Not a trace of Don; What's next?
Don is dead
Tropical Storm Don, the fourth named storm of the 2011 season, made landfall near Baffin Bay, Texas yesterday evening around 10pm CDT in less-than-grand fashion. The storm was looking very weak for the 24 hours before landfall, but fizzled rapidly after landfall, and by early Saturday morning, there was barely a trace of the storm to show that it even existed in the first place.
NHC Hurricane Specialist Eric Blake probably said it best in this mornings 5am EDT discussion on the storm:
THE DON IS DEAD. THE CYCLONE LITERALLY EVAPORATED OVER TEXAS ABOUT
AS FAST AS I HAVE EVER SEEN WITHOUT MOUNTAINS INVOLVED. DON HAS NO
CONVECTION...MEAGER RAINFALL...AND ONLY A SLIGHT SIGNATURE IN
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR DATA. THEREFORE...THIS IS THE LAST
ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM.
Figure 1. Total precipitation accumulation for the storm, estimated by radar.
The heaviest rainfall was falling south of the storm's center yesterday, so it wasn't surprising that Brownsville saw the most rain, 0.63 inches. KBRO also recorded 18 mph wind gusts. But to the north of the center, where many of the media were located, not a drop of rain fell. Corpus Christi saw zero inches of rain, but did record gale-force wind gusts (39 mph). Harlingen, near Baffin Bay, and close to where the center made landfall, saw 0.20 inches of rain and 18 mph wind gusts. This storm did very, very little to relieve any drought conditions in Southern Texas. And so it continues.
What's next: Invest 91L continues to impress
Invest 91L, which is located near 12°N 48°W in the central Atlantic, continues to impress today, and has shown signs of more organization over the past 24 hours. 91L will probably develop into a tropical cyclone before it reaches the Lesser Antilles, so residents of these islands should remain watchful and prepared. Satellite loops show not only organized thunderstorm activity, but also the makings of a surface circulation. Something this wave has working against it right now is dry air—there's a large mass of Saharan air on the north and east sides of the system, which could at least prevent significant intensification. Also, University of Wisconsin CIMSS analysis shows some strong wind shear (30-40 knots) to the north of the wave. However, I don't expect this to prevent development of the wave. Wind shear out ahead of the system is relatively low (5-15 knots). Moisture is plenty high within the system, and sea surface temperatures are warm and toasty (28°C+) and will only get warmer as 91L moves west into the Caribbean.
Figure 2. Infrared satellite of invest 91L taken at 1:15pm EDT today.
Forecast for 91L
Most of the reliable forecast models (GFS, CMC, FIM, and the ECMWF) have come to agree that 91L will develop, however, they differ on how long-lived that will be. Some of the models are suggesting it will be a short-lived tropical cyclone, not making it out of the Caribbean alive, and some suggest that it will hold together and intensify as it moves north of the Caribbean islands. The forecast track for the system will most likely be to the northwest through the Caribbean, at which point it will take a northeast turn near the Bahamas, never reaching the U.S. coast. HWRF agrees with this track (and also brings the system to category 2 strength by August 3rd). However, there is still some uncertainty that the system could track west, south of the Caribbean islands, and potentially into the Gulf of Mexico. However, none of the models that suggest this solution actually show that the wave will be a tropical cyclone at that point.
The National Hurricane Center is giving this wave an 80% chance of developing into at least Tropical Depression Five over the next 48 hours. Chances are we will see Emily out of this system. A Hurricane Hunter mission is scheduled for tomorrow at 2pm EDT, but I wouldn't be totally surprised to see them call this system this evening, given the threat to the Lesser Antilles.
