2011 the most expensive year for natural disasters in history
An exceptional accumulation of very severe natural catastrophes, including earthquakes in Japan and New Zealand, tornadoes and flooding in the U.S., and flooding in Australia and New Zealand, make 2011 the highest-ever loss year on record, even after the first half-year, said re-insurance giant Munich Re in a press release this week. The $265 billion in economic losses accumulated this year exceeds the previous record year, 2005, which had $220 billion in damage (mostly due to $125 billion in damage from Hurricane Katrina.) Unlike 2005, this year's losses have been headlined by two huge earthquakes--the March 11 quake in Japan ($210 billion) and the February 22 quake in New Zealand ($20 billion.) But with the Northern Hemisphere's hurricane season just beginning, this year's record losses may see a significant boost from hurricanes.
Figure 1. Stunned survivors survey the destruction left by the EF-4 Tuscaloosa-Birmingham tornado of April. With a price tag estimated at $2 billion, this was the single most expensive tornado of all-time. The record stood only three weeks, being surpassed by the $3 billion in damage from the Joplin Missouri, tornado. The two tornado outbreaks that spawned these tornadoes rank as the globe's 3rd and 5th most destructive natural disasters so far this year. Image from an anonmous posting to Twitter.
Climate change and damage from weather-related disasters
In an interview with MSNBC, Peter Hoppe, who runs Munich Re's Geo Risks Research/Corporate Climate Center, said that while the damage trend for earthquakes, tsunamis and volcanic eruptions is fairly stable, damage from severe weather events is on the upswing, even after factoring in increases in population and wealth. He cited natural events such as La Niña and El Niño as factors in some of the damaging weather events, but added that warming temperatures appear to be adding a layer "on top" of that natural variability. In particular, he noted that the floods this January in Australia--that nation's most expensive natural disaster of all time--occurred when ocean temperatures off the coast were at record warm levels. That meant "more evaporation and higher potential for these extreme downpours", and "it can only be explained by global warming."
Figure 2. The five most expensive natural disasters of 2011, as estimated by Munich Re.
However, the there is a lot of controversy on whether economic losses due to weather-related disasters is increasing due to climate change. A 2010 paper in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society by Netherlands researcher Laurens Bouwer titled, "Have disaster losses increased due to anthropogenic climate change?", looked at 22 disaster loss studies in various parts of the world. All of the studies showed an increase in damages from weather-related disasters in recent decades. The big question is, how much of this increase in damage was due to increases in population, and the fact people are getting wealthier, and thus have more stuff to get damaged? Fourteen of the 22 studies concluded that there were no trends in damage after correcting for increases in wealth and population, while eight of the studies did find upward trends even after such corrections. In all 22 studies, increases in wealth and population were the "most important drivers for growing disaster losses."
Bouwer's review of these 22 disaster loss studies was critiqued this year by Neville Nicholls of the School of Geography and Environmental Science of Montash University, Australia. His analysis, published in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, notes that Bouwer's study of damage losses did not include the impact of improvements in building codes and weather forecasting. We can expect both factors to have significantly reduced damages due to storms in recent years. Nicholls concludes, "The absence of an upward trend in normalized losses may be due to a balance between reduced vulnerability (from improved weather forecasting and building techniques) and increased frequency or intensity of weather hazards." In his reply to Nicholls' comments, Bouwer states that Nicholls "provides no support that these factors have actually contributed to a substantial reduction in losses over the period of the last decades."
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Thank you
Anytime,,I was browsing for a entry and came cross that.
Those abortions are not necessarily population control, but rather lifestyle and choice issues.
If they were not legal then we night have population control issues.
Yes, they dropped it. I am still looking to see if any other models have picked it up. These waves usually fizzle this time of year though.
Nice point! If we destroy most of the planet, abortions will go down. Never thought of it that way before.
UKM is showing strong wave near antilles
72hour
screen grab from ISS TV image of Ma-On
Link
Link
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...CONCERN THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG
TERM CONTINUES TO BE WHAT WILL HAPPEN WITH A STALLED FRONT SOUTH
OF THE AREA AND AN ASSOCIATED TROPICAL WAVE PROGGED TO DEVELOP
ALONG IT. FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW THE LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN
HINTING THAT A COLD FRONT WILL GET HUNG UP ACROSS SC/GA THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH CLIMO WOULD FAVOR THE FRONT NOT MAKING
IT THAT FAR SOUTH...CANNOT IGNORE THE CONTINUITY OF THE GUIDANCE.
