Tropical Storm Don close to landfall; 91L tracks west
Tropical Storm Don continues to make its way west-northwest toward the Texas coast this evening. Don has increased steadily in pressure over the past 18 to 24 hours. Wind speed remained 45 knots in the 5pm EDT advisory. The strongest thunderstorm activity continues to be south of the center, southeast of Brownsville, Texas, but the strongest winds are to the north according to Hurricane Hunter data. A mesoscale vortex developed on the southern end this afternoon with high radar reflectivity. Radar estimated rainfall rates are as much as 5 inches per hour to the south, and around 2 inches on the north side of the storm, but these are likely an overestimate, although rainfall rate is definitely higher on the southern end of this storm. It began raining in Brownsville, Texas in the 2pm CDT hour, and so far the airport has received 0.3 inches of rain. The heaviest thunderstorms still look to be to Brownsville's southeast.
Figure 1. Radar reflectivity from Brownsville, Texas at 5pm CDT.
Forecast for Tropical Storm Don
A Hurricane Hunter is currently in the storm, and center fixes suggest Don will make landfall south of Baffin Bay, Texas, in the next couple of hours. Tropical storm-force winds, should there be any, will most likely be seen in a swath from Baffin Bay to Corpus Christi. Once Don moves inland it is expected to dissipate quickly, and without having produced enough meaningful rainfall to impact any drought conditions. The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center isn't predicting any rainfall that would exceed flash flood guidance, and no flood watches or warnings are in effect.
NHC Invest 91L
Moderate thunderstorm activity continues in Invest 91L this afternoon, and the Hurricane Center estimates that the axis of the wave is located near 42W. Estimates from satellites show that 91L has a moderate circulation at all levels, and the Advanced Scatterometer resolved a surface circulation early this morning.
Figure 2. Advanced Scatterometer pass over 91L at 7am EDT this morning. The wind barbs show a low-level circulation had formed near the most intense thunderstorms—a good sign of potential development.
Some of the reliable models—GFS, UKMET, and CMC—are developing 91L into at least a weak tropical cyclone. The ECMWF continues to show no development, but a more interesting solution, one that takes the wave on a southerly track. The GFDL does not develop Invest 91L, but the HWRF forecasts category 1 hurricane strength by August 1st. The track for 91L is likely a turn to the northwest when it reaches the Caribbean and a curve to the northeast around the Bahamas. The models that are developing the system do not suggest this is a U.S. landfall threat, although it's pretty early in the game to predict that, and I imagine the track will fluctuate over the next few days. Today the Hurricane Center gives the wave a 30% chance of development (now 50% in the 8pm EDT outlook) over the next 48 hours, and I'm around 40-50% over its lifetime.
I'll have a post tomorrow afternoon on the aftermath of Don as well as NHC Invest 91L.
Angela
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Emily herself is already a record holder. She is the only name, since 1979 when we added boy names to the mix and started the 6 year rotation , to have reached major hurricane strength 3 times. (Cat 4 in '05, Cat 3 in '93, Cat 3 in '87). If she manages to once again reach major hurricane status it will be her 4th such occurrence. In case your wondering, all time 2 other names have reached major hurricane status 4 times. Frances in 2004, 1980, 1976, and 1961, and Ella in 1978, 1969, 1962, and 1958.
Cat 5 Emily July 16th, 2005
Emily is also the earliest forming Category 5 Hurricane of all time. On July 16th, 2005 her central pressure fell to 929 mb and her sustained winds reached 160 mph.
Link
Yep, that was our last direct Hurricane hit.
Incorrect, sir. The HWRF has developed 91L all along.
Or are we still to the point of ...ehhh... no idea yet, because it's still too early?
We were eventually hit by Georges here in MS. :-) I still remember the night he struck vividly.
When was the last time a TS or a TD hit CA?
Arlene was predicted well in advance.
I'm not saying that 91L won't develop. I was just pointing out those two runs. It has already been stated multiple times that the HWRF and GFDL are unreliable until we have an actual tropical cyclone. It's important to follow the ECMWF, CMC and GFS for now.
This was Georges entering into the Gulf. I didn't realize just how big he actually was...
Lets see what tomorrow (later today) brings for 91L.
Goodnight everyone!
Yep, pretty large and liked land and tropical beaches.
I actually have not been there. I have lived in Mississippi my whole life and have been to most areas of the state, but not there. Why?
No model performs worth a crap without good data....sat data equals crappy data. So one out of four for the models.....really? I'm not trying to harsh on you I'm just REALLY skeptical of the models until they have real numbers to crunch.
Good buddy of mine lives there...I visited him there once a looong time ago. Nice country...nice people.
Well, you have to remember how small these systems have been, though. 91L is on a much larger scale than Bret, Cindy and Don have been, which makes it much easier for the models to see. Now that the models can see this tropical wave with ease, most of the global models are developing it in some way.
But just to add onto my statements, I am certainly no model hugger. They are there for guidance, not truth. Most of the time, they are fairly accurate until a certain time out into the future. We, as humans, have to take the good data and throw out the bad that's given to us from the computers.
I agree they usually perform better with a larger system.
How do you know I'm human?
My predictions
1. Develop by Sunday/Monday
2. Become a hurricane
3. Landfall in the Islands
4. Possible landfall in PR
5. Be 200-300 miles North of Hispanola
Lol...I'm about to go to bed as well. My prediction is that 91L develops into a hurricane and affects Puerto Rico before it stalls out around the Bahamas. A ridge then builds overhead, forcing it westward into Florida. :-) Hey, hardly anyone is on here, so if I get it wrong, so what?
screenshots live forever!! Good night!
LOL. True. Good night.
You were RIGHT!
Well I hope your wrong...West Palm Beach here.. ;-)
AL, 91, 2011073006, , BEST, 0, 110N, 460W, 30, 1007, LO,
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #35
TYPHOON MUIFA (T1109)
15:00 PM JST July 30 2011
==========================================
SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In Sea East Of The Philippines
At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Muifa (970 hPa) located at 16.2N 133.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots with gusts of 100 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest at 6 knots
Dvorak Intensity: T4.5
Storm Force Winds
=================
60 NM from the center
Gale Force Winds
=================
300 NM from the center in south quadrant
200 NM from the center in north quadrant
Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 18.3N 133.1E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Sea East Of Philippines
48 HRS: 20.4N 133.1E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Sea East Of Philippines
72 HRS: 22.7N 132.7E - 85 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Sea South Of Japan
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #43
TROPICAL STORM NOCK-TEN (T1108)
15:00 PM JST July 30 2011
==========================================
SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In Gulf of Tonkin
At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Nock-Ten (985 hPa) located at 19.4N 106.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 10 knots
Dvorak Intensity: T3.0
Gale Force Winds
================
200 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
140 NM from the center in northwest quadrant
Forecast, Intensity, and Location
==================================
24 HRS: 19.8N 102.4E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Overland Laos
48 HRS: 20.6N 101.0E - Tropical Depression Overland Laos
Interesting 6z plot.
Im in Munich for a week. Traveling around Europe for the next few weeks.
My home is in WPB.
I'm guessing WPB, is west palm beach? Also you mentioned doing a seasonal outlook blog earlier...just wanted to say I hope you do it lol
Be sure to visit Schloss Neuschwanstein
Thanks!
Yeah, I might do it in the first few days of August.
Last seasonal outlook I did was three years ago, but the results were pretty good.
Forecast:
Verification:
And Mellau, Austria isn't far either.
Viewing: 801 - 851
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