Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Floods overwhelm North Dakota levees; floods kill 175 in China

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:33 PM GMT on June 23, 2011

Flood waters from North Dakota's Souris River are pouring over the levees protecting Minot, North Dakota today, and flood heights are expected to rise to the highest levels in recorded history tonight. The Lake Darling flood control reservoir located about 15 miles upstream from Minot is full to overflowing, and record releases of water are occurring to prevent the lake's dam from over-topping. By this weekend, the Army Corps of Engineers will open the dam's flood gates to a maximum flow rate of 20,000 cubic feet per second, which is roughly double the flow rate that the levees in Minot can handle. Water began flowing over the levees yesterday, forcing the mandatory evacuation of 12,000 residents. By Sunday, water levels on the Souris River are expected to peak at four feet above the previous all-time flood height, set in 1881. Torrential rainfall in Canada on Sunday and Monday, combined with very heavy rainfall and snow melt over North Dakota over the past month, are responsible for the record flood. The Souris River Basin near the Rafferty Dam in Saskatchewan received four to seven inches of rain Sunday into Monday. Flood heights along the Souris River near the Canadian border upstream from Minot are already two feet above the previous all-time highest mark, and that pulse of water is now arriving in Minot. The unprecedented flood is expected to keep much of Minot underwater for at least two weeks. Fortunately, no new heavy rains are expected over the next five days, though up to 1/2" of rain could fall over portions of the Souris River watershed.

Figure 1. Still frame from a Youtube video of the Souris River in Minot, North Dakota flowing over the levees in that town. The video was shot on Wednesday June 22, 2011, from a North Dakota National Guard helicopter.

Figure 2. Observed (blue line) and forecast (green line) stage of the Souris River in Minot, North Dakota. The river is currently at its 3rd highest level on record, and is expected to rise above the record flood stage of 1558' tonight. The record was set back in 1881. Image credit: NOAA AHPS.

Record rains in China kill 175, do $5 billion in damage
Torrential rains triggered severe flooding in eastern China this week, with the death toll for June floods now standing at 175, with 86 people missing. Ironically, the same region experienced severe drought at the beginning of June. The estimated $5 billion in damage from the floods would make 2011 the third most expensive year for floods in China in the past decade. This year is the second consecutive year floods have caused exceptional damage in China. Last year, Western China saw summer precipitation more than 200% above average, and torrential monsoon rains triggered catastrophic landslides that killed 2137 people and did $759 million in damage. Monsoon floods in China killed an additional 1911 people, affected 134 million, and did $18 billion in damage in 2010, according to the WHO Collaborating Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED). This was the 2nd most expensive flooding disaster in Chinese history, behind the $30 billion price tag of the 1998 floods that killed 3656 people. China had floods in 1915, 1931, and 1959 that killed 3 million, 3.7 million, and 2 million people, respectively, but no damage estimates are available for these floods. During the period 2000 - 2009, China averaged $3.7 billion in damage and 674 deaths per year due to floods and landslides, according to the WHO Collaborating Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters. This does not include the toll from typhoons. Speaking of typhoons, Tropical Storm Meari, currently located a few hundred miles east of the Philippines' Luzon Island, is expected to track north-northwestwards towards China today and Friday. By Saturday, Meari is expected to be a Category 1 typhoon, and will spread heavy rains over eastern China, worsening the flooding situation there--though the heaviest rains will likely remain offshore.

Figure 3. Rainfall amounts in excess of 18 inches (450 mm) fell in Eastern China southeast of Shanghai in a 1-week period, June 13 -19, 2011. A China Daily report from June 18 described the rains in parts of Zhejiang Province as unprecedented. High waters broke 100-meter (300-foot) holes in levees, inundating nearby villages. Some homes were buried in 3 meters (10 feet) of water. This image is based on data from the Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis produced at Goddard Space Flight Center, which estimates rainfall by combining measurements from many satellites and calibrating them using rainfall measurements from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite. Image credit: NASA.

Figure 4. Visitors watch as water gushes out from the Xiaolangdi Reservoir on the Yellow River in Central China's Henan province, June 22, 2011. Image credit: Xinhua.

The Atlantic is quiet
The Atlantic is quiet, but several models, including the NOGAPS and GFS, are predicting that a tropical disturbance capable of becoming a tropical depression could form in the southern Gulf of Mexico in the Bay of Campeche Tuesday or Wednesday. There will be a strong ridge of high pressure over the Gulf next week, which would tend to keep any storm that might form far to the south, with impacts limited to Mexico and perhaps South Texas.

