Globe has 7th warmest June on record; Typhoon Ma-on a threat to Japan
June 2011 was the globe's 7th warmest June on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated June the 8th warmest on record. June 2011 global land temperatures were the 4th warmest on record, and ocean temperatures were the 10th warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were well above average, the 5th or 3rd warmest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). Ocean temperatures in the Atlantic Main Development Region for hurricanes, from the coast of Central America to the coast of Africa between 10°N and 20°N, were 0.9°C above average, the 5th warmest such temperatures in the past 160 years. The record was set in 2010, with a temperature of 1.3°C above average.
Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average in June 2011. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).
Record cold temperatures in the stratosphere
Global temperatures in the lower stratosphere, where the bulk of Earth's protective ozone layer lies, were at their coldest levels on record during June, according to both the University of Alabama and RSS, Inc. This is the second consecutive month of record cold in the stratosphere. Global warming theory predicts that in order to counter-balance the large amount of warming that occurs in the lower atmosphere near the surface when heat-trapping gases such as carbon dioxide are released into the air, the stratosphere must cool. Thus, a record cold stratosphere is consistent with global warming. However, the majority of the stratospheric cooling that has occurred since the 1990s is probably due to destruction of ozone by chlorine-containing gases like CFCs. Ozone strongly absorbs solar energy, warming the air around it, so if there is less ozone around, there will be less absorption of solar energy and a thus a cooler stratosphere.
Earlier this year, the World Meteorological Organization announced that depletion of the ozone layer—the shield that protects life on Earth from harmful levels of ultraviolet rays—reached an unprecedented level over the Arctic this spring because of the continuing presence of ozone-depleting substances in the atmosphere, and a very cold winter in the stratosphere. The Arctic ozone declined 40% between December and March.
U.S. heat wave to last at least another week
An unusually intense, widespread, and long-lasting heat wave over the majority of the U.S. continues to set numerous daily record highs. The latest long-range forecasts from the GFS and ECMWF models predict that the ridge of high pressure entrenched over the country responsible for the heat wave will move little over the coming week, and the heat wave should continue for all but the Pacific Northwest through July 23. The GFS model does show that the ridge will break down some during the period 10 - 16 days from now, but such long range forecasts have low skill, and the heat wave could easily remain entrenched over the country through the rest of July. I'll present a more detailed look at the heat wave next week.
Figure 2. Typhoon Ma-on at 04:15 UTC July 15, 2011, over the West Pacific Ocean. The small swirl at lower left is Tropical Depression Tokage. Image credit: NASA.
Typhoon Ma-on headed towards Japan
Powerful Category 4 Typhoon Ma-on is headed westward over the West Pacific Ocean, but is expected to encounter a trough of low pressure this weekend that will recurve the storm to the north and northeast, bringing it very close to the coast of Japan early next week. With water temperatures along the path of the typhoon ranging from 28 - 30°C, and wind shear expected to remain in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, Ma-on has the potential to hit Japan as a major Category 3 storm.
The Atlantic is quiet
None of the reliable models predict tropical cyclone development through July 21.
I'll have a new post by Monday at the latest.
Jeff Masters and Angela Fritz
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 — Blog Index
Unless something happens to make 98L turn towards the North or east then I would say yes GOM Bound
Taco :o)
We are getting there.
coool you get any thing?
Yeah, pretty much.
Station 41010
NDBC
Location: 28.906N 78.471W
Conditions as of:
Sun, 17 Jul 2011 02:50:00 UTC
Winds: ESE (120°) at 11.7 kt gusting to 13.6 ktSignificant Wave Height: 4.3 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 8 sec
Atmospheric Pressure: 30.01 in and rising
Air Temperature: 76.1 F
Water Temperature: 83.5 F
The prior wind reading an hour ago:
Winds: SSE (160°) at 5.8 kt gusting to 7.8 kt
dran
yes vary
Water temperatures are always warm in the Gulf. It isn't like this year's Gulf SSTs are exceptional.
wind shear is about 5kt all so where 98L is right now it now has about 10kt of wind shear and droping
If my memory isn't failing me, it's the largest blob so far.
and it will go poof has soon has it its water
Well, the GFS is painting an upper low there by Sunday/Monday, but keeps shear along the south side of it relatively low. Since the southern flank of cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere produce westerly shear, a phenomenon quite destructive to tropical disturbances/storms, this is a most alarming possibility.
Let me put it this way: 98L will likely be moving west-northwest to west if it enters the Gulf. Ordinarily, westerly shear would be even more destructive than normal for a westbound system, because it would be moving right into the shear. The physics involved are similar to two automobiles crashing into one another as they both move into the general direction of one another.
However, since shear is supposed to be low along the south side of said upper low, this will not happen, and thus 98L will have opportunity to strengthen some. Probably not to hurricane intensity, because of possible interaction with that low.
yeah.
Still it looks impressive.
i do not no what you this said lol
Keep in mind alot of those extreme warm temps in the gulf right now are just at the oceans surface.
I disagree, as we head into peak heating, it is harder to maintain positive anomalies as there is less variance ...
The anomalies on the northern Gulf coast are, in my opinion, quite impressive.
Yes, it looks like dry air is trying to move into the western portions of the storm, and making it's way into the center. That's certainly good news, because Japan doesn't need a major typhoon to make landfall in their area.
So far, shear has been more or less below normal.
Exactly. A lot of people are going "OMG LOOK AT THOSE SSTS", when the extreme readings (30C+) are found along the shallow coastal shelf waters, which are always warm, but lack depth.
"It should be noted that based on the Melbourne, FL radar beam's elevation angle (0.5 degrees) and the radar tower's distance from 98L's center (~670000 feet), trigonometry says that the beam's height is about 5850 feet above the ground over 98L's center."
There's a problem with this calculation: the earth is not flat. If the elevation of the radar beam were zero - perfectly level, or tangent to the earth's surface - then that beam would be about 10700 feet above the earth by the time it reached a distance of 670000 feet. Add on the the 0.5 degree elevation, and the actual elevation should be between 16000 and 17000 feet - nearly three times the previous calculation.
Assuming we are talking about distances that are much smaller than the radius of the earth, a good approximation would be this. Let d be the range (horizontal distance), h be the altitude, and R be the radius of the earth. Then h is approximately d^2/(2R).
(And don't forget to convert units. If you're working in feet, then R is a little over 2 x 10^7 feet.)
We hear this every year at this time, though. SSTs will respond to heat, especially when there is no wind to cause evaporative cooling, which has mostly been the case thus far.
True, as we head into peak season, positive anomalies become less likely. But even if the waters are warm, that doesn't mean the subsurface is.
They surely do not. Earthquakes, Tsunami, Nuclear Disaster...
Nah, remember the upper low I mentioned. 98L could possibly interact with that, similar to how TD5 did last year, which would lead to dry air ingestion.
Considering how small 98L is it may not survive crossing flat Florida or may get seriously disrupted.
98L's future seems uncertain. xD
You are the individual that used the term "SST". I agree that TCHP isnt extraordinarily high, but the SSTs, which you said werent very high, are. I wasnt arguing over the usefulness of that fact to a forecast, just that I disagreed with the statement.
One thing is for sure, that blob will probably eat some of that SAL.
They certainly could, all other parameters being equal.
Viewing: 1451 - 1501
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 — Blog Index