U.S. heat wave blamed for 22 deaths; Bret and Cindy no threat
The dangerous U.S. heat wave of July 2011 will continue to bring another day of exceptionally humid heat to over 100 million Americans today, with 33 states plus the District of Columbia currently under heat advisories. The heat index--how hot the air feels when factoring in both the temperature and the humidity--exceeded 100° in twenty states in the Central and Eastern U.S. on Wednesday, peaking at 123° in Council Bluffs, Iowa. At least 22 deaths are being blamed on the heat in the Midwest. The extreme humidity that has accompanied this heat has made it a very dangerous one, since the body is much less able to cool itself when the humidity is high. The high humidities are due, in great part, to the record rains and flooding in the Midwest over the past few months that have saturated soils and left farmlands flooded. Accompanying the heat has been high levels of air pollution, which also contributes to mortality. Air pollution is expected exceed federal standards and reach code orange, "Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups", in at least 22 states today, according to the latest forecasts from EPA.
The extreme heat peaked in Chicago yesterday, where the temperature hit 100° at Midway Airport and the Chicago Lakefront station. Rockford, Illinois hit 100°, the first time in 22 years that city had seen 100° temperatures. Detroit is expected to hit 100° for the first time in sixteen years today, and I think I'm going to skip the Ann Arbor Art Fair! New York City and the mid-Atlantic states are expected to be near 100° on Friday. The forecast high of 103° in Washington D.C. for Friday is just 3° below the hottest temperature ever recorded in the city, 106°. The heat will continue in the mid-Atlantic states through Sunday, then ease on Monday when a cold front is expected to pass through. Wunderground's climate change blogger Dr. Ricky Rood has some good insights on the current heat wave in his latest post. A few notable highlights from this week:
Omaha, Nebraska has been above 80° for a four-day period beginning on July 17. This is the 2nd longest such stretch on record, next to the 8-day period that ended July 25, 1934. Multi-day periods when the low temperatures do not cool off below 75° are associated with high heat wave death rates.
Amarillo, Texas recorded its 26th day of 100° temperatures yesterday, tying the city's record for most 100° days in a year, last set in 1953. Record keeping in the city goes back to 1892.
Minneapolis, Minnesota, recorded its highest dew point ever, 82°, on Tuesday. The heat index hit a remarkable 118° in the city, which tied July 11, 1966 for the highest heat index on record in the city. Minnesota's all-time highest dew point temperature of 86° was tied on Sunday, in Madison. The previous record was in St. James and Pipestone in July of 2005.
The latest National Weather Service storm summary has a list of cities where the heat index exceeded 100° yesterday.
Figure 1. On Wednesday, heat advisories for this dangerous heat wave covered portions of 33 states plus the District of Columbia, an area with 141 million people--about half the population of the U.S.
Tropical Storm Bret no threat
Tropical Storm Bret continues to struggle with high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots, and high shear is expected to affect the storm the remainder of the week. The combination of high wind shear and dry air nearby should act to destroy Bret by Sunday, and the storm is not a threat to any land areas.
Tropical Storm Cindy forms
Tropical Storm Cindy formed yesterday 600 miles to the east of Bermuda. Cindy's formation was 24 days ahead of the usual formation date for the third named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, which is August 13. This year has the most early season activity since 2008, when Hurricane Dolly got named on July 20. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots, and is expected to remain moderate for several days. However, Cindy has moved over cool ocean waters of 25°C this morning, and this temperature is 1.5°C below the threshold of 26.5°C that tropical storms typically need in order to maintain their strength. With Cindy predicted to move over waters of just 21°C by Friday morning, the storm doesn't have long to live. Cindy is not a threat to any land areas.
