Caribbean disturbance slow to develop; 5 EF-5 tornadoes this year confirmed

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:33 PM GMT on June 03, 2011

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The tropical disturbance (Invest 93L) that crossed over Florida on Wednesday, bringing welcome rains of 1 - 3 inches, is now a naked swirl of low clouds over the central Gulf of Mexico. The disturbance is embedded in a large area of dry air associated with an upper level low pressure system, and this dry air is discouraging development. 93L is also moving into a region of moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and NHC is giving 93L a 0% chance of developing into a tropical depression before the storm makes landfall in Mexico south of Brownsville on Saturday. There are a few heavy thunderstorms trying to fire up near the center of 93L's fairly well-formed circulation, but I don't think this storm is going to bring more than 1 - 2 inches of rain to the coast on Saturday.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the Central Caribbean disturbance.

Central Caribbean disturbance 94L
Disorganized heavy thunderstorm activity continues in the region between Central America and Jamaica. Wind shear has fallen to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, and is predicted to continue to fall over the next two days. This should allow the disturbance, dubbed Invest 94L by NHC on Friday afternoon, to increase in organization, though it will take many days for it to approach tropical depression status, since it is so large and poorly organized. The last two runs of the NOGAPS model have developed the disturbance into a tropical depression or storm by early next week, with the system moving northwards into Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and eastern Cuba. The other major models do not show the disturbance developing during the coming week. NHC is giving the disturbance a 10% of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday. A surge of moisture accompanying a tropical wave may aid development when the wave arrives in the Western Caribbean on Sunday. Water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 29°C, which is plenty warm enough to support development of a tropical storm. Residents of Jamaica, eastern Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic should anticipate the possibility that heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches may affect them today through Sunday.

Five EF-5 tornadoes confirmed in 2011
The National Weather Service in Oklahoma City announced Wednesday that the violent tornado that hit Binger, El Reno, Peidmont, and Guthrie, Oklahoma on May 24, killing nine people, was an EF-5 with winds greater than 210 mph. The rating was given based on measurements made by a University of Oklahoma portable "Doppler on wheels" radar. The long track, large wedge tornado caused extensive damage, with well built houses cleanly swept from their foundation and trees debarked. This tornado brings the total number of EF-5 tornadoes this year to five, tying 2011 with 1953 for 2nd place for greatest number of these top-end tornadoes in one year. Only 1974 (six) had more. The EF-5 tornadoes of 2011:

1) The April 27, 2011 Neshoba/Kemper/Winston/Noxubee Counties, Mississippi tornado (3 killed, 29 mile path length.)

2) The April 27, 2011 Smithville, Mississippi tornado (22 killed, 15 mile path length.)

3) The April 27, 2011 Hackleburg, Alabama tornado (71 killed, 25 mile path length.)

4) The May 22, 2011 Joplin Missouri tornado (138 killed, 14 mile path length.)

5) The May 24, 2011 Binger-El Reno-Peidmont-Guthrie, Oklahoma tornado. (9 killed, 75 mile path length.)


Figure 2. Aerial view of damage from the May 22, 2011 Joplin, Missouri tornado. Image credit: Wikipedia.

A few other remarkable statistics on the tornado season of 2011, compiled from NOAA's official press release and Wikipedia's excellent tornado pages:

- The April 25 - 28 tornado outbreak, with 330 tornadoes, was the largest tornado outbreak of three days or less duration on record. The previous record was 148 tornadoes, set during the April 3 - 4, 1974 Super Outbreak.

- For April 27, 186 tornadoes have been confirmed. This is the largest 1-day tornado total on record, beating the 148 recorded in 24 hours on April 3 - 4, 1974.

- The April 14 - 16 tornado outbreak, with 162 confirmed tornadoes, ranks as the fourth largest tornado outbreak of three days or less duration on record.

- The May 21 - 26 tornado outbreak, with 158 confirmed tornadoes, ranks as the 5th largest 6-day or shorter tornado outbreak on record. A May 2003 6-day outbreak had 289 tornadoes, and a May 2004 6-day outbreak had 229 tornadoes. The year 2011 now has three of the top five tornado outbreaks on record.

