00z GFS as previous runs. Broad area of low pressure with convection sheared off towards the northeast.

00z GFS at 126 hours:

Quoting FrankZapper:
This could be an interesting year. Activity and it ain't even officially hurricane season.

I could be wrong, but weren't you the one saying just hours ago that it would be an inactive season?

Though it is supposed to downgrade, what else can happen to Japan?

Quoting KoritheMan:

I could be wrong, but weren't you the one saying just hours ago that it would be an inactive season?

Yes, and I stand by my prediction. One early storm does not make for an overly active season. It will be interesting to me if the pundits are wrong.

Quoting FrankZapper:
One early storm does not make for an overly active season.

Of course not. I was just a bit confused by your comment in light of what you said earlier.

Although, I am rather curious as to your justification for thinking the season will be inactive?

00z run shows the system splitting into two pieces again.

Quoting KoritheMan:

Of course not. I was just a bit confused by your comment in light of what you said earlier.

Although, I am rather curious as to your justification for thinking the season will be inactive?

While it's true that some indicators point to high activity, high SSTs, a neutral ENSO, etc, I think we will see high Pacific( East and West) activity. It's a cyclic thing and they (unfortunately) are due for a big year.

Quoting FrankZapper:
Yes, and I stand by my prediction. One early storm does not make for an overly active season. It will be interesting to me if the pundits are wrong.

By inactive, do you mean like not hyper activity or do you mean really low like the 2009 hurricane season? Cause if you're talking about a season like, say, 1998 total-wise I understand (that season wasn't extremely active when it comes to totals) but I politely disagree if you think that this season's gonna end up like 2009. What's the proof?

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
00z run shows the system splitting into two pieces again.

Very monsoonal in nature. I noticed this two days ago. It may eventually mean that the system will not develop at all, or at the very least, will compete for genesis across the eastern Pacific or the Caribbean.

Quoting hurricaneben:


By inactive, do you mean like not hyper activity or do you mean really low like the 2009 hurricane season? Cause if you're talking about a season like, say, 1998 total-wise I understand (that season wasn't extremely active when it comes to totals) but I politely disagree if you think that this season's gonna end up like 2009. What's the proof?

I don't think it will be a blockbuster. It will surprise and relieve a lot of folks.

Quoting aquak9:
hi MrTaylor. Love the avatar.

Daughter had to do a speech about ANYTHING when she started high school. Scared, no idea what to talk about, I told her- what about Sublime?

She made many instant friends, and got an A. She's been brave ever since.

that's a good choice.

Sublime is a great band. Where I live (s California - San Diego), there music is very popular. It's a shame Bradley is no longer with us, they produced some truly unique music.

Quoting FrankZapper:
While it's true that some indicators point to high activity, high SSTs, a neutral ENSO, etc, I think we will see high Pacific( East and West) activity. It's a cyclic thing and they (unfortunately) are due for a big year.

True, but you also have to keep in mind the cold PDO, and the fact that, even though it has officially ended, the residual effects of La Nina on eastern Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are still being felt:




All that cold water noted in the Pacific should allow for the upward MJO to linger in our basin as happened throughout much of last year (though I will admit that if SSTs continue to warm in the Atlantic, we could eventually lose the Atlantic tripole, an exuberant source of heat energy for the basin), which of course, increases the likelihood for tropical cyclone formation.

I guess we'll just have to wait and see. At least your evidence was scientific. That's a relief.

Quoting KoritheMan:

Very monsoonal in nature. I noticed this two days ago. It may eventually mean that the system will not develop at all, or at the very least, will compete for genesis across the eastern Pacific or the Caribbean.

I'm thinking very similar in nature to last year's Nicole. Could also have a 'competing vorticies' type thing that would make it quite similar to Alex as well. Nevertheless, development, if any, will take its sweet time.

Quoting hurricaneben:


What's the proof?

Evidence, my friend, not proof. Two completely different things. The former is much easier to come by, while the latter is limited to mathematics. Just sayin. ;)

Quoting KoritheMan:

True, but you also have to keep in mind the cold PDO, and the fact that, even though it has officially ended, the residual effects of La Nina on eastern Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are still being felt:




All that cold water noted in the Pacific should allow for the upward MJO to linger in our basin as happened throughout much of last year (though I will admit that if SSTs continue to warm in the Atlantic, we could eventually lose the Atlantic tripole, an exuberant source of heat energy for the basin), which of course, increases the likelihood for tropical cyclone formation.

I guess we'll just have to wait and see. At least your evidence was scientific. That's a relief.

Yes I have proudly obtained much of my knowledge from 24 years of reading The Farmer's Almanac and Reader's Digest.



jk

Quoting FrankZapper:
Yes I have proudly obtained much of my knowledge from 24 years of reading The Farmer's Almanac and Reader's Digest.



jk

Haha.

