Tropical Storm Don close to landfall; 91L tracks west

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 11:42 PM GMT on July 29, 2011

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Tropical Storm Don continues to make its way west-northwest toward the Texas coast this evening. Don has increased steadily in pressure over the past 18 to 24 hours. Wind speed remained 45 knots in the 5pm EDT advisory. The strongest thunderstorm activity continues to be south of the center, southeast of Brownsville, Texas, but the strongest winds are to the north according to Hurricane Hunter data. A mesoscale vortex developed on the southern end this afternoon with high radar reflectivity. Radar estimated rainfall rates are as much as 5 inches per hour to the south, and around 2 inches on the north side of the storm, but these are likely an overestimate, although rainfall rate is definitely higher on the southern end of this storm. It began raining in Brownsville, Texas in the 2pm CDT hour, and so far the airport has received 0.3 inches of rain. The heaviest thunderstorms still look to be to Brownsville's southeast.


Figure 1. Radar reflectivity from Brownsville, Texas at 5pm CDT.

Forecast for Tropical Storm Don
A Hurricane Hunter is currently in the storm, and center fixes suggest Don will make landfall south of Baffin Bay, Texas, in the next couple of hours. Tropical storm-force winds, should there be any, will most likely be seen in a swath from Baffin Bay to Corpus Christi. Once Don moves inland it is expected to dissipate quickly, and without having produced enough meaningful rainfall to impact any drought conditions. The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center isn't predicting any rainfall that would exceed flash flood guidance, and no flood watches or warnings are in effect.

NHC Invest 91L

Moderate thunderstorm activity continues in Invest 91L this afternoon, and the Hurricane Center estimates that the axis of the wave is located near 42W. Estimates from satellites show that 91L has a moderate circulation at all levels, and the Advanced Scatterometer resolved a surface circulation early this morning.


Figure 2. Advanced Scatterometer pass over 91L at 7am EDT this morning. The wind barbs show a low-level circulation had formed near the most intense thunderstorms—a good sign of potential development.

Some of the reliable models—GFS, UKMET, and CMC—are developing 91L into at least a weak tropical cyclone. The ECMWF continues to show no development, but a more interesting solution, one that takes the wave on a southerly track. The GFDL does not develop Invest 91L, but the HWRF forecasts category 1 hurricane strength by August 1st. The track for 91L is likely a turn to the northwest when it reaches the Caribbean and a curve to the northeast around the Bahamas. The models that are developing the system do not suggest this is a U.S. landfall threat, although it's pretty early in the game to predict that, and I imagine the track will fluctuate over the next few days. Today the Hurricane Center gives the wave a 30% chance of development (now 50% in the 8pm EDT outlook) over the next 48 hours, and I'm around 40-50% over its lifetime.

I'll have a post tomorrow afternoon on the aftermath of Don as well as NHC Invest 91L.

Angela

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2051. ajcamsmom2
3:36 AM GMT on July 31, 2011
I appreciate your posts Jason...Thanks for all the time you invest on this blog...

Member Since: March 15, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 2490
2050. druseljic
2:38 AM GMT on July 31, 2011
Quoting palmasdelrio:
Why isn't the blog refreshing?
It can be quite a bit of fun at times. Take it just like the tropics, it is what it is :-)
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 655
2049. palmasdelrio
11:51 PM GMT on July 30, 2011
Why isn't the blog refreshing?
Member Since: May 22, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 178
2048. palmpt
10:21 PM GMT on July 30, 2011
Quoting watchingnva:


32 handles and more flip flopping more than taz jokingly does is trying to fit in?...and taz goes overboard...

You are obviously new. Taz is one of the most loyal visitors to this site. And a lot of us appreciate him.
Member Since: August 10, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 242
2047. bluenosedave
9:30 PM GMT on July 30, 2011
Quoting Tazmanian:
we may see 91L at 100% at 8pm


Who are you, and what have you done with the real Taz? ;-)
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 361
2046. watchingnva
8:29 PM GMT on July 30, 2011
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
He's not a troll. He is just trying very hard to "fit in".


32 handles and more flip flopping more than taz jokingly does is trying to fit in?...and taz goes overboard...
Member Since: September 7, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 1494
2045. FrankZapper
8:16 PM GMT on July 30, 2011
Quoting tropicfreak:


Jason is a troll, put him on ignore. I have several of his handles on ignore.
Will the real troll please stand up.
Member Since: May 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
2044. Jedkins01
8:01 PM GMT on July 30, 2011
Quoting jasonweatherman2011:
big news its invest 91L IS ONLY MOVING WNW AT 14 MPH!! ITS SLOW DOWN THE LAST REPORT AT 8AM INVEST WAS MOVING AT 20 MPH!!


dude quit it with the caps nobody likes it
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7272
2043. NOLALawyer
7:57 PM GMT on July 30, 2011
Quoting jasonweatherman2011:
wow!! all the models are saying going out to sea! thank god the usa is save for now!!


Really? Because the way I see it, in at least 4 of those line plots there is a likely direct impact on the USA.

