Tropical Storm Don close to landfall; 91L tracks west
Tropical Storm Don continues to make its way west-northwest toward the Texas coast this evening. Don has increased steadily in pressure over the past 18 to 24 hours. Wind speed remained 45 knots in the 5pm EDT advisory. The strongest thunderstorm activity continues to be south of the center, southeast of Brownsville, Texas, but the strongest winds are to the north according to Hurricane Hunter data. A mesoscale vortex developed on the southern end this afternoon with high radar reflectivity. Radar estimated rainfall rates are as much as 5 inches per hour to the south, and around 2 inches on the north side of the storm, but these are likely an overestimate, although rainfall rate is definitely higher on the southern end of this storm. It began raining in Brownsville, Texas in the 2pm CDT hour, and so far the airport has received 0.3 inches of rain. The heaviest thunderstorms still look to be to Brownsville's southeast.
Figure 1. Radar reflectivity from Brownsville, Texas at 5pm CDT.
Forecast for Tropical Storm Don
A Hurricane Hunter is currently in the storm, and center fixes suggest Don will make landfall south of Baffin Bay, Texas, in the next couple of hours. Tropical storm-force winds, should there be any, will most likely be seen in a swath from Baffin Bay to Corpus Christi. Once Don moves inland it is expected to dissipate quickly, and without having produced enough meaningful rainfall to impact any drought conditions. The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center isn't predicting any rainfall that would exceed flash flood guidance, and no flood watches or warnings are in effect.
NHC Invest 91L
Moderate thunderstorm activity continues in Invest 91L this afternoon, and the Hurricane Center estimates that the axis of the wave is located near 42W. Estimates from satellites show that 91L has a moderate circulation at all levels, and the Advanced Scatterometer resolved a surface circulation early this morning.
Figure 2. Advanced Scatterometer pass over 91L at 7am EDT this morning. The wind barbs show a low-level circulation had formed near the most intense thunderstorms—a good sign of potential development.
Some of the reliable models—GFS, UKMET, and CMC—are developing 91L into at least a weak tropical cyclone. The ECMWF continues to show no development, but a more interesting solution, one that takes the wave on a southerly track. The GFDL does not develop Invest 91L, but the HWRF forecasts category 1 hurricane strength by August 1st. The track for 91L is likely a turn to the northwest when it reaches the Caribbean and a curve to the northeast around the Bahamas. The models that are developing the system do not suggest this is a U.S. landfall threat, although it's pretty early in the game to predict that, and I imagine the track will fluctuate over the next few days. Today the Hurricane Center gives the wave a 30% chance of development (now 50% in the 8pm EDT outlook) over the next 48 hours, and I'm around 40-50% over its lifetime.
I'll have a post tomorrow afternoon on the aftermath of Don as well as NHC Invest 91L.
Angela
Reader Comments
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wow
guys take a look at this link... we already had one disaster this week we dont need any more rain from emily here
I would say if anything, people think your a troll more than Jason by the fact that your comments are automatically minimized and his aren't. Be nice! Plenty of room for all of us here to put in our 2 cents worth on the weather!
He is not trying to cause any trouble. He is voicing HIS opinion which we are all entitled to have our own opinion.
Whats this? wind due west at Sunset house, Grand Cayman
I agree 100%... unless he's purposefully causing trouble, leave the dude alone. If he bothers you, then ignore him... if you don't have something nice to say, then don't say anything.
haha i assure you that wave in the carribean wont be developing.. running into land soon and doesnt have a closed low
I don't think anyone was intentionally ignoring you. It's just that this question gets asked multiple times each year--often around the first time it's mentioned by NHC--and the answer is only a Google click away. Too, it's one of those "insider" question jokers (aka "trolls") ask just to be funny. You know, along the same lines as asking repeatedly about the XTRP "model"... ;-)
The quality of your posts has really taken a down turn. You aren't of any use to read most of the time, and therefore have been ignored.
This is a 5000 pt Double Tropical Jeopardy Question.
U have 2 minutes.
Mark
Thanks. It was answered by a few people already. The question though was not really (although it is a little confusing) what does recurve mean, it was the origin of the term, which is not easily found by Google.
Didn't say it would be , but yellow circles lately have been known to go from near 0% to tropical storm in less than 24 hours, never be too sure!
Yet another factor to consider....3/4 days from now I think we will have a better grasp on "Emily".
I will be watching very closely....A nice rain maker would be fantastic but she looks likely to be formidable unless she takes a southern track and interference with land keeps her from strengthening. The other major concern is for the Islands. Ive seen bloggers from Barbados and PR report that they cant handle anymore rain. Flooding will likely be a big issue for our Island friends.
Well that stinks, 6.4 right offshore has to be a good shake. Hope there's no damage.
The way it looks, seems like 91L will be declared a TStorm, bypassing the Tropical depresion status...
No, Jason is most definitely not a troll. He has a genuine passion for tropical storms, but he is a bit different from the rest of us. It's possible he has Asperger syndrome. People with Asperger syndrome are known to become deeply involved in specialist subjects, particularly subjects that are scientific.
Keep up the good work, Jason. I appreciate your input.
Really? Because the way I see it, in at least 4 of those line plots there is a likely direct impact on the USA.
You need to get your sh*t together, young man. You constantly post conflicting information on this board. As one of the most "enthusiastic" and prolific posters here, some (particularly those new to the site) may construe your often wild ramblings as fact.
dude quit it with the caps nobody likes it
32 handles and more flip flopping more than taz jokingly does is trying to fit in?...and taz goes overboard...
Who are you, and what have you done with the real Taz? ;-)
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