Jeff Masters

Sandbagging the Railroad (Nikongranny)

Massive sandbagging effort along railroad tracks through Pacific Junction, Iowa. Can't comprehend the amount of white plastic used in these efforts.

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101. kwgirl 5:46 PM GMT on June 23, 2011
Quoting swlaaggie: Stopped in Lake Charles as well. That wasn't a drought buster but it made a significant dent. Perfect long drawn out steady rains, intermixed with strong downpours, for about a day and half, especially yesterday. Even woke up to a good slow rain this morning. Truly wonderful. Even the lizards and birds have smiles. :) Member Since: March 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1530

103. stormwatcherCI 5:49 PM GMT on June 23, 2011
Quoting stormpetrol: Something is starting to happen in the tropical atlantic/caribbean, I can feel it :) My son just said the same thing. East End has gotten pretty choppy over the past few hours. It was smooth this morning when I came to work. Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8040

104. islander101010 5:50 PM GMT on June 23, 2011
Quoting stormpetrol: Something is starting to happen in the tropical atlantic/caribbean, I can feel it :) inverted trough moving through the central carib. we will be following it Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2968

105. 69Viking 5:53 PM GMT on June 23, 2011
Quoting DestinJeff: We may get some love this afternoon! You might in Destin but it looks like us in FWB are going to be in the dry area between storms that are going through Pensacola to Crestview and Storms in the Gulf lined up to hit Destin! We've had some bad luck lately with rains. Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2247

108. VAstorms 5:55 PM GMT on June 23, 2011
Quoting goavs4: New drought map out for us here in Texas, pretty remarkable to have 91% of the state in the extreme to exceptional, and a full 70% squarely in the exceptional category. The rains the past two days should help a tiny, tiny bit but we really need a long term wet pattern to establish itself or a couple of weak tropical systems to park over the state soon! New Mexico is at 100% with 90% extreme. We too need a break. No moisture this year except snow 10" snows in February. Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 146

111. Matt74 6:00 PM GMT on June 23, 2011
Quoting Patrap: All the major models have a role,,one looks for agreement among them or "consensus". The 2 groups,,statistical and Dynamic have their respective takes as well. Thank you Pat. Member Since: June 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 203

112. oreodogsghost 6:02 PM GMT on June 23, 2011
Hey there swla! Long time no visit. Member Since: February 2, 2009 Posts: 21 Comments: 1449

113. Waltanater 6:05 PM GMT on June 23, 2011
Quoting DEKRE: Is he a doctor? For God's sake Jim! You can't expect miracles. I'm a doctor, not a weatherman! Member Since: May 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 922

115. Tropicsweatherpr 6:06 PM GMT on June 23, 2011
12z NOGAPS continues to show a strong tropical storm. Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 64 Comments: 8199

117. AstroHurricane001 6:10 PM GMT on June 23, 2011
Anybody want to help update this article? 2011 Souris River flood Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2811

118. Patrap 6:10 PM GMT on June 23, 2011
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111503

119. oreodogsghost 6:12 PM GMT on June 23, 2011
Clouds are darkening in Houston - very juicy atmosphere (finally!) Member Since: February 2, 2009 Posts: 21 Comments: 1449

120. Patrap 6:14 PM GMT on June 23, 2011
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111503

122. CaicosRetiredSailor 6:14 PM GMT on June 23, 2011
Latest news from Minot ND is the COE notice of higher release rates upstream leading to the predicted crest being about THREE FEET higher than previously thought from peak of 1562.5 predicted to now possible 1566 not good via http://www.ustream.tv/channel/kxmcweathercenter Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5131

123. EYEStoSEA 6:21 PM GMT on June 23, 2011
Member Since: September 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1491

125. Patrap 6:30 PM GMT on June 23, 2011
Full-screen Station 42360 Petrobras Location: 26.700N 90.46W Conditions as of: Thu, 23 Jun 2011 17:00:00 UTC Winds: SE (140°) at 13.6 kt gusting to 17.5 kt Significant Wave Height: 3.6 ft Dominant Wave Period: 6 sec Atmospheric Pressure: 29.92 in and falling Air Temperature: 83.5 F Water Temperature: 85.6 F Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111503

126. CycloneUK 6:30 PM GMT on June 23, 2011
Member Since: March 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 39

128. bayeloi 6:32 PM GMT on June 23, 2011
Quoting oreodogsghost: Clouds are darkening in Houston - very juicy atmosphere (finally!) C'mon rain!!! Member Since: August 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 23