An African wave worth watching
An African wave near 12N 50W, 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, is moving west to west-northwest at about 15 mph, and is generating a limited amount of heavy thunderstorms due to the presence of a large amount of dust and dry air from the Sahara. This wave will spread heavy rain showers and strong gusty winds to the northern Lesser Antilles beginning on Saturday. The wave has a modest degree of spin to it, and is under low wind shear, 5 - 10 knots. Once it finds a moister environment near the Bahama Islands early next week, it could develop. Of the latest 00Z and 06Z runs of the four reliable models for predicting formation of a tropical depression, only the NOGAPS model shows development of the wave. The NOGAPS predicts the wave could attain tropical depression status on Wednesday, just off the coast of South Carolina. The other models generally depict too much wind shear over the Bahamas for the wave to develop. The eventual track of the wave once it reaches the Bahamas early next week is uncertain; there will be a trough of low pressure located off the U.S. East Coast that will be capable of turning the wave to the north, along the East Coast. However, it is also quite possible that the wave would be too weak and to far south to feel the influence of this trough, and instead would enter the Gulf of Mexico.
Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Dora.
Hurricane Dora in the Eastern Pacific close to Category 5
Hurricane Dora in the Eastern Pacific put on an impressive burst of intensification over the past 24 hours, and is now a very impressive Category 4 storm with 155 mph winds, just 1 mph short of Category 5 status. Dora is expected to move parallel to the coast of Mexico, and should not cause any major trouble in that country. Dora is the second major hurricane in the East Pacific this year; Hurricane Adrian topped out as a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds in early June.
Think cold. Way cold!
Those of us sweltering in today's heat would do well to consider that on this date in 1983, Vostok, Antarctica shivered at -128°F--the coldest temperature ever measured on Earth. The low tonight in Vostok is expected to be a relatively balmy -80°F.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Dooms Day for Europe.What a catastrophe.
I *think* Dora's peak has come and gone.
She'll only be a cat5 if post-storm analysis warrants it.
NOAA SSD ADT nums down from a peak of 7.1 to 6.3, too: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/2011/adt/tex t/04E-list.txt
That guy is a nut job
Guy doesn't even know what he's talking about...if we see anything from the wave it will be out of the Caribbean around the Bahamas. He talks about the outflow of Dora, but you can't even really see it on the infrared there...I think he was referring to the CDO. And then the comment about Dora looking like it might be pulling in convection from the NW...gee, ya think?
and my favorite quote,
"look at the infrared...how it just like AWW MAN, it just plows EVERYTHING IN ITS PATH!"
sorry to be such a critic, but seeing how many people pay on that site, I would expect some better info.
Seriously? He really didn't make an actual forecast, unless "See ya you'll be dead in the next 24hrs" is a serious forecast for Bret and Cindy. And his bit on Dora... oh my.
Google Maps shows an airstrip with two military helicopters and a twin-engine plane on an apron that looks like it's missing its right stabilizer. There's a cluster of buildings, a dock with small boats and another military helicopter on the far southwest corner. Wikipedia says "In 1957 the Mexican Navy established a naval base on Socorro and has had a permanent presence on the island since then."
No, it's way too big to be a pinwheel eye.
Nah, its more like a doughnut to me.
Southern Chile emergency after heavy snowstorms
Thanks. What I've read, among all the junk around, is that some CT claim that project Haarp is a project for weather manipulation, to be used as a weapon and that it's been made portable in aircraft carriers to create an atmospheric high pressure and manipulate weather...
Anyhow, there are some replicas around the world...
"In America, there are two related ionospheric heating facilities: the HIPAS, near Fairbanks, Alaska, which was dismantled in 2009, and (currently offline for reconstruction) one at the Arecibo Observatory in Puerto Rico. The European Incoherent Scatter Scientific Association (EISCAT) operates an ionospheric heating facility, capable of transmitting over 1 GW effective radiated power (ERP), near Troms, Norway.[13] Russia has the Sura Ionospheric Heating Facility, in Vasilsursk near Nizhniy Novgorod, capable of transmitting 190 MW ERP."