Much to my chagrin, my dad is guilty of perpetuating belief in the former throughout the duration of each hurricane season. As his eldest son, it is my obligatory duty to politely admonish him. Too bad he doesn't listen. :/

Quoting hurricaneben:
Poll on the total named storm activity of this season...

a)Under 8 named storms
b)8-12 named storms
c)13-17 named storms
d)18-21 named storms
e)22+ named storms

I'd pick c, anybody who'd like to vote be free to do so.

c

14-18 seems to be the avg range of most people. I'm thinking 15-16

Quoting FrankZapper:
Yes I have proudly obtained much of my knowledge from 24 years of reading The Farmer's Almanac and Reader's Digest.



jk

During those years....Did you considered Frank Zappa's music career?

Quoting sunlinepr:


During those years....Did you considered Frank Zappa's music career?

Who is Frank Zappa?

Residents at ground zero of tornado recall terrifying moments. This is in Bush,LA not Joplin.Link

One of those flares over C America, will turn out to be an invest, soon....Bed Time...

0z CMC 144 hours:

0z NOGAPS 180 hours:

Quoting Levi32:
0z NOGAPS 180 hours:

Quoting Levi32:
0z CMC 144 hours:

Both pretty aggressive.

Its my bedtime. Hopefully the intensity models show up by tomorrow.

Quoting Levi32:
0z NOGAPS 180 hours:

this is very bad for me very bad, Levi32 do you see where the system is at, at that time. you know where I am

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Both pretty aggressive.

The 00z CMC does something very different with that system tonight as compared to last night. Look where it ends up at 216.

00z ECMWF develops a broad area of low pressure in the southern Caribbean at 120 hours. Keeps the system as one entity and relatively weak throughout the run (through 240 hours) as it remains relatively stationary in the middle of the Caribbean.

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
00z ECMWF develops a broad area of low pressure in the southern Caribbean at 120 hours. Keeps the system as one entity and relatively weak throughout the run (through 240 hours) as it remains relatively stationary in the middle of the Caribbean.

Yep. Saw that. CMC the only one Ive seen really move it at all and of course they pick now not to show the 240hr. Lol. At least not on any site I could find. Ah well, they're just models but hey, not much else to talk about yet. Soon it would seem tho. :)

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
it remains relatively stationary in the middle of the Caribbean.

That seems a little odd for June.

hmmmm...

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
235 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2011

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS E-W ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF ALONG 27N.
BUOYS OVER THE NW GULF INDICATE THAT SE RETURN FLOW IS STARTING
TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT...BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE AND LOW
PRES DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW
PERSISTS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF PRESENTLY. WINDS
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF WILL INCREASE THROUGH LATE TODAY AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SE UNITED STATES. E TO SE WINDS WILL
INCREASE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THROUGHOUT THE GULF IN RESPONSE TO
LOWERING PRES OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE
NE BY MID WEEK AS AN AREA OF LOW PRES IN THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN
SHIFTS INTO THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE INCREASING FETCH AND
DURATION OF THE FRESH E TO SE FLOW WILL ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO 8
FT IN THE FAR WESTERN GULF BY MON...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL SUBSIDE
THROUGH MIDWEEK AS WINDS BACK MORE NE TO E ACROSS THE GULF AND
DIMINISH SLIGHTLY OVER THE WESTERN GULF AS THE LOW PRES N OF THE
AREA SHIFTS FURTHER TO THE N. MOST OF THE LATEST REPORTS FROM
OIL PLATFORMS AND LAND BASED OBSERVATIONS OVER THE WESTERN GULF
SHOW UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY WITH A COUPLE OF EXCEPTIONS WHERE 4
TO 5 NM IN HAZE WAS REPORTED. SMOKE FROM SOUTHERN MEXICO COULD
STILL BE AN ISSUE OVER THE WESTERN GULF...BUT THIS MAY BE
STARTING TO ABATE.

CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W...
SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW AREAS OF 20 KT EASTERLY WINDS ALONG THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA...BETWEEN HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA AND
DEVELOPING LOW PRES OVER NW COLOMBIA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN. A
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALSO MIGRATING INTO EASTERN VENEZUELA ENHANCING
SURFACE WINDS TO 20 KT OFF THE NE COAST OF VENEZUELA W OF
TRINIDAD. ELSEWHERE LIGHT TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS PREVAIL
ACROSS THE AREA FROM 55W THROUGH THE NW CARIBBEAN. SW MONSOON
FLOW FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS AIDING DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW
PRES IN THE SW CARIBBEAN. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THIS FEATURE. IT IS EXPECTED FORM TODAY...DEEPEN TO AROUND
1007 TO 1008 MB AND STAY OFF WESTERN PANAMA INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. IT WILL MIGRATE INTO THE W CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SW OF JAMAICA
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH NOT DEEPEN MUCH FURTHER
GIVEN STRONG SHEAR ALOFT AND THAT SUPPORTING SW FLOW REMAINS
FAIRLY LIGHT. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE TO ENHANCE E TO SE FLOW
OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS
WILL REACH AS HIGH AS 10 FT WITH WINDS 20 TO 25 KT BY LATE MON.