129. ProgressivePulse 6:33 PM GMT on June 23, 2011
Quoting TxHurricanedude11: 12z cmc is slighty farther south on this run High Pressure has been the dominant force this year in the south. I agree with Dr. Masters in that this will most likely stay south, maybe edge into southern Texas. Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 4326

130. Patrap 6:34 PM GMT on June 23, 2011
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111503

131. cyclonekid 6:35 PM GMT on June 23, 2011
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 51 Comments: 1629

133. Grothar 6:45 PM GMT on June 23, 2011
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19544

134. Grothar 6:48 PM GMT on June 23, 2011
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19544

135. PcolaDan 6:48 PM GMT on June 23, 2011
Quoting 69Viking: You might in Destin but it looks like us in FWB are going to be in the dry area between storms that are going through Pensacola to Crestview and Storms in the Gulf lined up to hit Destin! We've had some bad luck lately with rains. We've finally had about 1.75 inches here in the last 24 hours. Most of it in the last couple of hours. About time, most have had us surrounded, just like you. Looks like Ike is getting a good drenching right now too. Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6008

136. twhcracker 6:50 PM GMT on June 23, 2011
Quoting EYEStoSEA: omg thats unreal. look at bay county. its like bone dry with a giant purple and red blotch right beside it! I cant take it anymore ayyyyyyyyyyyy&%&^%&^$ snap* Member Since: July 30, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 1448

137. Patrap 6:50 PM GMT on June 23, 2011
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111503

138. PcolaDan 6:51 PM GMT on June 23, 2011
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor: Latest news from Minot ND is the COE notice of higher release rates upstream leading to the predicted crest being about THREE FEET higher than previously thought from peak of 1562.5 predicted to now possible 1566 not good via http://www.ustream.tv/channel/kxmcweathercenter Been watching that one, and here too. http://www.kmot.com/Video_LIVE_Coverage.asp#conta iner Tough when 25% of your population has to evacuate. Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6008

139. Patrap 6:53 PM GMT on June 23, 2011
Esp when ya behind COE Levee's and above sea Level.....1566ft Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111503

140. Patrap 6:55 PM GMT on June 23, 2011
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111503

141. ProgressivePulse 6:55 PM GMT on June 23, 2011
Quoting Grothar: Mean B/A high position is troubling to me. It's going to be a rough year for the states, IMO. Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 4326

142. Patrap 7:00 PM GMT on June 23, 2011
Are you ready for a hurricane? Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111503

143. DDR 7:03 PM GMT on June 23, 2011
I wonder if IKE is getting rain,i hope he does. Member Since: April 27, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 1475

144. PcolaDan 7:08 PM GMT on June 23, 2011
facebook page Minot Souris River Flood Information ND Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6008

145. Skyepony (Mod) 7:08 PM GMT on June 23, 2011
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 144 Comments: 29342

146. Grothar 7:09 PM GMT on June 23, 2011
Quoting ProgressivePulse: Mean B/A high position is troubling to me. It's going to be a rough year for the states, IMO. Look at this animation. Last time I saw anything like this was 1841. That is a strong high. Link Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19544

147. blsealevel 7:10 PM GMT on June 23, 2011
Quoting Patrap: Looks like we might get some more tonight pat Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1916

148. Patrap 7:10 PM GMT on June 23, 2011
Seems so. Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111503

150. EYEStoSEA 7:15 PM GMT on June 23, 2011
Hopefully....it's building...... Member Since: September 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1491

151. PcolaDan 7:17 PM GMT on June 23, 2011
These three tweets are scary. These people have been contracted to help build and shore up levees. @AEengineers Ackerman-Estvold All residents outside the evacuation areas in the valley need to immediately begin the evacuation process. #MinotFlood @AEengineers Ackerman-Estvold Water from the Lake Darling to Minot is moving with more velocity. Peaks are expected to hit Minot within 24 hours. #MinotFlood @AEengineers Ackerman-Estvold Update: EMERGENCY TRAVEL ONLY IN MINOT AT THIS TIME. http://ht.ly/5oWUJ #MinotFlood http://ht.ly/5oWUJ = Facebook update: Update: EMERGENCY TRAVEL ONLY IN MINOT AT THIS TIME....north/south routes are closed and the only route to get between North and South Minot at this time is the bypass...which is bottle necked due to traffic. PLEASE...EMERGENCY TRAVEL ONLY. -KX News Minot] Effective immediately, Broadway has been closed from Burdick Expressway to University Avenue. This will provide contractors more efficient access to secondary dikes. -City of Minot Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6008

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