Caribbean disturbance 94L dumping heavy rains on Jamaica

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:44 PM GMT on June 05, 2011

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A large, wet, and disorganized tropical disturbance (Invest 94L) continues to spread heavy rain to the Central Caribbean near Jamaica. Rain has fallen continuously at Jamaica's Kingston Norman Manley Airport since midnight, with 1.89" having fallen from midnight to noon local time. Sustained winds of 24 mph also affected Kingston between 7am and 8am this morning. Satellite-estimated rainfall amounts of 1.4" per hour occurred in ocean regions 100 miles to the southeast of Kingston this morning, and heavy rains of up to 1/2" per hour are probably affecting portions of Jamaica early this afternoon, judging by the recent increase in heavy thunderstorm activity seen on visible satellite loops. This imagery also shows a slow increase in organization of 94L in recent hours, with spiral bands beginning to develop to the southeast of the center. There is a broad, poorly-defined circulation apparent that is not well enough defined to make 94L a tropical depression. Water vapor satellite loops show a region of dry air on the west side of 94L, and this dry air is interfering with the storm's organization. However, upper air balloon soundings from Kingston and the Cayman Islands taken at 8am EDT this morning show much moister air at mid levels of the atmosphere compared to Saturday (2% humidity at 500 mb on Saturday, compared to 49% this morning at Grand Cayman), and 94L appears to be gradually overcoming its dry air issues. Wind shear remains in the moderate range, 15 - 20 knots, and is predicted by the SHIPS model to remain below 20 knots through Tuesday morning. Water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 28 - 28.5°C, which is 2°C above the threshold needed to support development of a tropical storm.


Figure 1. Rainfall rates of up to 1.4" per hour (pink colors) were estimated by the F-15 satellite for 94L at 6:02am EDT Jun 5, 2011.

Since 94L is so large and is battling dry air, it is taking its sweet time to develop, and today's mission by the Hurricane Hunters has been cancelled. A new mission is scheduled for Monday afternoon at 2pm EDT. This morning's 06Z model runs are pretty unimpressed with 94L, with most of them showing little or no development. At 2pm EDT on Sunday, NHC gave the disturbance a 40% of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. If 94L stays to the south, its chances of development are greater, since a band of very high wind shear of 30 - 50 knots lies over Cuba and the southern Bahama Islands. The disturbance is expected to meander slowly westward or northward over the next two days, with Jamaica and southeastern Cuba being the primary targets for very heavy rains of 4 - 8 inches through Tuesday. Haiti and Central Cuba can expect somewhat lesser rains of 3 - 6 inches. If 94L does develop into a tropical depression and moves northwards over Cuba by Wednesday, I don't see the storm attaining hurricane strength, due to the high wind shear. The primary threat from 94L will be very heavy rains, capable of causing life-threatening flash flooding.


Figure 2. Afternoon satellite image of the Central Caribbean disturbance 94L.

Jeff Masters

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1197. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127536
1196. bappit
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Ya seen many women's hockey league games?

Not enough money in hockey to support a WNHL. They play it in the Olympics I think, though.
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1195. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127536
Quoting pottery:

Well shen, you know how it goes...
There was Big Improvement then there was Imminent Bust then there was Flare-Ups and Dry-Outs and stuff and whatnot.
You missed Everthing, man!
Should have never left the basement much less gone outdoors, happens every time.
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1193. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127536
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/06/05/us-usa-fl ooding-plains-idUSTRE7526YH20110605

Not tropical related but definitely weather relevant

Looks like the Midwest could be in for another round of serious flooding
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:
94L looks too be weaking now
Quoting clwstmchasr:


All along I didn't think 94L was going to develop. Then today I thought maybe I was wrong. However, once again it is not looking good and with conditions expected to become less favorable I'm afraid 94L will not be much more than an invest.
its dmin guys. Remember yesterday? Everyone said the same thing. Then they woke up in the morning all surprised.

Check back in the morning before you write her off. If she still looks bad after dmax then we can start writing her off
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting caneswatch:


How is basketball not a real man sport?
Ya seen many women's hockey league games?
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Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Abacosurf:
JNah...Just an afternoon siesta. look at that new convection firing on the NW quad. She is just about to wake up.


oky
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114710
1186. pottery
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
+ 10 at least.

What I want to know is what the heck went on today in a brief synopsis. I left out this afternoon and the posts were on page 2. I come back to 1,100 + posts and I look at the sat. pics and I don't see that much change. So what did I miss?

Well shen, you know how it goes...
There was Big Improvement then there was Imminent Bust then there was Flare-Ups and Dry-Outs and stuff and whatnot.
You missed Everthing, man!
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24019
Quoting stormpetrol:
Just because the bright colors have faded with 94L doesn't mean its weakening, I think it has become more organized , much larger, and is also ventilating quite nicely, it just the cycles with convection, 94L is well on the way in my opinion to becoming the first named storm of the Atlantic 2011 H Season.


With the increase in organization, I wonder how Convection formed during D-Max will cope with this system. Anyone have their opinion on this?
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Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CybrTeddy:


DMIN has done this with every invest I've ever seen. It will probably flare up in the morning again and everyone will be 'yep, TD by tomorrow'


Looks like the night before a Tropical Depression forms. The structure is holding strong along with banding. Convection dying down and getting ready for a big flare up overnight. Should be interesting tomorrow, funny thing is 93L from last June looked like this before it became TD1.
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Quoting FLdewey:

Fighting in basketball is frowned upon.


