Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Arizona wildfires spread smoke 1,000 miles; 94L little threat to develop

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:50 PM GMT on June 07, 2011

Smoke from Arizona's third largest fire on record, the massive Wallow fire, has now blown downwind over 1,000 miles to Iowa. The fire, which is 0% contained, is expected to rage full-force for at least three more days due to unfavorable weather. Hot, dry, and windy weather is predicted again today over Eastern Arizona, where NOAA has issued red flag warnings for critical fire conditions. A large trough of low pressure is anchored over the Southwest, and several disturbances rippling along this trough will bring strong southwesterly surface winds of 20 - 30 mph, with gusts near 35 mph, through Thursday. Extremely low humidities of 5 - 15% and hot summer temperatures are also expected, creating a dangerous fire weather situation. Yesterday, Luna, New Mexico, located about 50 miles northeast of the fire, had wind gusts in excess of 30 mph for 8 hours, temperatures near 80°F, and humidities as low as 12%. During the day yesterday, the fire grew from 300 square miles to 365 square miles, 30% of the size of Rhode Island. A separate fire burning in Southeast Arizona, the 163-square-mile Horseshoe Two fire, is the state's 5th largest fire on record. According to the Interagency Fire Center, 3.5 million acres have burned in the U.S. so far this year, the most on record for this early in the year--and more than double the 10-year average from 2001 - 2010 of 1.4 million acres. Extreme to exceptional drought conditions over most of Texas, New Mexico, and Eastern Arizona are largely responsible for the record fire season.

Figure 1. Active wildfires and smoke as visualized at 9am EDT June 7, 2011 using our wundermap for the U.S. with the Fire layer turned on. Smoke from the Wallow fire and Horseshoe Two fire in Arizona extended more than 1,000 miles, covering most of the Midwest.

Figure 2. Smoke billows from the rapidly growing Wallow fire in Eastern Arizona in this image taken by NASA's Aqua satellite on June 6, 2011. The fire beneath the smoke is outlined in red. A large pyrocumulus cloud spawned by the fire is visible along the Arizona-New Mexico border. Pyrocumulus clouds are produced by the intense heating associated with fires or volcanic eruptions. Image credit: NASA Natural Hazards website.

Caribbean disturbance 94L little threat to develop
The large, disorganized tropical disturbance (Invest 94L) in the Western Caribbean near Jamaica is looking much less organized this morning, but is still capable of bringing heavy rains as it pushes slowly northwards at less than 5 mph. Satellite estimates of rainfall for the 24-hour period ending at 8pm EDT Monday night run as high as 5 inches for northeastern Nicaragua and Honduras, with 2 - 4 inches falling over portions of Jamaica and southeast Cuba. Satellite loops show a decrease in the heavy thunderstorm activity and organization of 94L in recent hours, and the storm's low-level spiral bands and upper-level outflow are very poorly defined. The storm's center of low pressure is located about 100 miles south-southeast of Grand Cayman Island. Water vapor satellite loops show the Caribbean is quite moist, and water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 28 - 28.5°C, which is 2°C above the threshold needed to support development of a tropical storm. Wind shear has edged into the high range, 20 - 25 knots, which has probably contributed to 94L's deterioration.

Figure 3. Morning satellite image of 94L.

Since 94L is so large and poorly organized, today's mission by the Hurricane Hunters has been cancelled. The storm is moving slowly to the north, into a band of very high wind shear of 30 - 50 knots that lies over Cuba and the southern Bahama Islands. The SHIPS model predicts shear will rise above 30 knots by late tonight, which will make development into a tropical depression difficult. This morning's 00Z and 06Z model runs were unimpressed with 94L, with most of them showing little or no development. The 00Z run of the NOGAPS model predicts that a gap may open up in the shear sufficient for the storm to organize into a tropical depression late this week, but this is looking increasingly unlikely. At 8am EDT today, NHC gave 94L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday. Regardless of development, 94L is capable of bringing heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches to Jamaica, eastern Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and Haiti through Thursday. These rains will probably spread northwards into the Bahama Islands, and possibly South Florida, by Thursday or Friday.

