Caribbean disturbance slow to develop; 5 EF-5 tornadoes this year confirmed
The tropical disturbance (Invest 93L) that crossed over Florida on Wednesday, bringing welcome rains of 1 - 3 inches, is now a naked swirl of low clouds over the central Gulf of Mexico. The disturbance is embedded in a large area of dry air associated with an upper level low pressure system, and this dry air is discouraging development. 93L is also moving into a region of moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and NHC is giving 93L a 0% chance of developing into a tropical depression before the storm makes landfall in Mexico south of Brownsville on Saturday. There are a few heavy thunderstorms trying to fire up near the center of 93L's fairly well-formed circulation, but I don't think this storm is going to bring more than 1 - 2 inches of rain to the coast on Saturday.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the Central Caribbean disturbance.
Central Caribbean disturbance 94L
Disorganized heavy thunderstorm activity continues in the region between Central America and Jamaica. Wind shear has fallen to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, and is predicted to continue to fall over the next two days. This should allow the disturbance, dubbed Invest 94L by NHC on Friday afternoon, to increase in organization, though it will take many days for it to approach tropical depression status, since it is so large and poorly organized. The last two runs of the NOGAPS model have developed the disturbance into a tropical depression or storm by early next week, with the system moving northwards into Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and eastern Cuba. The other major models do not show the disturbance developing during the coming week. NHC is giving the disturbance a 10% of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday. A surge of moisture accompanying a tropical wave may aid development when the wave arrives in the Western Caribbean on Sunday. Water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 29°C, which is plenty warm enough to support development of a tropical storm. Residents of Jamaica, eastern Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic should anticipate the possibility that heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches may affect them today through Sunday.
Five EF-5 tornadoes confirmed in 2011
The National Weather Service in Oklahoma City announced Wednesday that the violent tornado that hit Binger, El Reno, Peidmont, and Guthrie, Oklahoma on May 24, killing nine people, was an EF-5 with winds greater than 210 mph. The rating was given based on measurements made by a University of Oklahoma portable "Doppler on wheels" radar. The long track, large wedge tornado caused extensive damage, with well built houses cleanly swept from their foundation and trees debarked. This tornado brings the total number of EF-5 tornadoes this year to five, tying 2011 with 1953 for 2nd place for greatest number of these top-end tornadoes in one year. Only 1974 (six) had more. The EF-5 tornadoes of 2011:
1) The April 27, 2011 Neshoba/Kemper/Winston/Noxubee Counties, Mississippi tornado (3 killed, 29 mile path length.)
2) The April 27, 2011 Smithville, Mississippi tornado (22 killed, 15 mile path length.)
3) The April 27, 2011 Hackleburg, Alabama tornado (71 killed, 25 mile path length.)
4) The May 22, 2011 Joplin Missouri tornado (138 killed, 14 mile path length.)
5) The May 24, 2011 Binger-El Reno-Peidmont-Guthrie, Oklahoma tornado. (9 killed, 75 mile path length.)
Figure 2. Aerial view of damage from the May 22, 2011 Joplin, Missouri tornado. Image credit: Wikipedia.
A few other remarkable statistics on the tornado season of 2011, compiled from NOAA's official press release and Wikipedia's excellent tornado pages:
- The April 25 - 28 tornado outbreak, with 330 tornadoes, was the largest tornado outbreak of three days or less duration on record. The previous record was 148 tornadoes, set during the April 3 - 4, 1974 Super Outbreak.
- For April 27, 186 tornadoes have been confirmed. This is the largest 1-day tornado total on record, beating the 148 recorded in 24 hours on April 3 - 4, 1974.
- The April 14 - 16 tornado outbreak, with 162 confirmed tornadoes, ranks as the fourth largest tornado outbreak of three days or less duration on record.
- The May 21 - 26 tornado outbreak, with 158 confirmed tornadoes, ranks as the 5th largest 6-day or shorter tornado outbreak on record. A May 2003 6-day outbreak had 289 tornadoes, and a May 2004 6-day outbreak had 229 tornadoes. The year 2011 now has three of the top five tornado outbreaks on record.
- April confirmed tornado total was 683, making it the busiest tornado month on record. The previous record was 542 tornadoes, set in May 2003. The previous April record was 267 tornadoes, which occurred in April 1974. The 30-year average for April tornadoes is 135.
