Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Bye-bye 94L.....

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED JUN 8 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHWESTERN TO
THE NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HEAVY
RAINS COULD STILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER PORTIONS
OF HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...JAMAICA...AND CUBA AS THIS
SYSTEM DRIFTS GENERALLY NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

I am going to go crawl in a hole now....


DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN STORY IS THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES IN THE W CARIB. TAFB
HAS DETERMINED A LOW CENTER NEAR 18N 81W AND THE FORECAST WILL BE
ABOUT HOW THIS LOW WILL DEVELOP AND AFFECT S FLA...ESPECIALLY IN THE
WAY OF RAINFALL. WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SW GULF OF MEX...THE
LOW IN THE CARIB HAS SW WIND SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM AND AT THIS TIME
RECENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD
BUT WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT. THE ECMWF/NAM DIFFER SOMEWHAT
FROM THE GFS IN THAT THE UPPER LOW IN THE GULF GRADUALLY LIFTS
NORTHWARD AS A TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE W U.S. COAST WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE SE U.S. MOVING SE AS ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY. BUT THE 2 FORMER MODELS MOVE A SURFACE
LOW NE JUST OFF OF THE SE FLA COAST WHILE THE LATTER...WHICH ALSO
MOVES THE LOW NE...BUT MUCH FURTHER E ACROSS E CUBA AND THE S
BAHAMAS. REGARDLESS...THERE WILL SOME IN-FLUX OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
AHEAD OF THE LOW BUT GUIDANCE SLOWS THIS TREND BUT ALSO WITH THE
PROJECTED MOVEMENT...S FLA WILL BE ON THE "DRIER" SIDE. FOR TODAY
...ESSENTIALLY DRY AND BREEZY THOUGH ISOLATED MORNING SHOWERS EAST
COAST WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE W INTERIOR
AND W. ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DEEPER MOISTURE IS FORECAST OVER S
FLA WITH POPS INCHING UPWARD FROM 20% THURSDAY TO 30% FRIDAY.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AT THIS TIME
DAILY AFTERNOON CONVECTION POSSIBLE WITH NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS. UNTIL A MORE DEFINITIVE PATTERN DEVELOPS...THE TREND
APPEARS TO KEEP S FLA ON THE DRIER SIDE OF ANY DEVELOPING ACTIVITY
SO THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE DOES NOT ARRIVE...WILL KEEP POPS
MINIMAL.

Oh Lord, de Glorious Mornin' come !

A band of green Parrots in a tree outside Shrieking and Laughing at the Sunrise .
Hot coffee in hand.
The Basin swept almost clean (compared to the last week).
No T-Waves to worry about.
A wet mass over Africa.

All is well!

Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
I am going to go crawl in a hole now....


DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN STORY IS THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES IN THE W CARIB. TAFB
HAS DETERMINED A LOW CENTER NEAR 18N 81W AND THE FORECAST WILL BE
ABOUT HOW THIS LOW WILL DEVELOP AND AFFECT S FLA...ESPECIALLY IN THE
WAY OF RAINFALL. WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SW GULF OF MEX...THE
LOW IN THE CARIB HAS SW WIND SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM AND AT THIS TIME
RECENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD
BUT WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT. THE ECMWF/NAM DIFFER SOMEWHAT
FROM THE GFS IN THAT THE UPPER LOW IN THE GULF GRADUALLY LIFTS
NORTHWARD AS A TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE W U.S. COAST WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE SE U.S. MOVING SE AS ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY. BUT THE 2 FORMER MODELS MOVE A SURFACE
LOW NE JUST OFF OF THE SE FLA COAST WHILE THE LATTER...WHICH ALSO
MOVES THE LOW NE...BUT MUCH FURTHER E ACROSS E CUBA AND THE S
BAHAMAS. REGARDLESS...THERE WILL SOME IN-FLUX OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
AHEAD OF THE LOW BUT GUIDANCE SLOWS THIS TREND BUT ALSO WITH THE
PROJECTED MOVEMENT...S FLA WILL BE ON THE "DRIER" SIDE. FOR TODAY
...ESSENTIALLY DRY AND BREEZY THOUGH ISOLATED MORNING SHOWERS EAST
COAST WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE W INTERIOR
AND W. ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DEEPER MOISTURE IS FORECAST OVER S
FLA WITH POPS INCHING UPWARD FROM 20% THURSDAY TO 30% FRIDAY.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AT THIS TIME
DAILY AFTERNOON CONVECTION POSSIBLE WITH NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS. UNTIL A MORE DEFINITIVE PATTERN DEVELOPS...THE TREND
APPEARS TO KEEP S FLA ON THE DRIER SIDE OF ANY DEVELOPING ACTIVITY
SO THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE DOES NOT ARRIVE...WILL KEEP POPS
MINIMAL.