Jeff Masters

Wallow Fire (azmtnmama)

AZ Smoke in Colorado Springs (colosprgs)

Past several days Pikes Peak and foothills covered in smoke. Photo taken at 3:30pm.

Wallow Fire (azmtnmama)

Categories: Fire

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151. wolftribe2009 4:50 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
Quoting JLPR2: Yeah, the rotation is evident. Quite an interesting feature. Oh Wow! That is impressive! That to me is a major concern when looking for the next tropical depression to form. All my eyes are going to continue to be on this area now. Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 6 Comments: 752

153. FtMyersgal 4:50 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
What is the shear looking like in the GOM? I'm at the baby-step start to trying to read the shear maps. TIA Member Since: September 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 995

155. iamajeepmom 4:52 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
Hello Kitty ... you have wumail Member Since: June 5, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 64

156. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 4:54 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
tropical/general weather information Link Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40528

157. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 4:55 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40528

158. kwgirl 4:57 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
Quoting CatfishJones: 85. Please tell me that you are joking. Especially about frustration. Drums are musical instruments unless you have a talking drum and are trained in the art of speaking across long stretches of African geography with it. Incidentally, relieving your stress at the cost of pissing off your neighbors is simply not nice. Go buy a voodoo doll and scatter some bones on a table. It's less disruptive. It is an American Indian drum and is not very loud. I did try this that year and it rained. Since I only experimented with it that one time I guess you could call it a coincidence. But our drought did break that year. It did take me a few tries over several days, but it did work. Remember that people have tried all kinds of sound, fireworks, rockets, etc to cause rain. When it rained the methods were given credit, when it didn't then they were discredited. I put it in the league of praying for rain. People still do that. I guess the difference is that when people pray for rain and don't get it that there is a higher power whose intentions are never clear to us. Member Since: March 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1530

159. stormpetrol 4:59 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
Don't be surprised if 94L chances are bumped up at to 30% again at 2pm est. Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6396

160. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 5:01 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
lunch is done be back at 3 for 15 Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40528

161. wolftribe2009 5:03 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
Quoting stormpetrol: Don't be surprised if 94L chances are bumped up at to 30% again at 2pm est. I agree Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 6 Comments: 752

163. VAstorms 5:04 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
Quoting RitaEvac: Hmmm, we should start a massive fire in SE TX to create pyrocumulus clouds, so it will create rain.... They only seem to create more lightning not rain. We had a massive one over Santa Fe last night and only lightning no rain. The smoke is awful here. Hard to breathe at night as almost no one has air conditioning here. Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 146

164. jeffs713 5:04 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
Quoting aquak9: What is GOM? Gulf Of Mexico. CONUS is CONtinental United States. LBAR is Laughter Beer And Ribs, CMC is Crack Monkey Clown. XTRAP is a model but I don't know what it stands for. "CMC is Crack Monkey Clown. " cracked me up. Concerning tropical cyclogenesis.... the CMC frequently is "Crack Monkey Clown". (I used to know it as "Constantly Making Cyclones") Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 15 Comments: 5722

165. aquak9 5:06 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
hahaha jeffs "I don't wanna work, I wanna bang on de drum all day.." Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25007

167. wunderkidcayman 5:07 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
925 vort has also increased with 94L within the convective activity on the SE side if the broad LLC at 17.4N 81.8W slowly moving to the ESE850 vort as also increased slightly in the same area 700 vort is now also in the same area but weak 500 vort still missing Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 5418

168. NRAamy 5:08 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
"CMC is Crack Monkey Clown. " cracked me up. Concerning tropical cyclogenesis.... the CMC frequently is "Crack Monkey Clown". (I used to know it as "Constantly Making Cyclones") hahahahahaha!!! :) Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 315 Comments: 31937

