Not a trace of Don; What's next?
Don is dead
Tropical Storm Don, the fourth named storm of the 2011 season, made landfall near Baffin Bay, Texas yesterday evening around 10pm CDT in less-than-grand fashion. The storm was looking very weak for the 24 hours before landfall, but fizzled rapidly after landfall, and by early Saturday morning, there was barely a trace of the storm to show that it even existed in the first place.
NHC Hurricane Specialist Eric Blake probably said it best in this mornings 5am EDT discussion on the storm:
THE DON IS DEAD. THE CYCLONE LITERALLY EVAPORATED OVER TEXAS ABOUT
AS FAST AS I HAVE EVER SEEN WITHOUT MOUNTAINS INVOLVED. DON HAS NO
CONVECTION...MEAGER RAINFALL...AND ONLY A SLIGHT SIGNATURE IN
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR DATA. THEREFORE...THIS IS THE LAST
ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM.
Figure 1. Total precipitation accumulation for the storm, estimated by radar.
The heaviest rainfall was falling south of the storm's center yesterday, so it wasn't surprising that Brownsville saw the most rain, 0.63 inches. KBRO also recorded 18 mph wind gusts. But to the north of the center, where many of the media were located, not a drop of rain fell. Corpus Christi saw zero inches of rain, but did record gale-force wind gusts (39 mph). Harlingen, near Baffin Bay, and close to where the center made landfall, saw 0.20 inches of rain and 18 mph wind gusts. This storm did very, very little to relieve any drought conditions in Southern Texas. And so it continues.
What's next: Invest 91L continues to impress
Invest 91L, which is located near 12°N 48°W in the central Atlantic, continues to impress today, and has shown signs of more organization over the past 24 hours. 91L will probably develop into a tropical cyclone before it reaches the Lesser Antilles, so residents of these islands should remain watchful and prepared. Satellite loops show not only organized thunderstorm activity, but also the makings of a surface circulation. Something this wave has working against it right now is dry air—there's a large mass of Saharan air on the north and east sides of the system, which could at least prevent significant intensification. Also, University of Wisconsin CIMSS analysis shows some strong wind shear (30-40 knots) to the north of the wave. However, I don't expect this to prevent development of the wave. Wind shear out ahead of the system is relatively low (5-15 knots). Moisture is plenty high within the system, and sea surface temperatures are warm and toasty (28°C+) and will only get warmer as 91L moves west into the Caribbean.
Figure 2. Infrared satellite of invest 91L taken at 1:15pm EDT today.
Forecast for 91L
Most of the reliable forecast models (GFS, CMC, FIM, and the ECMWF) have come to agree that 91L will develop, however, they differ on how long-lived that will be. Some of the models are suggesting it will be a short-lived tropical cyclone, not making it out of the Caribbean alive, and some suggest that it will hold together and intensify as it moves north of the Caribbean islands. The forecast track for the system will most likely be to the northwest through the Caribbean, at which point it will take a northeast turn near the Bahamas, never reaching the U.S. coast. HWRF agrees with this track (and also brings the system to category 2 strength by August 3rd). However, there is still some uncertainty that the system could track west, south of the Caribbean islands, and potentially into the Gulf of Mexico. However, none of the models that suggest this solution actually show that the wave will be a tropical cyclone at that point.
The National Hurricane Center is giving this wave an 80% chance of developing into at least Tropical Depression Five over the next 48 hours. Chances are we will see Emily out of this system. A Hurricane Hunter mission is scheduled for tomorrow at 2pm EDT, but I wouldn't be totally surprised to see them call this system this evening, given the threat to the Lesser Antilles.
Watching a northwest Caribbean disturbance
A broad area of disturbed weather is producing some heavy thunderstorms in the northwest Caribbean, southeast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Little to no low-level circulation exists with this feature, and none of the models are picking up on it. The Hurricane Center has "blobbed" this item (as I like to say) with a "near 0%" chance of developing over the next 48 hours. This disturbance could cause major flooding in the region given the amount of thunderstorm activity, and predictability for systems like this (potential Bay of Cempeche tropical cyclones) is very low. Models have a short lead time on development, and they spin up very fast once they enter the Bay of Campeche given the favorable topography of the land surrounding it. The difference between this system, though, and one like Arlene, is that there is very, very little low level circulation already present. Pre-Arlene was a bit more organized before it crossed the Yucatan, and so it's hard to imagine that this disturbance will be able to hold together, should it get that far.
If 91L develops, I'll be back tomorrow with a post.
Angela
Reader Comments
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are you with wine? or with your wife?
Kids...
Don't drink and blog.
Complete Update
TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Someone is getting tipsy. And to answer your question, yes I am. I'm turning 22 on Wednesday.
Drinking is a prerequisite to mingling, lots of coffee in the AM, lots of water in the noon, and a whole lot of alcohol in the pm shift.
Yup I think it will be a TD at the 5 AM. Possibly even Eugene.
The reason is because most of the other models rely on the GFS for their data, Mississippi. So of course they're going to follow in it's footsteps. Almost all of the US based models use the GFS data stream.
I agree, too much troughing.. Same situation with 90L last week. I feel the trough will pick 91L north of the islands, after striking PR, then a ridge tries to build back, a stronger ridge then what the GFS is showing, 91L moves west-northwestward to the Bahamas, then maybe a second trough may start to pull it north and recurve, but I'm very skeptical to say the least. You have people like Jason and Adrian that are 100% confident that 91L is going to recurve, then you have people like me that are very skeptical and believe the models are overdoing the trough. Hurricane Hunters should be in the storm tomorrow, better model output should be shown on the 00z Monday model runs.
Always a plethora of reasons why a system won't curve OTS on here.
Very little info on why people actually agree with the consensus.
91l is really huge.
I say it's going south, and I'm 100% sure of this, based upon simple observation of the organization NOW. It's a lifeless mass of spinning gas right now. It lives in the minds of mathematical models who can't see the environment as well as our eyes can.
? I would have to say that's incorrect. The GFS, CMC, EURO, and UKMET are totally different. All 4 of them take 91L out to sea after they go through the islands.
Okay, here is my info.
The trof that's supposed to be the one to lift 91L up and away is right over where the Super Typhoon is ATM. it's obviously not strong enough to pull the Typhoon north as it's completely stalled out. In 6-7 days or so, it'll be off the east coast. What do you think will amplify that Trof to make it strong enough to pull a Hurricane north when it's currently not doing that now?
I say it's going south, and I'm 100% sure of this, based upon simple observation of the organization NOW. It's a lifeless mass of spinning gas right now. It lives in the minds of mathematical models who can't see the environment as well as our eyes can.
Exactly, too "huge" to pull it's arms in for awhile.
Notice where the GFS is on that scale the further out it is.
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 260 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 175 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 175 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 170 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 170 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 200 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 145 km/hr
After 12 hours of continued rapid intensification, MUIFA (KABAYAN) has been upgraded to a Category 5 Super Typhoon with 1-minute sustained winds of 260 km/hr, and is almost stationary over the North Philippine Sea.
MUIFA (KABAYAN) is expected to continue intensifying, reaching a projected whooping wind speed of 290 km/hr tomorrow. This howler will resume its northward motion for the next 2 days, as it initiates an Eyewall Replacement Cycle (ERC).
Saying that a trof that is halfway around the world will be the same strength when it gets to our hemisphere is simply crazy.
?
That'd be relevant six years ago. I wouldn't be able to count on both hands the number of upgrades the GFS has received since then!!
From resolution upgrades to atmospheric temperature bias correction...
The GFS is not the GFS it was in 2005. It's no ECMWF, but it's good.
Lol...You can't compare models for one season and then say that one is worse than the other. The UKMET is high on that chart and it recurves 91L. The EURO isn't even on there and it has been king the past few seasons. It also recurves 91L.
I didn't say it would be the same strength. I asked what would amplify it. I'm no expert by any means. It was a question. And I also said that if it remained the same that it wouldn't lift it out.
What a monster!
Not married :)
Wake up forecast for the tropics: TD 5/Emily or 90 to 100% on 91L and designation occurs in intermediate advisory(8 Pm) or 5/11 PM After Recon investigate.
96E will have a 90 or 100% on it and will form later tomorrow.
I've nailed all of my past wake up predictions, and I it seems that my gut feeling isnt my best forecasting machine. It's when I'm Delirious(I don't give a dang about spelling, if you had the entire family to deal with you wouldn't care either) that I tend to do my best work.
Apparently being tired enough to pass out in my dried up yard and typing words that come as they pop in your mind is what you would call NHC pro forecasting.
LOL
I dunno, I'm delirious(You Know What I Mean), good night
I'm something like 30 or 31 - I forget. Don't worry I will pass out soon.
I have no idea. I haven't even looked at it...that was just his claim.
Well - happy early b-day! Are you in school for met?
It is an example of how wish-washy all of the models can be as far out as we are. I don't want it to hit the CONUS or ANYONE by any means, but I'm not blind enough to put my faith in models so far out.
That's all I've been trying to say.
Didn't they completely change the GFS last year? I cannot remember.
New wave exiting the west African coast.
Actually it's from a Professor that I know, it's from his blog and FWIW he does think it will recurve, but he thinks it will be an Earl type of recurve.
CNN BREAKING NEWS
Sources: Tentative debt deal calls for up to $2.8 trillion in savings.
Then what else would you be doing besides texting the ladies?
If it remained the same, it still doesn't mean it wouldn't recurve 91L. There would be so many things different in our basin than in the Western Pacific that would change things.
As far as amplifying the trof, I don't know what would amplify it so much. It would probably have something to do with the death ridge over the United States. What amplifies any trof? Making claims that the trof won't amplify as much as the models say without having anything to back up that claim is uneducated. I'll believe you if you give me a good enough reason.
Nope, working on becoming a high school math teacher.
Seems like it's time to step away from the keyboard...
BTW...boxes of wine isn't really something you'd brag about drinking where I'm from.
If the upgrade is compared to plastic surgery...
It'd be a face lift.
sorry we all arent as rich as you :p
It looks to me like the multiple vorts are now battling it out and we will have a winner by tomorrow evening at the latest.
Unfortunately if this pans out the non winners may be the Islands.
There are few times I would like to be wrong.
This is one of them.
This one has had my attention all day and will have a large part of it tomorrow while waiting for recon in 91L.
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