You need to get your sh*t together, young man. You constantly post conflicting information on this board. As one of the most "enthusiastic" and prolific posters here, some (particularly those new to the site) may construe your often wild ramblings as fact.
Member Since: September 3, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 520
2042. outlookchkr
7:57 PM GMT on July 30, 2011
Quoting tropicfreak:


wow
Walk a mile in his shoes......
Member Since: October 28, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 65
2041. outlookchkr
7:55 PM GMT on July 30, 2011
Quoting stormpetrol:


Wow! 91L just got look that about it! I think some are in for a bad blow!
I agree, dry air ceased being a problem long ago. Shear is no big problem, it ramps up within 18 hrs.
Member Since: October 28, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 65
2040. yonzabam
7:51 PM GMT on July 30, 2011
Quoting tropicfreak:


Jason is a troll, put him on ignore. I have several of his handles on ignore.


No, Jason is most definitely not a troll. He has a genuine passion for tropical storms, but he is a bit different from the rest of us. It's possible he has Asperger syndrome. People with Asperger syndrome are known to become deeply involved in specialist subjects, particularly subjects that are scientific.

Keep up the good work, Jason. I appreciate your input.
Member Since: July 20, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2893
2039. sunlinepr
7:51 PM GMT on July 30, 2011
Quoting stormpetrol:
91L has commenced an almost due west movement at 270-275 degrees with a well defined center near 12.5N/48.7W, jmo.


The way it looks, seems like 91L will be declared a TStorm, bypassing the Tropical depresion status...
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9694
2038. stormpetrol
7:45 PM GMT on July 30, 2011
91L has commenced an almost due west movement at 270-275 degrees with a well defined center near 12.5N/48.7W, jmo.
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7664
2037. IceCoast
7:43 PM GMT on July 30, 2011
Quoting PcolaDan:



Well that stinks, 6.4 right offshore has to be a good shake. Hope there's no damage.
Member Since: October 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1267
2036. Neapolitan
7:42 PM GMT on July 30, 2011
NEW BLOG ENTRY
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13456
2035. WeatherNerdPR
7:42 PM GMT on July 30, 2011
NEW BLOG!
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5626
2034. DVG
7:42 PM GMT on July 30, 2011
Quoting Wunderwood:
OMG! The parochial prognostication has started already i. e. "this thing has North Carolina written all over it" and " look out Jacksonville" Get a grip people!
Jacksonville? Jacksonville has shields. :)
Member Since: August 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 259
2033. MiamiHurricanes09
7:42 PM GMT on July 30, 2011
Impressive upper-level divergence associated with 91L. This should result in lowered surface pressures, which would allow for surface convergence to increase, which currently is a little lackluster.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
2032. overwash12
7:42 PM GMT on July 30, 2011
Quoting jasonweatherman2011:
ITS STARING TO MOVE to the northwest little!! look like its going out to sea
It's already out to sea!LOL
Member Since: June 24, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1457
2031. jonelu
7:41 PM GMT on July 30, 2011
Quoting Levi32:
This tropical wave way up northeast of 91L, north of 20N, is interesting, as it is following behind way up there creating a wave in the Azores High. It will be interesting to see whether the shortwave ridging generated ahead of the wave will keep 91L a nudge farther south as it enters the eastern Caribbean.



Yet another factor to consider....3/4 days from now I think we will have a better grasp on "Emily".
I will be watching very closely....A nice rain maker would be fantastic but she looks likely to be formidable unless she takes a southern track and interference with land keeps her from strengthening. The other major concern is for the Islands. Ive seen bloggers from Barbados and PR report that they cant handle anymore rain. Flooding will likely be a big issue for our Island friends.
Member Since: October 31, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 882
2030. stormpetrol
7:40 PM GMT on July 30, 2011
Quoting floridaboy14:

haha i assure you that wave in the carribean wont be developing.. running into land soon and doesnt have a closed low


Didn't say it would be , but yellow circles lately have been known to go from near 0% to tropical storm in less than 24 hours, never be too sure!
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7664
2029. Gorty
7:40 PM GMT on July 30, 2011
Is the pattern here for a New England tropical cyclone? We here in New England got spared from Earl in 2010 but what about from soon to be Emily?

Member Since: November 8, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 1058
2028. robj144
7:40 PM GMT on July 30, 2011
Quoting Neapolitan:

I don't think anyone was intentionally ignoring you. It's just that this question gets asked multiple times each year--often around the first time it's mentioned by NHC--and the answer is only a Google click away. Too, it's one of those "insider" question jokers (aka "trolls") ask just to be funny. You know, along the same lines as asking repeatedly about the XTRP "model"... ;-)


Thanks. It was answered by a few people already. The question though was not really (although it is a little confusing) what does recurve mean, it was the origin of the term, which is not easily found by Google.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 825
2027. FLWeatherFreak91
7:39 PM GMT on July 30, 2011
Jeanne is a good analogue for 91l. We have to watch for the storm to first be lifted north by the trough, then it could be pushed back to the west as the high builds back in vigorously.
Member Since: December 1, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3619
2024. Patrap
7:39 PM GMT on July 30, 2011
Using the accepted DVORAK technique,,please give your synoptic reasoning as to forecast and current.

