Caribbean disturbance 94L dumping heavy rains on Jamaica

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:44 PM GMT on June 05, 2011

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A large, wet, and disorganized tropical disturbance (Invest 94L) continues to spread heavy rain to the Central Caribbean near Jamaica. Rain has fallen continuously at Jamaica's Kingston Norman Manley Airport since midnight, with 1.89" having fallen from midnight to noon local time. Sustained winds of 24 mph also affected Kingston between 7am and 8am this morning. Satellite-estimated rainfall amounts of 1.4" per hour occurred in ocean regions 100 miles to the southeast of Kingston this morning, and heavy rains of up to 1/2" per hour are probably affecting portions of Jamaica early this afternoon, judging by the recent increase in heavy thunderstorm activity seen on visible satellite loops. This imagery also shows a slow increase in organization of 94L in recent hours, with spiral bands beginning to develop to the southeast of the center. There is a broad, poorly-defined circulation apparent that is not well enough defined to make 94L a tropical depression. Water vapor satellite loops show a region of dry air on the west side of 94L, and this dry air is interfering with the storm's organization. However, upper air balloon soundings from Kingston and the Cayman Islands taken at 8am EDT this morning show much moister air at mid levels of the atmosphere compared to Saturday (2% humidity at 500 mb on Saturday, compared to 49% this morning at Grand Cayman), and 94L appears to be gradually overcoming its dry air issues. Wind shear remains in the moderate range, 15 - 20 knots, and is predicted by the SHIPS model to remain below 20 knots through Tuesday morning. Water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 28 - 28.5°C, which is 2°C above the threshold needed to support development of a tropical storm.


Figure 1. Rainfall rates of up to 1.4" per hour (pink colors) were estimated by the F-15 satellite for 94L at 6:02am EDT Jun 5, 2011.

Since 94L is so large and is battling dry air, it is taking its sweet time to develop, and today's mission by the Hurricane Hunters has been cancelled. A new mission is scheduled for Monday afternoon at 2pm EDT. This morning's 06Z model runs are pretty unimpressed with 94L, with most of them showing little or no development. At 2pm EDT on Sunday, NHC gave the disturbance a 40% of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. If 94L stays to the south, its chances of development are greater, since a band of very high wind shear of 30 - 50 knots lies over Cuba and the southern Bahama Islands. The disturbance is expected to meander slowly westward or northward over the next two days, with Jamaica and southeastern Cuba being the primary targets for very heavy rains of 4 - 8 inches through Tuesday. Haiti and Central Cuba can expect somewhat lesser rains of 3 - 6 inches. If 94L does develop into a tropical depression and moves northwards over Cuba by Wednesday, I don't see the storm attaining hurricane strength, due to the high wind shear. The primary threat from 94L will be very heavy rains, capable of causing life-threatening flash flooding.


Figure 2. Afternoon satellite image of the Central Caribbean disturbance 94L.

Jeff Masters

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Updated SST Anomalies... slight cooling around Cape Verde Islands.






Last Year


Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 10904
I'm at the Western end of Jamaica. Rain showers, grey skies, low fast moving clouds with light winds.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:


Yo. hydrus. I got a question for you. How come I have nailed this system for days. I have located the center when no one else could. I predicted the movement 3 days ago when everyone said I was wrong. I even gave the hours it would flare-up after everyone said it was dead. And I get ignored. Yet Levi and Drak come on and say "Hello" and eveyone says. Oh, that is "awsome", wonderful great analysis. Am I too old to be on here?????
No. Drak has been on forever, and Levi posts his own forecast blogs near-daily. I usually give good (or at least decent) info myself, and I never get huge greetings, either.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1743. scott39
Quoting Grothar:


Yo. hydrus. I got a question for you. How come I have nailed this system for days. I have located the center when no one else could. I predicted the movement 3 days ago when everyone said I was wrong. I even gave the hours it would flare-up after everyone said it was dead. And I get ignored. Yet Levi and Drak come on and say "Hello" and eveyone says. Oh, that is "awsome", wonderful great analysis. Am I too old to be on here?????
I hear ya...Nobody recognizes my level of expertise either!
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Quoting Chicklit:
Any chance the left hand blob is what Walshy is showing in post 1664?


The left hand blob is definitely more interesting to me than the right hand blob and have been watching it since early yesterday. MAYBE it will flow up and over Florida with RAIN????????? Crossing fingers and toes! Good morning all.
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Quoting sammywammybamy:
NGP (120 Hours)







Perfect...

Morning All. I see 94L sorted out some confusion from last night. Pretty obvious where it's located now and will remain.
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1740. hydrus
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Quoting Grothar:


Yo. hydrus. I got a question for you. How come I have nailed this system for days. I have located the center when no one else could. I predicted the movement 3 days ago when everyone said I was wrong. I even gave the hours it would flare-up after everyone said it was dead. And I get ignored. Yet Levi and Drak come on and say "Hello" and eveyone says. Oh, that is "awsome", wonderful great analysis. Am I too old to be on here?????


Levi and Drak were on?!? What did they say???


;)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I did not expect to see 94L fall apart overnight but it looks like it may be trying to come together over the past few hours. Again, recon was canceled. It should have been moved to later instead of canceled all together. Thats the NHC for you.
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Grothar is in rare form this morning.
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1734. scott39
Quoting Grothar:


That happens in bars too, around 2:00 AM.
Yea, and then sometimes about 8:00am it goes to near 0%!
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Quoting Grothar:


Yo. hydrus. I got a question for you. How come I have nailed this system for days. I have located the center when no one else could. I predicted the movement 3 days ago when everyone said I was wrong. I even gave the hours it would flare-up after everyone said it was dead. And I get ignored. Yet Levi and Drak come on and say "Hello" and eveyone says. Oh, that is "awsome", wonderful great analysis. Am I too old to be on here?????


