Tropical Depression Two forms from Invest 98L
Tropical Depression Two (TD2) formed from Invest 98L this afternoon. Hurricane Hunters flew into the suspect area and found a surface circulation north of the Bahamas, with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph. They also determined the system had become warm core—a characteristic that must be present in order to declare a tropical cyclone. Satellite imagery continues to show the system is becoming more organized with a stronger circulation. Wind shear is forecast to remain favorable for the system until Tuesday or Wednesday when higher shear will slide in from the north. Sea surface temperatures are warm enough to sustain a tropical storm.
Figure 1. Satellite imagery of Tropical Depression Two in the Atlantic, east of Florida. This graphic will update to the current satellite imagery.
Figure 2. Official 5-day forecast for Tropical Depression Two. This graphic will remain current.
Forecast for TD2
The models are coming into better agreement as TD2 has become more organized. In terms of dynamical forecast models, the HWRF and GFS both forecast TD2 to max out just above tropical storm strenth. HWRF intensifies TD2 to around 47 mph in the next 24 hours, whereas GFS is a bit slower to bring the system up to tropical storm status. Two statistical models, the DSHP (SHIPS model that includes land interaction) and the LGEM (Logistical Growth Equation Model) both intensify TD2 to a moderate tropical storm over the next 2-3 days.
There tends to be a lot of uncertainty involved with tropical cyclones that form under these circumstances, but our forecast remains in line with the National Hurricane Center and the reliable forecast models. TD2 will move slowly to the northeast in weak steering currents over the next few days before eventually becoming an extratropical storm. There is minimal chance that this system will cross over Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. Timing and path depend heavily on how intense the cyclone gets, as Jeff mentioned in his blog earlier today. A weaker storm will tend to stay south, whereas a stronger storm will grow taller in the atmosphere and winds at higher levels will influence it and steer it northeast.
None of the reliable models predict tropical cyclone development over the remainder of the Atlantic through July 23.
Angela
Reader Comments
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Now I am trying to figure out how the current activity constitutes epic fail on the part of forecasters. I was just thinking this morning that this may be the last major gasp for EPac for a while, if the projected forecast for the ATL verifies. The Twaves that have been sparking EPac development just won't make it to the EPac the same way.
With the EPac, four storms from May to July do not guarantee an above average season...
Which scientists and for which year?
If 2011, everybody quote-worthy said it'd probably be slightly-above-normal to above-normal. And the fringers are best ignored as the type who're panicking at the "coming IceAge".
I'd say that Wiki failed to toss out a bad posting, and should permanently toss out whoever posted it.
Looks like Rita and I were wrong and Levi and the models are right, Bret is going out to sea.
I still think Bret will make a run for Cat1, maybe even Cat2 if it can beat back the dry air.
I'm saying that the EPAC season can become active, not going to a 2010 EPAC season.
Hey, it's 9 a.m. and I gotta run... will check in later as time permits.
Ya'll be good now...
Highway 90 at Gulfport,MS is now closed due to that line
These are the folks that preferred to wish-cast a pre-season monsoon low in the NW Caribbean (93L) over paying attention to a gorgeous annular Cat4 hurricane in the EPAC (Adrian).
Ah, the EPAC... Most of us think of the Atlantic when "the season" is mentioned without naming the storm basin.
Still think the quotation of the odds is wrong -- I think they were a bit higher -- but not enough wrong to give Wiki a fail.
Another relationship that has been noted in previous years but has been documented more thoroughly recently is the inverse relationship between Atlantic and eastern North Pacific tropical cyclone activity (Lander and Guard 1998, Elsner and Kara 1999, Klotzbach 2006, Wang and Lee 2009, Collins 2010, Wang and Lee 2010). When Atlantic activity is heightened, eastern North Pacific activity tends to be reduced and vice versa. Wang and Lee (2009) demonstrate an out-of-phase relationship between the two basins and the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index (Bell et al. 2000). They demonstrate that this relationship is likely due to the fact that same-signed upper-level wind anomalies act to increase vertical wind shear in one basin while reducing it in the other basin, due to the fact that climatological upper-level winds are westerly in the Atlantic, while they are easterly in the eastern North Pacific.
