Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting midgulfmom:
I see. Heard a scientist on, again, NPR, explain it that way but I'm going from my middle aged memory (LOL). I think he did say that the meltdown would continue in Japan until they get under it or it looks much worse than most imagine. Sounds dreadfully dire. :(

Several Retired workers, in their 70's and older, have volunteered to go in and try to get the thing stabilized.
They know they will die from the Radiation, but they say "So? We will die anyway, soon"

I Salute them.

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
T.C.F.W.
01E/TS/A/CX
MARK
11.90N/101.13W

Adrian showing 94L how it's done

It's late....

I'm gone>>>>>>

Stay Safe, all.

Quoting pottery:

Several Retired workers, in their 70's and older, have volunteered to go in and try to get the thing stabilized.
They know they will die from the Radiation, but they say "So? We will die anyway, soon"

I Salute them.

Indeed..so selfless, inspiring, and touching! I Salute them as well!

Pottery, Good night and sleep well. Enjoyed the conversation!

Quoting Bitmap7:
Anyone has a sat image of the lightening going off in adrian?

I don't have any close up views over the storm, but here are 3 links to global views which give you a sense of the activity in the storm

Link 1
Link 2
Link 3

from the links it doesn't look like there is much lighting activity with the storm at the moment

Quoting midgulfmom:
LOL China will like that. BTW Bob Breck is pretty good. He puts his own analysis on the weather, even if he's kinda goofy sometimes.

I agree. He has taken a licking on the Blog recently for some remarks he made on his Blog .

Good nite to all. Enjoyed the banter. See ya on the flip side. Sleep well. Just say no to nuclear..LOL

mmmmmmm

Well-defined eye feature aloft with Adrian:



Usually when this happens, rapid intensification quickly follows if conditions permit.

Quoting alfabob:
I'm thinking 94L will make its way over to Jamaica/Cuba and begin to form where the winds are converging and MLC was. Maybe by tomorrow it could be back if it continues NE.

maybe then after it does that it should strat to lift off to the NW-WNW

Quoting KoritheMan:
Well-defined eye feature aloft with Adrian:



Usually when this happens, rapid intensification quickly follows if conditions permit.

Yes..was thinking the same thing.

Quoting JRRP:

mmmmmmm

Mmmhhhhhhhhhmmm

Well I'm off to bed, night all

Gave that storm a name. Storms love names.

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
11:30 AM IST June 8 2011
==================================

Yesterday's low pressure area over east central Arabian Sea now lies as a well marked low pressure area over the same region

Vortex over Arabian Sea centered within half a degree of 17.5N 70.0E. Center is better seen in visible imagery and not much movement is observed in the system. Dvorak Intensity is T1.0. Associated broken intense to very intense convection (cloud top temperature -88C) over arabian sea between 14.5N to 20.5N and 62.0E to 69.5E.

Scattered low/medium clouds with embedded isolated moderate to intense convection over rest Arabian Sea north of 8.0N east of 60.0E.

If it weren't for the shear I would say the area now north of PR would be Pre-95L


It's got a nice vort with it.

Quoting pottery:

It's more complex than that, too.
Nuclear reaction is dependent upon the reaction of things one to another.
If you get the Physics right, you have a Nuclear Explosion.
Nuclear plants do this, but in a controlled way. Its a balancing act. The "explosion" is ongoing and is controlled and results in heat which generates steam to run turbines to turn generators.
When you have an earthquake, a tsunami, and a fire, you lose control.

I dont know if they shut down the reactors in a controlled way, or if they shut down because they could not control them.

They were pumping water onto the cores to cool them, because they were overheating. They had no control.

if you tune in to the BBC, they have great on going coverage, unlike CNN and fox and...AP

the reactors had a perfect worse case event, yes the earth quake effected them, and yes the Tasmania also.

some of the things I have learned is they "think" reactors 2,3,4 have "melted down" and have been in that state within 24 hours after the Tasmania, they have discovered some of the water level gauges to be reading inaccurately by as much as 20% higher than what the level really is.

the state of the -cores- has been simply explained that they -probably- over heated, the pellets then would have melted the rods they are in, the cluster of rods sets then would have dropped the pellets to the bottom of the containment vessel, which then the "blob" would eventually melted the bottom out of the containment vessel, which would release the core and the reactor water in to the basement. which would explain the on going battle of uncontrolled flow and high amount of radiation in the surround seas. the Fukashima plant is only one of a total of four plants that have noted problems, with a combination 15 reactors total (I think), The country of Japan is slightly smaller than the state of California.