THIS IS IMPORTANT BECAUSE LOCATIONS NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY GET
INTO A MUCH DRIER REGIME AS RIDGING MOVES DOWN THE EAST COAST.
PWATS THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS THE ILM CWA HOVER AT LESS THAN 1.5
INCHES WHICH IS BELOW THE 50TH PERCENTILE FOR MOISTURE IN JULY.
THIS WOULD LEAD TO A DRY FORECAST...IF THE GUIDANCE WAS PERFECT.
HOWEVER...TROPICAL WAVE/TROUGH STILL PROGGED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
RESIDUAL BOUNDARY AND MOVE NE OFF THE COAST MAY ADVECT MORE
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA SO WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POP ACROSS SOUTHERN
AND COASTAL ZONES...AND THERE COULD BE A VERY SHARP N/S PRECIP
GRADIENT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER FRONT WILL TRY TO WORK
DOWN THROUGH THE CAROLINAS BY THE TAIL END OF THE EXTENDED...BUT
RENEWED UPPER RIDGING MAY KEEP THIS DEFLECTED TO THE NORTH.
That sounds like alot in such a small area
You have to think of models like this...For everyday's forecast to pan out something has to happen or not happen such as a cold front dropping down etc. So you have a 50/50 chance everyday with 2 possible outcomes...So everyday that goes by your multiply by the number of outcomes. So technically in a 2 day forecast that exact setup has a 1/4 or 25 percent chance of happening. Now in 10 days which is considered long range you have a to raise 2 to the 10th power which is 1024 with one possible outcome on that table theres a 0.09 or 9 percent chance of that certain income possibly happening and thats being conserative i'm sure there are many other things in the models input that are happening my chance
So are yours Englishes.
Me either, StA, maybe tomorrow :)
HAS? Like if its not something terrible will occur?
no...."HAS" as in I've never been so miserably hot in my life...
Poor guy, idk how it is now but up here in Va its 75 with a north breeze, b-e-a-utiful.
here it feels like the inside of a Charleston rice steamer
Temperature difference between SSTs near Cape Verde and the Gulf of Guinea (the more positive, the more conducive the SSTs and environment are for an active CV season)
Indian Ocean Dipole Index (the more positive, the more favorable conditions are for AEW as there is more moisture and upward motion in the East Africa/West Indian region)
That's awesome!
That cold front didnt push much farther south i guess, sorry for hogging it all.
You can see in the tables below our average high temperature since June 1st ranks #1 on the all-time list at 100.3 degrees. Our average daily temperature during this period also ranks #1 at 87.5 degrees. For climate purposes, summer includes the months of June, July and August.
The last time a summer began this hot was two years ago when 2009 became Austin’s hottest in history. You’ll recall Austin hit 100 degrees or hotter 68 times that summer, just one shy of the all-time record.
By the end of the day Thursday, Austin will have recorded highs of 100 or above 31 times this summer. On the same date in 2009, temperatures had reached triple digits 28 times.
Austin Extremes Highest Average Average Temperature degrees F Days: 6/1 - 7/12 Length of period: 42 days Years: 1850-2011 Rank Value Ending Date 1 87.5 7/12/2011 2 87.4 7/12/2009 3 86.7 7/12/2008 4 86.6 7/12/1998 5 86.1 7/12/1925
Austin
Extremes Highest Average Maximum Temperature degrees F Days: 6/1 - 7/12 Length of period: 42 days Years: 1850-2011 Rank Value Ending Date 1 100.3 7/12/2011 2 99.9 7/12/2009 3 99.4 7/12/1925 4 98.9 7/12/2008 5 98.7 7/12/1923 Ending Date is the last day of the 42-day period. Only periods with no missing data were evaluated. This station's record may include data from more than one, possibly incompatible, locations. It reflects the longest available record for the Austin Area.
(Data in table above from Bob Rose and National Weather Service
- Photo from NOAA)
Definite spin on the last few frames. Looks surprisingly good.
The USO base is going on Vacation seems by that graph
I know Boho, wish that.. ridge/cap/high....would get the heck outta Dodge...
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