Link
Taz does not have him on ignore or he would not be seeing his post......secondly Jason's post is really not that extreme. He actually does a pretty good job and his post are really not far off basis......he wasnt wrong too many times last year when he keep saying fishstorm and most of them was......LOL
I've got about 1/3 of an inch so far from the disturbance to the northeast of Bret, and there is rain in the forecast until Friday. I see Bret has indeed strengthened a little from last night - interesting.
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON JUL 18 2011
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
1. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER OF A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 240 MILES SOUTH OF GUATEMALA. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE ALSO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 MPH.
Ok. For which basin was this applicable?
The Eastern Pacific... sorry I didn't add that part.
linky?
Not sure i see the good outflow on the West side you are seeing.........I see nearly just the opposite as dry air is hitting the west side very strong now.
I guess so
2011 PHS article on Wikipedia and this is the CPC outlook for EPAC
Blog update:
Tropical Tidbit for Monday, July 18th, with Video
You just jinxed us big time you butthead.......LOL........hey bro!
Updated and reflects the shear better .... Not 5 knots of shear like some have suggested.
Things that make you go Hmmmmm!
Still little to NO Convergence with Bret.........but look coming off the Africa Coast.........that looks really good........that area for sure needs to be watched.
The ECMWF and CMC both develop that wave in the future, 204-240 hours out.
CDO. Is. Collapsing.
A question for you and/or anyone else out there: With the dominant hot High over the Central US so strong and so long, do we have a realistic shot and this thing getting out of here before mid- or late fall? I kinda shuddered when you pointed out the compressing air it is shoving down toward Georgia and Florida. Last year was already really dry for us here in the Cape, and this year's been terribly dry. I'm not hoping for a nasty hurricane season, but I for one would sure like to see this drought pattern get broken.
Yep that is the one we better start watching......its my most concern now..........not Bret! Bret might have already peaked out.
Well as I have told everyone that asks about this, in similar years to 2011, that ridge usually is strong down over the south through July, but lifts a bit northward during August-October, allowing the height of the hurricane season to threaten the north gulf coast. This year has followed the analogs pretty closely so far. Whether it continues to do that, I can't really say, especially since this entire ENSO cycle has been strange so far over North America. The seasonal model forecasts all support above-average precipitation near the coast, so I would say there's a decent chance that a few people get soaked by a tropical cyclone this season.
ATCF (every 6hours)
06pmGMTto12amGMT : 27.7n78.2w-27.5n78.1w , 156.0degrees(~SouthSouthEast)
12amGMTto06amGMT : 27.5n78.1w-27.1n78.0w , 167.4degrees(~midway SSE&dueSouth)
06amGMTto12pmGMT : 27.1n78.0w-27.4n77.5w , 56.0degrees(~midwayEastNorthEast&NorthEast)
NHC (every 3hours)
09pmGMTto12amGMT : 27.5n78.2w-27.5n78.1w , 90degrees(dueEast)
12amGMTto03amGMT : 27.5n78.1w-27.5n78.0w , 90degrees(dueEast)
03pmGMTto06amGMT : 27.5n78.0w-27.1n78.0w , 180degrees(dueSouth)
06amGMTto09amGMT : 27.1n78.0w-27.2n77.7w , 69.5degrees(~EastNorthEast)
09amGMTto12pmGMT : 27.2n77.7w-27.4n77.5w , 41.7degrees(~NorthEast)
Copy&paste 27.7n78.2w-27.5n78.1w, 27.5n78.1w-27.1n78.0w, 27.1n78.0w-27.4n77.5w, pbi, fpo, 27.5n78.2w-27.5n78.1w, 27.5n78.1w-27.5n78.0w, 27.5n78.0w-27.1n78.0w, 27.1n78.0w-27.2n77.7w, 27.2n77.7w-27.4n77.5w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info
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