Tropical Depression Two forms from Invest 98L
Tropical Depression Two (TD2) formed from Invest 98L this afternoon. Hurricane Hunters flew into the suspect area and found a surface circulation north of the Bahamas, with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph. They also determined the system had become warm core—a characteristic that must be present in order to declare a tropical cyclone. Satellite imagery continues to show the system is becoming more organized with a stronger circulation. Wind shear is forecast to remain favorable for the system until Tuesday or Wednesday when higher shear will slide in from the north. Sea surface temperatures are warm enough to sustain a tropical storm.
Figure 1. Satellite imagery of Tropical Depression Two in the Atlantic, east of Florida. This graphic will update to the current satellite imagery.
Figure 2. Official 5-day forecast for Tropical Depression Two. This graphic will remain current.
Forecast for TD2
The models are coming into better agreement as TD2 has become more organized. In terms of dynamical forecast models, the HWRF and GFS both forecast TD2 to max out just above tropical storm strenth. HWRF intensifies TD2 to around 47 mph in the next 24 hours, whereas GFS is a bit slower to bring the system up to tropical storm status. Two statistical models, the DSHP (SHIPS model that includes land interaction) and the LGEM (Logistical Growth Equation Model) both intensify TD2 to a moderate tropical storm over the next 2-3 days.
There tends to be a lot of uncertainty involved with tropical cyclones that form under these circumstances, but our forecast remains in line with the National Hurricane Center and the reliable forecast models. TD2 will move slowly to the northeast in weak steering currents over the next few days before eventually becoming an extratropical storm. There is minimal chance that this system will cross over Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. Timing and path depend heavily on how intense the cyclone gets, as Jeff mentioned in his blog earlier today. A weaker storm will tend to stay south, whereas a stronger storm will grow taller in the atmosphere and winds at higher levels will influence it and steer it northeast.
None of the reliable models predict tropical cyclone development over the remainder of the Atlantic through July 23.
Angela
Reader Comments
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Bret looks quite ragged to me at the moment and embedded, again, in the frontal boundry it separated from yesterday so I am thinking it will continue to be swept out to the NE per the current NHC track....God Speed to You and Follow NHC as the Official source as you know........ :)
Any upwelling caused by that system will be transient at best. It takes a lot more than that to appreciably cool off SSTs.
I remember that Dude.....Ahh, the good old days on the Blog.... :)
Uh, you do realize that's JFV... right?
thats pretty close to NC..I find it funny that they are going with the ECWMF guidance when the HWRF and GFDL had this as a TS first?
I cannot second guess the call from NHC, as I am sure they had data this afternoon to call a tropical storm based on wind speeds, but looking at this rapid deterioration at the moment, I am thinking we just wasted a "name" on this one...........
It does look to be more ragged at the moment, could be shear or Dmin.
Thanks again.
P.S. If any of you use vessel tracking services, I am on the tug “East Coast” (not very imaginative is it?) with the barge “Penn 410”. I can also tell you, the majority of the mariners get there weather from this site. Thanks again.
It looks like Bret has picked up some moisture tap running in a band south of Miami that's providing extra oomph from both the Everglades warm waters and extending into the Gulf. I'd like to see Bret get away a bit further east before it gets pinched and starts doing leaup-de-leauxs.
And I say it stays a TS.
Good evening, Geoffrey. :)
I'm thinking, no.
It's very pleasant outside, tonight, but I don't see a westerly motion happening. It has been interesting, watching the wind shift and the clouds reacting to the low center spinning up.
Not at all. No westerly componet at all. Bret will not enter the GOM.
Me to hope we can get some more info like that this year.
coastaltugcaptain good to have you on and hope to hear from you again have a nice trip.
Coastal,
Stay safe out there and check frequently for updates.
Hi CaneVet...We might some good rains tomorrow, but that will be it.
Don't count Bret out just yet. He might head towards the Carolinas or Florida.
This is what I was saying too. I stated that I have been on this system's band wagon since last week but that the upgrade to a TS seemed to be a bit early to me. Now that doesn't mean that I didn't think that it would NOT become a TS but thought it would probably more likely be a bit later.
Yet this will all play into my June/July Forecast of 3-5 storms. One more for July and we will have the 3. I still am sticking to my forecasted 3 storms for this month. I think we might get them towards the end of the month.
Well said. Also, as Angela pointed out earlier, some of the ensemble members were showing development. It suggests that things had to come together just right for development to occur, and given the shear going on it is not clear that conditions are completely favorable for development even with a "B" name hung on it.
I have my eye on it. I wouldn't be surprised if it crosses near Miami. I think this because I believe we are working with a weaker system.
Thanks for your upgate you gave earlier Tug. I am going to start to monitor your vessel. Good to have you aboard. Be Safe
Oh, good evening, everyone!
I hope so, they'll be most welcome, for any of us in FL.
+1,000,000,000
scholar.google.com is your friend. Here is one paper:
Link
Most recent from NASA...
Type of ship: Tug
IMO Number: 8201090 Flag: United States of America
MMSI Number: 367185680 Length: 30.0m
Callsign: WBI4636 Beam: 10.0m
Link
I agree was just thinking that the blog has slowed up quite a bit once the models started looking more like an out to sea storm and now it's looking a little more on the ragged side.
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