Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Missouri River flood hits unprecedented flow rates

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:18 PM GMT on June 17, 2011

The most expensive tornado/severe weather disaster in American history is the great May 21 - 26, 2011 storm that spawned the Joplin, Missouri EF-5 tornado. According to catastrophe modeling firm AIR Worldwide, insured damages from that storm will amount to $4 - $7 billion, the greatest damages ever for a spring severe weather outbreak. However, the damages from the huge, slow-moving low pressure system that spawned the Joplin tornado have not yet been fully realized. The powerful storm pumped huge quantities of warm, moisture-laden air from the Gulf of Mexico northwestwards into Montana, where the moisture condensed into record-breaking heavy rain and snow. In portions of eastern Montana, the storm brought a year's worth of precipitation in a week, swelling the tributaries of the Missouri River to unprecedented heights. Billings, Montana recorded 9.54" of precipitation in May, its single wettest month on record, and not far from its annual average precipitation of 14.5". A great 100-year flood has arrived along the Missouri River and its tributaries from Montana to Nebraska. Record spring rains, combined with snow melt from record or near-record winter and spring snows, brought the Missouri River at Williston, North Dakota to 30' today (June 17), two feet above the record crest set in 1912. Tributaries to the Missouri, such as the North Platte River in Nebraska, are also flooding at all-time record heights. With warm summer temperatures and 2 - 5" of rainfall expected over much of the area during the coming week, snow melt and rain runoff will swell area rivers even further, creating an even more dangerous flood.

Flooding along the Missouri River has already broken two levees and closed two portions of I-29, a key trucking route that extends from Kansas City through Iowa, South Dakota and North Dakota to the Canadian border. A 20-mile stretch between Council Bluffs and the Missouri Valley area is closed, as well as a 22-mile section in southwest Iowa and northwest Missouri, causing significant disruptions to the trucking industry.

Figure 1. Satellite image taken at 5:45pm CDT May 22, 2011, when the Joplin, Missouri tornado was occurring. The counter-clockwise flow of air around the spiraling low pressure system that caused the Joplin tornado drew large quantities of Gulf of Mexico air into Montana, creating record-breaking rains. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Figure 2. Levee breach along the Missouri River levee L-575 near Hamburg, Iowa, on June 14, 2011. The town of Hamburg is being protected by a new temporary levee. So far, only farmland has flooded. Image credit: U.S. Army Corps of Engineers.

Army Corps cranks up water releases on Missouri River dams to double the previous record
Six flood control dams lie on the Missouri River between eastern Montana and Sioux City, Iowa; these dams were built between 1940 and 1964. As water from this spring's record precipitation have flowed into the Missouri River basin, the reservoirs behind these dams have risen to record levels. On May 31, the Army Corps of Engineers was forced to open the the spillway gates on the massive Garrison Dam, 50 miles northwest of Bismark, North Dakota. It was the first time since the dam was built in 1955 that the spillway gates were opened. (Remarkably, during 2007 and early 2008, Lake Sakakawea water levels behind Garrison Dam were the lowest since the dam was built--46 feet below the current level--thanks to a decade-long drought.) On June 3, as the record flood progressed downstream, the spillway gates on the Big Bend Dam opened for the first time since that dam was completed in 1964. This week, the Army Corps of Engineers increased water flowing through all six dams to more than double the previous highs set during the floods of 1975 and 1997. The flow rates are now a massive 150,000 cubic feet per second, 1.5 times greater than the typical flow of Niagara Falls. These extreme flow rates will need to be maintained into at least mid-August, and are expected to severely strain levees on the Missouri River as it flows through North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Iowa, Missouri, and Kansas. According to a press conference put on by NWS and the Army Corps last week, the Missouri River flood control system is based on an 1881 estimate of the maximum amount of water an extreme flood season could generate--40 million acre-feet of water during the spring and summer flood season. However, this year's flood is expected to pump 42 - 43 million acre feet of water into the system, stressing it beyond its designed limits. In May alone, the Missouri River basin just upstream from Sioux City, Iowa, received 10.2 million acre feet of water, more than 25% above the previous May record of 7.2 million acre feet set in 1995. Additional levee failures along the Missouri are likely this summer, particularly if widespread heavy summer rains occur.

