Globe has 7th warmest June on record; Typhoon Ma-on a threat to Japan

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:13 PM GMT on July 15, 2011

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June 2011 was the globe's 7th warmest June on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated June the 8th warmest on record. June 2011 global land temperatures were the 4th warmest on record, and ocean temperatures were the 10th warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were well above average, the 5th or 3rd warmest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). Ocean temperatures in the Atlantic Main Development Region for hurricanes, from the coast of Central America to the coast of Africa between 10°N and 20°N, were 0.9°C above average, the 5th warmest such temperatures in the past 160 years. The record was set in 2010, with a temperature of 1.3°C above average.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average in June 2011. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

Record cold temperatures in the stratosphere
Global temperatures in the lower stratosphere, where the bulk of Earth's protective ozone layer lies, were at their coldest levels on record during June, according to both the University of Alabama and RSS, Inc. This is the second consecutive month of record cold in the stratosphere. Global warming theory predicts that in order to counter-balance the large amount of warming that occurs in the lower atmosphere near the surface when heat-trapping gases such as carbon dioxide are released into the air, the stratosphere must cool. Thus, a record cold stratosphere is consistent with global warming. However, the majority of the stratospheric cooling that has occurred since the 1990s is probably due to destruction of ozone by chlorine-containing gases like CFCs. Ozone strongly absorbs solar energy, warming the air around it, so if there is less ozone around, there will be less absorption of solar energy and a thus a cooler stratosphere.

Earlier this year, the World Meteorological Organization announced that depletion of the ozone layer—the shield that protects life on Earth from harmful levels of ultraviolet rays—reached an unprecedented level over the Arctic this spring because of the continuing presence of ozone-depleting substances in the atmosphere, and a very cold winter in the stratosphere. The Arctic ozone declined 40% between December and March.

U.S. heat wave to last at least another week
An unusually intense, widespread, and long-lasting heat wave over the majority of the U.S. continues to set numerous daily record highs. The latest long-range forecasts from the GFS and ECMWF models predict that the ridge of high pressure entrenched over the country responsible for the heat wave will move little over the coming week, and the heat wave should continue for all but the Pacific Northwest through July 23. The GFS model does show that the ridge will break down some during the period 10 - 16 days from now, but such long range forecasts have low skill, and the heat wave could easily remain entrenched over the country through the rest of July. I'll present a more detailed look at the heat wave next week.


Figure 2. Typhoon Ma-on at 04:15 UTC July 15, 2011, over the West Pacific Ocean. The small swirl at lower left is Tropical Depression Tokage. Image credit: NASA.

Typhoon Ma-on headed towards Japan
Powerful Category 4 Typhoon Ma-on is headed westward over the West Pacific Ocean, but is expected to encounter a trough of low pressure this weekend that will recurve the storm to the north and northeast, bringing it very close to the coast of Japan early next week. With water temperatures along the path of the typhoon ranging from 28 - 30°C, and wind shear expected to remain in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, Ma-on has the potential to hit Japan as a major Category 3 storm.

The Atlantic is quiet
None of the reliable models predict tropical cyclone development through July 21.

I'll have a new post by Monday at the latest.

Jeff Masters and Angela Fritz

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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Pretty unlikely, at least in my view.


Visible/Enhanced IR Satellite images show a cluster of thunderstorms forming on the Low's eastern side. Radar also shows these thunderstorms "spiraling" around the south and east side of the low

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Typhoon Ma-on



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125628
hi dak- I think it's the same product, y'know? there's no way a troll would LIKE rediwhip.

Conditions three miles inland from JaxBeach: high clouds, air is dead still, thick humid at 82%, temp at 83º.

Oh and did I mention it's NOT raining, and has NOT rained in 24 hours?
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RGB




IR

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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Pretty unlikely, at least in my view.


