Not a trace of Don; What's next?
Don is dead
Tropical Storm Don, the fourth named storm of the 2011 season, made landfall near Baffin Bay, Texas yesterday evening around 10pm CDT in less-than-grand fashion. The storm was looking very weak for the 24 hours before landfall, but fizzled rapidly after landfall, and by early Saturday morning, there was barely a trace of the storm to show that it even existed in the first place.
NHC Hurricane Specialist Eric Blake probably said it best in this mornings 5am EDT discussion on the storm:
THE DON IS DEAD. THE CYCLONE LITERALLY EVAPORATED OVER TEXAS ABOUT
AS FAST AS I HAVE EVER SEEN WITHOUT MOUNTAINS INVOLVED. DON HAS NO
CONVECTION...MEAGER RAINFALL...AND ONLY A SLIGHT SIGNATURE IN
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR DATA. THEREFORE...THIS IS THE LAST
ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM.
Figure 1. Total precipitation accumulation for the storm, estimated by radar.
The heaviest rainfall was falling south of the storm's center yesterday, so it wasn't surprising that Brownsville saw the most rain, 0.63 inches. KBRO also recorded 18 mph wind gusts. But to the north of the center, where many of the media were located, not a drop of rain fell. Corpus Christi saw zero inches of rain, but did record gale-force wind gusts (39 mph). Harlingen, near Baffin Bay, and close to where the center made landfall, saw 0.20 inches of rain and 18 mph wind gusts. This storm did very, very little to relieve any drought conditions in Southern Texas. And so it continues.
What's next: Invest 91L continues to impress
Invest 91L, which is located near 12°N 48°W in the central Atlantic, continues to impress today, and has shown signs of more organization over the past 24 hours. 91L will probably develop into a tropical cyclone before it reaches the Lesser Antilles, so residents of these islands should remain watchful and prepared. Satellite loops show not only organized thunderstorm activity, but also the makings of a surface circulation. Something this wave has working against it right now is dry air—there's a large mass of Saharan air on the north and east sides of the system, which could at least prevent significant intensification. Also, University of Wisconsin CIMSS analysis shows some strong wind shear (30-40 knots) to the north of the wave. However, I don't expect this to prevent development of the wave. Wind shear out ahead of the system is relatively low (5-15 knots). Moisture is plenty high within the system, and sea surface temperatures are warm and toasty (28°C+) and will only get warmer as 91L moves west into the Caribbean.
Figure 2. Infrared satellite of invest 91L taken at 1:15pm EDT today.
Forecast for 91L
Most of the reliable forecast models (GFS, CMC, FIM, and the ECMWF) have come to agree that 91L will develop, however, they differ on how long-lived that will be. Some of the models are suggesting it will be a short-lived tropical cyclone, not making it out of the Caribbean alive, and some suggest that it will hold together and intensify as it moves north of the Caribbean islands. The forecast track for the system will most likely be to the northwest through the Caribbean, at which point it will take a northeast turn near the Bahamas, never reaching the U.S. coast. HWRF agrees with this track (and also brings the system to category 2 strength by August 3rd). However, there is still some uncertainty that the system could track west, south of the Caribbean islands, and potentially into the Gulf of Mexico. However, none of the models that suggest this solution actually show that the wave will be a tropical cyclone at that point.
The National Hurricane Center is giving this wave an 80% chance of developing into at least Tropical Depression Five over the next 48 hours. Chances are we will see Emily out of this system. A Hurricane Hunter mission is scheduled for tomorrow at 2pm EDT, but I wouldn't be totally surprised to see them call this system this evening, given the threat to the Lesser Antilles.
Watching a northwest Caribbean disturbance
A broad area of disturbed weather is producing some heavy thunderstorms in the northwest Caribbean, southeast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Little to no low-level circulation exists with this feature, and none of the models are picking up on it. The Hurricane Center has "blobbed" this item (as I like to say) with a "near 0%" chance of developing over the next 48 hours. This disturbance could cause major flooding in the region given the amount of thunderstorm activity, and predictability for systems like this (potential Bay of Cempeche tropical cyclones) is very low. Models have a short lead time on development, and they spin up very fast once they enter the Bay of Campeche given the favorable topography of the land surrounding it. The difference between this system, though, and one like Arlene, is that there is very, very little low level circulation already present. Pre-Arlene was a bit more organized before it crossed the Yucatan, and so it's hard to imagine that this disturbance will be able to hold together, should it get that far.
If 91L develops, I'll be back tomorrow with a post.
Angela
Reader Comments
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that would not be good if it stalled
What?! That's exactly what we DON'T need!
Plan of the Day
000
NOUS42 KNHC 301630
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1230 PM EDT SAT 30 JULY 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 31/1100Z JULY TO 01/1100Z AUGUST 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-060
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (CENTRAL ATLANTIC)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 31/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01EEA INVEST
C. 31/1530Z
D. 14.5N 56.0W
E. 31/1730Z TO 31/2330Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA 49
A. 01/0000Z
B. NOAA9 02EEA SURV
C. 31/1730Z
D. NA
E. NA
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT
FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 71
A. 01/0600Z,1200Z
B. AFXXX 0305A CYCLONE
C. 01/0400Z
D. 15.2N 58.1W
E. 01/0530Z TO 01/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,0000 FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
B. POSSIBLE NOAA G-IV MISSION FOR 02/0000Z.
3. REMARKS:
A. IF SYSTEM DOES NOT DEVELOP, FLIGHT THREE
WILL BECOME A 01/1200Z INVEST MISSION.
not good not good at all all so where the F storm
lol! i think its funny too! why would anyone be offended by that? if they are then thats too bad for them.
pat that was last update on sat the 30th so there for thats not for today
I think its still going to recurve out, although farther south and west. Let's see, looks like it will be close.
here it is at 111 hrs.
They both base there.
456 do you think the wave a head of 91L could be come some in?
FL will need too watch this
posted this last night
from their facebook page
Hurricane Hunters deployed to St. Croix today to begin flying the low pressure system 900 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. From the NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center: ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A 80% OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES W-NW AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
Trough seems a lot weaker. Ridging is stronger. This isn't the same scenario the GFS has been continuously showing.
126 hours:
It's already much farther south and west than previous runs..
thats old info
The second blob is following on directly behind and I don't see why it wouldn't follow the same track as the first blob. This means it's on course to enter the Caribbean well south of Puerto Rico.
The models couldn't be that far out, could they?
^132 hours
That would not be good.
Same here
XL/XX/INV91
MARK
XX/XX
holy we mother of god
That wave is insignificant at this point. If 91L does catch up to it, it may aid by giving the system added energy. 91L is too organize and in close proximity for the wave to develop as a seperate entity at the moment.
+1 agree with that. Good to know the local NWS has issued that advisory. Once this get's classified, it won't be long before it's approaching the eastern caribbean. 91L slowing down should help it out to.
Just like the earlier 0z CMC.
he said it was old and that he posted it last night.
I was thinking more like Hugo.
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