Figure 3. The Oahe Reservoir Stilling Basin north of Pierre, S.D., on June 5, 2011. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers increased the water releases from the Oahe Dam into the stilling basin to a record 147,000 cubic feet per second (cfs) of water release on June 8. The previous record was 59,000 cfs in 1997. Image credit: U.S. Army Corps of Engineers/ Carlos J. Lazo

Four-day period of critical fire conditions expected in the Southwest
Powerful southwest winds of 20 - 30 mph, gusting to 40 mph will continue through Saturday in Eastern Arizona and western New Mexico, making progress containing the region's severe fires difficult. Even worse conditions are begin predicted for Sunday, when NOAA's Storm Prediction Center forecasts forecasts that wind gusts up to 50 mph will occur. With hot conditions and humidity values below 10%, these are likely to be among the worst fire conditions the region has seen this year.

While the exceptional drought gripping Arizona is largely to blame for terrible fire conditions this year, unusually windy and dry weather has also been a significant factor. These windy and dry conditions have been caused, in part, by a stronger-than-average jet stream over the region. According to the National Weather Service in Phoenix, the period April-May 2011 was the 11th windiest and had the 6th lowest average relative humidity value on record in Phoenix. Combined, it was the 3rd windiest-driest April-May on record.

Our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has an interesting post on The Worst Wild Fires in World History. Arizona's Wallow Fire, at 750 square miles, has a long way to go before matching the largest fire in U.S. history, the great Peshtigo Fire of 1871. That fire burned 5,938 square miles of Wisconsin and Michigan.

Tallahassee hits 105°, their hottest day on record
On Wednesday June 15 at 307 PM EDT, the Tallahassee Regional Airport in Florida recorded a high temperature of 105 degrees. This temperature breaks the previous all time high temperature record for Tallahassee of 104 degrees, set most recently on June 20th 1933. The period of record for Tallahassee dates back to 1892.

The Atlantic is quiet
The Atlantic is quiet, with no tropical cyclones predicted over the next seven days by the reliable computer models. However, the GFS model predicts that moisture will begin increasing early next week in the western Gulf of Mexico, and a tropical disturbance could form next week in the Gulf, bringing much-needed rains to the coast of Texas. Droughts of the magnitude of the current Texas drought are hard to break, though, so I'd like to see more support from the models before believing in this forecast.

Have a great weekend everyone! I'll be back Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters

ABANDONED For Wetland Project in Flood (BEME)

Another old farmstead,within the wetlands 'project'..near Highway 2 [to Nebraska City,Nebraska]..Water's getting higher. [photo taken Wednesday afternoon]

Won't be Open Much Longer (Nikongranny)

Highway 2 east of Nebraska City will be closing very soon.

Trying to Keep Ahead (Nikongranny)

of the approaching water. Crews working frantically building this earth berm to keep the advancing Missouri River out of Hamburg.

Categories: Flood

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701. Grothar 8:23 PM GMT on June 18, 2011
Quoting presslord: odd beat ..kinda hard to dance to... Come on press, it's the theme song to North by Northwest!!!! If Cary Grant could do it, so can you. Movie took place in the Dakota's by the way. LOL Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19519

702. Levi32 8:23 PM GMT on June 18, 2011
18z analysis has the wave inland, WNW of its previous position: Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25445

703. bohonkweatherman 8:24 PM GMT on June 18, 2011
107.2 in the shade, winds gusting to 35 mph. Temps seem to be going up in Texas every day due to drought get worse every day. Seeing temps in area around 110 which are approaching all time highs for area. Member Since: July 5, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1348

704. stormwatcherCI 8:25 PM GMT on June 18, 2011
Quoting Levi32: 18z analysis has the wave inland, WNW of its previous position: Levi, what do you think about the wave just to the east of the islands ? Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8039

705. Levi32 8:28 PM GMT on June 18, 2011
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25445

706. Tazmanian 8:29 PM GMT on June 18, 2011
what week dos lader day weekend fall on? is it the 1st week of SEP or the last week of SEP? Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111341

707. Levi32 8:30 PM GMT on June 18, 2011
Quoting stormwatcherCI: Levi, what do you think about the wave just to the east of the islands ? It looks the nicest of any central Atlantic wave we've had so far. It may prove significant if it piles its energy into the west Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico later next week. Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25445

