Globe has 7th warmest June on record; Typhoon Ma-on a threat to Japan
June 2011 was the globe's 7th warmest June on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated June the 8th warmest on record. June 2011 global land temperatures were the 4th warmest on record, and ocean temperatures were the 10th warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were well above average, the 5th or 3rd warmest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). Ocean temperatures in the Atlantic Main Development Region for hurricanes, from the coast of Central America to the coast of Africa between 10°N and 20°N, were 0.9°C above average, the 5th warmest such temperatures in the past 160 years. The record was set in 2010, with a temperature of 1.3°C above average.
Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average in June 2011. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).
Record cold temperatures in the stratosphere
Global temperatures in the lower stratosphere, where the bulk of Earth's protective ozone layer lies, were at their coldest levels on record during June, according to both the University of Alabama and RSS, Inc. This is the second consecutive month of record cold in the stratosphere. Global warming theory predicts that in order to counter-balance the large amount of warming that occurs in the lower atmosphere near the surface when heat-trapping gases such as carbon dioxide are released into the air, the stratosphere must cool. Thus, a record cold stratosphere is consistent with global warming. However, the majority of the stratospheric cooling that has occurred since the 1990s is probably due to destruction of ozone by chlorine-containing gases like CFCs. Ozone strongly absorbs solar energy, warming the air around it, so if there is less ozone around, there will be less absorption of solar energy and a thus a cooler stratosphere.
Earlier this year, the World Meteorological Organization announced that depletion of the ozone layer—the shield that protects life on Earth from harmful levels of ultraviolet rays—reached an unprecedented level over the Arctic this spring because of the continuing presence of ozone-depleting substances in the atmosphere, and a very cold winter in the stratosphere. The Arctic ozone declined 40% between December and March.
U.S. heat wave to last at least another week
An unusually intense, widespread, and long-lasting heat wave over the majority of the U.S. continues to set numerous daily record highs. The latest long-range forecasts from the GFS and ECMWF models predict that the ridge of high pressure entrenched over the country responsible for the heat wave will move little over the coming week, and the heat wave should continue for all but the Pacific Northwest through July 23. The GFS model does show that the ridge will break down some during the period 10 - 16 days from now, but such long range forecasts have low skill, and the heat wave could easily remain entrenched over the country through the rest of July. I'll present a more detailed look at the heat wave next week.
Figure 2. Typhoon Ma-on at 04:15 UTC July 15, 2011, over the West Pacific Ocean. The small swirl at lower left is Tropical Depression Tokage. Image credit: NASA.
Typhoon Ma-on headed towards Japan
Powerful Category 4 Typhoon Ma-on is headed westward over the West Pacific Ocean, but is expected to encounter a trough of low pressure this weekend that will recurve the storm to the north and northeast, bringing it very close to the coast of Japan early next week. With water temperatures along the path of the typhoon ranging from 28 - 30°C, and wind shear expected to remain in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, Ma-on has the potential to hit Japan as a major Category 3 storm.
The Atlantic is quiet
None of the reliable models predict tropical cyclone development through July 21.
I'll have a new post by Monday at the latest.
Jeff Masters and Angela Fritz
Reader Comments
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Very occasionally it gets above 90. But summers are very varied, here. We're influenced a lot by the jet stream.
What we don't get are long, settled periods of high pressure. Two weeks of that at most, usually (if we're lucky).
Those GOM SST are downright scary. Anyone else remember Hurricane Anita back in '77? (I was at sea for that one; eye formed right over our sampling site.)
After that last invest that came through mostly dry..so close, I dare hope for rain. If it deepens some quick here, it's got a chance being in that area...
MODELS DIVERGE ON THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF THE WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE FLORIDA COAST. THE 00Z NAM SOLUTION IS QUITE
AGGRESSIVE AGAIN...DEVELOPING DUAL LOW SYSTEMS OFF THE EASTERN
FLORIDA COAST AND INSIDE THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE NAM THUS REMAINS
THE OUTLIER...AND THE FORECAST WILL LEAN TOWARD THE MORE SUBTLE
EVOLUTION DEPICTED IN THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS. THESE MODEL
RUNS KEEP THE SYSTEM AS AN OPEN WAVE THAT STEADILY TRACKS WEST
INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BEFORE DISSIPATING. WITH THE WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE REMAINING TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST...WILL CONFINE
CHANCE POPS RIGHT ALONG THE ALTAMAHA RIVER AND KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER.
`````````````````````````````````
The NAM is the only model to show a low forming at all. GFS, ECMWF: FAIL on this one.
Do you really have nothing better to do but cause trouble on the blog?
a)10-20%
b)20-40%
c)40-60%
d)>60%
I'd go with B or C.
I think someone posted about the NAM not being a reliable model the day before yesterday..looks like that will have to change since its the only one seeing the 98L invest
ANALYZED FROM 14N53W TO 8N56W MOVING W NEAR 15-20 KT. WAVE IS
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. ''
This looks to be now pulling together on the satellite loop.....could be a system in a few days.
Its July 16th and we have already had 1 named storm
you do realize in a "average" season our 2nd storm does not form until August 1st right? 3rd on average forms on August 13th
Get back to me if we are still looking for Bret in a month and even then a neutral set up tends to have an active end of the season and slow beginning
The NAM is good at showing moisture in and around the US; which at times can end up being a tropical system, but the NAM is not a tropical model
(wanders off sadly to sleep under the sofa)
It didn't used to be like that way back in 06-08. There used to be VERY detailed analysis on all sorts of disturbances.
I live in the Caribbean and it has been very dry with limited thunderstorm activity and the ones that form are weak. With what I see in the Atlantic and what the models show I say that my post is in line with what the models show. I am not saying we will not get any storms but by no means anywhere near what they were forcasting...I think the forcasters are in business with the insurance companies they are always saying above average season or near average. If ten storms spin up and go to Iceland that hardly has any impact on this side of the pond.
If you don't like the blog, don't read it. It's still your choice.
20% seems like a good #, not sure why that could be?
Got a newsflash for you, we have had above average seasons every year they have said so and in this active cycle we have only seen 3 average to below average seasons (1997, 2006 and 2009).
There is no conspiracy
oh and before you say yea they come up with the predictions so they name storms to fit them; that is a load of crap too.
That may be a loooooooong sleep. HPC keeps the low in your general area for a week.
2004? Try just last year, we even had a June system right when 2010 did as well. As the upward MJO pulse continues to be in our basin I expect we will be seeing Bret before too long, whether that will be from 98L or from other system.
Oh stop being pessimistic aquak, you'll get it!
Dr. Masters will probably fix this somehow, I've already message him. But, it upsets me to know that someone could have so little to do with their life they must go to extreme measures to try and ruin the lives of others.
Therefore, I am sorry to inform you and the rest, but I will likely be leaving the blog in the near future. There's absolutely no reason to stay on a site and continue to be abused by some person who has nothing better to do, and not to mention, I've wasted a little too much time on the blogs than I would've liked.
I may post from time to time if things make a dramatic improvement on the blog, but that doesn't appear likely.
Mojo left
This sounds way too Deja Vu to me. Did I step in Doc. Brown's time machine and go back exactly one year?
Thank you for the correction as I hadn't checked the latest MJO charts. But now that we're in the latter part of July, MJO doesn't matter as much though it does help.
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