Tropical Storm Emily remains weak with roadblocks ahead
Tropical Storm Emily took a moment to pause this morning, with no forward motion to speak of in the 11am EDT advisory from the National Hurricane Center, who say Emily might have been reorganizing. Emily eventually picked up some speed, and was moving west at 12 mph with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph in the 2pm EDT advisory. Satellite loops suggest that the storm has improved since yesterday, with strong thunderstorm activity surrounding the center of circulation accompanied by moderately strong outflow at higher levels. Recent satellite estimates of circulation show some consolidation at low levels (850mb), but weak circulation at higher levels (500mb). Despite the organized presentation on satellite, Hurricane Hunters found a generally disorganized storm this morning, with multiple potential centers. The lowest pressure that the Hunters found was 1007mb. Wind shear remains strong to the north of the storm, and this feature extends west across Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Dry air, which has been lingering to the north of the system for the past few days, has begun to wrap around the northwest side of the storm. This, along with high wind shear along its potential track, could delay or prevent further intensification over the life of the storm. Another Hurricane Hunter mission is on its way to Emily now.
Figure 1. Visible satellite of Tropical Storm Emily at 1pm EDT.
Forecast for Tropical Storm Emily
The official forecast for Emily is a track toward the west-northwest over the next day and a half, after which it will make a turn to the northwest, and by Saturday, to the north. Although the National Hurricane Center has been shifting the forecast track to the east over the past few advisories, the U.S. coastline is still within the cone of uncertainty, and if we know something about this storm, it's that the forecast is uncertain. The CMC continues to be the western boundary of the model track forecasts, bringing Emily over Cuba and into the far eastern Gulf of Mexico. Today, on the eastern boundary of potential tracks fall the HWRF and the GFDL, which forecast Emily to cross over Hispaniola on a north-northwest trajectory, skirting the eastern edge of the Bahamas, and turning northeast before ever making connection with the U.S. coast. The Hurricane Center's official track follows the model consensus, and is the most likely track. Today, Emily is not forecast to strengthen into a hurricane within the next five days by the National Hurricane Center nor most of the models. Consensus seems to be that the storm will max out at a moderate to strong tropical cyclone, but this is assuming the storm can survive the wrath of Hispaniola.
Surviving Hispaniola
Hispaniola is somewhat notorious for being a major disruptor to tropical cyclones that dare cross over it. Since 1950, around two dozen tropical cyclones have crossed Hispaniola near where the National Hurricane Center is forecasting that Emily will pass over. A handful of these cyclones were of similar intensity with a track that was similar to Emily's forecast by various models, and although some went on to intensify (the warm Gulf of Mexico waters can be quite healing) many were fatally disrupted by the second largest island in the Caribbean.
Figure 2. Tropical cyclones that have crossed Hispaniola since 1950 (plotted using the NOAA Historical Hurricane Tracker).
Fay of 2008 developed in the Mona Passage on August 15th as a tropical storm. After a rough track westward over the length of Hispaniola, Fay emerged back into open water with little to no organized circulation, but managed to survive, and skirted the southern coast of Cuba for the next couple of days before turning north toward Florida. Many remember 2008's Fay as the storm that intensified and developed an eye-like feature over Florida after making landfall.
Cindy of 1993 was not as lucky in a battle with Hispaniola. Cindy developed as a tropical depression just east of the Lesser Antilles, and over the course of two days, tracked west-northwest through the Caribbean toward Hispaniola, strengthening into a tropical storm and reaching peak intensity just before landfall. Almost immediately upon landfall in the Dominican Republic, Tropical Storm Cindy deteriorated and the National Hurricane Center stopped issuing advisories on the system.
