Tropical Storm Emily stalls, remains a threat to Hispaniola
All afternoon, Tropical Storm Emily has remained on a westward track with maximum sustained winds of 50 mph. In the 8pm EDT update from the National Hurricane Center, the storm was nearly stationary, with no forward movement. The storm gained some thunderstorm activity over its center of circulation throughout the day, but remains sheared to the east. In order for tropical cyclones to intensify (or, continue to exist at all), they need to be vertically stacked and standing straight up in the atmosphere. Emily continues to be tilted east due to 20 knots of westerly wind shear, which is apparent on satellite and also in recent satellite analysis of upper-level circulation.
Emily's tropical storm-force winds extend 115 miles to the north and east of the center, and tropical storm conditions are probably already being felt in Hispaniola. Isolated rainfall amounts of up to 20 inches are expected on the eastern side of the storm. The longer Emily tracks west before making a turn to the northwest, the more likely it is that Haiti will see the heavier rainfall amounts. In any case, Emily is a serious threat for flash flooding and mudslides on the island of Hispaniola and eastern Cuba.
Figure 1. MODIS satellite imagery from earlier today, plotted using NASA's new Rapid Response Web Mapping Service.
Forecast for Tropical Storm Emily
The forecast for Emily remains similar to this morning's update, with a slight shift to the east in track. The National Hurricane Center forecasts that the storm will make landfall in Haiti overnight tonight or early tomorrow as a tropical storm. After that, it will continue on a track to the northwest until Saturday, when it will turn to the northeast and out to sea. This is all assuming Emily makes the turn to the northwest over the next 12 hours.
This afternoon the HWRF and GFDL shifted their forecast track slightly to the east away from the Florida coast. Consensus shifted this way as well, and that change is also present in the official forecast track. As the storm moves north of Hispaniola and Cuba, environmental conditions will become more favorable, and the storm could gain some organization. But this is very hard to predict since Emily hasn't actually made a turn to the northwest, yet. Furthermore, the longer Emily tracks to the west, the more of a threat it becomes to the Florida coast.
Typhoon Muifa a landfall threat for China coast
Typhoon Muifa has sustained winds of 109 mph, with gusts up to 132 mph, and is a category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale. Muifa's concentric eyewalls are plainly visible on both infrared satellite imagery as well as radar, which is indicative of a mature, intense cyclone undergoing eyewall replacement cycles. Typhoon Muifa is expected to remain a category 2 with winds of at least 104 mph through mid-day Saturday, at which point it is forecast to intensify slightly to a category 3 as it approaches the China coast. As of this afternoon, Muifa is expected to make landfall south of Shanghai, near Zhoushan, Saturday afternoon or evening (local time). In addition to being a serious threat to all of the involved coastal cities, this is a particularly dangerous track for Shanghai and Hangzhou, since near-hurricane-strength winds will be out of the east, pushing water into the surrounding inlets. The forecast landfall location has been trending south along the coast, so it doesn't appear that China will be able to escape a Muifa landfall.
Figure 2. Infrared satellite imagery of Typhoon Muifa from August 3rd.
Dr. Carver will have an update later tonight should there be any interesting changes to Emily or the forecast. I'll be back tomorrow with another post.
Angela
Reader Comments
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HWRF
so bad -- and too funny
You are right, he would say, "hey ladies!"
Not RI, just rapid thunderstorm development, with a slightly higher surface wind, 55mph.
I bought a generator in '06...still in its original packaging. As for the shutters being spider free, I can't be sure...there is a huge squirrel wrapped in a weblike coccoon in the garage corner so I may take a shotgun just to be safe. Sitting through "Eight Legged Freaks" may pay dividends after all!
My opinion, the GFDL has been the best so far this season.
I actually liked him as a forecaster. He brought a lot of insight to this blog.
I wouldn't quite say craziness for any system, I was in Florida during Bonnie last year, and I spent the morning it made landfall in the mall. Granted, Bonnie was fairly pathetic, but it was still a named storm. For stronger ones though, they do take it very seriously, and some panic could be caused. You can hardly blame them though.
17 million in Florida, I believe you meant South Florida at 6 million
That was a spoof by a regular (forget name). The immediate next post was a "JK lol" from said spoofer.
Can see visible sign of that shear dropping off on the west side of the storm IR and Water Vapor loops...as well as a retreat of the dry air slowly to the northwest...both giving Em some breathing room
She has done a very good job in Dr. M's absence.
I don't have any good sites for Archives in the Wpac unfortunately. I'm not sure Shanghai has been hit by a Cat 3 typhoon in modern times. I could be totally wrong though, basically a guess...
Trying to make up her mind! Typical woman lol! no offense!
Quite a few people were saying "Emily can never go into the gulf because of the texas death high that will be sitting around for at least 5 days."
They were right. However, we're approaching the end of that window.
I would assume this is what the suite is seeing, but I'll defer to a more experienced caster for a better explanation.
Kind of like staring at the toilet/loo/WC (for our multinational audience)
Well now you have to start looking at the NAM and UKMET since all the other models keep curving northward. Time to start looking at those western model runs and throw out the ole "North turn" because Emily doesn't wanna turn. That is when you start disregarding the models saying she will turn in the next few hours and start looking at the NAM and UKMET (Ask yourself why they believe she is going to head west?)
If you believe the NAM than we have serious trouble cause Emily might just avoid land altogether until she reaches the western carib
That Lake Maracaibo thunderstorm cluster looks like it's being sucked in towards Emily right now.
Yes, significant shift west. The way it is going it will probably shift east on the next run.
Don't get her riled up LOL
But if you "were" to watch a stationary system... What Satellite format would you choose this time of night? I'd like to check in now and then but don't know exactly which too choose.
Thanks!
I know lol, just pointing it out. I do think Floridians take any word of a potential strong storm pretty seriously, though it's probably better that way.
Where has StormW been? I haven't been on the blog since last year and haven't seen him on the site.
Things, erm, happened.
That means Hispanola will be a lot more wet.
To determine where the center is I would run the shortwave loop ( IR2 ). If you want to see how the convection is building then the AVN loop or still image is the one to watch
A Bic lighter and a can of hairspray!
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