Satellite appearance and vorticity have improved from the 20% designation. I look for the odds to increase slightly to 30%, medium chance.
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Anybody want to talk about Ma-on?
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These are also "high" storm clouds evident by the bright white tops on the IR enhanced

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-ir4.h tml

and on Visible

Link
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906. Skyepony (Mod)
98L
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Quoting BDAwx:
The first named storm forms on average (from 1998-2010) on June 23rd; the second forms July 24th; The first hurricane forms August 5th; and the second hurricane forms August 20th. From a table I whipped up using NHC archival data.




nice work, and that is for above average season; so I think your work proves a big point
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Quoting wolftribe2009:
Thunderstorms increasing near the center of SE low off Florida. This leads me to believe that we might see 30% or greater at the next NOAA update.


Pretty unlikely, at least in my view.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23012
Quoting wolftribe2009:
Thunderstorms increasing near the center of SE low off Florida. This leads me to believe that we might see 30% or greater at the next NOAA update.



I think so.
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Water dog - Are you going to tease us with the redi whip again?
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Thunderstorms increasing near the center of SE low off Florida. This leads me to believe that we might see 30% or greater at the next NOAA update.
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900. BDAwx
The first named storm forms on average (from 1998-2010) on June 23rd; the second forms July 24th; The first hurricane forms August 5th; and the second hurricane forms August 20th. From a table I whipped up using NHC archival data.


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Quoting wolftribe2009:


Let me state this.
Look at
2010: 15 storms after July 31
1995: 14 storms after July 31
1999: 11 storms after July 31

and

2004: 15 Storms after July 31 (We all remember this year)


You know, it can still slide the other way after an inactive early season.
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Quoting Patrap:



.."No mo speed Im almost there, gotta keep cool, I gotta take care"..




98L looking good on radar.
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An Interesting Article on Hurricane Emily of 2005 on Accuweather and how Emily was the first and ONLY CAT 5 hurricane to form BEFORE August 1

Link
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Quoting txjac:


Okay, that was just hurtful ...lol
Happy for you though

Ouch, forgot that your hurting for rain more that we are. I'm more hurting because I enjoy grilling out on Saturdays and now I can't. :)
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ok so I wake up from the pup-nap. What's new?

-Dr Knabb sneaks in a facebook forecast
-Fresca is a beverage
- a can of RediWhip---err, I mean troll spray- is being passed aorund
- Gro came back but looks like he's wandered off again
- my barometer went up and it's STILL NOT GONNA RAIN

(grabs Blanket'o'Pessimism and sits sullenly)


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<
What's the difference between 1992 and 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season?

1992 had very few storms. 2010 had a lot of storms.

1992 = Hurricane Andrew = high impact = memorable
2010 = no impact = won't be remembered

Impact means everything. Models are showing lowering of pressures across the Gulf/Caribbean. August will be very interesting. Don't let your guard down. It's been way too long since a hurricane has impacted the United States. Our time is coming.>>


True. Very true.
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.."No mo speed Im almost there, gotta keep cool, I gotta take care"..

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Quoting Grothar:


Is there a Google translation for this? Is it going to rain, or not?
yes
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The latest computer model forecast for projected path posted by Jeff Masters has the low moving across Florida. Only two others take it north or out to sea.

Unfortunately I don't see the GFS on there. The GFS predicted this low to form a week ago. That is the one I would be watching. I have this funny feeling that it will be moving into the GOM.
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888. txjac
Quoting PakaSurvivor:
Update from Crestview (Panhandle) FL:
Approaching 4" of rain since the AM.
Saturday Night grill out canceled.
Grass growing will have to mow (3rd time this season) and the weeds appreciate the rain also.


Okay, that was just hurtful ...lol
Happy for you though
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Quoting CanesfanatUT:


Last year only had 1 named storm as of now...


Let me state this.
Look at
2010: 15 storms after July 31
1995: 14 storms after July 31
1999: 11 storms after July 31

and

2004: 15 Storms after July 31 (We all remember this year)
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Update from Crestview (Panhandle) FL:
Approaching 4" of rain since the AM.
Saturday Night grill out canceled.
Grass growing will have to mow (3rd time this season) and the weeds appreciate the rain also.
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Quoting wolftribe2009:


I think that is the note of a skeptic. Everyone seems to think that nothing will happen this month. We have to remember that 2004 activity came after July 30th and I do recall that last year's produced 15 storms after July 31st

Just because there is nothing going on right now doesn't mean that trouble isn't around the corner.