Soon after this I wrote about it, before it hit the Chernobyl scale.

Link

just note the dates..

Blog dead.

RSMC Miami National Hurricane Center
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #4
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADRIAN (EP012011)
2:00 AM PDT June 8 2011
===================================

SUBJECT: "ADRIAN" Strengthens And Is Expected To Rapidly Strengthen

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Adrian (998 hPa) located at 12.0N 100.9W or 300 NM south of Acapulco, Mexico has sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 4 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Gale Force Winds
================
60 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 13.4N 102.0W - 70 knots (CAT 1/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 14.7N 104.3W - 90 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
72 HRS: 15.5N 106.5W - 90 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Cyclone)

Atlantic basin looks quiet the next 7-10 days.

0-0-0 rocks on.

It's time to put this in the coffin:

Good morning, good day to the rest of the world. A flourescent sunrise greets me here in NE Fla, all brilliant pinks and purples.

Massive 20% chance of rain for you the next 6 days aquak. Break out the umbrellas and galoshes.

I had a 60% chance yesterday and got none.

Good morning Ike and Aquak.Wait ike did not Crown weather say this 94L would develop?What about the 6000 posts from the kiddies? Looks like last year has ran over to this year with this blog.Well to still your thunder 0-0-0.

aquak9, you popping LSD ?
Actually it is a pretty sunrise as I look out of the 14th story window.

Man we need 94L to gain a little strength and bring us some rain here in central Florida ... PLEASE!!!!

2 day QPF....

Good morning. More rain for Puerto Rico today. The flash flood watch was extended until late afternoon. I haven't see the sun with a clear blue sky in San Juan for the past few days.

Saint- I like 0-0-0. But could we please do something about the rain deficit?

MAH- it only lasted maybe four minutes. Being only three miles inland, I get a bright, albeit quick horizon cross of the sun. This hippie doesn't do drugs.

Ike- I'm gonna do a rain dance very soon.

Supposed to be near 100 all over the eastern seaboard today and (especially) tomorrow. I've now heard two mets--obvious devotees of the same forecasting service--say that this will almost certainly be the hottest day many cities will see all year. IOW, it will get no warmer the entire rest of the summer. That seems to me a bit presumptuous given that it's, you know, only the first week of June. But what do I know?

Anyway, this should make some feel better about next week:

8 - 14 Day (click for larger image):



:-\

The bearer of bad news...Miami discussion style....

DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN STORY IS THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES IN THE W CARIB. TAFB
HAS DETERMINED A LOW CENTER NEAR 18N 81W AND THE FORECAST WILL BE
ABOUT HOW THIS LOW WILL DEVELOP AND AFFECT S FLA...ESPECIALLY IN THE
WAY OF RAINFALL. WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SW GULF OF MEX...THE
LOW IN THE CARIB HAS SW WIND SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM AND AT THIS TIME
RECENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD
BUT WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT. THE ECMWF/NAM DIFFER SOMEWHAT
FROM THE GFS IN THAT THE UPPER LOW IN THE GULF GRADUALLY LIFTS
NORTHWARD AS A TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE W U.S. COAST WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE SE U.S. MOVING SE AS ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY. BUT THE 2 FORMER MODELS MOVE A SURFACE
LOW NE JUST OFF OF THE SE FLA COAST WHILE THE LATTER...WHICH ALSO
MOVES THE LOW NE...BUT MUCH FURTHER E ACROSS E CUBA AND THE S
BAHAMAS. REGARDLESS...THERE WILL SOME IN-FLUX OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
AHEAD OF THE LOW BUT GUIDANCE SLOWS THIS TREND BUT ALSO WITH THE
PROJECTED MOVEMENT...S FLA WILL BE ON THE "DRIER" SIDE. FOR TODAY
...ESSENTIALLY DRY AND BREEZY THOUGH ISOLATED MORNING SHOWERS EAST
COAST WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE W INTERIOR
AND W. ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DEEPER MOISTURE IS FORECAST OVER S
FLA WITH POPS INCHING UPWARD FROM 20% THURSDAY TO 30% FRIDAY.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AT THIS TIME
DAILY AFTERNOON CONVECTION POSSIBLE WITH NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS. UNTIL A MORE DEFINITIVE PATTERN DEVELOPS...THE TREND
APPEARS TO KEEP S FLA ON THE DRIER SIDE OF ANY DEVELOPING ACTIVITY
SO THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE DOES NOT ARRIVE...WILL KEEP POPS
MINIMAL.