Watching a northwest Caribbean disturbance
A broad area of disturbed weather is producing some heavy thunderstorms in the northwest Caribbean, southeast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Little to no low-level circulation exists with this feature, and none of the models are picking up on it. The Hurricane Center has "blobbed" this item (as I like to say) with a "near 0%" chance of developing over the next 48 hours. This disturbance could cause major flooding in the region given the amount of thunderstorm activity, and predictability for systems like this (potential Bay of Cempeche tropical cyclones) is very low. Models have a short lead time on development, and they spin up very fast once they enter the Bay of Campeche given the favorable topography of the land surrounding it. The difference between this system, though, and one like Arlene, is that there is very, very little low level circulation already present. Pre-Arlene was a bit more organized before it crossed the Yucatan, and so it's hard to imagine that this disturbance will be able to hold together, should it get that far.
If 91L develops, I'll be back tomorrow with a post.
Angela
Reader Comments
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It's simmering, kind of like a good stew.
Lol, has it even hit since the initial pass a few days ago which confirmed we had a LLC? Purely hit and miss with ASCAT. BTW i PM'd you the documentation on the FIM model,
wow
Yep, noted and corrected... on my last 3 comments.
'Copy&paste, then fill-in the blanks' also multiplies typos.
2171 aspectre "Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the ATCF coordinates for 6amGMT then 12pmGMT, 91L was headed toward MyrtleGrove,NorthCarolina."
2181 ncstorm "I have never heard of Myrtle grove, NC..do you mean myrtle beach, sc..there is a subdivision called myrtle grove in wilmington, nc but thats not a town or city"
Got the right subdivision. Didn't know whether the beach community of MyrtleGrove was incorporated.
are these reds and yellows i see out there? this is already a ts
Yeah, I was going to add that, which is fairly interesting.
LOL..I remember the horror stories though when Bertha and Floyd came through and people had so many water moccasins and frogs in their yards because of that flooding..I can deal with hurricanes but not the rodents that come with them..I remember when Charley hit Wilmington as a Cat 1, the news outlets were showing sewer rats in town swimming in the flooding..uggghh..people seem to forget those little reminders of hurricanes as well..
Most likely outcome is for this to recurve
looks like another big wave ...
Not in that timeframe, but if you were to extrapolate the track out, it would likely have hit Florida. Regardless, it is a considerable shift west by the HWRF.
How about the LGM and LGEN?
It is, no model is being consistent, with the exception perhaps of the GFS, suggesting that some small changes could change a lot of things.
Dak- no donuts but I just pulled some fresh carrots, sweet as apples they are.
It appears to be moving WNW.
Link
Jim Cantore
My friends in the Windward Islands are very aware what is coming at them. Still expecting #Emily sometime soon. Impacts unavoidable.
That wave split from the invest so, unlikely, but possible.
That swath, does convince me slightly more, although I would put money on the SW side being open slightly.
He has trollish behavior but thhat's because he's obsessed in observing waves. So don't blame him for trollish behavior.
Its not official obviously, but it will be once recon get out there. Just covering all the bases!:-)
As of the last couple of TPW frames, there is a dry notch on the southwest side of the storm that hasn't closed off yet.
And just because they're showing it means you automatically believe it?
Is it "Laplacian" or "Leplacian"? And without divulging any trade secrets, can you kindly explain in brief how each of them are initialized, which data set(s) they use for input, any special parameters they require, any academic papers that have been written about them, etc.? Just curious... I've no reason to doubt you, but the other tropical forecast models have taken years to develop, and they're still being tweaked, so it's hard to imagine how a model that is so experimental that is has absolutely no presence on the internet could possibly be operational in just two or three years. The HWRF took five years to get to that point, and I was under the impression that was PDQ...
TIA.
More like minus Dennis, Katrina, Rita, Stan, and Wilma... It should be an interesting season indeed!
maybe, just maybe the NHC knows more than you?
Forgive me, if I sound like Jason, but the wave that split off from 91L, looks like it could form into a tropical storm, perhaps recon will have a fish inside that as well.
Also, that wave looks pretty impressive for something that just made the jump to water.
The elongated nature and the wave axis running out ahead of the COC thru a wrench in officially naming this system this morning I believe by the NHC. But for the sake of warning the Islands they should of put a TD status on it this morning, but I guess they want to make sure and wait until recon is out in it.
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