Actually, it is not with those who play it.
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Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
+ 10 at least.

What I want to know is what the heck went on today in a brief synopsis. I left out this afternoon and the posts were on page 2. I come back to 1,100 + posts and I look at the sat. pics and I don't see that much change. So what did I miss?


Nothing more than is it here, or is it there. lol
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1178. Patrap
00z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest94
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)






Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)




Early Model Wind Forecasts


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127536
1177. pottery
Quoting FLdewey:

Fighting in basketball is frowned upon.

heheheh
that's a Good One!
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24019
1176. aquak9
EEEEEK!!!

Flaming Sat Pics Burning Retinas!!!

Warn us next time, eh Keeper?
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25729
Quoting FLdewey:
In this day and age of "on demand" programming, DVRs and instant streaming... you mean to tell me we can't speed this sucker along?

I want a refund... this is boring.
+ 10 at least.

What I want to know is what the heck went on today in a brief synopsis. I left out this afternoon and the posts were on page 2. I come back to 1,100 + posts and I look at the sat. pics and I don't see that much change. So what did I miss?
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1174. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)


something big coming off africa
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
1172. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
1170. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
1168. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)


another poss dev area in BOC of the GOM
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Quoting clwstmchasr:


All along I didn't think 94L was going to develop. Then today I thought maybe I was wrong. However, once again it is not looking good and with conditions expected to become less favorable I'm afraid 94L will not be much more than an invest.


DMIN has done this with every invest I've ever seen. It will probably flare up in the morning again and everyone will be 'yep, TD by tomorrow'
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Quoting Tazmanian:
94L looks too be weaking now
JNah...Just an afternoon siesta. look at that new convection firing on the NW quad. She is just about to wake up.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1164. pottery
Quoting stormpetrol:


Hey Pot, How r ya? LMAO!! so true, but I 've seen this happen with these large systems before, so I think the real potential is at those coordinates

You think it can make a come-back?
It's looking pretty bad.
Earlier it was looking great!
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24019
Hello everyone its great to actually be posting on the blog...long time lurker here from Deerfield Beach, Florida...been a follower of the blog since 2004 and I told myself that this year I am going to be more proactive and actually contribute something to the blog

So it looks like D-Min has weakened the convection with 94L but its structure looks to be improving somewhat.

Stormpetrol,

I agree that after looking at the link you provided that a new LLC may be trying to form at 16.5/77.5

Convection looks to be wrapping around that area moreso than the circulation that was supposed to be further west.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting FLdewey:


Bleh... waiting for game 3 of the cup... real man sport.


How is basketball not a real man sport?
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1160. pottery
Quoting Tazmanian:
94L looks too be weaking now

Yeah, it sure does look so.
It's very weak right now.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24019
Quoting pottery:
16.5n 77.5w is an upper and mid level rotation, apparently.
Does not get to the surface.
That's the word on the street.
:)


Hey Pot, How r ya? LMAO!! so true, but I 've seen this happen with these large systems before, so I think the real potential is at those coordinates
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7663
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


Yeah... No doubt this system still has so much more to do before it becomes a TD, and considering the upper level environment is expected to begin going downhill by tomorrow night..

We'll see what it does by tomorrow morning, however. Two nights ago it looked like crap only to become impressive the next morning. Last night it looked like bad also only to become even more impressive the next morning than the last. So I'm interested to see what happens tomorrow morning.
Agreed. It has looked bad the past few nights but each night it looks a little better so time will tell. As the song says, who knows what tomorrow brings.
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Quoting FLdewey:


Bleh... waiting for game 3 of the cup... real man sport.


+1000000000000000000000000
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1156. pottery
16.5n 77.5w is an upper and mid level rotation, apparently.
Does not get to the surface.
That's the word on the street.
:)
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24019
Been reading on here about analogue years, and kinda came to the conclusion that each season is different, and some share similarities with each other, but unless all of the conditions are exactly the same, the overall outcome is gonna be different, even if just slightly so. Patterns with ridges and troughs are good for short term steering analysis, but are very unpredictable in the longer range. Just gonna take this season as it comes and not place and expectations on it. 2011 will be it's own year, awaiting what it brings...
Member Since: December 18, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 2685
Quoting stormwatcherCI:


Before



Now

You cannot deny the fact that it looked much better earlier.


Yeah... No doubt this system still has so much more to do before it becomes a TD, and considering the upper level environment is expected to begin going downhill by tomorrow night..

We'll see what it does by tomorrow morning, however. Two nights ago it looked like crap only to become impressive the next morning. Last night it looked like bad also only to become even more impressive the next morning than the last. So I'm interested to see what happens tomorrow morning.
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94L looks too be weaking now
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114710
1151. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
wunderkid you ok ya seem a little tense go easy
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
Pottery what is this guy on about


Troll - use your ignore button.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1149. pottery
Quoting stormpetrol:
Link

I starting to think 16.5N/77.5W is becoming the dominant center, really tightening up there, check link

Some of us have been looking at that and wondering...
But the current LLC is placed at near 80W.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24019
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

what are you talking about the fading current LLC near 80/81W or the possibly reforming LLC under the MLC south of Jamaica


fading colors(waning convection), the latter!
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7663
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

yes I think you are very much so correct


Before



Now

You cannot deny the fact that it looked much better earlier.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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