708. Tropicsweatherpr 8:30 PM GMT on June 18, 2011
Quoting Levi32: 18z analysis has the wave inland, WNW of its previous position: Here is a closer view. Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 64 Comments: 8151

709. CosmicEvents 8:32 PM GMT on June 18, 2011
Quoting Grothar: Come on press, it's the theme song to North by Northwest!!!! If Cary Grant could do it, so can you. Movie took place in the Dakota's by the way. LOL Idle banter Alert! Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5098

710. aquak9 8:32 PM GMT on June 18, 2011
(snork) The Dakotas- check It's pretty bad when I'm like BEGGING the NHC to use thier crayons, I oughtta send'm some...remember last year I went to every Walmart and Kmart in the Miami-Dade region and bought them all out. Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25007

711. Levi32 8:33 PM GMT on June 18, 2011
By the way, have any of you seen this story about the new dual-polarized radar the NWS is implementing? Apparently they are starting in Phoenix. Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25445

713. blsealevel 8:37 PM GMT on June 18, 2011
Someone asked whats the difference between a 500 MB and a 850 MB model run? sorry my Quote button ant working for some resone but anyway The 500 mb level is often refered to as the steering level as most weather systems and precipitation follow the winds at this level. The winds follow the height contours and generally run from 30 to 100 knots. The speeds can be roughly estimated from the 300 mb winds as roughly 2/3rds their magnitude. This level averages around 18,000 feet above sea level and is roughly half-way up through the weather producing part of the atmosphere called the troposphere. The 850 mb chart details weather conditions at the 850 mb level or around 5000 feet above sea level. well something along those lines the link can explain it better then I. Link Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1916

714. WatchingThisOne 8:39 PM GMT on June 18, 2011
This has probably been posted here already, but for others who haven't seen it ... US National Solar Observatory Is the Sunspot Cycle Going into Hybernation? Be sure to read the added note, perhaps first. One of the authors stresses that they are NOT predicting a mini-ice age. Sadly, more fodder for the global warming conflict. Anyways, we may not see sunspot cycle #25 for some time, perhaps decades, if the authors are correct. Interesting read. WTO Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 1249

715. PensacolaBuoy 8:40 PM GMT on June 18, 2011
I'm sure someone must have posted this already, but in case you didn't see it... Link USA Today: Looming gap in weather satellites threatens forecasting Member Since: July 28, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 348

716. WatchingThisOne 8:42 PM GMT on June 18, 2011
beell - great mod on your profile pic!!! Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 1249

718. stormwatcherCI 8:48 PM GMT on June 18, 2011
Quoting Levi32: It looks the nicest of any central Atlantic wave we've had so far. It may prove significant if it piles its energy into the west Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico later next week. Thank you. Convection has been increasing with it all day and I know shear is not too high in that area. Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8039

719. Barefootontherocks 8:51 PM GMT on June 18, 2011
Quoting Levi32: By the way, have any of you seen this story about the new dual-polarized radar the NWS is implementing? Apparently they are starting in Phoenix. Wow.Wow.Wow. The Feds gave NWS the radar. There will be a learning curve for mets before it's fully implemented, but still... Wow. From the link: The dual polarization system, which was installed inside the National Weather Service's radar tower about two weeks ago, now is up and running as part of a six-month test run across the United States. Phoenix-Mesa Gateway is the nation's first airport to receive the technology, with five more cities to follow: Norman, Okla.; Vance Air Force Base, Okla.; Wichita, Kan.; Pittsburgh, Pa., and Morehead City, N.C. Its effectiveness will be reviewed in the months ahead before 131 dual polarization systems are deployed across the nation by mid-2013... Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 135 Comments: 16297

720. WatchingThisOne 8:53 PM GMT on June 18, 2011
Quoting PensacolaBuoy: I'm sure someone must have posted this already, but in case you didn't see it... Link USA Today: Looming gap in weather satellites threatens forecasting Doesn't sound like a looming gap to me. That's a delay of 18 months with a 24-month fuel buffer. It's not like the thing is going to fall apart on the last day of the 5th year. It would be nice to have a 2-year buffer rather than a 6-month buffer, but the US is in quite dire straights financially. Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 1249

