Tropical Storm Don close to landfall; 91L tracks west
Tropical Storm Don continues to make its way west-northwest toward the Texas coast this evening. Don has increased steadily in pressure over the past 18 to 24 hours. Wind speed remained 45 knots in the 5pm EDT advisory. The strongest thunderstorm activity continues to be south of the center, southeast of Brownsville, Texas, but the strongest winds are to the north according to Hurricane Hunter data. A mesoscale vortex developed on the southern end this afternoon with high radar reflectivity. Radar estimated rainfall rates are as much as 5 inches per hour to the south, and around 2 inches on the north side of the storm, but these are likely an overestimate, although rainfall rate is definitely higher on the southern end of this storm. It began raining in Brownsville, Texas in the 2pm CDT hour, and so far the airport has received 0.3 inches of rain. The heaviest thunderstorms still look to be to Brownsville's southeast.
Figure 1. Radar reflectivity from Brownsville, Texas at 5pm CDT.
Forecast for Tropical Storm Don
A Hurricane Hunter is currently in the storm, and center fixes suggest Don will make landfall south of Baffin Bay, Texas, in the next couple of hours. Tropical storm-force winds, should there be any, will most likely be seen in a swath from Baffin Bay to Corpus Christi. Once Don moves inland it is expected to dissipate quickly, and without having produced enough meaningful rainfall to impact any drought conditions. The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center isn't predicting any rainfall that would exceed flash flood guidance, and no flood watches or warnings are in effect.
NHC Invest 91L
Moderate thunderstorm activity continues in Invest 91L this afternoon, and the Hurricane Center estimates that the axis of the wave is located near 42W. Estimates from satellites show that 91L has a moderate circulation at all levels, and the Advanced Scatterometer resolved a surface circulation early this morning.
Figure 2. Advanced Scatterometer pass over 91L at 7am EDT this morning. The wind barbs show a low-level circulation had formed near the most intense thunderstorms—a good sign of potential development.
Some of the reliable models—GFS, UKMET, and CMC—are developing 91L into at least a weak tropical cyclone. The ECMWF continues to show no development, but a more interesting solution, one that takes the wave on a southerly track. The GFDL does not develop Invest 91L, but the HWRF forecasts category 1 hurricane strength by August 1st. The track for 91L is likely a turn to the northwest when it reaches the Caribbean and a curve to the northeast around the Bahamas. The models that are developing the system do not suggest this is a U.S. landfall threat, although it's pretty early in the game to predict that, and I imagine the track will fluctuate over the next few days. Today the Hurricane Center gives the wave a 30% chance of development (now 50% in the 8pm EDT outlook) over the next 48 hours, and I'm around 40-50% over its lifetime.
I'll have a post tomorrow afternoon on the aftermath of Don as well as NHC Invest 91L.
Angela
Reader Comments
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Exactly, we had this pattern dominate other years before and almost always hurricanes are steered away from Florida. So just remember the "reverse summertime pattern" is our friend lol
Tons of people at the beach because of this scorching summer.
will not all way has long has 91L has all it needs for a TD they can go a head and make it a TD today if they wanted to i seen this meany of times out there when no HH can fly in tell 55w
now that was not nic
Of course, as long as it is still hurricane season, Florida could be at risk. I am just making my own forecast by saying Florida has a high chance of avoiding them due to the dominating weather pattern.
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #38
TYPHOON MUIFA (T1109)
0:00 AM JST July 31 2011
==========================================
SUBJECT: Category Four Typhoon In Sea East Of The Philippines
At 15:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Muifa (940 hPa) located at 16.6N 132.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots with gusts of 130 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 6 knots
Dvorak Intensity: T5.5
Storm Force Winds
=================
80 NM from the center
Gale Force Winds
=================
300 NM from the center in south quadrant
200 NM from the center in north quadrant
Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 18.4N 132.6E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon)
45 HRS: 20.5N 132.9E - 100 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon)
69 HRS: 23.1N 131.4E - 100 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon)
WTNT44 KNHC 300834
TCDAT4
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DON DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042011
400 AM CDT SAT JUL 30 2011
THE DON IS DEAD. THE CYCLONE LITERALLY EVAPORATED OVER TEXAS ABOUT
AS FAST AS I HAVE EVER SEEN WITHOUT MOUNTAINS INVOLVED. DON HAS NO
CONVECTION...MEAGER RAINFALL...AND ONLY A SLIGHT SIGNATURE IN
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR DATA. THEREFORE...THIS IS THE LAST
ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM. DON SHOULD OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH LATER
TODAY AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO POSE
A RAINFALL THREAT.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 30/0900Z 27.9N 98.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 30/1800Z 28.5N 101.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 31/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
The NHC having some humor I see :)
It's the truth. People call these fish storms all the time but local news reports on people being killed.
If a storm does not hit Florida .... it's a fish storm.
I know JMA is 10-minute sustained winds, but Muifa is stronger then that. At least a 6.5.
Agree, but there is not a Recon flight today into 91L today. Air Force planes are currently on a ferry to St. Croix (Link) so I'm saying not today.
1.) Western Caribbean/Bay of Campeche: There is a tropical wave located in the Western Caribbean, that appears to be moving towards the Yucatan and eventually into the Bay of Campeche, as opposed to entering the Eastern Pacific. While I do not expect development, it will still need to be monitored.
