Caribbean disturbance 94L dumping heavy rains on Jamaica
A large, wet, and disorganized tropical disturbance (Invest 94L) continues to spread heavy rain to the Central Caribbean near Jamaica. Rain has fallen continuously at Jamaica's Kingston Norman Manley Airport since midnight, with 1.89" having fallen from midnight to noon local time. Sustained winds of 24 mph also affected Kingston between 7am and 8am this morning. Satellite-estimated rainfall amounts of 1.4" per hour occurred in ocean regions 100 miles to the southeast of Kingston this morning, and heavy rains of up to 1/2" per hour are probably affecting portions of Jamaica early this afternoon, judging by the recent increase in heavy thunderstorm activity seen on visible satellite loops. This imagery also shows a slow increase in organization of 94L in recent hours, with spiral bands beginning to develop to the southeast of the center. There is a broad, poorly-defined circulation apparent that is not well enough defined to make 94L a tropical depression. Water vapor satellite loops show a region of dry air on the west side of 94L, and this dry air is interfering with the storm's organization. However, upper air balloon soundings from Kingston and the Cayman Islands taken at 8am EDT this morning show much moister air at mid levels of the atmosphere compared to Saturday (2% humidity at 500 mb on Saturday, compared to 49% this morning at Grand Cayman), and 94L appears to be gradually overcoming its dry air issues. Wind shear remains in the moderate range, 15 - 20 knots, and is predicted by the SHIPS model to remain below 20 knots through Tuesday morning. Water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 28 - 28.5°C, which is 2°C above the threshold needed to support development of a tropical storm.
Figure 1. Rainfall rates of up to 1.4" per hour (pink colors) were estimated by the F-15 satellite for 94L at 6:02am EDT Jun 5, 2011.
Since 94L is so large and is battling dry air, it is taking its sweet time to develop, and today's mission by the Hurricane Hunters has been cancelled. A new mission is scheduled for Monday afternoon at 2pm EDT. This morning's 06Z model runs are pretty unimpressed with 94L, with most of them showing little or no development. At 2pm EDT on Sunday, NHC gave the disturbance a 40% of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. If 94L stays to the south, its chances of development are greater, since a band of very high wind shear of 30 - 50 knots lies over Cuba and the southern Bahama Islands. The disturbance is expected to meander slowly westward or northward over the next two days, with Jamaica and southeastern Cuba being the primary targets for very heavy rains of 4 - 8 inches through Tuesday. Haiti and Central Cuba can expect somewhat lesser rains of 3 - 6 inches. If 94L does develop into a tropical depression and moves northwards over Cuba by Wednesday, I don't see the storm attaining hurricane strength, due to the high wind shear. The primary threat from 94L will be very heavy rains, capable of causing life-threatening flash flooding.
Figure 2. Afternoon satellite image of the Central Caribbean disturbance 94L.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Shear in the upper area of the GoM shouldn't be too bad, but it's path up there involves crossing the subtropical jetstream, which would likely destroy it.
On that map you posted...
what happened to the T-Wave that was approaching 94L ???
It's not shown....
but nearly on top of me
Hey, 09, you got nailed and I missed it? I wish someone would have called me.
It is shown on the plots from SFWMD
We need a rainmaker, that is for sure!!! However, will the subtropical jetstream kill the system before reaching the northern gulf states?? just wondering. i am in alabama
The circulation is pretty much aligned all the way from the surface to 500 mbs if you look at the maps. There is a spin slightly off to the ENE of the main circulation but it is not really interfering with the system apparently and may just be a temporary gyre within the overall circulation itself.
Blog update:
Tropical Tidbit for Sunday, June 5th, with Video
+1 lol
Not according to the latest CMC bomber....
From the early morning Marine Weather Discussion
Excerpt:
A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE HAS JUST ENTERED THE FAR SE
CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 8N62W TO 16N61W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THE WAVE
IS NOT EXPECTED TO PROGRESS TO FAR TO THE W BEFORE IT BECOMES
RECONFIGURED INTO AN E TO W TROUGH OVER NORTHERN SECTION OF THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TONIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK. THE TROUGH THEN LIFTS NWD INTO THE FAR SE PORTION
OF THE SW N ATLC ZONE WED AND THU
However, I don't see this feature shown on the current or forecast surface maps.
Not really seeing how anything could be aligned from looking at visible loops. Nonetheless, it's still a broad circulation that still needs work.
Thanks, Appreciate that.
I am confused by it as well.
lol
Joe Bastardi
Tropical Disturbance
looking stronger this morning.. Should be in eastern Gulf and then
affect Florida next weekend. Keep an eye on this.
and sell Antique stuff on the side. Really OLD antique stuff. Nice!
You're OK, 09. So, you've been following my coverage of this event for the past few days? I nailed it. Right to the location and timing and all. Even got it in right before Dr. Masters new post. The only thing is my arm hurts for patting myself on the back. LOL
I would do a video-blog but I don't think any of you would like my accent. I'll give you a sample and you let me know.
He probably saw my blog entry early this morning.
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1807 UTC SUN JUN 5 2011
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942011) 20110605 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
110605 1800 110606 0600 110606 1800 110607 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.8N 79.6W 17.2N 80.4W 17.6N 81.1W 17.7N 81.7W
BAMD 16.8N 79.6W 17.5N 80.3W 18.6N 80.7W 20.0N 80.3W
BAMM 16.8N 79.6W 17.3N 80.4W 18.0N 80.8W 18.5N 80.9W
LBAR 16.8N 79.6W 17.6N 79.9W 18.6N 79.9W 19.7N 79.0W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 31KTS 34KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 31KTS 34KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
110607 1800 110608 1800 110609 1800 110610 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.7N 82.2W 17.7N 83.7W 17.8N 85.0W 18.4N 86.2W
BAMD 21.6N 79.3W 25.5N 77.5W 28.8N 78.5W 31.1N 81.0W
BAMM 19.1N 80.8W 20.3N 81.1W 22.4N 81.4W 24.4N 82.7W
LBAR 20.6N 77.6W 22.5N 73.8W 25.6N 70.1W 27.8N 65.9W
SHIP 33KTS 22KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 33KTS 22KTS 0KTS 0KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.8N LONCUR = 79.6W DIRCUR = 310DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 16.2N LONM12 = 79.1W DIRM12 = 294DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 16.1N LONM24 = 78.2W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 175NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 250NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
lol.
Or are you serious? You think it's going to Florida too?
SSTs=Check
Moist Air-Almost There
Coreolis-Almost There
Anti-Cyclone = Check
Vorticity=Partialy There....Low and mid-level vorticity is there but not stacked yet in the upper levels; probably because of the bands of 40-50 knots of shear just to the north of the disurbance.
I think the missing factor is upper level stacking, but, the main difference between yesterday and today is that the anti-cyclone over the system has grown in size.....This "protection" may allow the system to finally start to blossom in the upper levels over the next 24-48 hours....Time will Tell.
All of these maps show vorticity directly overhead the area of lowest surface pressure. That is aligned in my book.
5000 feet
10,000 feet
18,000 feet
That would be a mid-level rotation that you are seeing on the satellite loop. The surface circulation is west of the convection.
Don't forget to post your recipes too.
Too far East, I think...
By a long way.
2500 feet
Very Good!!
heheheheheh
Agreed
Hey, one must keep the "will it hit South Florida' casters happy, too!
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