721. presslord 8:54 PM GMT on June 18, 2011
Quoting CosmicEvents: Idle banter Alert! mindless idle banter Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10377

722. CybrTeddy 8:56 PM GMT on June 18, 2011
Not a very exciting day for sure. Don't worry though, we're going to be seeing some action within the next 3 weeks more than likely. I hear thunder outside. BBL. Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20235

723. weatherh98 9:02 PM GMT on June 18, 2011
Quoting WatchingThisOne: This has probably been posted here already, but for others who haven't seen it ... US National Solar Observatory Is the Sunspot Cycle Going into Hybernation? Be sure to read the added note, perhaps first. One of the authors stresses that they are NOT predicting a mini-ice age. Sadly, more fodder for the global warming conflict. Anyways, we may not see sunspot cycle #25 for some time, perhaps decades, if the authors are correct. Interesting read. WTO interesting Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6091

724. Barefootontherocks 9:04 PM GMT on June 18, 2011
Quoting srada: Hey Guys.. Can anyone tell me whats the difference between a 500 MB and a 850 MB model run? The same model run will show both 850 and 500. Levels is the difference. 850 closer to surface, 500 midlevel. ... N by NW, just Mt. Rushmore. The Iowa cornfield scene was the best. :) Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 135 Comments: 16297

725. Ylee 9:06 PM GMT on June 18, 2011
Did someone say mindless idle banter? I know next to nothing about tropical systems, but I'm an expert at mindless idle banter! Slow day at the blogs, ain't it? :) Member Since: February 3, 2011 Posts: 65 Comments: 11299

726. srada 9:07 PM GMT on June 18, 2011
Quoting Barefootontherocks: The same model run will show both 850 and 500. Levels is the difference. 850 closer to surface, 500 midlevel. N by NW, just Mt. Rushmore. The Iowa cornfield scene was the best. :) Thank you! Member Since: August 17, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 772

728. Levi32 9:07 PM GMT on June 18, 2011
Quoting Barefootontherocks: Wow.Wow.Wow. The Feds gave NWS the radar. There will be a learning curve for mets before it's fully implemented, but still... Wow. From the link: The dual polarization system, which was installed inside the National Weather Service's radar tower about two weeks ago, now is up and running as part of a six-month test run across the United States. Phoenix-Mesa Gateway is the nation's first airport to receive the technology, with five more cities to follow: Norman, Okla.; Vance Air Force Base, Okla.; Wichita, Kan.; Pittsburgh, Pa., and Morehead City, N.C. Its effectiveness will be reviewed in the months ahead before 131 dual polarization systems are deployed across the nation by mid-2013... I know! I can't wait. Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25445

729. emcf30 9:09 PM GMT on June 18, 2011
Quoting Tazmanian: what week dos lader day weekend fall on? is it the 1st week of SEP or the last week of SEP? I believe it is Sept 5th this year Member Since: August 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1926

730. aspectre 9:13 PM GMT on June 18, 2011
Only in that mindless idle banter can be published as if it were a real research paper. Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4846

731. stormwatcherCI 9:13 PM GMT on June 18, 2011
Quoting Tazmanian: what week dos lader day weekend fall on? is it the 1st week of SEP or the last week of SEP? Labor Day in the USA falls on the first Monday of September. Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8039

732. blsealevel 9:14 PM GMT on June 18, 2011
THE GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 29N. 5-10 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE OVER THE E GULF WHILE 10-15 KT SOUTHERLY FLOW IS OVER THE W GULF DUE TO A SLIGHTLY TIGHTER SURFACE GRADIENT. FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE GULF EXCEPT OVER THE SE GULF. A TROPICAL WAVE IS NOW IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 24N E OF 87W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER N MEXICO NEAR 25N100W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE GULF EXCEPT OVER FLORIDA...CUBA...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. EXPECT...MORE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...CUBA...THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1916

733. Levi32 9:16 PM GMT on June 18, 2011
Quoting alfabob: This is the week for development though due to MJO, so either things start getting more active throughout the evening and night or its going to be around 2-3 weeks until the tropics have another chance (looks relatively active for this time of year). That is a pretty active picture for mid-June. Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25445

