A heat wave recap; generally quiet tropics

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:45 PM GMT on July 25, 2011

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Last week's U.S. heat wave has finally subsided, and most of the Northeast will see some cool highs in the 70s today. Unfortunately, the Midwest, and mid-Atlantic will continue to see high temperatures in the 90s for the rest of this week, and the southern Plains will be forced to continue to endure triple-digits.

According to the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), 2,100 daily high maximum temperature records have been set so far in July 2011, and 51% of those were set last week. 4,734 daily high minimum temperature records have been set so far this month, and 55% of those were set last week. Here's a breakdown of last week's records for the period July 18 through July 24:

High Maximum:

• 1,076 warmest maximum temperature for the date
• 90 warmest maximum temperature for the month of July
• 56 warmest maximum temperature of all time

High Minimum:

• 2,595 warmest minimum temperature for the date
• 207 warmest minimum temperature for the month of July
• 123 warmest minimum temperature of all time

The number of warm minimum temperatures is especially disturbing, as these tend to have more of an impact on health than the high maximums. When the temperature remains high at night, it prevents the body from being able to recover from the day's heat. According to NOAA, from July 1 through July 19, there were 22 heat-related deaths in the United States. Reuters is reporting that 34 deaths resulted from this heat wave. In an average year, heat remains the number one weather-related killer in this country. In some ways, the overnight low temperatures are the best way to quantify a heat wave, possibly even better than the heat index.


Figure 1. Map of daily high maximum temperature records for the period July 1 through July 25 from NCDC. Red circles without an X denote a broken record; red circles with an X denote a tied record.

Tropical Overview

The wave formerly known as Invest 90L

The wave formerly known as Invest 90L is moving slowly west through the Caribbean near Jamaica. A new burst of convection started this morning, which will undoubtedly produce some heavy rain over southern Cuba and Jamaica. While low-level circulation has remained about the same since late last week, the wave has become top-heavy with increased circulation at higher levels (700-500mb). None of the models (GFS, ECMWF, CMC, NGPS, UKMET) are developing this wave as tracks into the Gulf of Mexico, and they're all in agreement that the path will be toward far southern Texas or northern Mexico, except for the ECMWF deterministic run, which hints that it will take a turn toward the northern Gulf. However, this model hasn't shown actual development from the wave since Tuesday or Wednesday of last week.

NHC has dropped this invest as of Saturday afternoon, but it remains on their radar. They're giving the wave a 0% chance to form over the next 48 hours. Given the recent uptick in mid-level circulation, I'd imagine they're still a little concerned about the potential for this wave to fire-up again once it's in the Gulf, and it will surely be of concern for Cuba as it tracks westward. However, given the lack of model support for almost 7 days in a row now, I'd say this wave has seen its glory come and go.


Figure 2. Visible tropical Atlantic satellite captured at 11:14am EDT on Monday.

Other North Atlantic waves

There are a couple other waves to speak of that have left the coast of Africa in the past few days, one located near 40W and the other closer to Africa, around 30W, which is tangled up in the monsoon trough. The former is expected to take a southerly track, skirting northern South America, and possibly into the Bay of Campeche. Given this track, none of the models are suggesting it will develop. However, tropical cyclones that spin up in the Bay of Campeche generally have a short forecast lead time, so it's something to watch. The latter wave could take a slightly more northern track through the Caribbean islands, and a couple of the models seem to favor this wave for development at the end of their runs.

Tropical wave activity has been lacking so far this season, but climatologically we should see an increase in African easterly waves in August and September.

Angela

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Quoting Neapolitan:
Nevermind; ATCF glitch



dran you lol
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Quoting Neapolitan:
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al922011.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201105241808
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 92, 2011, DB, O, 2011052312, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL922011
AL, 92, 2011052312, , BEST, 0, 317N, 570W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 175, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 92, 2011052318, , BEST, 0, 306N, 566W, 25, 1008, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 175, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 92, 2011052400, , BEST, 0, 298N, 562W, 25, 1008, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 250, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 92, 2011052406, , BEST, 0, 290N, 556W, 25, 1008, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 92, 2011052412, , BEST, 0, 282N, 550W, 25, 1008, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 175, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 92, 2011052418, , BEST, 0, 278N, 544W, 25, 1008, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 175, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,




they skip 91L lol
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854. xcool
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Quoting FLdewey:


RIP

rapid infrared progress?
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Nevermind; ATCF glitch
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Quoting TxHurricanedude11:
please look at it



nop
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848. yoboi
Quoting FLdewey:


RIP


later this week they show the high pressure over the central US moving back slightly to the east therefore blocking anything from entering north GOM but south texas and mexico look to be in trouble if something form in the GOM
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Quoting TxHurricanedude11:
for those ignoring 90L suit yourself dont be sorry if it develops



i have some nic lift overe BBQ crow in the oven keeping it warm
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Quoting TxHurricanedude11:
for those ignoring 90L suit yourself dont be sorry if it develops



could you plzs this stop with this 90L will not develop
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Quoting extreme236:
Im kind of interested in what's going on at roughly 36W..