Quoting marknmelb:
Man we need 94L to gain a little strength and bring us some rain here in central Florida ... PLEASE!!!!

Wind shear is making 94L avoid hitting Florida. :( news for Florida.

Adrian is getting an eye, and possible 95 on horizon outside of car

Tampa, FL. extended....

FOR NOW HAVE
CONTINUED WITH THE 20-30 POPS THROUGH THE LONG TERM AND WILL WAIT TO
SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

say that this will almost certainly be the hottest day many cities will see all year.

Maybe they meant, of the year thus far? Obviously they ain't spent an August afternoon in Florida.

weird, I just got an attack page from AGV. Anybody else seeing that here?

Quoting aquak9:
say that this will almost certainly be the hottest day many cities will see all year.

Maybe they meant, of the year thus far? Obviously they ain't spent an August afternoon in Florida.

No, they definitely used words along the lines of, "Wednesday and Thursday will probably be the hottest days any of these cities will see for the rest of the year".

Yeah, we've seen lots of heat here in Naples already, but the insane humidity hasn't hit yet; those 90/90 days are yet to come...

Solar Tsunami Heading Earth's Way; Auroras to be Visible on Thursday

Link

No more floater on 94L
................................................. .................................................


SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
530 AM EDT WED JUN 08 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A NEARLY STATIONARY 1008 MB LOW IS NEAR 18N81W. THE
LOW WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE NW TO N THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THU NIGHT REACHING WESTERN CUBA BY EARLY FRI...THEN POSSIBLY
TURN MORE TOWARDS TO THE N AND NE LATER FRI AND SAT AS IT PULLS
AWAY FROM THE AREA. PERSISTENT BROAD TROUGHING WILL LINGER IN
THE NORTH PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC. A TROPICAL WAVE JUST
SE OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FAR SOUTHERN
CARIBBEAN THROUGH SUN HELPING TO INCREASE THE PRES GRADIENT OVER
MUCH OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

................................................. .................................................. ...........

94L will be moving into 50-60 knots of shear....

New poster here but it seems like we're settling finally into a normal summer weather pattern here in SE Texas. Instead of warm and dry, it's warm and humid. We got 1 inch of rain Monday, parts of my county got the same on Sunday, and yesterday it poured like crazy in the two counties below me.

And instead of 105 highs like on Sunday and Monday, I don't think it got out of the 80's yesterday. The long range rain forecast looks better for us now too.

Sorry Florida if you don't get the rain out of what's left of 94, but we need it in Texas too. If it doesn't come your way, hopefully we get it next week.

very active itcz ,this early in the season

Houston,TX. forecast shows highs in the mid 90's through Sunday and then upper 90's Monday and Tuesday. Twenty percent chance of rain...at the most...for the next week. Some days have no chance of rain for Houston.

very stormy africa this morning. if this trend continues then we might have an active july and the heart of the season

IKE 11:05 AM GMT on June 08, 2011 Hide this comment.
No more floater on 94L


I think they will soon deactivate 94L. Nothing left there.

Where's the morning shift?

Quoting stormwatcherCI:
IKE 11:05 AM GMT on June 08, 2011 Hide this comment.
No more floater on 94L


I think they will soon deactivate 94L. Nothing left there.

Agree.

Bye-bye 94L.....

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED JUN 8 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHWESTERN TO
THE NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HEAVY
RAINS COULD STILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER PORTIONS
OF HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...JAMAICA...AND CUBA AS THIS
SYSTEM DRIFTS GENERALLY NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN