U.S. heat wave blamed for 22 deaths; Bret and Cindy no threat
The dangerous U.S. heat wave of July 2011 will continue to bring another day of exceptionally humid heat to over 100 million Americans today, with 33 states plus the District of Columbia currently under heat advisories. The heat index--how hot the air feels when factoring in both the temperature and the humidity--exceeded 100° in twenty states in the Central and Eastern U.S. on Wednesday, peaking at 123° in Council Bluffs, Iowa. At least 22 deaths are being blamed on the heat in the Midwest. The extreme humidity that has accompanied this heat has made it a very dangerous one, since the body is much less able to cool itself when the humidity is high. The high humidities are due, in great part, to the record rains and flooding in the Midwest over the past few months that have saturated soils and left farmlands flooded. Accompanying the heat has been high levels of air pollution, which also contributes to mortality. Air pollution is expected exceed federal standards and reach code orange, "Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups", in at least 22 states today, according to the latest forecasts from EPA.
The extreme heat peaked in Chicago yesterday, where the temperature hit 100° at Midway Airport and the Chicago Lakefront station. Rockford, Illinois hit 100°, the first time in 22 years that city had seen 100° temperatures. Detroit is expected to hit 100° for the first time in sixteen years today, and I think I'm going to skip the Ann Arbor Art Fair! New York City and the mid-Atlantic states are expected to be near 100° on Friday. The forecast high of 103° in Washington D.C. for Friday is just 3° below the hottest temperature ever recorded in the city, 106°. The heat will continue in the mid-Atlantic states through Sunday, then ease on Monday when a cold front is expected to pass through. Wunderground's climate change blogger Dr. Ricky Rood has some good insights on the current heat wave in his latest post. A few notable highlights from this week:
Omaha, Nebraska has been above 80° for a four-day period beginning on July 17. This is the 2nd longest such stretch on record, next to the 8-day period that ended July 25, 1934. Multi-day periods when the low temperatures do not cool off below 75° are associated with high heat wave death rates.
Amarillo, Texas recorded its 26th day of 100° temperatures yesterday, tying the city's record for most 100° days in a year, last set in 1953. Record keeping in the city goes back to 1892.
Minneapolis, Minnesota, recorded its highest dew point ever, 82°, on Tuesday. The heat index hit a remarkable 118° in the city, which tied July 11, 1966 for the highest heat index on record in the city. Minnesota's all-time highest dew point temperature of 86° was tied on Sunday, in Madison. The previous record was in St. James and Pipestone in July of 2005.
The latest National Weather Service storm summary has a list of cities where the heat index exceeded 100° yesterday.
Figure 1. On Wednesday, heat advisories for this dangerous heat wave covered portions of 33 states plus the District of Columbia, an area with 141 million people--about half the population of the U.S.
Tropical Storm Bret no threat
Tropical Storm Bret continues to struggle with high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots, and high shear is expected to affect the storm the remainder of the week. The combination of high wind shear and dry air nearby should act to destroy Bret by Sunday, and the storm is not a threat to any land areas.
Tropical Storm Cindy forms
Tropical Storm Cindy formed yesterday 600 miles to the east of Bermuda. Cindy's formation was 24 days ahead of the usual formation date for the third named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, which is August 13. This year has the most early season activity since 2008, when Hurricane Dolly got named on July 20. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots, and is expected to remain moderate for several days. However, Cindy has moved over cool ocean waters of 25°C this morning, and this temperature is 1.5°C below the threshold of 26.5°C that tropical storms typically need in order to maintain their strength. With Cindy predicted to move over waters of just 21°C by Friday morning, the storm doesn't have long to live. Cindy is not a threat to any land areas.
An African wave worth watching
An African wave near 12N 50W, 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, is moving west to west-northwest at about 15 mph, and is generating a limited amount of heavy thunderstorms due to the presence of a large amount of dust and dry air from the Sahara. This wave will spread heavy rain showers and strong gusty winds to the northern Lesser Antilles beginning on Saturday. The wave has a modest degree of spin to it, and is under low wind shear, 5 - 10 knots. Once it finds a moister environment near the Bahama Islands early next week, it could develop. Of the latest 00Z and 06Z runs of the four reliable models for predicting formation of a tropical depression, only the NOGAPS model shows development of the wave. The NOGAPS predicts the wave could attain tropical depression status on Wednesday, just off the coast of South Carolina. The other models generally depict too much wind shear over the Bahamas for the wave to develop. The eventual track of the wave once it reaches the Bahamas early next week is uncertain; there will be a trough of low pressure located off the U.S. East Coast that will be capable of turning the wave to the north, along the East Coast. However, it is also quite possible that the wave would be too weak and to far south to feel the influence of this trough, and instead would enter the Gulf of Mexico.
Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Dora.
Hurricane Dora in the Eastern Pacific close to Category 5
Hurricane Dora in the Eastern Pacific put on an impressive burst of intensification over the past 24 hours, and is now a very impressive Category 4 storm with 155 mph winds, just 1 mph short of Category 5 status. Dora is expected to move parallel to the coast of Mexico, and should not cause any major trouble in that country. Dora is the second major hurricane in the East Pacific this year; Hurricane Adrian topped out as a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds in early June.