10 AM: 995.8
12 PM: 995.3
1 PM: 994.7
2 PM: 994.4
3 PM: 994.1
Say it will be 65 mph or 70 mph at the update
WTNT43 KNHC 212038
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032011
500 PM AST THU JUL 21 2011
SEVERAL MICROWAVE IMAGES THIS AFTERNOON SHOW THAT CINDY HAS BEEN
TRYING TO FORM AN EYEWALL. A CLEAR SPOT HAS BEEN APPARENT IN
VISIBLE IMAGERY...ALTHOUGH THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS NEVER WRAPPED
AROUND IT ENOUGH TO CALL IT AN EYE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE UNCHANGED FROM EARLIER...AND A RECENT CIRA
AMSU ESTIMATE WAS 49 KT. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS 50 KT...BUT THIS COULD BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 040/24. CINDY REMAINS EMBEDDED IN MODERATE
DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND THE MAIN BAND OF THE WESTERLIES TO THE NORTHWEST.
THIS PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST AND STEER CINDY GENERALLY
NORTHEASTWARD FOR 36 HR OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A MORE EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION BEFORE THE CYCLONE DISSIPATES. THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS JUST A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION.
CINDY SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO COLD SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK AND EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN
ABOUT 24 HR AND WEAKEN TO A TROUGH IN ABOUT 72 HR IN AGREEMENT WITH
THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 21/2100Z 42.3N 45.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 22/0600Z 44.5N 41.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 22/1800Z 47.9N 36.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 23/0600Z 51.6N 29.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 23/1800Z 55.0N 22.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
See page 32 of this (LARGE!) document: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/HFP2011/HFP_2011.pdf
A snippet:
"Primary IFEX Goal: 3 - Improve understanding of the physical processes important in intensity change for
a TC at all stages of its lifecycle
Experiment Objectives:
The observational objective is to obtain SST and flight-level, surface, and profile wind observations in
tropical cyclones over several days during the decay process over cold water. Observations must be
sufficient to obtain a reliable estimate of the cyclone%u2019s maximum sustained surface wind."
Nah, she's more of the raspberry kind.
Their mets must think the wave will not fracture and/or stay buried in the Caribbean.
Both are possible solutions.
But a reality show could be in da offing maybe.
Bret: 65 mph
Cindy: 60 mph (May strengthen some more)
I bet the next will be a hurricane.
Arlene: 1.63
Bret: 2.95
Cindy: 1.18
Total: 5.76
Pacific ACE is over 25.0.
Cat 5?
I have a pair of pinhead eyes....
EX: Celia(2010), Darby(2010), Adrian(2011)...
I'm pretty sure Adrian died out because he found out he didn't get a Wikipedia page.
This would keep it out of the surface divergence region of the east/central Caribbean and may also allow to consolidate more.
Well Said and I totaly "Agree"
Taco :o)
Dr Masters has a pool?? Hey everyone!! DocMasters has a pool!!
POOL PARTY AT DOC'S HOUSE!!
WTNT43 KNHC 212038
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032011
500 PM AST THU JUL 21 2011
SEVERAL MICROWAVE IMAGES THIS AFTERNOON SHOW THAT CINDY HAS BEEN
TRYING TO FORM AN EYEWALL. A CLEAR SPOT HAS BEEN APPARENT IN
VISIBLE IMAGERY...ALTHOUGH THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS NEVER WRAPPED
AROUND IT ENOUGH TO CALL IT AN EYE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE UNCHANGED FROM EARLIER...AND A RECENT CIRA
AMSU ESTIMATE WAS 49 KT. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS 50 KT...BUT THIS COULD BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 040/24. CINDY REMAINS EMBEDDED IN MODERATE
DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND THE MAIN BAND OF THE WESTERLIES TO THE NORTHWEST.
THIS PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST AND STEER CINDY GENERALLY
NORTHEASTWARD FOR 36 HR OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A MORE EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION BEFORE THE CYCLONE DISSIPATES. THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS JUST A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION.
CINDY SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO COLD SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK AND EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN
ABOUT 24 HR AND WEAKEN TO A TROUGH IN ABOUT 72 HR IN AGREEMENT WITH
THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE
I dont think Cindy will have a chance to make it even close to 65 to 75 mph, it appears on satellite that she is loosing more convection than she can refire, Weakening will begin soon...
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