Not a trace of Don; What's next?
Don is dead
Tropical Storm Don, the fourth named storm of the 2011 season, made landfall near Baffin Bay, Texas yesterday evening around 10pm CDT in less-than-grand fashion. The storm was looking very weak for the 24 hours before landfall, but fizzled rapidly after landfall, and by early Saturday morning, there was barely a trace of the storm to show that it even existed in the first place.
NHC Hurricane Specialist Eric Blake probably said it best in this mornings 5am EDT discussion on the storm:
THE DON IS DEAD. THE CYCLONE LITERALLY EVAPORATED OVER TEXAS ABOUT
AS FAST AS I HAVE EVER SEEN WITHOUT MOUNTAINS INVOLVED. DON HAS NO
CONVECTION...MEAGER RAINFALL...AND ONLY A SLIGHT SIGNATURE IN
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR DATA. THEREFORE...THIS IS THE LAST
ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM.
Figure 1. Total precipitation accumulation for the storm, estimated by radar.
The heaviest rainfall was falling south of the storm's center yesterday, so it wasn't surprising that Brownsville saw the most rain, 0.63 inches. KBRO also recorded 18 mph wind gusts. But to the north of the center, where many of the media were located, not a drop of rain fell. Corpus Christi saw zero inches of rain, but did record gale-force wind gusts (39 mph). Harlingen, near Baffin Bay, and close to where the center made landfall, saw 0.20 inches of rain and 18 mph wind gusts. This storm did very, very little to relieve any drought conditions in Southern Texas. And so it continues.
What's next: Invest 91L continues to impress
Invest 91L, which is located near 12°N 48°W in the central Atlantic, continues to impress today, and has shown signs of more organization over the past 24 hours. 91L will probably develop into a tropical cyclone before it reaches the Lesser Antilles, so residents of these islands should remain watchful and prepared. Satellite loops show not only organized thunderstorm activity, but also the makings of a surface circulation. Something this wave has working against it right now is dry air—there's a large mass of Saharan air on the north and east sides of the system, which could at least prevent significant intensification. Also, University of Wisconsin CIMSS analysis shows some strong wind shear (30-40 knots) to the north of the wave. However, I don't expect this to prevent development of the wave. Wind shear out ahead of the system is relatively low (5-15 knots). Moisture is plenty high within the system, and sea surface temperatures are warm and toasty (28°C+) and will only get warmer as 91L moves west into the Caribbean.
Figure 2. Infrared satellite of invest 91L taken at 1:15pm EDT today.
Forecast for 91L
Most of the reliable forecast models (GFS, CMC, FIM, and the ECMWF) have come to agree that 91L will develop, however, they differ on how long-lived that will be. Some of the models are suggesting it will be a short-lived tropical cyclone, not making it out of the Caribbean alive, and some suggest that it will hold together and intensify as it moves north of the Caribbean islands. The forecast track for the system will most likely be to the northwest through the Caribbean, at which point it will take a northeast turn near the Bahamas, never reaching the U.S. coast. HWRF agrees with this track (and also brings the system to category 2 strength by August 3rd). However, there is still some uncertainty that the system could track west, south of the Caribbean islands, and potentially into the Gulf of Mexico. However, none of the models that suggest this solution actually show that the wave will be a tropical cyclone at that point.
The National Hurricane Center is giving this wave an 80% chance of developing into at least Tropical Depression Five over the next 48 hours. Chances are we will see Emily out of this system. A Hurricane Hunter mission is scheduled for tomorrow at 2pm EDT, but I wouldn't be totally surprised to see them call this system this evening, given the threat to the Lesser Antilles.
Watching a northwest Caribbean disturbance
A broad area of disturbed weather is producing some heavy thunderstorms in the northwest Caribbean, southeast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Little to no low-level circulation exists with this feature, and none of the models are picking up on it. The Hurricane Center has "blobbed" this item (as I like to say) with a "near 0%" chance of developing over the next 48 hours. This disturbance could cause major flooding in the region given the amount of thunderstorm activity, and predictability for systems like this (potential Bay of Cempeche tropical cyclones) is very low. Models have a short lead time on development, and they spin up very fast once they enter the Bay of Campeche given the favorable topography of the land surrounding it. The difference between this system, though, and one like Arlene, is that there is very, very little low level circulation already present. Pre-Arlene was a bit more organized before it crossed the Yucatan, and so it's hard to imagine that this disturbance will be able to hold together, should it get that far.
If 91L develops, I'll be back tomorrow with a post.
Angela
Reader Comments
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Depends on your definition of "weak".
It's not the HWRF, but its about 60 knots. GFS is more track guidance rather than a reliable intensity model.
Could you post the link to this model. I used to have it, but it's gone AWOL on me. TIA
I sense a Mad dash to Home Depot..I hope that dosent pan out for South Florida folks
So it shifted West again.
And I think it will continue shifting west. Unless it goes East? No seriously I think they will continue to slowly shift west. Just my opinion
Does topography play a role in its calculations?
They've been meandering on the outskirts of the system when visible satellite imagery obviously shows no signs of an exposed center.
Oh well. Its their fuel.
Trying to post an image but blog is messed up.
Yes of course. They have been able to calculate land interaction for some time now.
NAM/GFS/ECMWF are probably the best global models for that kind of area.
Go back about 1000 posts and yes, everyone sees FL in the tracks
I knew at least one model would start taking it into the gulf today. XD
Finally about to penetrate.
We'll know soon. Im not impressed by the readings thus far.
I understand. Comment was not meant to be taken seriously. But better no comment as you suggest.
01/1145 UTC 14.6N 56.7W T2.0/2.0 91L
01/0545 UTC 14.4N 55.6W T2.0/2.0 91L
"Lovely"
Sarcasm Flag = ON
Morning All
AL, 91, 2011080112, , BEST, 0, 139N, 572W
This could be fun.
AL, 91, 2011080112, , BEST, 0, 139N, 572W, 25, 1008, LO
Thx for the image
Heard dat already for days on runnin
I don't think so
HPC Extended Discussion
USED THE 12Z/31 ECENS MEAN FOR THE PRELIMINARY FRONTS AND
PRESSURES FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7. THERE IS LITTLE AGREEMENT AMONG
THE 00Z/01 DETERMINISTIC MODELS ON THE HANDLING OF SHORTWAVES
CROSSING THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE MEDIUM
RANGE. A MEAN LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES IS A COMMON
FEATURE OF THE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS...BUT THAT IS ABOUT THE ONLY
SUBSTANTIAL POINT OF CONVERGENCE. THE MODELS ARE ALSO STRUGGLING
TO RESOLVE A LOW EMERGING FROM THE TROPICS DURING THE SECOND HALF
OF THE PERIOD...WITH WILDLY DISPARATE FORECASTS. THE 00Z/01 GEFS
MEAN IS A PROGRESSIVE OUTLIER WITH THE WAVE CROSSING THE MIDWEST
DAY 4. THE FLATTER...DILUTED ECENS MEAN SEEMS THE COURSE OF LEAST
REGRET OVER THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST...AND SHOULD SERVE THE WEST AND
EAST COASTS WITH THE SAME EVENHANDEDNESS...AS IT WERE.
Morning SLU, From one Islander to another.
Questions;
Are you seeing a little more push still more west of south rather than WNW movement as the ridge is hardening.
Also with out a closed low the approx center will continue to move until it is closed, hence I approx the center to be closer to 13.7N 57W
Your thoughts!
Now we just need TAFB to get back to 2.0 from the 1.5 it dropped to earlier.
I agree and top of the Morning to you Flood.
Will post when I can.
Viewing: 6301 - 6351
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