An early start to hurricane season?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:12 PM GMT on May 31, 2011

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The Atlantic hurricane season officially begins on Wednesday, June 1, but the Caribbean is already showing signs of the change of seasons. Moisture and heavy thunderstorm activity have increased in the region between Central America and Jamaica in recent days, and rainfall amounts of 1 - 2 inches have been common over the past three days over Cuba, Hispaniola, and much of Central America. The subtropical jet stream has been bringing high wind shear of 30 - 50 knots over the Caribbean the past week, but this shear has fallen to 20 - 40 knots this morning, and is predicted to fall below 20 knots by Thursday. All of the computer models predict that an area of low pressure will form in the region between Jamaica and Honduras by Thursday. This low will have the potential to develop into a tropical depression late this week. There is some dry air over the Western Caribbean near Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula that may retard the process, but a surge of moisture accompanying a tropical wave currently passing through the Lesser Antilles may counteract this, when the wave arrives in the Western Caribbean on Thursday. Water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 29°C, which is plenty warm enough to support development of a tropical storm. Some recent runs of the NOGPAS model have predicted development of a tropical depression by late this week, potentially affecting Jamaica and Eastern Cuba. The other models have not been as gung-ho, but have been showing the potential for a strong tropical disturbance with very heavy rains forming late this week. In any case, residents of Jamaica, Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Haiti, Honduras, and Nicaragua should anticipate the possibility that heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches may affect them Thursday through Saturday this week.


Figure 1. Total precipitable water (a measure of how much rain would fall if we condensed all the water vapor present) for May 31, 2011 at 7am EDT. Plentiful water vapor in the SW Caribbean would create about 2 inches of rain (50 mm, orange colors) if it were all condensed out. Image credit: University of Wisconsin CIMSS.

Receipt did not travel 525 miles from Joplin tornado
The May 22 EF-5 tornado that struck Joplin, Missouri did not set a new record for longest transport of debris by a tornado. According to MSNBC, a couple living in Royal Center, Indiana, in North Central Indiana, 525 miles from Joplin, found a receipt from the Joplin Tire store three days after the tornado hit Joplin. However, a press release from Purdue University clarified that the receipt did not arrive via the tornado, but had been left behind by a relative that had visited Joplin before the tornado. The longest distance recorded for debris from a storm was a cancelled check that traveled 210 miles after the 1915 tornado in Great Bend, Kansas.

The death toll from the May 22, 2011 tornado in Joplin, Missouri is 139, although there is still considerable uncertainty about this number. The Joplin tornado is the 8th deadliest in U.S. history, and the most deadly since the 1947 Woodward, Oklahoma twister that killed 181 people. The tornado season of 2011 now has approximately 520 deaths, which would make it the deadliest tornado season since 1936, according to statistics compiled by NOAA. In the 1936 tornado season 552 people died, mostly because of violent tornadoes that hit Tupelo Mississippi (216 killed), and Gainesville, Georgia (203 killed.)


Figure 2. Satellite image taken at 23:45 UTC (7:45pm EDT) May 22, 2011, showing the line of tornadic thunderstorms that spawned the Joplin tornado. Image credit: NOAA Visualization Laboratory.

Jeff Masters

Joplin, MO (Portlight)
Joplin, MO

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Its...

* A low

* A MCS low

* An area of thunderstorms

Different opinions from different people. In all seriousness, its the leftovers from yesterdays thunderstorm complex in the NE.
I didn,t see it on tropics surface plot. Does it have a circulation? Does it have an inversion on top of it? Looks like the cloud tops may be capped. Thanks for the answers
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447. IKE

Quoting clwstmchasr:


Thinking more and more that whatever is down there is not going to bring any rain relief to areas in the SE that need the rain.
I would bet you are correct. I hope I'm wrong.
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446. IKE
Here's hour 120 12Z ECMWF....


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Obviously plenty warm enough in the Caribbean.

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443. Skyepony (Mod)
That blob off NC looks like a little rain for NE & EC side of FL, models picked it up & weaken it on approach. Here's what's burning in FL, oh we could use it. ASCAT looked a little more organized than the models depicted.
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REQUIREMENTS FOR Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert

If a system gets 35 to 38 points, a TCFA may be issued depending on Dvorak trends, and if a system gets 39 points or more a TCFA should be issued.

