Caribbean disturbance 94L dumping heavy rains on Jamaica
A large, wet, and disorganized tropical disturbance (Invest 94L) continues to spread heavy rain to the Central Caribbean near Jamaica. Rain has fallen continuously at Jamaica's Kingston Norman Manley Airport since midnight, with 1.89" having fallen from midnight to noon local time. Sustained winds of 24 mph also affected Kingston between 7am and 8am this morning. Satellite-estimated rainfall amounts of 1.4" per hour occurred in ocean regions 100 miles to the southeast of Kingston this morning, and heavy rains of up to 1/2" per hour are probably affecting portions of Jamaica early this afternoon, judging by the recent increase in heavy thunderstorm activity seen on visible satellite loops. This imagery also shows a slow increase in organization of 94L in recent hours, with spiral bands beginning to develop to the southeast of the center. There is a broad, poorly-defined circulation apparent that is not well enough defined to make 94L a tropical depression. Water vapor satellite loops show a region of dry air on the west side of 94L, and this dry air is interfering with the storm's organization. However, upper air balloon soundings from Kingston and the Cayman Islands taken at 8am EDT this morning show much moister air at mid levels of the atmosphere compared to Saturday (2% humidity at 500 mb on Saturday, compared to 49% this morning at Grand Cayman), and 94L appears to be gradually overcoming its dry air issues. Wind shear remains in the moderate range, 15 - 20 knots, and is predicted by the SHIPS model to remain below 20 knots through Tuesday morning. Water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 28 - 28.5°C, which is 2°C above the threshold needed to support development of a tropical storm.
Figure 1. Rainfall rates of up to 1.4" per hour (pink colors) were estimated by the F-15 satellite for 94L at 6:02am EDT Jun 5, 2011.
Since 94L is so large and is battling dry air, it is taking its sweet time to develop, and today's mission by the Hurricane Hunters has been cancelled. A new mission is scheduled for Monday afternoon at 2pm EDT. This morning's 06Z model runs are pretty unimpressed with 94L, with most of them showing little or no development. At 2pm EDT on Sunday, NHC gave the disturbance a 40% of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. If 94L stays to the south, its chances of development are greater, since a band of very high wind shear of 30 - 50 knots lies over Cuba and the southern Bahama Islands. The disturbance is expected to meander slowly westward or northward over the next two days, with Jamaica and southeastern Cuba being the primary targets for very heavy rains of 4 - 8 inches through Tuesday. Haiti and Central Cuba can expect somewhat lesser rains of 3 - 6 inches. If 94L does develop into a tropical depression and moves northwards over Cuba by Wednesday, I don't see the storm attaining hurricane strength, due to the high wind shear. The primary threat from 94L will be very heavy rains, capable of causing life-threatening flash flooding.
Figure 2. Afternoon satellite image of the Central Caribbean disturbance 94L.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Yeah... No doubt this system still has so much more to do before it becomes a TD, and considering the upper level environment is expected to begin going downhill by tomorrow night..
We'll see what it does by tomorrow morning, however. Two nights ago it looked like crap only to become impressive the next morning. Last night it looked like bad also only to become even more impressive the next morning than the last. So I'm interested to see what happens tomorrow morning.
Does not get to the surface.
That's the word on the street.
:)
+1000000000000000000000000
Hey Pot, How r ya? LMAO!! so true, but I 've seen this happen with these large systems before, so I think the real potential is at those coordinates
Yeah, it sure does look so.
It's very weak right now.
How is basketball not a real man sport?
So it looks like D-Min has weakened the convection with 94L but its structure looks to be improving somewhat.
Stormpetrol,
I agree that after looking at the link you provided that a new LLC may be trying to form at 16.5/77.5
Convection looks to be wrapping around that area moreso than the circulation that was supposed to be further west.
All along I didn't think 94L was going to develop. Then today I thought maybe I was wrong. However, once again it is not looking good and with conditions expected to become less favorable I'm afraid 94L will not be much more than an invest.
You think it can make a come-back?
It's looking pretty bad.
Earlier it was looking great!
DMIN has done this with every invest I've ever seen. It will probably flare up in the morning again and everyone will be 'yep, TD by tomorrow'
another poss dev area in BOC of the GOM
something big coming off africa
What I want to know is what the heck went on today in a brief synopsis. I left out this afternoon and the posts were on page 2. I come back to 1,100 + posts and I look at the sat. pics and I don't see that much change. So what did I miss?
Flaming Sat Pics Burning Retinas!!!
Warn us next time, eh Keeper?
heheheh
that's a Good One!
Invest94
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)
Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)
Early Model Wind Forecasts
Nothing more than is it here, or is it there. lol
Actually, it is not with those who play it.
Looks like the night before a Tropical Depression forms. The structure is holding strong along with banding. Convection dying down and getting ready for a big flare up overnight. Should be interesting tomorrow, funny thing is 93L from last June looked like this before it became TD1.
With the increase in organization, I wonder how Convection formed during D-Max will cope with this system. Anyone have their opinion on this?
Well shen, you know how it goes...
There was Big Improvement then there was Imminent Bust then there was Flare-Ups and Dry-Outs and stuff and whatnot.
You missed Everthing, man!
oky
Check back in the morning before you write her off. If she still looks bad after dmax then we can start writing her off
Not tropical related but definitely weather relevant
Looks like the Midwest could be in for another round of serious flooding
Not enough money in hockey to support a WNHL. They play it in the Olympics I think, though.
Invest 94L; June 5th, 2011:
Pre-Alex had more convection near the center, but the extension of upper divergence and convection well to the east of the center is similar with both systems.
Welcome neighbor.
And hey, I don't know skeet from skynola about tropical weather compared to many here, and they've let me get away with thousands of posts!
.
I add what I can.
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