734. aquak9 9:17 PM GMT on June 18, 2011
Quoting Ylee: Did someone say mindless idle banter? I know next to nothing about tropical systems, but I'm an expert at mindless idle banter! Slow day at the blogs, ain't it? :) yep. My brain's so fried, I can't even add in to the mindlessness. Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25007

735. emcf30 9:22 PM GMT on June 18, 2011
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 510 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... EASTERN VOLUSIA COUNTY IN FLORIDA... THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...SOUTH DAYTONA...PORT ORANGE...PONCE INLET...ORMOND BEACH...HOLLY HILL...DAYTONA BEACH... * UNTIL 615 PM EDT. * AT 506 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR DAYTONA BEACH...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH. * OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO WILBUR BY THE SEA THE IMMEDIATE DANGER OF A TORNADO IS HIGH. PEOPLE IN THE PATH OF THIS DEVELOPING TORNADO ARE URGED TO QUICKLY PREPARE FOR ITS APPROACH. THIS IS A DANGEROUS SITUATION! ACT NOW AS SECONDS CAN SAVE LIVES! Member Since: August 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1926

736. Tropicsweatherpr 9:23 PM GMT on June 18, 2011
Levi, do you think 92E will not develop at all? Or it still has a chance? Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 64 Comments: 8151

737. weatherh98 9:24 PM GMT on June 18, 2011
I dont see circulation on the latest windsat pass, but, I do see >40kt winds on it. Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6091

738. CosmicEvents 9:24 PM GMT on June 18, 2011
Quoting aquak9: yep. My brain's so fried, I can't even add in to the mindlessness. I've heard blueberry juice helps your memory and brain power........ Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5098

739. weatherh98 9:25 PM GMT on June 18, 2011
Quoting weatherh98: I dont see circulation on the latest windsat pass, but, I do see >40kt winds on it. Carribean wave* Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6091

740. Levi32 9:26 PM GMT on June 18, 2011
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr: Levi, do you think 92E will not develop at all? Or it still has a chance? It has a decent chance to get classified as a TD or weak TS, but I don't see it getting too strong, as the upper-level pattern is not favorable. Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25445

741. blsealevel 9:27 PM GMT on June 18, 2011
These plots aid in tracking the location, intensity, and evolution of the eastern Atlantic Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). This product uses geosynchronous satellite imagery and therefore has the advantage of full coverage in space and frequent coverage in time. It uses cloud top temperatures as a proxy for surface convergence. The top plot shows the latest infrared (IR) brightness temperatures from GOES Channel 4. The bottom plot is a Hovmoller (time-latitude) diagram of the zonal mean brightness temperatures, newest time on the bottom. This allows you to track the evolution of the ITCZ(s). Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1916

742. GeoffreyWPB 9:32 PM GMT on June 18, 2011
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 9119

744. blsealevel 9:33 PM GMT on June 18, 2011
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1916

745. ShenValleyFlyFish 9:36 PM GMT on June 18, 2011
Quoting Patrap: There is no "NWN",,only NNW, NW,or WNW They don't teach that anymore it's not on the No Kid Left Behind testing curriculum. Member Since: September 9, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4684

746. Tropicsweatherpr 9:37 PM GMT on June 18, 2011
The POAMA model has backtracked as it had moderate El Nino for August,September and October a few weeks ago.Now it is lingering thru the 0.8C line of Neutral/Weak El Nino thru those peak months of the Atlantic hurricane season. Present forecast img Mid April forecast Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 64 Comments: 8151

747. lhwhelk 9:38 PM GMT on June 18, 2011
Quoting Tazmanian: what week dos lader day weekend fall on? is it the 1st week of SEP or the last week of SEP? Taz, it's easier to figure out if, like me and like Grothar, you are old enough to remember that school used not to start until AFTER Labor Day! And it ended BEFORE Memorial Day. Those were the days, my friend. This year, September 5. Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 54

748. blsealevel 9:38 PM GMT on June 18, 2011
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1916

749. GeoffreyWPB 9:40 PM GMT on June 18, 2011
The big picture: Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 9119

750. Levi32 9:40 PM GMT on June 18, 2011
There's a new tropical wave SSW of the Cape Verde Islands: Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25445

751. fatlady99 9:41 PM GMT on June 18, 2011
testing... Member Since: September 4, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 410

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