- April confirmed tornado total was 683, making it the busiest tornado month on record. The previous record was 542 tornadoes, set in May 2003. The previous April record was 267 tornadoes, which occurred in April 1974. The 30-year average for April tornadoes is 135.

- If the three deaths in Massachusetts from Wednesday's tornadoes are confirmed, this year's tornado death toll will be 522, beating 1953 as the deadliest tornado year since modern tornado records began. That year, 519 people died, and three heavily populated cities received direct hits by violent tornadoes. Waco, Texas (114 killed), Flint, Michigan (115 killed), and Worcester, Massachusetts (90 killed) all were hit by violent F-4 or F-5 tornadoes. A similar bad tornado year occurred in 1936, when violent tornadoes hit Tupelo Mississippi (216 killed), and Gainesville, Georgia (203 killed.) During that time period, the tornado death rate per million people was 60 - 70 times as great as in the year 2000 (Figure 4), implying that this year's tornadoes would have killed many thousands of people had we not had our modern tornado modern warning system.

- The May 22, 2011 Joplin, Missouri tornado killed 138 people and injured 1150, making it the deadliest U.S. tornado since 1947, and 8th deadliest in history. The $1 - $3 billion estimate of insured damage makes it the most expensive tornado in history.

- Damage from the April 25 - 28 super tornado outbreak was estimated at $3.5 - $6 billion, making it the most expensive tornado outbreak of all-time.

- The tornado that hit Springfield, Massachusetts on June 1 was at least an EF-3 with 136 - 165 mph winds. It was only the 9th EF-3 or stronger tornado to hit Massachusetts since 1950, and the third deadliest, with three deaths.

- The year 2011 now ranks in 3rd place behind 1974 and 1965 for highest number of strong to violent EF-3, EF-4, and EF-5 tornadoes (Figure 3.)


Figure 3. Number of strong to violent EF-3, EF-4 and EF-5 tornadoes from 1950 to 2011. The year 2011 now ranks in 3rd place behind 1974 and 1965. There is not a decades-long increasing trend in the numbers of these most dangerous of tornadoes. Image credit: NOAA/National Climatic Data Center (updated using stats for 2008 - 2011 from Wikipedia.)


Figure 4. Death rate per million people per year in U.S., 1875-2000. Thin line with dots is raw rate, curved thick line is death rate, filtered by 3-point median and 5-point running mean filter, and straight solid lines are least squares fit to filtered death rate for 1875-1925 and 1925-2000. Dashed lines are estimates of 10th and 90th percentile death rates from 1925-2000. The death rate fell from 8 per million to .12 per million between 1940 and 2000. Image credit: A Brief History of Deaths from Tornadoes in the United States, Harold Brooks and Charles Doswell III.

Joplin tornado the 7th U.S. billion-dollar weather disaster of 2011
The Joplin tornado is the 7th U.S. weather disaster of 2011 costing more than a billion dollars. With a major flooding disaster coming on the Missouri River, and hurricane season still to come, 2011 has an excellent chance of beating 2008's record of nine billion-dollar weather disasters. The billion dollar weather disasters of 2011 so far:

1) 2011 Groundhog Day's blizzard ($1- $4 billion)
2) April 3 -5 Southeast U.S. severe weather outbreak ($2 billion)
3) April 8 - 11 severe weather outbreak ($2.25 billion)
4) April 25 - 28 super tornado outbreak ($3.5 - $6 billion)
5) Mississippi River flood of 2011 ($9 billion)
6) Texas drought ($1.2 billion)
7) Joplin tornado ($1 - $3 billion)


Figure 5. River flood outlook for the U.S. Image credit: NOAA.