Yes.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1732. Grothar
Quoting scott39:
Is it just me....or does 94L look more impressive as time goes on today??


That happens in bars too, around 2:00 AM.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25395
1731. Grothar
Quoting hydrus:


Yo. hydrus. I got a question for you. How come I have nailed this system for days. I have located the center when no one else could. I predicted the movement 3 days ago when everyone said I was wrong. I even gave the hours it would flare-up after everyone said it was dead. And I get ignored. Yet Levi and Drak come on and say "Hello" and eveyone says. Oh, that is "awsome", wonderful great analysis. Am I too old to be on here?????
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25395
1730. scott39
Is it just me....or does 94L look more impressive as time goes on today??
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the tropical wave around 50w has alittle weak low on it around 49w 23n wonder if this will get shot ne and weaken or west.
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1727. aquak9
Yes, Ike...it's been a Recoon Recall.
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1726. hydrus
Quoting Hugo7:
When I look at this map I still see just a broad area of circulation. And at the end of the play I begin to see what looks like two sepperate areas of circulation begining to form, but can't tell for sure. I do however see one very defined area of circulation were 91E is.
I have seen multiple vorts with this thing from the beginning..I think monsoon troughs love having little spins inside them.
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1725. IKE
"""I wuz canceled?"""




Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1724. aquak9
SammyWB- no, they are happy and healthy with hearty appetites...
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1723. hydrus
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
T.C.F.A.
XX/INV/91E
MARK
11.85N/101.3W
Good morning Keep. What are your thoughts on 94L..It does seem to be organizing slowly.
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1721. cg2916
Quoting hydrus:
Looks kind of busy for June...


LOL.
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1720. Hugo7
Quoting hydrus:
It should have a shot at depression status with all that moisture around it.
When I look at this map I still see just a broad area of circulation. And at the end of the play I begin to see what looks like two sepperate areas of circulation begining to form, but can't tell for sure. I do however see one very defined area of circulation were 91E is.
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1718. hydrus
Looks kind of busy for June...
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1717. cg2916
94L lost it's organization and possible circulation. What happened?
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1716. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
T.C.F.A.
XX/INV/91E
MARK
11.85N/101.3W
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
1715. scott39
I dont know much about a TC developing. I think I know this much though.... If 94L keeps moving in the same general direction at the same forward speed for the next 24 to 48 hours... I dont see how it cannot develope to at least TD status before its demise in the GOM??
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1713. hydrus
Quoting Grothar:
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1712. aquak9
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
the heat of the day does it in today just over 36 hrs remain for it to do something my forecast calls for just rain however and i see the recoons are not even going so that itself should tell us what we need to know


the recoons are sleeping in, after partying and eating my garden all night
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1711. Grothar
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25395
1710. Grothar
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25395
1709. scott39
94L "looks" more impressive this morning...with the storms firing up.
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So much moisture for Florida! All of that is going to be pulled northward into the gulf, regardless of what becomes of 94. As it enters the se gulf, the shear will do its work and Florida will be covered in moderate rain :)
Member Since: December 1, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3619
1707. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
the heat of the day does it in today just over 36 hrs remain for it to do something my forecast calls for just rain however and i see the recoons are not even going so that itself should tell us what we need to know
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Quoting stormpetrol:
I have the COC of 94L at 16.8/79.2, sorry I just don't see any other area with a hint circulation
That's what it looks like to me too.
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Quoting Hugo7:
Least 91 still has a good chance at something. Convection really firing up on it.


Looks like NHC is preparing to start advisories on 91E, they did a forecast at the 06Z model cycle.


EP 91 2011060606 03 OFCL 0 109N 982W 25 0 DB
EP 91 2011060606 03 OFCL 12 114N 987W 25 0 DB
EP 91 2011060606 03 OFCL 24 122N 994W 30 0 TD
EP 91 2011060606 03 OFCL 36 128N 1000W 40 0 TS
EP 91 2011060606 03 OFCL 48 136N 1007W 60 0 TS
EP 91 2011060606 03 OFCL 48 136N 1007W 60 0 TS
EP 91 2011060606 03 OFCL 72 155N 1025W 75 0 HU
EP 91 2011060606 03 OFCL 72 155N 1025W 75 0 HU
EP 91 2011060606 03 OFCL 96 166N 1045W 85 0 HU
EP 91 2011060606 03 OFCL 120 170N 1055W 85 0 HU
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 10904
1704. HCW
Have a great day :)

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I have the COC of 94L at 16.8/79.2, sorry I just don't see any other area with a hint circulation
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1702. fishcop
Woke up to a broken AC unit at 6am and it's already 84 degrees inside the apartment. Gonna be a hot day on Grand Cayman. The bulk of this rain seems to be teasing us here - we need a down pour so bad.
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1701. hydrus
Quoting Chicklit:


NHC discussion this morning said it will sit there until Wednesday when upper level winds become less favorable.
It should have a shot at depression status with all that moisture around it.
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Quoting scott39:
It has the most convection around the circulation, that I have seen so far.


THE AREA OF LOWEST PRESSURE
IS LOCATED ABOUT 130 MILES SOUTH OF GRAND CAYMAN AND REMAINS
SEPARATED FROM THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
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1699. Hugo7
Least 91 still has a good chance at something. Convection really firing up on it.
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Quoting islander101010:

plenty of time to do what it wants


I don't think 94L has a say in the matter :)
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1697. scott39
It has the most convection around the circulation, that I have seen so far.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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