High wind shear disrupts Emily as it approaches Hispaniola
In defiance to its forecast, Tropical Storm Emily continues to move due west this morning, and we wonder just how far west it will get before turning toward Hispaniola. Recent Hurricane Hunter missions have shown that Emily is still very poorly organized, and although the center of circulation is plainly obvious on satellite imagery, it's only because it is so displaced from the thunderstorm activity. Wind shear around the storm is just high enough, around 20 knots out of the west, to push the upper levels of circulation and thunderstorm activity to the east, exposing the surface low. In order for tropical cyclones to intensify (or, continue to exist at all), they need to be vertically stacked and standing straight up in the atmosphere. Right now, Emily is tilting to the east. This is bad news for the organization of the storm, and something that Emily will have to work hard at recovering from. In addition to the wind shear, dry air continues to wrap around the north and west of the storm. This isn't as critical as unfavorable wind shear, but it's not helping to create new thunderstorm activity. The strongest winds of 50 mph were found to the north and east of the center this morning, and Emily is not expected to intensify before making landfall in Hispaniola, which is forecast for tonight. The HWRF is forecasting the strongest precipitation to fall on the northeast side of the storm as is passes over Hispaniola. This is relatively good news for Haiti, but the country could still receive up to 5 inches of rain, and since the models have been trending the track west over the past couple of runs, it's something to watch closely. No matter the scenario, Emily is expected to produce heavy rains, flash flooding, and mudslides in Haiti and the Dominican Republic, which are all to common on the mountainous island.
Figure 1. Forecast precipitation accumulation from the HWRF high resolution model's 6Z (2am EDT) run. The color contour scale is in inches. The coastlines are a thin, red line. The Dominican Republic is expected to get the most rain out of Emily. You can view the HWRF model runs on Wundermap.
Forecast for Tropical Storm Emily
The future of Emily remains uncertain, and even the National Hurricane Center is using the "if" word when forecasting Emily's track after crossing Hispaniola. "If" it makes it north of Hispaniola. Over the past couple of runs, the models have been trending their forecast tracks back to the west, most likely because Emily has remained on a westward track longer than expected. This is expected—the longer Emily remains shallow and unorganized, the longer it will track west. It will need to build up taller in the atmosphere to be influenced by the steering winds that can push it north. Given its westward track, today's models are likely closer to reality than what we've seen in the past couple of days. This morning, the CMC, UKMET, and HWRF models send Emily on a northwest track to Florida. This is a change from the past couple of days for the HWRF, but the CMC and UKMET have consistently been the western boundary of model consensus. THE GFDL has also taken a huge swing to the west, and now suggests it will come very close to a southeast Florida landfall. The ECMWF and GFS continue to forecast that Emily will take a harder turn north through the Bahamas, not reaching the Florida coast.
Figure 2. Satellite image of Tropical Storm Emily at 11:15am EDT. The surface circulation is visible to the west of the strongest thunderstorm activity.
Consensus of the models falls between the HWRF/GFDL solution and the ECMWF/GFS solution, and the National Hurricane Center continues to use the consensus for the official track forecast, which calls for Emily to take a turn to the northwest and make landfall in Hispaniola this afternoon, after which continuing northwest until Saturday morning when it's between the island of Grand Bahama and West Palm Beach, Florida. At this point, they expect the storm to jog north and then northeast.
Emily's intensity forecast continues highly dependent on the track it takes. Assuming it can survive the wrath of Hispaniola, Emily will enter slightly more favorable environmental conditions to the north of the islands. This is what the Hurricane Center is forecasting, although they remain cautious. There is a very good chance that, if Emily does turn northwest today, it will not be able to reorganize after crossing Hispaniola. If it does maintain organization, Emily could reach hurricane strength as it moves northeast out to the open Atlantic. The other scenario at this point is that the storm keeps moving west, which will be detrimental to its orgnization. The models that track Emily into the far eastern Gulf of Mexico don't suggest any reintensification—the CMC fizzles the system below tropical storm strength quickly, probably because of the long track over Cuba it would have to take. In any case, Emily remains a threat most certainly to Hispaniola, and potentially to Florida.
I'm planning a quick update later this afternoon/evening for an update on new model runs, and potential Hispaniola landfall.
Angela
Reader Comments
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I think it was 5%.
(~ 29.63 inHg)
Is this the lowest pressure they have found?
Think this track will pan out, personally I highly doubt it!
Gasp.... you don't watch Max?
Three key words in my post were "that," "far," and "out." In the short-term, they may be quite reliable, but based on the way those models work, they are probably overdoing the late term NW component.
oh yes they know about the ridge
Indeed... now they're soon going to sample the area surrounding Emily.
Me either. I think further west and not as sharp a turn.
(The linked image will be updated continuously.)
But I still prefer John, lol, :P.
On occasion, LOL.
Yeah. In fact, when you look at it, most models that recurve it have it go over the Dominican Republic. Doesn't look like it's gonna landfall in the Dominican Republic right now..
From day one I said it was my gut feeling that this would recurve (but only after hitting the NE Caribbean first), so I'm rooting for that, but that might be in jeopardy.
Wish Gonzo would make a couple of E-W passes along 20-25N.
geez i need a new keyboard...
Statement as of 2:00 PM PDT on August 03, 2011
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...Eugene reaches category four intensity...
summary of 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...information
----------------------------------------------
location...16.0n 115.4w
about 595 mi...960 km SW of the southern tip of Baja California
maximum sustained winds...140 mph...220 km/h
present movement...WNW or 290 degrees at 14 mph...22 km/h
minimum central pressure...942 mb...27.82 inches
Anybody see the swirl in that blob in the BOC area? Is it a ULL?
They're not people, they're storms. They are influenced and steered by a complex combination of atmospheric conditions that change from day to day and week to week.
Coordinates: 16.8667N 70.5333W
Acft. Static Air Press: 842.4 mb (~ 24.88 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,540 meters (~ 5,052 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1003.3 mb (~ 29.63 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 345° at 5 knots (From the NNW at ~ 5.8 mph)
Air Temp: 21.5°C (~ 70.7°F)
Dew Pt: 7.3°C (~ 45.1°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 7 knots (~ 8.0 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 16 knots* (~ 18.4 mph*)
SFMR Rain Rate: 0 mm/hr* (~ 0 in/hr*)
(*) Denotes suspect data
This could be latest fix not sure!
I agree.
Sadly, it seems like some forget that lol
I totally agree!
Just completed 25N
Edit: Orginally posted wrong graphic
Some beta drift would appear to be all we got going on right now as far as any northward component to motion.
very impressive
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