Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Not a trace of Don; What's next?

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 7:41 PM GMT on July 30, 2011

+33

Don is dead

Tropical Storm Don, the fourth named storm of the 2011 season, made landfall near Baffin Bay, Texas yesterday evening around 10pm CDT in less-than-grand fashion. The storm was looking very weak for the 24 hours before landfall, but fizzled rapidly after landfall, and by early Saturday morning, there was barely a trace of the storm to show that it even existed in the first place.

NHC Hurricane Specialist Eric Blake probably said it best in this mornings 5am EDT discussion on the storm:

THE DON IS DEAD. THE CYCLONE LITERALLY EVAPORATED OVER TEXAS ABOUT
AS FAST AS I HAVE EVER SEEN WITHOUT MOUNTAINS INVOLVED. DON HAS NO
CONVECTION...MEAGER RAINFALL...AND ONLY A SLIGHT SIGNATURE IN
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR DATA. THEREFORE...THIS IS THE LAST
ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM.

Figure 1. Total precipitation accumulation for the storm, estimated by radar.

The heaviest rainfall was falling south of the storm's center yesterday, so it wasn't surprising that Brownsville saw the most rain, 0.63 inches. KBRO also recorded 18 mph wind gusts. But to the north of the center, where many of the media were located, not a drop of rain fell. Corpus Christi saw zero inches of rain, but did record gale-force wind gusts (39 mph). Harlingen, near Baffin Bay, and close to where the center made landfall, saw 0.20 inches of rain and 18 mph wind gusts. This storm did very, very little to relieve any drought conditions in Southern Texas. And so it continues.

What's next: Invest 91L continues to impress

Invest 91L, which is located near 12°N 48°W in the central Atlantic, continues to impress today, and has shown signs of more organization over the past 24 hours. 91L will probably develop into a tropical cyclone before it reaches the Lesser Antilles, so residents of these islands should remain watchful and prepared. Satellite loops show not only organized thunderstorm activity, but also the makings of a surface circulation. Something this wave has working against it right now is dry air—there's a large mass of Saharan air on the north and east sides of the system, which could at least prevent significant intensification. Also, University of Wisconsin CIMSS analysis shows some strong wind shear (30-40 knots) to the north of the wave. However, I don't expect this to prevent development of the wave. Wind shear out ahead of the system is relatively low (5-15 knots). Moisture is plenty high within the system, and sea surface temperatures are warm and toasty (28°C+) and will only get warmer as 91L moves west into the Caribbean.

Figure 2. Infrared satellite of invest 91L taken at 1:15pm EDT today.

Forecast for 91L
Most of the reliable forecast models (GFS, CMC, FIM, and the ECMWF) have come to agree that 91L will develop, however, they differ on how long-lived that will be. Some of the models are suggesting it will be a short-lived tropical cyclone, not making it out of the Caribbean alive, and some suggest that it will hold together and intensify as it moves north of the Caribbean islands. The forecast track for the system will most likely be to the northwest through the Caribbean, at which point it will take a northeast turn near the Bahamas, never reaching the U.S. coast. HWRF agrees with this track (and also brings the system to category 2 strength by August 3rd). However, there is still some uncertainty that the system could track west, south of the Caribbean islands, and potentially into the Gulf of Mexico. However, none of the models that suggest this solution actually show that the wave will be a tropical cyclone at that point.

The National Hurricane Center is giving this wave an 80% chance of developing into at least Tropical Depression Five over the next 48 hours. Chances are we will see Emily out of this system. A Hurricane Hunter mission is scheduled for tomorrow at 2pm EDT, but I wouldn't be totally surprised to see them call this system this evening, given the threat to the Lesser Antilles.

Watching a northwest Caribbean disturbance

A broad area of disturbed weather is producing some heavy thunderstorms in the northwest Caribbean, southeast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Little to no low-level circulation exists with this feature, and none of the models are picking up on it. The Hurricane Center has "blobbed" this item (as I like to say) with a "near 0%" chance of developing over the next 48 hours. This disturbance could cause major flooding in the region given the amount of thunderstorm activity, and predictability for systems like this (potential Bay of Cempeche tropical cyclones) is very low. Models have a short lead time on development, and they spin up very fast once they enter the Bay of Campeche given the favorable topography of the land surrounding it. The difference between this system, though, and one like Arlene, is that there is very, very little low level circulation already present. Pre-Arlene was a bit more organized before it crossed the Yucatan, and so it's hard to imagine that this disturbance will be able to hold together, should it get that far.

If 91L develops, I'll be back tomorrow with a post.