- If the three deaths in Massachusetts from Wednesday's tornadoes are confirmed, this year's tornado death toll will be 522, beating 1953 as the deadliest tornado year since modern tornado records began. That year, 519 people died, and three heavily populated cities received direct hits by violent tornadoes. Waco, Texas (114 killed), Flint, Michigan (115 killed), and Worcester, Massachusetts (90 killed) all were hit by violent F-4 or F-5 tornadoes. A similar bad tornado year occurred in 1936, when violent tornadoes hit Tupelo Mississippi (216 killed), and Gainesville, Georgia (203 killed.) During that time period, the tornado death rate per million people was 60 - 70 times as great as in the year 2000 (Figure 4), implying that this year's tornadoes would have killed many thousands of people had we not had our modern tornado modern warning system.
- The May 22, 2011 Joplin, Missouri tornado killed 138 people and injured 1150, making it the deadliest U.S. tornado since 1947, and 8th deadliest in history. The $1 - $3 billion estimate of insured damage makes it the most expensive tornado in history.
- Damage from the April 25 - 28 super tornado outbreak was estimated at $3.5 - $6 billion, making it the most expensive tornado outbreak of all-time.
- The tornado that hit Springfield, Massachusetts on June 1 was at least an EF-3 with 136 - 165 mph winds. It was only the 9th EF-3 or stronger tornado to hit Massachusetts since 1950, and the third deadliest, with three deaths.
- The year 2011 now ranks in 3rd place behind 1974 and 1965 for highest number of strong to violent EF-3, EF-4, and EF-5 tornadoes (Figure 3.)
Figure 3. Number of strong to violent EF-3, EF-4 and EF-5 tornadoes from 1950 to 2011. The year 2011 now ranks in 3rd place behind 1974 and 1965. There is not a decades-long increasing trend in the numbers of these most dangerous of tornadoes. Image credit: NOAA/National Climatic Data Center (updated using stats for 2008 - 2011 from Wikipedia.)
Figure 4. Death rate per million people per year in U.S., 1875-2000. Thin line with dots is raw rate, curved thick line is death rate, filtered by 3-point median and 5-point running mean filter, and straight solid lines are least squares fit to filtered death rate for 1875-1925 and 1925-2000. Dashed lines are estimates of 10th and 90th percentile death rates from 1925-2000. The death rate fell from 8 per million to .12 per million between 1940 and 2000. Image credit: A Brief History of Deaths from Tornadoes in the United States, Harold Brooks and Charles Doswell III.
Joplin tornado the 7th U.S. billion-dollar weather disaster of 2011
The Joplin tornado is the 7th U.S. weather disaster of 2011 costing more than a billion dollars. With a major flooding disaster coming on the Missouri River, and hurricane season still to come, 2011 has an excellent chance of beating 2008's record of nine billion-dollar weather disasters. The billion dollar weather disasters of 2011 so far:
1) 2011 Groundhog Day's blizzard ($1- $4 billion)
2) April 3 -5 Southeast U.S. severe weather outbreak ($2 billion)
3) April 8 - 11 severe weather outbreak ($2.25 billion)
4) April 25 - 28 super tornado outbreak ($3.5 - $6 billion)
5) Mississippi River flood of 2011 ($9 billion)
6) Texas drought ($1.2 billion)
7) Joplin tornado ($1 - $3 billion)
Figure 5. River flood outlook for the U.S. Image credit: NOAA.
The next U.S. billion-dollar weather disaster: a Missouri River flood?
A great 100-year flood has arrived along the Missouri River and its tributaries from Montana to Nebraska. Record spring rains, combined with snow melt from record or near-record winter and spring snows, brought the Missouri River at Williston, North Dakota to 27.9' yesterday, just an inch short of the highest crest on record (28.0' on 4/01/1912.) Tributaries to the Missouri, such as the Souris River in North Dakota and the North Platte River in Nebraska, are already flooding at all-time record heights. With warm summer temperatures and additional rainfall expected over much of the area during the coming week, snow melt and rain runoff will swell area rivers even further, creating a damaging 100-year flood. Wunderground weather historian Christopher C. Burt has the details in his latest post, and I will be writing more on this latest epic flood next week.
I'll have a new post on Monday, or earlier if the Caribbean disturbance shows significant development.
Jeff Masters
Here it is turning into a monster.
Reader Comments
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Blog update:
Tropical Tidbit for Saturday, June 4th, with Video
Would rather wait and see how the next few runs go before saying definitively one way or another. Still have days to watch this system.
But I can say this. Based upon all the computer models I've seen thus far, it appears, regardless of development of Invest 94L, that a wetter weather pattern will build for South Florida mid to late next week and could bring about the long awaited start to the rainy season here.
*Scratches Head*
ok first off invests do not form, they are designated
second, this is invest 91E
Jamaica station
Owen roberts
Should be noted that all them show a pretty weak system.
THANKS PROFESSOR !
I SEE, ITS REALLY GOOD
WHXX01 KMIA 041848
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1848 UTC SAT JUN 4 2011
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP912011) 20110604 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
110604 1800 110605 0600 110605 1800 110606 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.6N 98.2W 10.9N 99.0W 11.1N 100.0W 11.3N 101.1W
BAMD 10.6N 98.2W 10.8N 98.6W 11.1N 99.4W 11.4N 100.3W
BAMM 10.6N 98.2W 10.6N 98.6W 10.8N 99.5W 11.1N 100.3W
LBAR 10.6N 98.2W 10.8N 98.4W 11.5N 99.1W 12.7N 99.9W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 33KTS 42KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 33KTS 42KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
110606 1800 110607 1800 110608 1800 110609 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.5N 102.1W 11.9N 103.2W 12.2N 103.6W 13.2N 103.9W
BAMD 11.9N 101.2W 12.8N 103.3W 13.7N 105.6W 14.1N 108.2W
BAMM 11.5N 101.0W 12.0N 102.7W 12.6N 104.1W 13.4N 105.5W
LBAR 14.4N 100.5W 19.4N 101.2W 23.6N 100.7W 24.8N 99.0W
SHIP 53KTS 72KTS 80KTS 81KTS
DSHP 53KTS 72KTS 80KTS 81KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.6N LONCUR = 98.2W DIRCUR = 0DEG SPDCUR = 0KT
LATM12 = 10.3N LONM12 = 98.2W DIRM12 = 342DEG SPDM12 = 2KT
LATM24 = 10.0N LONM24 = 98.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
$$
NNNN
Where have I heard that line before.
MARK
16.36n/78.88w
Hey xcool. Hope you are busy getting those maps out. Looks like a busy season.
Caps please.
101 °F
BAMM takes it straight over Lake Okechobee.
MARK
11.53n/102.38w
You did not see? NWS Miami has already declared the start of the rainy season.
now that's funny
Quien es?
Next update from NHC at 8 PM EDT.
TCF 30% now.
a. still 30%
b. 40-50%
c. 50%
d. 60%
e. lower than 30%
Think it could be (b)
1st name storm?
Couldnt have said it better and am in total agreeance.
ABPZ20 KNHC 041747
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SAT JUN 4 2011
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BROW
Until convection starts flaring its A or D despite the atmosphere becoming more favorable for development.
95L too???
Looks like it could do it. With the continuous model agreement and slightly raised intensity scale, not out of the question. Are you North of me or South? I forget.
Station LCIY2
Integrated Coral Observing Network (ICON)
Location: 19.699N 80.061W
Conditions as of:
Sat, 04 Jun 2011 18:00:00 UTC
Winds: ENE (70°) at 15.9 kt gusting to 20.0 kt
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.83 in and falling
Air Temperature: 82.2 F
Dew Point: 75.6 F
Water Temperature: 83.5 F
I agree.
I did not see that. Note in the publication that it states:
" The start of this rainy season is quite a bit more uncertain than usual due to the peculiar nature of the weather patterns observed across South Florida since mid-April."
No Active Tropical Warnings in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf of Mexico
By Maritime.CDO@navy.mil (FWC-N CDO) from Fleet Weather Center Norfolk Virginia. Published on Sat, Jun 04, 2011.
As of Sat, 04 Jun 2011 19:15:01 GMT
2011 Storms
All Active Year
Atlantic
94L.INVEST
93L.INVEST (DEACTIVATED)
East Pacific
91E.INVEST
Central Pacific
West Pacific
92W.INVEST
Indian Ocean
98A.INVEST
Southern Hemisphere
Viewing: 2251 - 2301
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