And look farther east...two nice blobs in western africa just waiting their turn...august just a week away. My 7/31 date for a named storm still has a shot
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841. yoboi
Quoting j2008:

Just momentarally, it still looks way better than it was this morning. Its not really getting any weaker though.


i agree but let's seein 36 hrs what it looks like...
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Quoting extreme236:
Im kind of interested in what's going on at roughly 36W..



same here has am done with ex 90L
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Convection is starting to wane...which is usually normal. We will see what happens at Dmax Tonight.
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836. j2008
Quoting yoboi:


looks like it's getting weaker

Just momentarally, it still looks way better than it was this morning. Its not really getting any weaker though.
Member Since: December 19, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 224
835. yoboi
Quoting TxHurricanedude11:

???


ex90 near too much land mass right now give it 36 hrs the look to see what it does
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Quoting P451:


And BOOM goes the dynamite!

Put it in a rocking motion...and put a nice fat ugly circle around what appears to now be the dominant surface circulation.



Now let's see if the system persists into the night possibly for the first time taking advantage of DMax. If it were to continue it's history of collapsing after day time heating had passed then I just don't know about it's chances.

Looks the best it ever has. Finally has a surface feature that is becoming more defined with time. Finally has convergence and divergence. Now you would expect to see the vort work down into the 850 level if convection persists.

Looking back roughly 72 hours ago this is where most models (with the exception of the nam and nogaps which were northern outliers showing a well developed system north of cuba) showed significant organization taking place.

That seems to be exactly what is occurring.

Just looking for persistence now.

Excellent analysis!
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Im kind of interested in what's going on at roughly 36W..
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829. yoboi
Quoting P451:


And BOOM goes the dynamite!

Put it in a rocking motion...and put a nice fat ugly circle around what appears to now be the dominant surface circulation.



Now let's see if the system persists into the night possibly for the first time taking advantage of DMax. If it were to continue it's history of collapsing after day time heating had passed then I just don't know about it's chances.

Looks the best it ever has. Finally has a surface feature that is becoming more defined with time. Finally has convergence and divergence. Now you would expect to see the vort work down into the 850 level if convection persists.

Looking back roughly 72 hours ago this is where most models (with the exception of the nam and nogaps which were northern outliers showing a well developed system north of cuba) showed significant organization taking place.

That seems to be exactly what is occurring.

Just looking for persistence now.



looks like it's getting weaker
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Quoting P451:


And BOOM goes the dynamite!

Put it in a rocking motion...and put a nice fat ugly circle around what appears to now be the dominant surface circulation.



Now let's see if the system persists into the night possibly for the first time taking advantage of DMax. If it were to continue it's history of collapsing after day time heating had passed then I just don't know about it's chances.

Looks the best it ever has. Finally has a surface feature that is becoming more defined with time. Finally has convergence and divergence. Now you would expect to see the vort work down into the 850 level if convection persists.

Looking back roughly 72 hours ago this is where most models (with the exception of the nam and nogaps which were northern outliers showing a well developed system north of cuba) showed significant organization taking place.

That seems to be exactly what is occurring.

Just looking for persistence now.

Dont you think the close proximity to land tonight, will still not let it organize? Tuesday night....maybe
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Okay I'm out.Have a nice night everyone.
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Quoting Levi32:
Air pressure does continue to plummet in the NW Caribbean, fast enough to muffle the diurnal cycles, which means things could still happen. It's not like pressures are 1014mb and staying there with no hope in sight.



Looks like the pressure is leveling. We will see!
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


I got my camera ready!
The storm chasers will be happy this year If a storm(or few) would come to our shores.
Quoting j2008:

Its gotta happen sometime I guess. We (the US) have been fairly safe these past few years, I guess our luck has run out if the high stays this strong.
Well I don't like when it happens.We all know how the story of hurricane Katrina divided the country.
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Is it POLL TIME??
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That vorticity map is great; I want to see the night-time convection to back it up... lol
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Looks like this year the high in the Atlantic is to strong to allow storms to recurve like they did last year.Damn....Could it be a North Carolina year?.We'll see.Most of the Analogs suggest it.


I got my camera ready!
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815. xcool
TxHurricanedude11:
be nice
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Quoting TxHurricanedude11:
Will you please stop posting that image ones enough



?
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Quoting TomTaylor:
Yes ma'am

here's the link where you can watch the model run

Thanks for the link. Although we can use the rain, I really don't like it when a model shows anything like that heading directly for my house.
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Quoting belizeit:
Check this out lates Vorticity has improved a lot watch out Cancun



you beat me too it
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Quoting jasonweatherman2011:
WOW!!! WOW!!!! WOW!!
Not at all surprised... I was about to say when somebody showed the Twave at 30W just disappear that I'll be impressed by another wave when it's got a low coming off with it.... OK, I'm starting to feel a wee bit impressed...
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90L looks like a disorganized mess to me. Most convection is inland with some offshore. Development might be a little more likely once it moves away from Cuba, but its prospects are low.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.