***But the rainy season should start next week in Florida***

Sarcasm flag on.

MJO....

I just have to laugh at the long term forecast showing above normal precip for FL. "It ain't happening"

NWS Wilmington, NC

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...FORECAST BECOMES INTERESTING IN THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF CUBA TONIGHT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH AND A DIVERSE SET OF SOLUTIONS EXISTS
WITH THE MODELS AT THIS POINT. THE NAM TRIES TO INTENSIFY SYSTEM AND
BRING IT NORTH JUST OFF THE FLORIDA COAST BY FRI AFTN AND
CONTINUING UP THE COAST REACHING OFF THE GA COAST BY SAT MORNING.
THIS SCENARIO WOULD BRING AN INCREASING FETCH OF MOISTURE INTO THE
CAROLINA COAST ON SATURDAY. THE GFS AND CANADIAN...WITH A WEAKER
SOLUTION...BRINGS THE LOW UP THROUGH THE BAHAMAS ON FRI NIGHT AND
CONTINUES ON A NORTHWARD TRACK. THE LOW REACHES OVER 350 MILES
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE SUN INTO MON MORNING WHILE A COLD
FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE 12Z ECMWF
IS IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SOLUTIONS BUT CLOSER TO THE GFS WITH MAIN
EFFECTS OF WEATHER COMING FROM THE COLD FRONT RATHER THAN THIS
TROPICAL LOW. A VERY BROAD MID TO UPPER LOW SHOULD DEVELOP OVER
THE GULF WHICH WILL HELP TO STEER THE LOW NORTHWARD INITIALLY BUT
SHORTWAVE IN NORTHERN STREAM SHOULD HELP TO STEER SYSTEM FARTHER
EAST AND KICK FRONT THROUGH THE CAROLINAS SUN NIGHT INTO MON. WE
MAY SEE A PUSH OF MOISTURE COMING FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST AS
SYSTEM MOVES NORTH IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS OVER THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEKEND...BUT FOR NOW EXPECT BEST CHC OF PCP TO COME FROM COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS AREA SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING. BOTH THE
TROPICAL LOW AND COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC AWAY
FROM LOCAL AREA MON INTO TUES.

QUOTING CYCLONICVOYAGE:

This is not what I wanted to hear, the first thing in the morning.

Adrian is definitely intensfying a lot quicker than expected...At this rate, I believe he/it will peak as a 110-115 mph Category 2/3 hurricane.

Quoting IKE:

***But the rainy season should start next week in Florida***

Sarcasm flag on.

Hope that you can find some rains soon.
Too many areas in the US under heavy manners from the Dry. Not good.

For those who like long range models

The floater for 94L is gone.

Nothing to see here people, just move on.

Into the hurricane season,,,and nothing but heat and humidity here in SE Texas,,,,

Quoting emcf30:


Solar Tsunami Heading Earth's Way; Auroras to be Visible on Thursday

Link

Yet the sun remains mostly spotless.

aquak how is the rain dance going. Everyone would like to see some results fast.

Quoting IKE:
MJO....

We shouldn't have any development out in the Atlantic until the last week or so of this month at the earliest.

Not saying it isn't possible, just saying its extremely unlikely.

Quoting beeleeva:
Into the hurricane season,,,and nothing but heat and humidity here in SE Texas,,,,

Yeah!
And it's been an entire WEEK !!
LOL

Very Strange weather, for sure.
Feast and Famine on the Weather Front.

Quoting marknmelb:
Man we need 94L to gain a little strength and bring us some rain here in central Florida ... PLEASE!!!!

Be careful for what you wish for, long soaking rain,
not tropical depression deluge.
We had two weeks of that in NH at the end of May.
Grass(weeds)are growing exponentially.

few more models shifting to push adrian more northerly track now. Prolly hurricane strength in 12 hours. I see the same thing as always with it going straight to the gulf of Cali.

Tom Terry and gang still continue to hold on to 50% chance of rain here in CFL. They are about the only ones

Quoting iceagecoming:


Yet the sun remains mostly spotless.