The next U.S. billion-dollar weather disaster: a Missouri River flood?
A great 100-year flood has arrived along the Missouri River and its tributaries from Montana to Nebraska. Record spring rains, combined with snow melt from record or near-record winter and spring snows, brought the Missouri River at Williston, North Dakota to 27.9' yesterday, just an inch short of the highest crest on record (28.0' on 4/01/1912.) Tributaries to the Missouri, such as the Souris River in North Dakota and the North Platte River in Nebraska, are already flooding at all-time record heights. With warm summer temperatures and additional rainfall expected over much of the area during the coming week, snow melt and rain runoff will swell area rivers even further, creating a damaging 100-year flood. Wunderground weather historian Christopher C. Burt has the details in his latest post, and I will be writing more on this latest epic flood next week.

I'll have a new post on Monday, or earlier if the Caribbean disturbance shows significant development.

Jeff Masters

Joplin Tornado Damage (thebige)
Joplin Tornado Damage
And Bigger.... (weatherfanatic2010)
Here it is turning into a monster.
And Bigger....

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Quoting Hurrykane:


Levi, where is that graphic located?

Right here
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Quoting TomTaylor:
yes, which means less dust/weaker Saharan Air Layer.

Cooler gulf of guinea also means a greater temperature difference between the gulf and the Sahara, meaning a greater pressure difference, meaning a stronger AEJ, meaning stronger tropical waves.


Exactly
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Quoting tropicfreak:


Vorticies have shifted east.


Doesn't mean anything unless its reflected in surface observations.
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5169
2570. j2008
I think it looks like 94 has created a new circulation in the middle of all its convection, this might put it at a TD. Also what do you guys think about 91 over in the EPAC?
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2569. srada
Hello Everyone..Looks like 94L still hanging in there..
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If I had to pick a model to go with is the UKMET it has been the most consistent of the global models.

Here is Tuesday morning.


And Thursday morning.


Beyond that time frame is a tough call because the GFS forecast for the shear to increase and the Euro has the subtropical jet stream in the North Western Caribbean.
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Quoting cchsweatherman:


No surface observations currently support a reforming low anywhere under the convection to the east of the current low.


Vorticies have shifted east.
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Right where the anticyclone is is where the new LLC is forming, the Vortmax is centered is right under the Anticyclone, the New Circulation is around 15.8 North, 77 West
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Quoting blsealevel:


Where did you get that radar?
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Quoting Hurrykane:


Agreed...cooling in the Gulf of Guinea reduces rainfall in the Guinea region, allowing for a shift north of the ITCZ in that area I believe, moistening the Sahel
yes, which means less dust/weaker Saharan Air Layer.

Cooler gulf of guinea also means a greater temperature difference between the gulf and the Sahara, meaning a greater pressure difference, meaning a stronger AEJ, meaning stronger tropical waves.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hey guys I have to step out but before I go I see we may have a COC reforming in one of these two locations
16.0N 77.5W or just ESE-E of that location near the blow-up of convection and the orignal one looks to be flantening out or becoming elongated


No surface observations currently support a reforming low anywhere under the convection to the east of the current low.
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5169
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
to back that up the 850 vort map shows the strongest part has shifted E bound
now

6 hours ago

12 hours ago


Good evidence to support your previous comment.
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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
423 PM CDT SAT JUN 4 2011

LAC005-033-047-063-121-042145-
/O.CON.KLIX.SV.W.0100.000000T0000Z-110604T2145Z/
ASCENSION LA-WEST BATON ROUGE LA-EAST BATON ROUGE LA-LIVINGSTON LA-
IBERVILLE LA-
423 PM CDT SAT JUN 4 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM CDT
FOR EAST CENTRAL IBERVILLE...WEST CENTRAL LIVINGSTON...SOUTHERN EAST
BATON ROUGE...SOUTHEASTERN WEST BATON ROUGE AND NORTH CENTRAL
ASCENSION PARISHES...