Angela

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951. sailingallover 1:36 AM GMT on July 31, 2011
Quoting jasonweatherman2011: MODELES STILL TAKING INVEST 91L out to sea!! But the Actual GFS takes it over puerto Rico in the 18Z run... Something is fishy! or not...personally fish would be nice.. Member Since: September 1, 2009 Posts: 23 Comments: 982

953. floridaboy14 1:36 AM GMT on July 31, 2011
Quoting CybrTeddy: Every time, every system. Wax in convection 'TD at 11 am' wane in convection 'not impressive, RIP' teddy did you read what levi posted? thats whats happening to 91L PLUS its DMIN time Member Since: July 25, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 978

954. Patrap 1:37 AM GMT on July 31, 2011
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111503

955. Hurricanes101 1:37 AM GMT on July 31, 2011
this blog is funny sometimes oh no its losing convection at a time that all systems do, lets drop the chances of development down No patience whatsoever on here Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6902

958. Patrap 1:37 AM GMT on July 31, 2011
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111503

959. Vincent4989 1:38 AM GMT on July 31, 2011
Quoting jasonweatherman2011: \to much dry air right now that why you are not seeing any heavy t.storms in the center!! No, the anticyclone is protecting it. The real reason is it is DMIN. Member Since: November 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 728

960. CosmicEvents 1:38 AM GMT on July 31, 2011
Quoting BahaHurican: I hope we never get to the stage where we need pay-to-post. IMO we lose a lot of the positive qualities associated with this blog. I personally do not think the level of "teen tricks" has been very high so far this season, mainly because most bloggers have been pretty quick to [-] and [!] specious posters. And while you may have a personal distaste for the posts of a particular blogger, that's not the same as reacting to a troll spamming the blog. As for Taz and Jason, these guys have their foibles - as do we all - but they are here for the same reason we are. Their interest in tropical weather is clear, and they work hard to participate in this blog. I have my own hypotheses about poor spelling and frequent name changes that have nothing at all to do with spamming the blog or trying to be a nuisance. I like these guys because they remind us to live and let live. It is what it is. I say let them be; put them on ignore if it makes you feel better, but let them be otherwise. I don't want to see this blog become the stodgy, back-slapping entity other "erudite" blogs have become. A great attraction of this blog is the wide variety of bloggers of every shape, size, age, creed, nationality, political stripe possible. It makes us a bit more fractious than other blogs, perhaps, but it also gives this blog a dynamism and vitality that many other blogs lack. YMMV Great post. I'd add that what amongst our different personalities.........there's the one thing that brings us together here on this site. And that's an interest in observing and trying to better understand something that we all know can't be controlled...the weather....with tropical cyclones you have that extreme weather combined with it's unique quality(amongst weather events) of a slow motion train wreck. Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5099

962. TropicalAnalystwx13 1:38 AM GMT on July 31, 2011
Quoting floridaboy14: teddy did you read what levi posted? thats whats happening to 91L PLUS its DMIN time Just because he says something, doesn't necessarily mean that it is true. Something totally different may be going on with 91L, we do not know. Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25315

963. prweatherwatcher 1:38 AM GMT on July 31, 2011
Quoting jasonweatherman2011: way to much dry air!! the dry air its killing the t.storms on it! Thats is 100% true the overall structure remain good but tstorms are not there i think it wont develop until pass the 55W. Member Since: July 29, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 78

964. barbamz 1:39 AM GMT on July 31, 2011
Quoting Levi32: Very interesting....I think 91L's tropical wave is running away from it, based on visible satellite imagery before sunset. The main low-level vortex being called the center by ACTF is to the east, coupled (or nearly so) with the mid-level circulation. A 2nd vortex is off to the WSW, attached to the southern end of the tropical wave. The two features are becoming dissociated, with the tropical wave racing off to the west faster than the circulation which is being left behind. The secondary vortex attached to the wave is getting dragged along for the ride. The reason for this forward speed difference may lie in the fact that the surface winds (indicated by blue arrows) are much faster to the north, and since the tropical wave extended much farther north than the center of circulation, it has been pushed out ahead of it. This meridional trade wind gradient illustrates the strong cyclonic vorticity in the area, but the tropical wave decoupling from 91L's main low center may stall development, as the whole system is now more of a mess. Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 24 Comments: 1596

965. TropicalAnalystwx13 1:39 AM GMT on July 31, 2011
Quoting Hurricanes101: this blog is funny sometimes oh no its losing convection at a time that all systems do, lets drop the chances of development down No patience whatsoever on here Nope. Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25315