Surface
Condition Points
A circulation is evident using visible satellite, shortwave infrared, microwave imagery or QuikSCAT/Windsat ambiguities 3 points
A circulation has been evident for at least 24 hours 5 points
A westerly surface- or gradient-level wind of 5 kt that is within 200 nm (370 km, 230 mi) south of the centre of the disturbance 5 points
Any wind associated with the system is at least 20 kt 2 points
Any wind associated with the system is at least 25 kt 3 points
Any wind associated with the system is at least 30 kt 4 points
A weather station within 200 nm of the system has reported had a pressure drop of 2 mb over 24 hours 3 points
A weather station within 200 nm of the system has had a pressure drop of 3 mb over 24 hours 4 points
The estimated MSLP of the system is less than 1010 to 1009 mb 3 points
The estimated MSLP of the system is 1008 mb or less 4 points

500 mb height
Condition Points
There is evidence of at least an inverted trough 2 points
There is evidence of a closed circulation in the system 4 points

200 mb height
Condition Points
Westerly flow of at least 15 kt over the disturbance -4 points
There is evidence of anticyclonic outflow over the centre of the disturbance 4 points
Easterly flow of at most 20 kt over the disturbance 3 points

Sea surface temperature
Condition Points
The sea surface temperature is 26 Celsius (78.8 Fahrenheit) or higher 3 points

Satellite data
Condition Points
The system has persisted for at least 24 hours 3 points
The system has persisted for at least 48 hours 4 points
The system has persisted for at least 72 hours 5 points
The system has a Dvorak classification of T1.0 to T1.5 from all three agencies (TAFB, SAB, AFWA) 3 points
The system has a Dvorak classification of T1.5 to T2.0 from all three agencies 5 points
The Dvorak final-T number has decreased by T0.5 to T1.0 from two or more agencies -2 points

Miscellaneous
Condition Points
The cloud system is north (or south) of 5 degrees latitude 3 points
The tropical system is within 72 hours of reaching a Department of Defense resource 3 points
The cloud system center and the satellite centre fixes for the system are within 2 degrees of each other 2 points
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------------

I wonder what our Caribbean system currently has in terms of points.
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Whoa. They drove "three quarters of an hour". Do they drove for 45 minutes. Uh... I frequently have a longer commute to and from work daily - and I live 17 miles from my office.
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Quoting cchsweatherman:


Note that on this run, the ECMWF has a much weaker trough out in the NW Atlantic. This could play a crucial role in the future.


Good eye!
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Jellyfish hordes crash Florida beach parties - By Zachary Roth

More than 800 people at beaches along Florida's Atlantic coast were stung this weekend by the swarm of purple-colored sea creatures, which washed up on shore en masse, thanks to consistent east winds, according to Eisen Wicher, a Brevard County Ocean Rescue official.

CNN interviewed one local family, the Smiths, who said they'd driven for three quarters of an hour to get to Cocoa Beach, but left after five minutes when their daughter was stung.

The stings cause itching, burning, and rashes, similar to a bee sting, but aren't usually serious, unless the victim is allergic. Lifeguards have a vinegar solution on hand to neutralize the stinging cells.

Still, two people were taken to the hospital after suffering from respiratory problems, Witcher said.....


Link
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Quoting Skyepony:
Very recent ASCAT of the blob off NC.


Whatdya know, there is circulation. Very evident.
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:




It's going into "The Box" LOLOLOLOLOL
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All the models seem to keep the system in the Caribbean even 6 days out. Looks like weak steering currents will be in place.

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435. Skyepony (Mod)
Very recent ASCAT of the blob off NC.
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Quoting GoldCoast2011:


Keep, why don you allow folks to post on your blog?
you can post on my blog anytime you want comments are always open
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Quoting cchsweatherman:


Note that on this run, the ECMWF has a much weaker trough out in the NW Atlantic. This could play a crucial role in the future.


It's interesting that most of the 12Z model runs shows a weaker trough, the opposite of the way the models had been trending before that.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Really cold cloud tops with the Caribbean AOI..We'll be getting a TWO later on tonight or tomorrow at the latest.



Starting to get some banding structures too.
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430. IKE
Hour 96....


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That area in the Caribbean looks even better than yesterday.
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Quoting tropicfreak:
Last few frames, some very cold cloudtops, can't believe they didn't issue a special TWO for this, guess they are waiting until the official start of hurricane season tomorrow.

NHC runs on GMT season starts in just under 5 hrs
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wow. 400+ comments already?

Tis the season.

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Quoting DestinJeff:


No, but she does speak Jive.