Think cold. Way cold!
Those of us sweltering in today's heat would do well to consider that on this date in 1983, Vostok, Antarctica shivered at -128°F--the coldest temperature ever measured on Earth. The low tonight in Vostok is expected to be a relatively balmy -80°F.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 — Blog Index
Date: 4:00 PM EDT Thursday 21 July 2011
Condition: Partly Cloudy
Pressure: 29.65 inches
Tendency: rising
Visibility: 15 miles
Air Quality Health Index: 4
Temperature: 99.3°F
Dewpoint: 74.7°F
Humidity: 46 %
Wind: W 20 gust 31 mph
Humidex: 119
A few ensemble members, and even the CMC operational run, try to take the storm NNW, allowing it to traverse the Baja peninsula. This solution would bring the remnant moisture and vorticity up to our neck of the woods, allowing rare thunderstorms to form over the coastal regions of Southern California.
Unfortunately (for those looking for Dora to make it to SoCal...I realize this is fortunate for Baja), this solution is very unlikely as the models are in strong agreement that the ridge currently centered over central US will build westward. In the process, Dora will be unable to take a northerly track toward Baja/Southern California, and will instead head NW. However, although Dora herself will head way out to sea, she will pull deep tropical moisture northward which will further enhance monsoonal flow over the SW US. Additionally, it should also be noted that as the ridge builds westward, flow over Baja and Southern California will turn more South Easterly, allowing monsoonal moisture to head our way. This will increase moisture in the mid levels of the atmosphere, which may allow for some afternoon thunderstorms over the mountains around early next week.
we haven't got a lot of rain up here in CT this year but the latest forecast out of Albany has me excited for some relief form the heat..97.2 at 4:00pm. just to let you know, that is very very hot for here.
...Convective cloud cover noted in mountains on
satellite imagery...and terrain can also be a focus for convective
initiation. Any thunderstorms could go ballistic...as stated
earlier...due to the respectable instability and relatively strong
wind fields through the boundary layer.
Tradewinds in the Caribbean move heat waves away... We can cool off easily cause we're 100 x 35 surrounded by water...
Amazing that we were next to the big lake and STILL had that happen!
Isabel, N RD& PR
Granite, the monsoon trough which was elongated across the eastern Atlantic at one point, did aid the tropical wave. However, the wave did not originate there.
Cleared out her eye on the last 2 frames, migh get cat 5!
Yeah, and in fact, I have seen it hotter here in Fairbanks, Alaska at 65N latitude than Puerto Rico on a few days this summer.
Current page layout for wxunderground.com goes kaflooey in Opera Webrowser, but looks fine as ever in Firefox.
Some years ago, one of the lesser football teams here in Scotland beat the biggest team in the land 2-0 in a cup match. Inverness Caledonias Thistle vs Celtic. ICT are known simply as 'Caley' to their fans.
The next day, the newspaper headline was -
Super Caley Go Ballistic, Celtic Are Atrocious
I thought that was brilliant.
OK, now I need to go to Google Maps to find the name of the poor little island out there about to get nuked. Never knew it was there!
Won't be more than a balmy breeze by the time they reach here.
NOUS42 KNHC 211500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT THU 21 JULY 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 22/1100Z TO 23/1100Z JULY 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-051
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW
LEVEL INVEST AT 24/1800Z NEAR 21.0N 69.0W.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. HURRICANE DORA
FLIGHT ONE -- NOAA 43
A. 22/2000Z
B. NOAA3 0104E DORA
C. 22/1600Z
D. 19.8N 1110.0W
E. 22/1930Z TO 22/2230Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: FIX HURRICANE DORA
NEAR 21.5N 113.0W AT 24/0000Z.
JWP
+ 10
Does Dick Van Dyke know about this?
Orbital rendezvous with Mike Collins and the trip back home...
The Return to Orbit
Corrected Transcript and Commentary Copyright 1995 by Eric M. Jones.
124:21:54 Aldrin: 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, Abort Stage, Engine Arm, Ascent, Proceed.
[They launch at 124:22:00. Note that, now that they have launched, the LM call sign is once again "Eagle"]
[Buzz gets the 16-mm camera started about 6 seconds after liftoff.]
124:22:07 Aldrin: (Static) (Garbled) shadow. Beautiful.
124:22:09 Aldrin: 26, 36 feet per second up. Standby for the pitchover.
Levi, usually in many places in the internet they comment about project Haarp that is located there in Alaska. There are a lot of junk ideas, disinformation, conspiracy theories about it.
What is really behind the project or what is the serious, local state position about it?
An active year, yes. Extraordinarily active. Record-breakingly active. And there've been a lot of such active years lately.
Here it goes... Maybe miss it N
Inaccuweather
they've taken the comedic route in trying to get people to watch lol
Jim forgot to take his meds..he was too excited about Dora at the end..LOL
Actually I have heard little about that. All I know is that HAARP deals with auroral research. How could that lead to conspiracy theories lol. I'll have to read up on it.
Gotta get back to work now. Back later.
Well their forecast for the tropical wave is comical, too.
Wow...
Afternoon all.
Dooms Day for Europe.What a catastrophe.
Viewing: 401 - 451
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 — Blog Index