169. MrMixon 5:10 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
I coulda swore XTRAP stood for "X-ray Tracking of Really Awesome Precipitation"... Ya learn sumthin' every day! ;-) Member Since: March 26, 2006 Posts: 38 Comments: 968

171. stormpetrol 5:19 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
I think 94L is organizing quite nicely this afternoon , lets see how long it will last, it still has a decent shot at becoming a name storm in my opinion. Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6396

174. OrchidGrower 5:22 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
Thanks for the awesome list, Hurrykane -- I saved that to Word on my desktop! Member Since: September 24, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 310

178. 7544 5:26 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
so will the new blob to the east over cuba connect with 94l and become one big blob dispite the shear hmmmm getting intresting now . Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5925

180. stormwatcherCI 5:30 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
Quoting stormpetrol: I think 94L is organizing quite nicely this afternoon , lets see how long it will last, it still has a decent shot at becoming a name storm in my opinion. I told a co-worker this morning that I have a feeling today is the day 94L will begin better organization. Convection pretty steady over the coc. Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8039

181. cg2916 5:30 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
Why is there a BanTech and a BeanTech? Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 2908

182. cchsweatherman 5:31 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
Quoting jasonweatherman2010: i see a low pressure spin next to Puerto Rico confirm to. Quoting alfabob: I see something on radar Link All the surface observations in the area are reporting southerly winds from the Dominican Republic across Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. There is no low associated with this disturbed weather. Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 4926

183. wolftribe2009 5:31 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
Could any of you get me a link to wind shear readings for the Caribbean? That way I know how much in in the area. Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 6 Comments: 752

185. stormwatcherCI 5:34 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
Quoting wolftribe2009: Could any of you get me a link to wind shear readings for the Caribbean? That way I know how much in in the area. Link Click on Data and Imagery, hurricane/tropical storm images and then 24 hour images etc in the Atlantic basin Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8039

186. 7544 5:35 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
Quoting Hurrykane: That, and it's not even related to 94L. but could it be fueling 94l at this point tia Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5925

187. stormwatcherCI 5:35 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
NHC says 10% Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8039

189. blsealevel 5:36 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
GOMEX: Gulf Of Mexico GOM is my version sorry for the mass confusion but their will be a 50/50 chance that i'll cause mass confusion agian or not. Link Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1916

191. cchsweatherman 5:38 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
Not a surprise at all: TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT TUE JUN 7 2011 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUES PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF HAITI... THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...JAMAICA...AND CUBA AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 4926

192. cchsweatherman 5:40 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
Quoting alfabob: Yea I see those winds on the radar, I also see something trying to form although it doesn't have a closed circulation. Definitely west (270) winds on the S side of it and some north (0) winds forming on the W side of it. Should not use radar imagery to determine the formation of low pressure. Visible and RGB imagery as well as ASCAT and surface observations are the way to go in determining the formation of low pressure and so far, there is little evidence of formation at this point. Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 4926

193. 7544 5:40 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
cool if it hold so fla can get a good amount of rain correct ? AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5925

196. wolftribe2009 5:44 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
Wind Shear decreasing over past 24 hours near Puerto Rico Link Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 6 Comments: 752

197. cchsweatherman 5:44 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
Quoting 7544: cool if it hold so fla can get a good amount of rain correct ? AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. Hard to determine the rain amounts South Florida could get from this system considering the models still aren't in good agreement on the evolution of the system and the timing of the migration northbound. The NAM shows a closed low coming over South Florida late Thursday and moving through quickly. ECMWF slows the system down and has a Friday and Saturday event with remnant moisture and vorticity in the area afterwards. The GFS is pretty conservative and doesn't show much rainfall and shows the main bulk of the disturbance splitting off to the SW Atlantic and the Central GOM. Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 4926

198. chevycanes 5:44 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
i'm surprised they even gave it a 10% chance, more like 1%. Member Since: August 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 687

199. cchsweatherman 5:45 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
Quoting Hurrykane: Good to see you, cchs Thanks. Good to see you too. Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 4926

201. blsealevel 5:51 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
Link Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1916

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