Emily of 1987 developed well east of the Lesser Antilles in late September and tracked northwest into the Caribbean, where it underwent a period of rapid intensification and was upgraded to a hurricane and then a major hurricane (category 3) just before landfall in the Dominican Republic. As the hurricane approached Hispaniola, it began deteriorating, and within 12 hours of landfall, Emily had weakened to a tropical storm and never regained its strength. Emily then took a turn to the northeast and tracked into the open Atlantic. Hurricane Katie of 1955 had a similar fate.
Angela
Reader Comments
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this one thing the rader from PR is too far a way yet too tell LOL
look at the radar ike posted. no eye wall.
Emily learning the Dance.
Thanks. One more question and thanks in advance, you see emily moving toward the west or moving to west north west?
i dace with here
answered by Skye
this is what happens when you stop midway through a post
:|
Without recon to give us a decent center position it's hard to tell, but it looks closer to WNW than W.
Notice how the curve is must farther north? each advisory takes it up about 50 more miles..I dont think this is going to be a sharp turn
One storm, I spent two hours trying to find a store that had kitty litter. Try to keep extras all the time during hurricane season, cause stinky kitty litter is the pits.
could be some in down the rd
Ummm...one will wake me at 3am for food emergency, the other will bring a baby bird through the cat door and put it near food bowl. Cat litter is a given for the same one that wakes me every night .... thanks for the reminder (ps...if you have kitties, try the aldi brand, sandy like and very scoopable and CHEAP) ...
That's actually just ITCZ convection. An actual tropical wave exists farther to the west, closer to 50W.
I think the visible pics were able to look through the thin veil of cirrus over the NW. Looks like the IR pics only register the cirrus.
LOL! for sure. Not panicking too much yet here in NE Florida just waiting to see more. keep it coming...
!!!!!!!lol!!!!!!!!
Looks like the lower 48 may avoid another one.
I didn't realize how much damage Tomas had wreaked elsewhere, even as a TD in the southern Caribbean... actually its impacts on Haiti were miraculously minor by comparison with other storms.
hmmm.... looking @ ur steering map, I was just thinking that's the best the opening's looked all day. Granted I pretty much missed the 2 - 6 p.m. period....
Under normal circumstances its bad...can NOT imagine under THOSE conditions! It was in high demand huh? :(
Stay safe!
And, T-nums going up: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/2011/adt/tex t/05L-list.txt
The storm is not healthy, the outflow to the north and east is almost non-existent. The main are of convedtion is shrinking and there are arc clouds showing that Emily is sucking in dry air.
Thanks for the info. Many people here in PR are waiting for emily effects to take on the island. There still also many people who are seeing the delay of Emily effects as if the storm effects are not going to have any effects on us.
It's starting. See 1577.
you better get em on the phone and let em know
Can remember when they had Ivan projected to hit the W. Coast of FL, had just been through Charley in Port Charlotte, and people started spreading rumors about gas, so all the stations ran out. I ran out of gas after lookin at almost every station in town. This was after Frances and just before Jeanne. Was a little frustrated at the time needless to say.
FXUS62 KMFL 022301
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
701 PM EDT TUE AUG 2 2011
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 528 PM EDT TUE AUG 2 2011/
UPDATE...
THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS MOVED
THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK OF EMILY TO THE EAST. THIS HAS CONFINED THE
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EAST OF THE CWA ATLANTIC WATERS FOR
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE EASTERN
PORTION OF SOUTH FLORIDA INCLUDING THE ATLANTIC AND BISCAYNE BAY
WATERS ARE STILL WITHIN THE CONE OF UNCERTAINTY. PEOPLE STILL
NEED TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON TROPICAL STORM EMILY.
The more Emily strengthens, the more it tends to pull in dry air. It is caught in a negative feedback loop. Reminds me of how Don rained its butt off just offshore from Brownsville then evaporated. Heck knows there's lots of dry air over Texas. Maybe not as much dry air over by Emily, but it is there.
I thought I saw a post that said the next recon was canceled and we have to wait. So we just have to watch the pictures.
Ahh, you are right, my bad LOL! he is still making screen name after name WOW
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