Chump don't want no help, chump don't get no help.
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Quoting Buhdog:


Thank you Patrap! This is my wifes company....We make no money (spent A whole lot) but it is nice to see people know it is out there like yourself! Maybe it will save a life one day.



Hurricane Preparation 2011

Its a good thing fer sure.

Thanks for the url.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
Hurricane season? Bring it on!
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Really cold cloud tops with the Caribbean AOI..We'll be getting a TWO later on tonight or tomorrow at the latest.



Getting organized a lot faster than I thought it would...I believe we will have TD #1 by Sunday.
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Paul: Stilgar, do we have wormsign?
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
Quoting Patrap:
"Think outside the Cone" hurricanebuddy.com


Thank you Patrap! This is my wifes company....We make no money (spent A whole lot) but it is nice to see people know it is out there like yourself! Maybe it will save a life one day.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Its...

* A low

* A MCS low

* An area of thunderstorms

Different opinions from different people.

Its a cluster of thunderstorms mixed in with an MCS, which is a certain variety of a "low" pressure system that is generally short-lived, and NOT GOING TO DEVELOP.
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Quoting IKE:
SW of Jamaica....hour 72....12Z ECMWF...a little stronger......




Note that on this run, the ECMWF has a much weaker trough out in the NW Atlantic. This could play a crucial role in the future.
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5169
There is some circulation to that blob off NC.
Rainbow Loop Eastern US
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AOI/XX/XXL
MARK
13.01N/80.03W


2011 Storms
All Active Year


Atlantic

East Pacific

Central Pacific

West Pacific
91W.INVEST
90W.INVEST

Indian Ocean

Southern Hemisphere

Fleet Weather Center Norfolk Tropical Feed
No Active Tropical Warnings in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf of Mexico
By Maritime.CDO@navy.mil (FWC-N CDO) from Fleet Weather Center Norfolk Virginia. Published on Tue, May 31, 2011.

As of Tue, 31 May 2011 19:15:01 GMT
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416. Skyepony (Mod)
Fresh ASCAT
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
Whats that blob off North Carolina?


Its...

* A low

* A MCS low

* An area of thunderstorms

Different opinions from different people. In all seriousness, its the leftovers from yesterdays thunderstorm complex in the NE.
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
Whats that blob off North Carolina?


Thats the remnant convective complex from the bow echo that rushed through the Northeast yesterday. Its rotating around the high pressure ridge over the SE US.
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5169
413. IKE
SW of Jamaica....hour 72....12Z ECMWF...a little stronger......


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It's becoming more clear that we've got a real player on our hands here.
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Last few frames, some very cold cloudtops, can't believe they didn't issue a special TWO for this, guess they are waiting until the official start of hurricane season tomorrow.

Caribbean Rainbow Loop
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
Whats that blob off North Carolina?


Depends on who you ask
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Whats that blob off North Carolina?
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406. IKE
12Z ECMWF @ 48 hours....


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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
UKMET Office forecast:

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 31.05.2011



NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 13.0N 80.2W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 02.06.2011 13.0N 80.2W WEAK

00UTC 03.06.2011 13.9N 79.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 03.06.2011 14.6N 78.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 04.06.2011 15.1N 78.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 04.06.2011 16.1N 78.7W WEAK STRENGTHENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 05.06.2011 15.9N 78.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 05.06.2011 17.1N 79.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 06.06.2011 17.9N 78.6W MODERATE STRENGTHENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 06.06.2011 18.4N 79.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE




Seems like a very reasonable forecast. Right now, the UKMET is my preferred model due to the fact that it has maintained remarkable consistency for several days now from run to run.
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5169
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Quoting twincomanche:
I was surprised to see that for all the talk of drought in Florida that at least at Page field in Ft. Myers we are right about on the average. It seems drier just across the river in the Cape.


Very typical for this time of the year....when the ridge gets stronger the storms that propagate from the seabreeze will all make it over the cost and give us in the cape our usual rain. Takes till about the middle to end of june.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Areas to watch

1.) Southwestern Caribbean

My opinion: Eventual development



2.) Off the coast of NC
My opinion: No development



2.) Wave off Africa
My opinion: Unclear...potential development in Caribbean later down the road?




It'll be hard considering it'll have to fight with the hostile conditions. It's a tiny thing too.
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Quoting IKE:

By the Caymans...moving WNW...on the end of the run.


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399. IKE

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Ike, do you think at least a floater be up before is gets invest status?
Could be.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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