Check this out:
Space Weather Prediction Center

Quoting houston144:


if you tune in to the BBC, they have great on going coverage, unlike CNN and fox and...AP

the reactors had a perfect worse case event, yes the earth quake effected them, and yes the Tasmania also.

some of the things I have learned is they "think" reactors 2,3,4 have "melted down" and have been in that state within 24 hours after the Tasmania, they have discovered some of the water level gauges to be reading inaccurately by as much as 20% higher than what the level really is.

the state of the -cores- has been simply explained that they -probably- over heated, the pellets then would have melted the rods they are in, the cluster of rods sets then would have dropped the pellets to the bottom of the containment vessel, which then the "blob" would eventually melted the bottom out of the containment vessel, which would release the core and the reactor water in to the basement. which would explain the on going battle of uncontrolled flow and high amount of radiation in the surround seas. the Fukashima plant is only one of a total of four plants that have noted problems, with a combination 15 reactors total (I think), The country of Japan is slightly smaller than the state of California.

Soon after this I wrote about it, before it hit the Chernobyl scale.

Link

just note the dates..

Thanks for that.

Quoting pottery:

Hope that you can find some rains soon.
Too many areas in the US under heavy manners from the Dry. Not good.

Can tell you are West Indian LOL. Weather has pretty much dried up over here.

Mojo Discussion

Excerpt:

Across the western hemisphere, TD1 developed across the eastern Pacific basin on 7 June and is forecast to strengthen to hurricane strength and move northwestward. It is not forecast to impact any land areas, however. persistent low pressure favors the continuation of enhanced rainfall across the Caribbean Islands and portions of the far western Atlantic including the Bahamas especially early in the period. Model forecast guidance continues to favor drier-than-average conditions across southern Mexico.

This is an interesting article. I am just posting an excerpt, but the link is the full article. Very germane to the current situation.

For example, in Broward County, where the problem is particularly acute, the population grew by more than 200,000 people between 1980 and 1990 and is expected to increase by another half-million by 2010. According to the county's water management division, residents use an average of 200 gallons per person per day; that means water use went up by more than 14.5 billion gallons per year last decade and will increase by more than twice that in the next 15 years.

"The impact of the additional people has caused there to be less area for water to percolate into to replenish the Biscayne aquifer," says Fred Bloetscher, deputy utilities director for Hollywood, a Broward County coastal city, "and as a result it's lowered the aquifer head, and that lowered head allows saltwater to creep farther inland. The increased demand only makes the problem worse during the dry season when there's no real ability for replenishment to occur in most of the Everglades system."

When people began moving to South Florida in large numbers early in the century, they settled along the eastern coastal ridge. Directly beneath this ridge is the Biscayne aquifer, one of the largest and highest quality concentrations of fresh groundwater in the world. Cities drilled their wells and everything was fine for the most part until about the 1960s, when water from the wells began to taste a little salty.


Link

See ya


invest_DEACTIVATE_al942011.ren 08-Jun-2011 12:04 3.3K

Quoting emcf30:


Solar Tsunami Heading Earth's Way; Auroras to be Visible on Thursday

Link

Very cool...Thanks for posting it.

Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
See ya


invest_DEACTIVATE_al942011.ren 08-Jun-2011 12:04 3.3K

been expecting that...

Time to put this thing in the coffin:
invest_DEACTIVATE_al942011.ren 08-Jun-2011 12:04 3.3K

Quoting P451:


But...but..but... the CMC said it would be a CAT 2 hitting SFLA today! All the models developed it hundreds of hours in advance! This can't be!

LOL

Quoting hydrus:
Very cool...Thanks for posting it.

Your welcome. Hows things in the Vol State this morning

Quoting Neapolitan:
Supposed to be near 100 all over the eastern seaboard today and (especially) tomorrow. I've now heard two mets--obvious devotees of the same forecasting service--say that this will almost certainly be the hottest day many cities will see all year. IOW, it will get no warmer the entire rest of the summer. That seems to me a bit presumptuous given that it's, you know, only the first week of June. But what do I know?

Anyway, this should make some feel better about next week:

8 - 14 Day (click for larger image):



:-\

Bet the Northeast gets 100 degree temps in July and August also, good news for them is their heat will not last too long, they get some relief with a front or rain. Here in Texas only relief we get will be something tropical or you wait until October when a front comes down. In 2009, we had 69 days of over 100 degree heat but the first one wasnt until June 13th. We have already had 8 100 degree days here and Summer is still 2 weeks away. The yearly average where I live is 12. I would love a tropical depression give Florida to Texas alot of rain and soon. Have a great day!

Quoting P451:


But...but..but... the CMC said it would be a CAT 2 hitting SFLA today! All the models developed it hundreds of hours in advance! This can't be!

