Caribbean disturbance 94L dumping heavy rains on Jamaica
A large, wet, and disorganized tropical disturbance (Invest 94L) continues to spread heavy rain to the Central Caribbean near Jamaica. Rain has fallen continuously at Jamaica's Kingston Norman Manley Airport since midnight, with 1.89" having fallen from midnight to noon local time. Sustained winds of 24 mph also affected Kingston between 7am and 8am this morning. Satellite-estimated rainfall amounts of 1.4" per hour occurred in ocean regions 100 miles to the southeast of Kingston this morning, and heavy rains of up to 1/2" per hour are probably affecting portions of Jamaica early this afternoon, judging by the recent increase in heavy thunderstorm activity seen on visible satellite loops. This imagery also shows a slow increase in organization of 94L in recent hours, with spiral bands beginning to develop to the southeast of the center. There is a broad, poorly-defined circulation apparent that is not well enough defined to make 94L a tropical depression. Water vapor satellite loops show a region of dry air on the west side of 94L, and this dry air is interfering with the storm's organization. However, upper air balloon soundings from Kingston and the Cayman Islands taken at 8am EDT this morning show much moister air at mid levels of the atmosphere compared to Saturday (2% humidity at 500 mb on Saturday, compared to 49% this morning at Grand Cayman), and 94L appears to be gradually overcoming its dry air issues. Wind shear remains in the moderate range, 15 - 20 knots, and is predicted by the SHIPS model to remain below 20 knots through Tuesday morning. Water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 28 - 28.5°C, which is 2°C above the threshold needed to support development of a tropical storm.
Figure 1. Rainfall rates of up to 1.4" per hour (pink colors) were estimated by the F-15 satellite for 94L at 6:02am EDT Jun 5, 2011.
Since 94L is so large and is battling dry air, it is taking its sweet time to develop, and today's mission by the Hurricane Hunters has been cancelled. A new mission is scheduled for Monday afternoon at 2pm EDT. This morning's 06Z model runs are pretty unimpressed with 94L, with most of them showing little or no development. At 2pm EDT on Sunday, NHC gave the disturbance a 40% of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. If 94L stays to the south, its chances of development are greater, since a band of very high wind shear of 30 - 50 knots lies over Cuba and the southern Bahama Islands. The disturbance is expected to meander slowly westward or northward over the next two days, with Jamaica and southeastern Cuba being the primary targets for very heavy rains of 4 - 8 inches through Tuesday. Haiti and Central Cuba can expect somewhat lesser rains of 3 - 6 inches. If 94L does develop into a tropical depression and moves northwards over Cuba by Wednesday, I don't see the storm attaining hurricane strength, due to the high wind shear. The primary threat from 94L will be very heavy rains, capable of causing life-threatening flash flooding.
Figure 2. Afternoon satellite image of the Central Caribbean disturbance 94L.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Look at the BAMD, takes it to GA, have never heard of a tropical system making landfall in GA in a while.
F
i no was this giveimg him a warning i would hate too see any one ban for 24hrs
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
530 PM EDT SUN JUN 05 2011
.SYNOPSIS...A NEARLY STATIONARY WEAK 1007 MB LOW IS NEAR 17N79W
WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING S FROM THE LOW TO NEAR CENTRAL PANAMA.
THESE FEATURES WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE N THROUGH THE WEEK...
WHILE THE LOW HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A POSSIBLE
TROPICAL CYCLONE. BROAD TROUGHING IS IN THE NORTHERN TROPICAL N
ATLC FROM 20N55W TO 19N65W WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE SOUTHERN
PORTION S OF 15N ALONG 57W. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL LIFT NW
MERGING WITH THE TROUGH MON INTO TUE. THE TROUGHING WILL LINGER
THROUGH FRI. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE TROPICAL N
ATLC WED THEN INTO THE E CARIBBEAN FRI.
Fair enough mate. Just try not to obsess over bans and strict rules too much.
(looks around, wags tail) did i miss anything?
You need to look at the lower level cumulus. The heeavy thunderstorm activity is causing a mid level low pressure center to develop. The actual low level center is further west. The banding you are seeing could very well be a feeder band in either case.
well do
A wait and see to see where this storm heads..
B - NHC is usually conservative.
Incredible And incredibly sad.
Say what ?
Wow, that really was a mad storm. Tragic. Hard to believe that one tornado managed to cause more damage and loss of life than most US landfalling hurricanes do. I guess it's just the more advanced warnings.
well I am saying not gonna happen we might even get a COC so yea not gonna
79.5 W - good job, Levi.
Our local newscast said 1model brings it towards upper Tx coastline. But it's not a reliable one. Thanks for your answer
Since when is the GFDL not reliable?
I got chastised by Taz. :(
Worst tropical storm in history (in terms of damages).
LOL you can post what evere you like but i was giveing you a nic wanring
so feel free too post what evere you feel like this be careful
Since when are local newscasts reliable?
Tropical Storm Allison on June 5, 2001
Formed June 4, 2001
Dissipated June 18, 2001
Highest
winds
1-minute sustained:
60 mph (95 km/h)
Lowest pressure 1000 mbar (hPa; 29.53 inHg)
Fatalities 41 direct, 14 indirect
Damage $5.5 billion (2001 USD)
$6.82 billion (2011 USD)
Areas
affected Texas (particularly around Houston), Louisiana, most of the Eastern United States
stormpetrol, I go a little further west than you. But my eyes have a hard time discerning low vs mid under the congestulation of the CDO.
P'cola- for shame
wash'n- nope, no more nap for now. I awake.
I agree 100%.
Mine actually is LOL
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