Tropical Storm Don close to landfall; 91L tracks west
Tropical Storm Don continues to make its way west-northwest toward the Texas coast this evening. Don has increased steadily in pressure over the past 18 to 24 hours. Wind speed remained 45 knots in the 5pm EDT advisory. The strongest thunderstorm activity continues to be south of the center, southeast of Brownsville, Texas, but the strongest winds are to the north according to Hurricane Hunter data. A mesoscale vortex developed on the southern end this afternoon with high radar reflectivity. Radar estimated rainfall rates are as much as 5 inches per hour to the south, and around 2 inches on the north side of the storm, but these are likely an overestimate, although rainfall rate is definitely higher on the southern end of this storm. It began raining in Brownsville, Texas in the 2pm CDT hour, and so far the airport has received 0.3 inches of rain. The heaviest thunderstorms still look to be to Brownsville's southeast.
Figure 1. Radar reflectivity from Brownsville, Texas at 5pm CDT.
Forecast for Tropical Storm Don
A Hurricane Hunter is currently in the storm, and center fixes suggest Don will make landfall south of Baffin Bay, Texas, in the next couple of hours. Tropical storm-force winds, should there be any, will most likely be seen in a swath from Baffin Bay to Corpus Christi. Once Don moves inland it is expected to dissipate quickly, and without having produced enough meaningful rainfall to impact any drought conditions. The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center isn't predicting any rainfall that would exceed flash flood guidance, and no flood watches or warnings are in effect.
NHC Invest 91L
Moderate thunderstorm activity continues in Invest 91L this afternoon, and the Hurricane Center estimates that the axis of the wave is located near 42W. Estimates from satellites show that 91L has a moderate circulation at all levels, and the Advanced Scatterometer resolved a surface circulation early this morning.
Figure 2. Advanced Scatterometer pass over 91L at 7am EDT this morning. The wind barbs show a low-level circulation had formed near the most intense thunderstorms—a good sign of potential development.
Some of the reliable models—GFS, UKMET, and CMC—are developing 91L into at least a weak tropical cyclone. The ECMWF continues to show no development, but a more interesting solution, one that takes the wave on a southerly track. The GFDL does not develop Invest 91L, but the HWRF forecasts category 1 hurricane strength by August 1st. The track for 91L is likely a turn to the northwest when it reaches the Caribbean and a curve to the northeast around the Bahamas. The models that are developing the system do not suggest this is a U.S. landfall threat, although it's pretty early in the game to predict that, and I imagine the track will fluctuate over the next few days. Today the Hurricane Center gives the wave a 30% chance of development (now 50% in the 8pm EDT outlook) over the next 48 hours, and I'm around 40-50% over its lifetime.
I'll have a post tomorrow afternoon on the aftermath of Don as well as NHC Invest 91L.
Angela
Reader Comments
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Is there some trick that you mobile users know to log into Wund account?
Thanks for your help
I'll be watching closely.
34 49 67 82 95 65 mph
SHIPS model
James Reynolds
Typhoon Muifa has undergone most explosive bombing I've ever witness in a tropical cyclone. This was a tropical storm when I left the house 12 hours ago and is now undoubtedly a cat. 5 monster
i think at 5 IT WILL BE DESIGNATED A DEPRESSION..... THIS IS WAY BETTER LOOKING THAN ANY OF THE PREVIOUS SYSTEMS WHEN THEY WERE NAMED DEPRESSIONS
Just off the eastern tip of Cuba.
=)
^__________^
Muy bueno!
Does this make me........... HIM?
FACT: to amerliorate the current drought conditions by the end of the day, the entire state of Texas needs the equivalent of about 24 Tropical Storm Dons before midnight.
Cuba Landfall as a hurricane then weak TS, could be a TD when it leaves Cuba
I think they might even give Her 90%.
Link
A. TYPHOON 11W (MUIFA)
B. 30/1432Z
C. 16.6N
D. 132.4E
E. ONE/MTSAT
F. T7.0/7.0/D3.5/24HRS STT: D1.0/06HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 05A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. OFF HOUR FIX DUE TO
CONTINUED RAPID INTENSIFICATION. EYE IS 12NM IN DIAMETER. CMG
SURROUNDING RING YIELDS AN EYE NUMBER OF 6.5. WITH AN OW EYE,
THIS IS ADJUSTED +0.5 FOR A DT 7.0. PT IS 6.0+. DBO DT. DUE TO
RAPID INTENSIFICATION CONSTRAINTS CONTINUE TO BE BROKEN.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
30/1043Z 16.5N 132.8E SSMS
Looks like Jaimito's patented signatures...
Hey Mate!, long time no see. How ya been.
Nope! 80%
You were right :)
Keeps 91L weak for the first 48 hours, when it reaches TS strength and then at 96 hours reaches HU....so slow development. I think that is why it stays south.
weeepaaa
enhora buena!!!
I'ved been good
Think 91L will form?
Well, well. Look what the trade winds blew into the blog! Welcome back, 456!
Hello, thanks for stopping in and saying hello. It is so nice to see your face again. Hope all is well with you and your family
Nice to see you stop by.
Very nice to see you make an appearance here man. Hope all has been well.
Yea, it's well on it's way to becoming TD 5 and later Emily.
Jumping out of lurkdom to say "hi" back at ya! Hope all is well for you and yours, we miss you here - stay safe!
Welcome back 456!!
And opposite of the GFDL, it strengthens 91L quickly, causing the abrupt northerly track.
Finally! The return of someone level headed!
Welcome back, 456!
You going to be coming here more often? I'm sure Levi would love to see you right about now.
It is great to see your smiling face:))
Greetings SKB
First one of the year to watch for our part of the world.
Dan
SXM
We all love to see him right now ...lol.
Long time no see 456! How ya been!
This lurker has sure missed your input! Hope you will visit this season.
No, going to hit the Islands and PR, not a fish storm
Basicallly 2010 Again...the U.S. Hurricane Shield is looking good again this year I pray for the people in the Islands to get the same thing
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