This is a 5000 pt Double Tropical Jeopardy Question.

U have 2 minutes.

Mark
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127543
2023. Slamguitar
7:39 PM GMT on July 30, 2011
Quoting jasonweatherman2011:
going out to sea with the fish!!


The quality of your posts has really taken a down turn. You aren't of any use to read most of the time, and therefore have been ignored.
Member Since: July 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1183
2022. PcolaDan
7:38 PM GMT on July 30, 2011


Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
2021. Neapolitan
7:38 PM GMT on July 30, 2011
Quoting robj144:


I'll ask one more time...Where did the term "recurve" come from? From the context of the discussions here, it seems to mean to turn out to sea. Isn't that just a curve out to sea? To "recurve" would imply it's already curving out to sea (or somewhere) and then curves again, thus recurving. Or does "recurve" mean something else?

I don't think anyone was intentionally ignoring you. It's just that this question gets asked multiple times each year--often around the first time it's mentioned by NHC--and the answer is only a Google click away. Too, it's one of those "insider" question jokers (aka "trolls") ask just to be funny. You know, along the same lines as asking repeatedly about the XTRP "model"... ;-)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13456
2020. stormpetrol
7:37 PM GMT on July 30, 2011
The weather in our area has looked a little suspicious all day.
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7664
2019. floridaboy14
7:37 PM GMT on July 30, 2011
Quoting stormpetrol:


Whats this? wind due west at Sunset house, Grand Cayman

haha i assure you that wave in the carribean wont be developing.. running into land soon and doesnt have a closed low
Member Since: July 25, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1102
2017. Tazmanian
7:36 PM GMT on July 30, 2011
we may see 91L at 100% at 8pm
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114712
2016. robj144
7:36 PM GMT on July 30, 2011
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
A blog troll is someone who comes to your blog specifically to cause trouble.

He is not trying to cause any trouble. He is voicing HIS opinion which we are all entitled to have our own opinion.


I agree 100%... unless he's purposefully causing trouble, leave the dude alone. If he bothers you, then ignore him... if you don't have something nice to say, then don't say anything.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 825
2015. stormwatcherCI
7:36 PM GMT on July 30, 2011
Quoting HurricaneEmily:


I know, right? Some hard way of him attempting to ''fit in'', in here, LOL, =).
You know right now I really don't care if I get banned. You should talk Mr. 5000 handles. Many of us are not fooled about who you are and you need to think before you dis another blogger. Yes, Jason gets overexcited about things but he has NEVER disrespected anyone on here.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8266
2014. cchsweatherman
7:35 PM GMT on July 30, 2011
I'm really not sold on the idea of this system curving out to sea. With an anticipated trough split down the road, the trough split would have a much bigger effect on Emily than a shortwave trough over the NW Atlantic since the trough split would tend to pull the system more in tandem with it.
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5163
2013. Nolehead
7:35 PM GMT on July 30, 2011
can i ask WHY??? haven't they at least calling this a depression, even though it clearly is a ts by now??
Member Since: June 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1924
2012. stormpetrol
7:35 PM GMT on July 30, 2011


Whats this? wind due west at Sunset house, Grand Cayman
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7664
2010. stormwatcherCI
7:34 PM GMT on July 30, 2011
Quoting tropicfreak:


Jason is a troll, put him on ignore. I have several of his handles on ignore.
A blog troll is someone who comes to your blog specifically to cause trouble.

He is not trying to cause any trouble. He is voicing HIS opinion which we are all entitled to have our own opinion.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8266
2009. palmbaywhoo
7:34 PM GMT on July 30, 2011
Quoting tropicfreak:


wow

I would say if anything, people think your a troll more than Jason by the fact that your comments are automatically minimized and his aren't. Be nice! Plenty of room for all of us here to put in our 2 cents worth on the weather!
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 387
2008. SouthALWX
7:33 PM GMT on July 30, 2011
Jason: Chill bro.
Member Since: August 27, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1497
2007. java162
7:32 PM GMT on July 30, 2011
http://dominicanewsonline.com/news/all-news/photos- miracle-lake-before-and-after-the-layou-disaster/


guys take a look at this link... we already had one disaster this week we dont need any more rain from emily here
Member Since: July 24, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 300
2005. Patrap
7:32 PM GMT on July 30, 2011
LARGE image

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127543
2004. K8eCane
7:32 PM GMT on July 30, 2011
well it has the correct shape and spin on satellite but it remains to be seen if it has the right winds and pressure
Member Since: April 26, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 3075
2003. tropicfreak
7:31 PM GMT on July 30, 2011
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
He's not a troll. He is just trying very hard to "fit in".


wow
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6874
2002. stormwatcherCI
7:30 PM GMT on July 30, 2011
Quoting tropicfreak:


Jason is a troll, put him on ignore. I have several of his handles on ignore.
He's not a troll. He is just trying very hard to "fit in".
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8266

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.