2.) Invest 91L: This area is likely to become Emily within the next 24-36 hours. It has good convection, a well-defined, and closed, low level circulation. Winds are up to 35 mph, and the pressure is down to 1007 mb. The only thing it is lacking to become a tropical depression is the National Hurricane Center.
3.) Tropical Wave moving off Africa: While I do not believe any of the global models develop this wave into a tropical cyclone, it will need to be watched. It appears to have a decent spin to it, and may eventually become a threat to develop, but probably not in the short term.
4.) Wave behind it: This wave will need to be watched in 3-5 days as it enters the Atlantic. The GFS model has been developing this area for several runs now, and the wave is well-defined. This will definitely be watched as it enters the Eastern Atlantic.
Yeah, I mentioned that yesterday. The Atlantic will probably end that streak with Emily, but I'm not sure about the Eastern Pacific.
it hits some in like PR it will not be a fish if it hits MX it will not be a fish if it hits FL or any where else it will not be a fish
Typhoon 1109 (Muifa)
2011JUL30 160100
T6.6
913 hPa
130 knots
Final Tnum 6.6
Adjusted Tnum 6.4
Raw Tnum 7.5
Now thats more like it. A remarkable Rapid Intensification.
Where are you getting this SW flow from? Is it that different on the west coast? This has been the norm for the past month and a half in the south.
000
FXUS62 KMFL 301436
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1036 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2011
.UPDATE...NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY AS ALL
LOOKS ON TRACK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL WITH A PREVAILING
EASTERLY WIND FLOW AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ATLANTIC COAST
WITH A FEW TSTORMS POSSIBLE INTERIOR/GULF COAST.
FOR THE SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...AS THE HIGH RETROGRADES W
.HEIGHTS SLOWLY FALL AND SUBSIDENT DRY AIR CURRENTLY OVER S FLA
IS GRADUALLY REPLACED BY INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTING W FROM THE
ATLC ON THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY WIND FLOW. SO...A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN THE CHANCES OF RAIN WILL OCCUR BUT MAINLY AROUND 20% E COAST
NOCTURNALLY AND EARLY MORNING WITH SCATTERED INTERIOR AND W IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S E WITH MID TO UPPER 90S INTERIOR AND
W. NEAR RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE INTERIOR AND W AGAIN TODAY. TONIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S E COAST METRO AREAS WITH MID TO
UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE. LOWS TONIGHT ALONG THE E COAST WILL BE NEAR
MAXIMUM RECORD LOWS AGAIN FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
EXTENDED FORECAST...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE DEEP EASTERLY WIND
FLOW BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AS WIND CIRCULATION ABOUT THE RETREATING
HIGH AND THE DEEPENING TROUGH TO THE E COME INTO PLAY. UPPER FLOW
BECOMES WESTERLY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE AN EASTERLY REGIME
REDEVELOPS FRIDAY AS THE HIGH REBUILDS EASTWARD. AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EMPHASIS SHIFTS TOWARD THE E MIDWEEK.
a little late lol
Poor fish.
While Sat appears to show otherwies, NHC had it very close to 50W at 8AM EDT:
Well, we did not have this pattern during those years, the dominating weather patterns and steering currents were completely different during 2004 and 2005, hence more hurricane landfalls in Florida.
Florida is at risk every season.
.
.
And people should stop trying to be fish. Both in swimming abilities, and mental abilities. If you don't heed the warnings, don't complain
Isabel did the same thing, except it made landfall a little further to the north in NC.
Ok, that makes sense. Interested to see what the JTWC pegs it at on the next update.
I am talking about further north. Aren't you aware how many troughs having been digging down into the Southeast? The trough does not have to induce a SW surface flow over South Florida to keep a hurricane away, you realize that right?
What is worse? Major troughiness or political rhetoric?
I do realize that however, the blogger I was asking the question of said he lived in SW FL.
Everyone keeps using that term. I do not think it means what they think it means. Now this is a fish storm:
A: 70%
b: 80%
c: 90%
d: 100% im going with B
Also of note, should a second trough come through, possible Franklin that the GFS drops in the CATL in the last run would most probably be recurved.
They actually have had that pattern a lot in SWFL. I believe that user is from the Port Charlotte/Punta Gorda area, which although isn't much further north, has had very often a prevailing SW flow this rain season.
Interesting, yes, ironic, no.
East Pacific storms are more likely to have their majors earlier on. For example, EPac has had 5 Cat 5s prior to August 1st. Atlantic has one.
NOUS42 KNHC 301630
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1230 PM EDT SAT 30 JULY 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 31/1100Z JULY TO 01/1100Z AUGUST 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-060
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (CENTRAL ATLANTIC)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 31/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01EEA INVEST
C. 31/1530Z
D. 14.5N 56.0W
E. 31/1730Z TO 31/2330Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA 49
A. 01/0000Z
B. NOAA9 02EEA SURV
C. 31/1730Z
D. NA
E. NA
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT
FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 71
A. 01/0600Z,1200Z
B. AFXXX 0305A CYCLONE
C. 01/0400Z
D. 15.2N 58.1W
E. 01/0530Z TO 01/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,0000 FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
B. POSSIBLE NOAA G-IV MISSION FOR 02/0000Z.
3. REMARKS:
A. IF SYSTEM DOES NOT DEVELOP, FLIGHT THREE
WILL BECOME A 01/1200Z INVEST MISSION.
B. 30/0600Z REQUIREMENT FOR TROPICAL STORM
DON CANCELED BY NHC AT 29/0100Z.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
Viewing: 1501 - 1551
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