AT 418 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO
DETECT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR GARDERE...OR NEAR OAK HILLS PLACE...MOVING WEST AT 15
TO 20 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO PORT
ALLEN...BRUSLY AND ADDIS

LAT...LON 3029 9124 3047 9133 3052 9094 3031 9088
TIME...MOT...LOC 2123Z 073DEG 14KT 3034 9116
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to back that up the 850 vort map shows the strongest part has shifted E bound
now

6 hours ago

12 hours ago
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12710
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Quoting Barefootontherocks:


The station did not affiliate with Fox until many years after Breck secured his position at WVUE. Weatherman Bob Breck completes his 30th year on the air

You seem vaguely familiar. Maybe you're blogging from the state of Georgia.
...

As for 94L, on sat loops, it hasn't looked like anything yet except a broad monsoonal area.

93L was very interesting to watch.


+1 good job there BF.. I wondered that too!
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94L Floater Visible Loop

I think you're right wunderkid.
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2555. Levi32
Quoting IKE:
SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
530 PM EDT SAT JUN 04 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 16N78W REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
IN THE W CARIBBEAN WITH A TRAILING TROUGH REACHING FROM THE LOW
TO NEAR CENTRAL PANAMA. THESE FEATURES WILL LINGER IN THE SAME
GENERAL AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHILE THE LOW MAY
DEVELOP INTO A POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE.
A TROPICAL WAVE S OF
17N ALONG 60W WILL ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN TONIGHT LIFTING NE AS A
TROUGH SUN NIGHT THROUGH THU. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER
THE TROPICAL N ATLC SUN...THEN INTO THE E CARIBBEAN MON BEFORE
MERGING WITH THE TROUGH.


I am somewhat surprised that the NHC is maintaining this type of language with no model support. It is something I have come not to expect from them. It is nice to see them differing some from the model consensus.
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2554. Levi32
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hey guys I have to step out but before I go I see we may have a COC reforming in one of these two locations
16.0N 77.5W or just ESE-E of that location near the blow-up of convection and the orignal one looks to be flantening out or becoming elongated


The circulation is elongated WNW-ESE in general with an extension towards the NE tip of the Honduras/Nicaragua coastline.
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Quoting IKE:
SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
530 PM EDT SAT JUN 04 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 16N78W REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
IN THE W CARIBBEAN WITH A TRAILING TROUGH REACHING FROM THE LOW
TO NEAR CENTRAL PANAMA. THESE FEATURES WILL LINGER IN THE SAME
GENERAL AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHILE THE LOW MAY
DEVELOP INTO A POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE.
A TROPICAL WAVE S OF
17N ALONG 60W WILL ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN TONIGHT LIFTING NE AS A
TROUGH SUN NIGHT THROUGH THU. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER
THE TROPICAL N ATLC SUN...THEN INTO THE E CARIBBEAN MON BEFORE
MERGING WITH THE TROUGH.


Thanks IKE.
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hey guys I have to step out but before I go I see we may have a COC reforming in one of these two locations
16.0N 77.5W or just ESE-E of that location near the blow-up of convection and the orignal one looks to be flantening out or becoming elongated


I agree, that will help in development of 94L somewhat.
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Still lacking PVA at 500mb

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2550. IKE
SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
530 PM EDT SAT JUN 04 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 16N78W REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
IN THE W CARIBBEAN WITH A TRAILING TROUGH REACHING FROM THE LOW
TO NEAR CENTRAL PANAMA. THESE FEATURES WILL LINGER IN THE SAME
GENERAL AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHILE THE LOW MAY
DEVELOP INTO A POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE.
A TROPICAL WAVE S OF
17N ALONG 60W WILL ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN TONIGHT LIFTING NE AS A
TROUGH SUN NIGHT THROUGH THU. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER
THE TROPICAL N ATLC SUN...THEN INTO THE E CARIBBEAN MON BEFORE
MERGING WITH THE TROUGH.
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Wunderkid, I AGREE
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1800z

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hey guys I have to step out but before I go I see we may have a COC reforming in one of these two locations
16.0N 77.5W or just ESE-E of that location near the blow-up of convection and the orignal one looks to be flantening out or becoming elongated
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12710
Quoting Levi32:


It's quite dry above 700mb by the time you get to the Cayman Islands.