Bummer.....I had the keg cooler and grill prepped for 94L....cry,.sniffle...:(

Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
See ya


invest_DEACTIVATE_al942011.ren 08-Jun-2011 12:04 3.3K

Back to the waiting game, R.I.P. 94L...... Guess the basin isn't quite ready for Arlene....
Adrian on the other hand, well.... Cat.2 or Category 3 hurricane is in store for this nicely packed little Tropical Storm.....

Fire...baaad.

Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
See ya


invest_DEACTIVATE_al942011.ren 08-Jun-2011 12:04 3.3K

Dead. RIP.

$$

Quoting Grothar:
QUOTING CYCLONICVOYAGE:

This is not what I wanted to hear, the first thing in the morning.

I know, I know. I figured my extreme wishcasting would seal the deal yesterday. Looks like the firefighters west of Miami battling the wildfire are getting rather desperate.

Quoting FLdewey:
It's not like this is the first year the rainy season is a tad late... sometimes it's late June.

Keep those sprinklers runnin!

maybe

Local 10 hurricane specialist Max Mayfield said this will probably be the latest start to the rainy season ever in South Florida. He said the rain is coming, but it will take quite some time to make up the rainfall deficit

Quoting emcf30:

Your welcome. Hows things in the Vol State this morning

Actually, I am in Port Charlotte, FL working on houses that were abandoned after Charley. The county bought most of them and the company I work for makes them new again. Its a lot of work..

Quoting hydrus:
Actually, I am in Port Charlotte, FL working on houses that were abandoned after Charley. The county bought most of them and the company I work for makes them new again. Its a lot of work..

I bet you do have your work cut out for you there. Well then Welcome to the Sunshine State..

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
758 AM EDT WED JUN 8 2011


THUR-FRI...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS NORTH OF FLORIDA INTO
LATE WEEK WITH A LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE AREA.
MODELS SHOW A WEAK DISTURBANCE BUILDING NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL
FLORIDA THURSDAY ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA
ALOFT. MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED TO THE LOW LEVELS...HOWEVER THIS
DISTURBANCE MAY BE ABLE TO AID IN CONVECTION LATER IN THE DAY. WILL
THEREFORE KEEP ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM WORDING IN FOR THURS
AFT.

THE FORECAST FOR FRI IS MORE UNCERTAIN AS MODELS SHOW A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING NORTH TO NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF CARIBBEAN. THE
ECMWF AND NAM HAVE THIS SYSTEM TRACKING NORTHWARD CLOSE TO THE EAST
COAST OF FL...WHILE THE GFS IS MUCH FARTHER EAST. THE NAM SOLUTION
HOWEVER LOOKS TOO STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH A FAVORED PREFERENCE
IN TRACK AND STRENGTH BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF. MOISTURE SHOULD
INCREASE OVER THE AREA AS SYSTEM BUILDS NORTHWARD WITH POPS UP TO
30% OVER THE INTERIOR WHERE AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS FAVORED WITH EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER IF THE LOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TRACK CLOSER TO FLORIDA...AS
IN THE ECMWF SOLUTION...RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE COAST MAY NEED TO BE
HIGHER.

HIGHS EACH DAY WILL REACH" onClick="return popup(this, 'notes')">REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST TO LOW
90S INLAND. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW 70S...WITH MID 70S ALONG THE
COAST WHERE ONSHORE FLOW REMAINS ELEVATED.

SAT-TUES...WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE A NORTH TO NORTHEASTWARD
TRACK OFFSHORE OF FLORIDA INTO THE WEEKEND WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH POSITIONING ITSELF ACROSS THE STATE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INCREASE AS THE WEAK LOW PULLS AWAY
FROM THE AREA WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED EACH
AFT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. SINCE MOISTURE IS
NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE DRAMATICALLY INTO THE EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL
KEEP POPS LIMITED TO 30 PERCENT. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SKIES GENERALLY PARTLY
CLOUDY.

&&

SDO's images show a very large eruption of cool gas. It is somewhat unique as at many places in the eruption there seems to be even cooler material -- at temperatures less than 80,000 degrees Kelvin.
(143540.3 F)

Adrian is well on his way to becoming a hurricane; he should be one later today.

EP, 01, 2011060812, , BEST, 0, 123N, 1009W, 55, 995, TS, 50, NEQ, 30, 0, 0, 30, 1008, 200, 30, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ADRIAN, D,

Quoting emcf30:

I bet you do have your work cut out for you there. Well then Welcome to the Sunshine State..

Quoting emcf30:

I bet you do have your work cut out for you there. Well then Welcome to the Sunshine State..

I was born and raised in South Florida and still call it home. My parents moved to Tennessee after the 2004 hurricane season. I was up there taking care of them. Now my sister in not well, so I had to come back home to help her with the company...work, work and more work..:)