Tropical Storm Emily remains weak with roadblocks ahead
Tropical Storm Emily took a moment to pause this morning, with no forward motion to speak of in the 11am EDT advisory from the National Hurricane Center, who say Emily might have been reorganizing. Emily eventually picked up some speed, and was moving west at 12 mph with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph in the 2pm EDT advisory. Satellite loops suggest that the storm has improved since yesterday, with strong thunderstorm activity surrounding the center of circulation accompanied by moderately strong outflow at higher levels. Recent satellite estimates of circulation show some consolidation at low levels (850mb), but weak circulation at higher levels (500mb). Despite the organized presentation on satellite, Hurricane Hunters found a generally disorganized storm this morning, with multiple potential centers. The lowest pressure that the Hunters found was 1007mb. Wind shear remains strong to the north of the storm, and this feature extends west across Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Dry air, which has been lingering to the north of the system for the past few days, has begun to wrap around the northwest side of the storm. This, along with high wind shear along its potential track, could delay or prevent further intensification over the life of the storm. Another Hurricane Hunter mission is on its way to Emily now.
Figure 1. Visible satellite of Tropical Storm Emily at 1pm EDT.
Forecast for Tropical Storm Emily
The official forecast for Emily is a track toward the west-northwest over the next day and a half, after which it will make a turn to the northwest, and by Saturday, to the north. Although the National Hurricane Center has been shifting the forecast track to the east over the past few advisories, the U.S. coastline is still within the cone of uncertainty, and if we know something about this storm, it's that the forecast is uncertain. The CMC continues to be the western boundary of the model track forecasts, bringing Emily over Cuba and into the far eastern Gulf of Mexico. Today, on the eastern boundary of potential tracks fall the HWRF and the GFDL, which forecast Emily to cross over Hispaniola on a north-northwest trajectory, skirting the eastern edge of the Bahamas, and turning northeast before ever making connection with the U.S. coast. The Hurricane Center's official track follows the model consensus, and is the most likely track. Today, Emily is not forecast to strengthen into a hurricane within the next five days by the National Hurricane Center nor most of the models. Consensus seems to be that the storm will max out at a moderate to strong tropical cyclone, but this is assuming the storm can survive the wrath of Hispaniola.
Surviving Hispaniola
Hispaniola is somewhat notorious for being a major disruptor to tropical cyclones that dare cross over it. Since 1950, around two dozen tropical cyclones have crossed Hispaniola near where the National Hurricane Center is forecasting that Emily will pass over. A handful of these cyclones were of similar intensity with a track that was similar to Emily's forecast by various models, and although some went on to intensify (the warm Gulf of Mexico waters can be quite healing) many were fatally disrupted by the second largest island in the Caribbean.
Figure 2. Tropical cyclones that have crossed Hispaniola since 1950 (plotted using the NOAA Historical Hurricane Tracker).
Fay of 2008 developed in the Mona Passage on August 15th as a tropical storm. After a rough track westward over the length of Hispaniola, Fay emerged back into open water with little to no organized circulation, but managed to survive, and skirted the southern coast of Cuba for the next couple of days before turning north toward Florida. Many remember 2008's Fay as the storm that intensified and developed an eye-like feature over Florida after making landfall.
Cindy of 1993 was not as lucky in a battle with Hispaniola. Cindy developed as a tropical depression just east of the Lesser Antilles, and over the course of two days, tracked west-northwest through the Caribbean toward Hispaniola, strengthening into a tropical storm and reaching peak intensity just before landfall. Almost immediately upon landfall in the Dominican Republic, Tropical Storm Cindy deteriorated and the National Hurricane Center stopped issuing advisories on the system.
Emily of 1987 developed well east of the Lesser Antilles in late September and tracked northwest into the Caribbean, where it underwent a period of rapid intensification and was upgraded to a hurricane and then a major hurricane (category 3) just before landfall in the Dominican Republic. As the hurricane approached Hispaniola, it began deteriorating, and within 12 hours of landfall, Emily had weakened to a tropical storm and never regained its strength. Emily then took a turn to the northeast and tracked into the open Atlantic. Hurricane Katie of 1955 had a similar fate.
Angela
Reader Comments
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Look at post 826 lol.
Plain as day.
someone else said PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE MINIMAL
Its ironic that the simple models seem to have a better grasp on Emily then the dynamic models.
It may be very well due to Emily's very disorganized structure.
Link
It's filed right after the McDonalds twoallbeefpattiesspecialsaucelettucecheesepickleso nasesameseedbun Model
Very good looking storm, i see heavy convection is starting to refire.
Don't know about anyone else but the image Patrap showed (post 859), looks like she is close to RI.
what does that mean? where is the weakness?
The weakness still looks north of Cuba.
I do see the high pressure setting in and the gap or trof between the two highs - I guess this has changed and therefore the models are changing too?
The blog started in 2005, but one could become a paid member in years prior to that.
When do you think we will know if this will make a US landfall? I don't wanna wait too long to prepare...
Actually that chart seems to say a lot. IF Emily remains weak with little inertia, it will drift westward. IF it strengthens, the stronger it gets the more the poleward the pull and it'll shoot the gap that's north of there. Just have to wait and see how she develops.
don't be a quitter
Well, if I was at the NHC, I would keep the center of the forecast slightly west of the model consensus. The simple models have a better grip on Emily right now.
TROPICAL STORM EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
500 PM AST TUE AUG 02 2011
...EMILY A LITTLE STRONGER...BUT STILL NOT WELL ORGANIZED...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 65.4W
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM SSE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
Don't rely too heavily on the models, they mostly missed our A-D storms. Some signs that the tropical wave behind Emily may try to spin up in a few days, GFS hinted at it on and off a little.
Perhaps. We will have to see if the "eye" continues to look like one and if it does then we DO have an eye.
If I was living in a tent, this would be a threat far greater than if I was living in a dwelling. I pray for the people of Haiti. This is a deadly serious situation for them.
Pretty sure they all have the same, and they call it a "mission".
*tap, tap, tap*
and 35W , 10N
Link
Emily Floater - Visible Loop
Zoom, Boxes and Tropical Points active
You mean the MacTavish who apparently has never even published a masters or doctoral thesis, yes?
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