966. IKE 1:39 AM GMT on July 31, 2011
Quoting 2005nostalgia: Give me a stinkin' formidable land storm for a change, please! But.....we had Don!!!!! It blasted Brownsville,TX with gusts to near 10 mph. Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

967. JrWeathermanFL 1:40 AM GMT on July 31, 2011
Quoting 2005nostalgia: Well...I'd certainly hope Emily wouldn't go out to sea!! After the last two years I'm simply fed up to death of fish storms. Each one is like a pound of hot chilies on an upset stomach to me. Give me a stinkin' formidable land storm for a change, please! We need a Cape Verde storm to become a Cat. 5 then go to a Cat. 1 and stay that way until it hits Texas. Member Since: July 19, 2011 Posts: 7 Comments: 1051

968. TropicalAnalystwx13 1:40 AM GMT on July 31, 2011
Quoting IKE: But.....we had Don!!!!! It blasted Brownsville,TX with gusts to near 10 mph. haha, that made me laugh. +1 Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25315

970. sailingallover 1:41 AM GMT on July 31, 2011
Quoting jasonweatherman2011: \to much dry air right now that why you are not seeing any heavy t.storms in the center!! It has lost it's tap to the south..yesterday it was sucking it up from the Equator and now it has drier air to it's south... Have to see if the circulation can suck enough moisture out of the ocean... Never thought I would see dry air from the ITCZ being a problem for a storm.. Member Since: September 1, 2009 Posts: 23 Comments: 982

972. Vincent4989 1:42 AM GMT on July 31, 2011
Quoting IKE: But.....we had Don!!!!! It blasted Brownsville,TX with gusts to near 10 mph. TX High Used Drought! It was super effective! Don helped Texas! It was Ineffective! Don Fainted! Member Since: November 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 728

973. prtr4192 1:43 AM GMT on July 31, 2011
question for when you refer to analog year or storm what are you refering to?? Member Since: May 7, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 55

974. Slamguitar 1:43 AM GMT on July 31, 2011
There's some great looking spin on 91L, too bad convection is waning off. Member Since: July 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1021

975. FrankZapper 1:44 AM GMT on July 31, 2011
Quoting BahaHurican: I hope we never get to the stage where we need pay-to-post. IMO we lose a lot of the positive qualities associated with this blog. I personally do not think the level of "teen tricks" has been very high so far this season, mainly because most bloggers have been pretty quick to [-] and [!] specious posters. And while you may have a personal distaste for the posts of a particular blogger, that's not the same as reacting to a troll spamming the blog. As for Taz and Jason, these guys have their foibles - as do we all - but they are here for the same reason we are. Their interest in tropical weather is clear, and they work hard to participate in this blog. I have my own hypotheses about poor spelling and frequent name changes that have nothing at all to do with spamming the blog or trying to be a nuisance. I like these guys because they remind us to live and let live. It is what it is. I say let them be; put them on ignore if it makes you feel better, but let them be otherwise. I don't want to see this blog become the stodgy, back-slapping entity other "erudite" blogs have become. A great attraction of this blog is the wide variety of bloggers of every shape, size, age, creed, nationality, political stripe possible. It makes us a bit more fractious than other blogs, perhaps, but it also gives this blog a dynamism and vitality that many other blogs lack. YMMV Excellent post! I wish the intolerance exhibited by a small minority who seem to be determined to control the blog would stop. Especially their tendency to almost bully others as to who they should or should not ignore. They know who they are. Please listen to Baha and have tolerance. This blog is very important at this time of the year. Member Since: May 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193

976. jeebsa 1:44 AM GMT on July 31, 2011
Quoting ProgressivePulse: Looking at the TVCN this evening, it's basically showing 91L stalling just north of the Bahamas. Bermuda High, Timing is not looking good for the conus. Not trying to stir anything on the blog here but Timing, Timing, Timing is always the final say... Member Since: June 25, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 228

978. Thrawst 1:45 AM GMT on July 31, 2011
Quoting IKE: But.....we had Don!!!!! It blasted Brownsville,TX with gusts to near 10 mph. LOL. Member Since: July 18, 2010 Posts: 49 Comments: 1064

980. BahaHurican 1:45 AM GMT on July 31, 2011
Quoting GainesvilleGator: I guess that makes me one of the early birds. It certainly does... I know u were posting on here when I started... lol Good to see u in the blog.... Quoting Gorty: Different basins are different. Agreed. But there has been some research / hypothesizing to the effect that there is a correlation between EPac / ATL formation [due to the fact that both have AEWs as a major point of storm formation]. Quoting stormhank: Evening Baha..I hope you mis this one but seems some models are edging westward some...once recon investigates system Im sure by tomm night the models will come into better agreement. Hey, hank... I'm hoping I miss this one too... will be interesting tomorrow... Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17663