"Well Said"

Taco :o)
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Straight from his facebook page.
I'm not expecting significant development anywhere in the Atlantic basin for the next few days, and that includes the front extending east from the southeast U.S. coast, and the three tropical waves over the tropical Atlantic. If you're looking for new tropical cyclone development, look south of Mexico over the east Pacific during the next few days.


I think that is the note of a skeptic. Everyone seems to think that nothing will happen this month. We have to remember that 2004 activity came after July 30th and I do recall that last year's produced 15 storms after July 31st

Just because there is nothing going on right now doesn't mean that trouble isn't around the corner.
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Latest ECMWF shows development from 98L once it moves away from Florida.
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You would think by this map that the Low at the GOM is more potent than the one off florida..

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Quoting clwstmchasr:


I would have to agree with him. 98L is looking pretty sick right now.


Give it time, we'll see what happens.
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Quoting drs2008:
Getting some steady rain in Biloxi.

Hey Everybody,
We have been getting "Rain" and I mean "A Good Rain" all day....

"This is Very Needed Rain" for sure....

Taco :o)
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Quoting highndry1:


Yeah, but you'd think we'd have had 2-3 by now. This season reminds me of 2006 when we were supposed to have all those hurricanes, or last year when they billed it as being bigger than '05 and we got a few but certainly nothing like '05 when every patch of clouds turned into a cat.5


It is important to note that the peak activity occurs in August/September. This year is not supposed to be extremely active. In fact, everyone is saying less storms, but a greater chance for impact.

What's the difference between 1992 and 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season?

1992 had very few storms. 2010 had a lot of storms.

1992 = Hurricane Andrew = high impact = memorable
2010 = no impact = won't be remembered

Impact means everything. Models are showing lowering of pressures across the Gulf/Caribbean. August will be very interesting. Don't let your guard down. It's been way too long since a hurricane has impacted the United States. Our time is coming.
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Complete Update

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI





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So many maps and so many diffirent outcomes for 98l its getting confusing.
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Quoting highndry1:


Yeah, but you'd think we'd have had 2-3 by now. This season reminds me of 2006 when we were supposed to have all those hurricanes, or last year when they billed it as being bigger than '05 and we got a few but certainly nothing like '05 when every patch of clouds turned into a cat.5


Last year only had 1 named storm as of now...
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Yeah, but you'd think we'd have had 2-3 by now. This season reminds me of 2006 when we were supposed to have all those hurricanes, or last year when they billed it as being bigger than '05 and we got a few but certainly nothing like '05 when every patch of clouds turned into a cat.5
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There's a tiny bit of cyclonic curvature at the surface now nearby that new cluster of thunderstorms SE of Jacksonville.

Invest 98L high-res visible floater loop
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Getting some steady rain in Biloxi.
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Quoting Patrap:
And who is POPS?

me tinks dey messing with yas Gro.


: )


Better than Gramps.
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Quoting jasonweatherman2011:
stop lying Dr. Rick Knabbs was not on today!!


Straight from his facebook page.
I'm not expecting significant development anywhere in the Atlantic basin for the next few days, and that includes the front extending east from the southeast U.S. coast, and the three tropical waves over the tropical Atlantic. If you're looking for new tropical cyclone development, look south of Mexico over the east Pacific during the next few days.
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Quoting highndry1:
for an above-average year, where are all the hurricanes and storms? Looks like up here in Colorado we've been getting all the weather! Tropics are quiet as church, meanwhile we're getting golfball-sized hail around here practically every day!


The meat of the season begins in August.
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Quoting highndry1:
for an above-average year, where are all the hurricanes and storms? Looks like up here in Colorado we've been getting all the weather! Tropics are quiet as church, meanwhile we're getting golfball-sized hail around here practically every day!


careful, you asks where all the canes are they'll crop up and tell us!
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I'm almost embarrassed to post this.

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.