Not a trace of Don; What's next?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:41 PM GMT on July 30, 2011

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Don is dead

Tropical Storm Don, the fourth named storm of the 2011 season, made landfall near Baffin Bay, Texas yesterday evening around 10pm CDT in less-than-grand fashion. The storm was looking very weak for the 24 hours before landfall, but fizzled rapidly after landfall, and by early Saturday morning, there was barely a trace of the storm to show that it even existed in the first place.

NHC Hurricane Specialist Eric Blake probably said it best in this mornings 5am EDT discussion on the storm:

THE DON IS DEAD. THE CYCLONE LITERALLY EVAPORATED OVER TEXAS ABOUT
AS FAST AS I HAVE EVER SEEN WITHOUT MOUNTAINS INVOLVED. DON HAS NO
CONVECTION...MEAGER RAINFALL...AND ONLY A SLIGHT SIGNATURE IN
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR DATA. THEREFORE...THIS IS THE LAST
ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM.


Figure 1. Total precipitation accumulation for the storm, estimated by radar.

The heaviest rainfall was falling south of the storm's center yesterday, so it wasn't surprising that Brownsville saw the most rain, 0.63 inches. KBRO also recorded 18 mph wind gusts. But to the north of the center, where many of the media were located, not a drop of rain fell. Corpus Christi saw zero inches of rain, but did record gale-force wind gusts (39 mph). Harlingen, near Baffin Bay, and close to where the center made landfall, saw 0.20 inches of rain and 18 mph wind gusts. This storm did very, very little to relieve any drought conditions in Southern Texas. And so it continues.

What's next: Invest 91L continues to impress

Invest 91L, which is located near 12°N 48°W in the central Atlantic, continues to impress today, and has shown signs of more organization over the past 24 hours. 91L will probably develop into a tropical cyclone before it reaches the Lesser Antilles, so residents of these islands should remain watchful and prepared. Satellite loops show not only organized thunderstorm activity, but also the makings of a surface circulation. Something this wave has working against it right now is dry air—there's a large mass of Saharan air on the north and east sides of the system, which could at least prevent significant intensification. Also, University of Wisconsin CIMSS analysis shows some strong wind shear (30-40 knots) to the north of the wave. However, I don't expect this to prevent development of the wave. Wind shear out ahead of the system is relatively low (5-15 knots). Moisture is plenty high within the system, and sea surface temperatures are warm and toasty (28°C+) and will only get warmer as 91L moves west into the Caribbean.


Figure 2. Infrared satellite of invest 91L taken at 1:15pm EDT today.

Forecast for 91L
Most of the reliable forecast models (GFS, CMC, FIM, and the ECMWF) have come to agree that 91L will develop, however, they differ on how long-lived that will be. Some of the models are suggesting it will be a short-lived tropical cyclone, not making it out of the Caribbean alive, and some suggest that it will hold together and intensify as it moves north of the Caribbean islands. The forecast track for the system will most likely be to the northwest through the Caribbean, at which point it will take a northeast turn near the Bahamas, never reaching the U.S. coast. HWRF agrees with this track (and also brings the system to category 2 strength by August 3rd). However, there is still some uncertainty that the system could track west, south of the Caribbean islands, and potentially into the Gulf of Mexico. However, none of the models that suggest this solution actually show that the wave will be a tropical cyclone at that point.

The National Hurricane Center is giving this wave an 80% chance of developing into at least Tropical Depression Five over the next 48 hours. Chances are we will see Emily out of this system. A Hurricane Hunter mission is scheduled for tomorrow at 2pm EDT, but I wouldn't be totally surprised to see them call this system this evening, given the threat to the Lesser Antilles.