981. JrWeathermanFL 1:46 AM GMT on July 31, 2011
There are a lot of things that can affect tropical formation. dry air shear DMIN land cold SSTs equator I'm sure that their are more. Member Since: July 19, 2011 Posts: 7 Comments: 1051

983. jonelu 1:47 AM GMT on July 31, 2011
Its certainly not RIP...that dry air finally has played a part. Plus Levi has pointed out some excellent observations. I think its safe to say the next models will be further west. Member Since: October 31, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 882

984. Patrap 1:48 AM GMT on July 31, 2011
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111503

985. barbamz 1:48 AM GMT on July 31, 2011
Wave in some trouble ... Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 24 Comments: 1596

988. TropicalAnalystwx13 1:48 AM GMT on July 31, 2011
Quoting JrWeathermanFL: There are a lot of things that can affect tropical formation. dry air shear DMIN land cold SSTs equator I'm sure that their are more. And the one in bold is the one that 91L is experiencing right now. Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25315

989. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 1:49 AM GMT on July 31, 2011
converence nil or next to it system is fading Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40565

990. Vincent4989 1:49 AM GMT on July 31, 2011
Don't take chances down... Wait for DMAX. Member Since: November 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 728

991. Aeclightning 1:49 AM GMT on July 31, 2011
"R.I.P. Don. It was nice seeing you." He did not come in silently around here in Corpus. And rain Did fall here especially when Don was making landfall. Just not heavy. It seems like everything Don did during the storm's life was weird. The mainly southern confined convection, computer models failure to develop him at first, and then the conditions here upon landfall. It really looked like a typical winter evening over-running situation (where shallow cold front moves through and moisture over rides cold air at surface causing cloudy sometimes drury drizzly weather), save the warm summer air. Over all, I won't be surprised if more significant weird weather, anywhere happens in the coming months, catasthrophic or not. Member Since: October 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 8

992. TropicalAnalystwx13 1:49 AM GMT on July 31, 2011
Quoting lovemamatus: Emily can take it dry for a while, and explode tomorrow. PLANFALF model from Bongevine give it a 80 percent chance of striking the NC/SC coast, minimally as a CAT 3, far more likely as a Cat 4. When you are getting McTavish factors in the 7-7.25 range this early, it becomes quite obvious. Ill be up at 2 eastern to get the new Bongevine feed, but this one in in stone. Your crazy...There is no PLANFALF model, no McTavish factors, no Bongevine feed, none of that. Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25315

993. Patrap 1:50 AM GMT on July 31, 2011
There is No "Emily" There is no "TD" There is only Invest 91L. AL912011 - INVEST Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator) Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111503

995. hcubed 1:51 AM GMT on July 31, 2011
Quoting stormwatcherCI: Which is the main reason many of us, in the Caribbean, during hurricane season come here. And so do others in the US. This site gives us the "between-the-lines" information while the NHC formulates their TWO's. But having to wade through a couple hundred WOW LOOK AT THIS!!! posts or "POOF" posts while trying to make intelligent life saving decisions can get on one's nerves. Member Since: May 18, 2007 Posts: 286 Comments: 1639

996. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 1:51 AM GMT on July 31, 2011
XX/INV/91L MARK 13.48n/49.44w Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40565

997. Hurricanejer95 1:51 AM GMT on July 31, 2011
Quoting JrWeathermanFL: There are a lot of things that can affect tropical formation. dry air shear DMIN land cold SSTs equator I'm sure that their are more. Bolded is what 91L is being affected Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 224

999. ncstorm 1:52 AM GMT on July 31, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: Your crazy...There is no PLANFALF model, no McTavish factors, no Bongevine feed, none of that. LOL..if he had said the Psychic twins, I might have believed him just a little bit..god help us if he is right though, we will never be able to live that model down.. Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 8434

1000. TropicalAnalystwx13 1:54 AM GMT on July 31, 2011
Quoting Hurricanejer95: Bolded is what 91L is being affected There is no shear affecting 91L at this time. While there may be a meager amount of dry air affecting the system, DMIN is the main reason for its look at this time. Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25315

1001. stormwatcherCI 1:54 AM GMT on July 31, 2011
Quoting Cayman2010: Heavy t-storm moving over us now Shut down my computer about 1/2 hr ago and just turned it back on. Lost one a couple years back from lightning and trying hard not to lose another one. Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8040

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