Levi, where is that graphic located?
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
502 PM AST SAT JUN 4 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITY

IN PUERTO RICO
UTUADO

* UNTIL 745 PM AST

* HEAVY RAINS ON THE RIO LIMON BASIN HAS CAUSED SHARP RISES ON THE
RIVER. AT 450 PM AST...THE RIVER WAS AT 12.62 FEET AND RISING
RAPIDLY. IN ADDITION...LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED
SOME FLOODING ALONG ROADS AND MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.
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Quoting PcolaDan:


well I wouldn't


lol!
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2541. Levi32
18z surface analysis:

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Quoting GiovannaDatoli:
Here's another view. They will have to up the percentage on the TWO.



I see no reason for them to increase the chances for development within the next 48 hours. In fact, I see more reason for them to decrease the chances or maintain the current chance.
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5169
Giovanna... Why is that? there is no real reason to.
I dont believe that the circulation is moving, it appears that if it is it slowly moving. I think that its broad enough to where people cant quite pin point where the acually center is thats why it appears that its moving away from the system. If it is indeed leaving the convection behind the Tropical Wave Approaching will aid in moistening the atmosphere around 94L, as well as help with a new LLC forming.
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Quoting Levi32:


It most certainly will if it continues, and of course the ECMWF shifted its philosophy on that region for the heart of the hurricane season, which may offer us more Cape Verde activity should the gulf remain cold.


Agreed...cooling in the Gulf of Guinea reduces rainfall in the Guinea region, allowing for a shift north of the ITCZ in that area I believe, moistening the Sahel
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Quoting IKE:
Here comes the seabreeze front. Here comes some showers from the NE....heading SW....please bring me rain. It's 99.7 outside my window....




well I wouldn't
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2536. Levi32
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Levi, apart from 94L, I want you to look at the cooling that continues in the Gulf of Guinea. I guess this will have implications as time goes by towards the peak of the season.



It most certainly will if it continues, and of course the ECMWF shifted its philosophy on that region for the heart of the hurricane season, which may offer us more Cape Verde activity should the gulf remain cold.
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2535. HarryMc
Quoting Levi32:
Buoy 42058 is still working on Coolwx as of 21z reports:





Agree. Just checked the NOAA NDBC; it and LCIY2 a little east of there are both still active at least so far. LCIY2 is currently showing about 20 knots.
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2534. Levi32
Quoting DamagingWinds:
Are pressures dropping, levi?


They are more or less steady, as they have been for days.

Quoting Hurrykane:


Exactly...good to see you today, Levi!


Good to see you too Hurry.
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Levi, apart from 94L, I want you to look at the cooling that continues in the Gulf of Guinea. I guess this will have implications as time goes by towards the peak of the season.

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2532. Levi32
Quoting GiovannaDatoli:
Water vapor looks to me to have a very wet atmospheric field to use.



It's quite dry above 700mb by the time you get to the Cayman Islands.

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Quoting Levi32:


Indeed, which is why it must be watched closely. However, with every model now keeping it as weak or weaker than it is now, one must start hunting for a reason why. I think the lack of a focused convergent pattern in the Caribbean is the main reason, along with a bit more dry air than wanted, but we shall see. It could still pull a surprise. It has a whole lot of time left to try.


Exactly...good to see you today, Levi!
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Are pressures dropping, levi?
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2529. aquak9
poor ike...I think my yard sprinkler gives off a bigger radar sig than that...
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 175 Comments: 26462
Here's another view. They will have to up the percentage on the TWO.

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Quoting cchsweatherman:


Never heard of a tropical wave coming from the west.


Meant east, apologize.
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Quoting tropicfreak:


Masters will probably update tomorrow or Monday. Tomorrow is on 94L's side as a tropical wave is moving in from the west to aide 94L in development.


Never heard of a tropical wave coming from the west.
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5169
Water vapor looks to me to have a very wet atmospheric field to use.

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2524. IKE
Here comes the seabreeze front. Here comes some showers from the NE....heading SW....please bring me rain. It's 99.7 outside my window....


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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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