Watching a northwest Caribbean disturbance

A broad area of disturbed weather is producing some heavy thunderstorms in the northwest Caribbean, southeast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Little to no low-level circulation exists with this feature, and none of the models are picking up on it. The Hurricane Center has "blobbed" this item (as I like to say) with a "near 0%" chance of developing over the next 48 hours. This disturbance could cause major flooding in the region given the amount of thunderstorm activity, and predictability for systems like this (potential Bay of Cempeche tropical cyclones) is very low. Models have a short lead time on development, and they spin up very fast once they enter the Bay of Campeche given the favorable topography of the land surrounding it. The difference between this system, though, and one like Arlene, is that there is very, very little low level circulation already present. Pre-Arlene was a bit more organized before it crossed the Yucatan, and so it's hard to imagine that this disturbance will be able to hold together, should it get that far.

If 91L develops, I'll be back tomorrow with a post.

Angela

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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Taz, to many people English is a second language and it is easier to get their point across if they speak in their native language. The rules of the road do not say anything about speaking in Spanish.



but still we have a storm out there ant many of us are looking for info that evere one can read
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115235
Quoting angiest:
Ahh, I see we have people still discussing models that apparently only one or two people on the blog have heard of, and the Google knows nothing about.

Personally, I put more faith in the WAG, or the more formal variant, the SWAG, model.


Started last night. Some super secret models. ;)
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
Quoting Tazmanian:
guys this is not A Spanish blog and your wasting blog space if you guys want too do this go too your own blog not on the main blog or you be reported all so the ones that are talking in Spanish whats plzs get back on the show here with 91L



When using Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself. Please do not engage in personal attacks or bickering. Material not conforming to these standards should be flagged with the button and ignored.

Rules of the Road %u2014 How to ignore a blogger
During active periods of hurricane season, these rules will be strictly enforced. Violations will be met with a minimum 24 hour ban.


Taz, this blog is not just for English users only. Some Spanish speakers do come on here too and know little English, so it's very convenient that someone here who knows how to speak Spanish can relay information to the Spanish speaking blogger.

Quoting bradbarry27:


So I take it everyone here speaks spanish but me then? I think its best if the most common laguage is spoken here so that everyone understands.


Please read above comment.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TX2FL:


Yay Nascar!

On another note, this season is starting weird. Would be some crazy shizz if a storm hit Miami at the end of November...Championship weekend at Homestead would be interesting.


It would be interesting if my boy Denny Hamlin can win the championship after loosing to mr.predictable when it comes to the chase last year.
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Quoting lovemamatus:
I know Emily is headed to Wilmington....is Franklin a threat to Eastern Europe?


That's what we've thought with the last 5 storms that are on that general track.

Never panned out.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I see the GFS shows ?Emily? close to florida before re curving out....could be a trial run storm for whats to come later in the season that may not recurve out..
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4290. jonelu
Quoting Seflhurricane:
yo tambien hablo espanol soy cubano

Pais Vasco, España aqui...pero vivo en SE FL
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Quoting Tazmanian:
guys this is not A Spanish blog and your wasting blog space if you guys want too do this go too your own blog not on the main blog or you be reported all so the ones that are talking in Spanish whats plzs get back on the show here with 91L



When using Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself. Please do not engage in personal attacks or bickering. Material not conforming to these standards should be flagged with the button and ignored.

Rules of the Road %u2014 How to ignore a blogger
During active periods of hurricane season, these rules will be strictly enforced. Violations will be met with a minimum 24 hour ban.


No problem with me, but where in Dr. Masters rules says it has to be in English? If a blogger wants to discuss weather matters, can he do that in Spanish? Or in German, Dutch, etc.?
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Quoting Levi32:
12z UKMET has a substantially stronger 500mb ridge over the western Atlantic at 144-hr. The 588dm height line comes off at North Carolina on the GFS and CMC at the same time frame, but it's farther north here. The Texas ridge also leaves the ranch a bit on the UKMET. The storm still looks like it will recurve east of the U.S. on the run, but it is interesting to see the stronger ridge and more zonal flow over New England.



Lol.
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4286. j2008
Quoting nigel20:
Good evening everyone, Eugene is looking pretty good and 91l is trying to consolidate.

