A heat wave recap; generally quiet tropics
Last week's U.S. heat wave has finally subsided, and most of the Northeast will see some cool highs in the 70s today. Unfortunately, the Midwest, and mid-Atlantic will continue to see high temperatures in the 90s for the rest of this week, and the southern Plains will be forced to continue to endure triple-digits.
According to the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), 2,100 daily high maximum temperature records have been set so far in July 2011, and 51% of those were set last week. 4,734 daily high minimum temperature records have been set so far this month, and 55% of those were set last week. Here's a breakdown of last week's records for the period July 18 through July 24:
High Maximum:
• 1,076 warmest maximum temperature for the date
• 90 warmest maximum temperature for the month of July
• 56 warmest maximum temperature of all time
High Minimum:
• 2,595 warmest minimum temperature for the date
• 207 warmest minimum temperature for the month of July
• 123 warmest minimum temperature of all time
The number of warm minimum temperatures is especially disturbing, as these tend to have more of an impact on health than the high maximums. When the temperature remains high at night, it prevents the body from being able to recover from the day's heat. According to NOAA, from July 1 through July 19, there were 22 heat-related deaths in the United States. Reuters is reporting that 34 deaths resulted from this heat wave. In an average year, heat remains the number one weather-related killer in this country. In some ways, the overnight low temperatures are the best way to quantify a heat wave, possibly even better than the heat index.
Figure 1. Map of daily high maximum temperature records for the period July 1 through July 25 from NCDC. Red circles without an X denote a broken record; red circles with an X denote a tied record.
Tropical Overview
The wave formerly known as Invest 90L
The wave formerly known as Invest 90L is moving slowly west through the Caribbean near Jamaica. A new burst of convection started this morning, which will undoubtedly produce some heavy rain over southern Cuba and Jamaica. While low-level circulation has remained about the same since late last week, the wave has become top-heavy with increased circulation at higher levels (700-500mb). None of the models (GFS, ECMWF, CMC, NGPS, UKMET) are developing this wave as tracks into the Gulf of Mexico, and they're all in agreement that the path will be toward far southern Texas or northern Mexico, except for the ECMWF deterministic run, which hints that it will take a turn toward the northern Gulf. However, this model hasn't shown actual development from the wave since Tuesday or Wednesday of last week.
NHC has dropped this invest as of Saturday afternoon, but it remains on their radar. They're giving the wave a 0% chance to form over the next 48 hours. Given the recent uptick in mid-level circulation, I'd imagine they're still a little concerned about the potential for this wave to fire-up again once it's in the Gulf, and it will surely be of concern for Cuba as it tracks westward. However, given the lack of model support for almost 7 days in a row now, I'd say this wave has seen its glory come and go.
Figure 2. Visible tropical Atlantic satellite captured at 11:14am EDT on Monday.
Other North Atlantic waves
There are a couple other waves to speak of that have left the coast of Africa in the past few days, one located near 40W and the other closer to Africa, around 30W, which is tangled up in the monsoon trough. The former is expected to take a southerly track, skirting northern South America, and possibly into the Bay of Campeche. Given this track, none of the models are suggesting it will develop. However, tropical cyclones that spin up in the Bay of Campeche generally have a short forecast lead time, so it's something to watch. The latter wave could take a slightly more northern track through the Caribbean islands, and a couple of the models seem to favor this wave for development at the end of their runs.
Tropical wave activity has been lacking so far this season, but climatologically we should see an increase in African easterly waves in August and September.
Angela
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 — Blog Index
WOW...our heat index is still at 90...cant even cool down at night before we are hot with the sun the next day again...
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
OMG Please Stop it.... I can not "Laugh" anymore... then I read this
Nothing like Stirring up a Bunch of Ants to watch them "Die".....
Yall are "Killing Me"
Taco :o)
When we were kids my friends brother killed a lizard and his Dad (who was a Navy Seal) told him, "You know the rules, you kill it, you eat it." So, he made him build a little campfire and rotisserie spit and made him roast it and it eat. He cried like a baby. We all laughed our arses off.
Also, I'm in SFL and I suddenly have outside black yard ants, coming out of the electrical outlet in the kitchen.
Bugcasters 1.
Yet still we have someone complaining every other day about how Internet Explorer isn't working.
EYE?
now if ya really wanna have some fun...give em grits...dry grits...they eat it and explode cuz it swells up inside em...bout like giving a seagull alka seltzer (not that ive ever done that mind you) and btw...that one was just for you taco... :)
Oh no not the baby daddy. LOL
how far off is it? ive been waiting for the storms to get closer to get pics looks like some coming in from the north east soon
roflmbo
No it's still in the mid levels.
I think that I might agree to that statement..........In about 24 Hours.
You and me both. Between you and tiggeriffic I have two new methods to try. :) Gotta do something, the hills are getting so high they gonna have to put a red light on top to meet building height codes.
Night yall.
yeah i think its a ways off..... bet from the top of the east end of the bluff in the brac would be a cool place to watch from tonight.....though it looks like its raining pretty hard there ;-p
That's the recipe to take out cockroaches too.
Works excellent for fleas also
Dulac
lol yup.. this things firing more convection tonight than it has the past two nights combined in my opinion...hope we get some more rain from it later tonight/tomorrow seems like we have been missing the real heavy stuff with the exception of one brief heavy shower around lunch time
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 2:30 PM MONDAY...FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM NOW SHIFTS TO
WEDNESDAY AS CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR A WET TUESDAY.
THE NAM AND GFS...WHICH IS THE FAVORED SOLUTION SHOW THE COUPLING
OF INSTABILITY/OMEGA AND UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO ABOVE FIFTY PERCENT FOR
ALL AREAS DURING THIS TIME. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS RUNNING 2.41
INCHES VIA THE GFS AND STORM MOTIONS OF 10 KNOTS...A FLOOD WATCH
DID CROSS MY MIND BUT AT THIS POINT...WILL SEE HOW THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON PLAYS OUT FROM A RAINFALL STANDPOINT AND LET THE
MIDNIGHT SHIFT EVALUATE.
FOR WEDNESDAY...THE NAM DRAMATICALLY DRIES THE COLUMN OUT AS WHAT
IS BY THAT TIME A MID LEVEL LOW IS DEPICTED OFFSHORE WHEREAS THE
GFS WITH SUPPORT FROM THE ECMWF HAVE THIS FEATURE FURTHER INLAND
KEEPING THE REGION IN A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT. AS I MENTIONED
EARLIER...HAVE OPTED FOR THE WETTER SOLUTION AND TRENDED POPS UP.
FOR TEMPERATURES...HAVE USED THE ADJMAV BIAS CORRECTED ACROSS THE
BOARD TRIMMING A DEGREE OR TWO OFF THE HIGHS VIA THE WIDESPREAD
MOISTURE AND ADDING A DEGREE OR TWO FOR THE OVERNIGHT LOWS CITING
THE SAME REASON.
Yea a Cat1 maybe a low end Cat2 but thats about it. Not seeing anything to make it any bigger.... Now as for where it is going not really sure.... I will say from TX to Pcola.... Thats about the best I can do as for now.... In a few days we will have a better handle on this one...(I Think)
Taco :o)
Vorticity looks to have deepened some and looks stacked vertically at 850, 700, and 500 MB.
Glad you can join our insect and critter eradication lesson tonight
00z NAM:
Link
Link
Viewing: 1451 - 1501
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 — Blog Index