Eugene should be at 50-60 MPH at next update, and 91L probably will stay at 100% but it is possible they may upgrade it to TD 5 or TS Emily. ¿Por qúe todos hablan español?
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4284. nigel20
It seems if 91l is trying to absorb the competing circulation.
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4282. bappit
Quoting bradbarry27:


So I take it everyone here speaks spanish but me then? I think its best if the most common laguage is spoken here so that everyone understands.

Use Google translate. Not perfect but serviceable
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:
guys this is not A Spanish blog and your wasting blog space if you guys want too do this go too your own blog not on the main blog or you be reported all so the ones that are talking in Spanish whats plzs get back on the show here with 91L



When using Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself. Please do not engage in personal attacks or bickering. Material not conforming to these standards should be flagged with the button and ignored.

Rules of the Road — How to ignore a blogger
During active periods of hurricane season, these rules will be strictly enforced. Violations will be met with a minimum 24 hour ban.
Taz, to many people English is a second language and it is easier to get their point across if they speak in their native language. The rules of the road do not say anything about speaking in Spanish.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting sunlinepr:


Keeper, por lo general tienes animaciones de alta definicion, excelentes.... que punto es 55w 15n?


Hey Taz it looks like they are talking about 91L


So they are on Topic ....



Taco :o)
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4277. TX2FL
Quoting DFWjc:


Boogety Boogety Boogety!


Yay Nascar!

On another note, this season is starting weird. Would be some crazy shizz if a storm hit Miami at the end of November...Championship weekend at Homestead would be interesting.
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4276. scott39
I hink tay aht tay 1L 9ay ill way ake tay ime tay o tay onsolidate cay.
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test
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Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
This blog is not English only. There is a system about to affect a predominantly Spanish population.



So I take it everyone here speaks spanish but me then? I think its best if the most common laguage is spoken here so that everyone understands.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
4273. DFWjc
Quoting Tazmanian:
where going too see 5,000 commets soon lol


When using Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself. Please do not engage in personal attacks or bickering. Material not conforming to these standards should be flagged with the button and ignored.

Rules of the Road — How to ignore a blogger
During active periods of hurricane season, these rules will be strictly enforced. Violations will be met with a minimum 24 hour ban.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting twincomanche:
Who almost all speak Enlish.
so watch and learn...
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 248
Quoting Tazmanian:
guys this is not A Spanish blog and your wasting blog space if you guys want too do this go too your own blog not on the main blog or you be reported all so the ones that are talking in Spanish whats plzs get back on the show here with 91L



When using Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself. Please do not engage in personal attacks or bickering. Material not conforming to these standards should be flagged with the button and ignored.

Rules of the Road — How to ignore a blogger
During active periods of hurricane season, these rules will be strictly enforced. Violations will be met with a minimum 24 hour ban.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting taco2me61:


Not Much it is still 91L :o)


Taco :o)

:P
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5690
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Good evening.
What did I miss on 91L?


Not Much it is still 91L :o)


Taco :o)
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Bagyo Kabayan puntaman ng Shanghai!
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4265. angiest
Ahh, I see we have people still discussing models that apparently only one or two people on the blog have heard of, and the Google knows nothing about.

Personally, I put more faith in the WAG, or the more formal variant, the SWAG, model.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
4264. nigel20
Good evening everyone, Eugene is looking pretty good and 91l is trying to consolidate.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good evening.
What did I miss on 91L?
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5690
Quoting scott39:
I knew I should have taken Spanish in School.


Although knowing some French does help get the jist of Spanish.
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Quoting scott39:
Nothing yet.


Holy Smokes you did miss out on this one....
It looks like it went right around you....

Quoting msgambler:
Was trying to get bad by the Island a bit ago but I think it went up your way instead.

Well with all due respect you could have kept this one with you LOL :o)

Taco :o)
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4257. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
parece que el área de 55w 15n será el punto de ver
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54353
4255. help4u
Agree Taz!Thanks!
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4253. Dakster
Patrap serving up the crow are we?
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.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.