Tropical Storm Emily continues to threaten Haiti; More extreme heat in Central U.S.
Tropical Storm Emily remains unorganized this morning, and continues to linger just south of Haiti, near 17.3°N, 72.3°W. Emily is 90 miles south of Port au Prince, Haiti. Storm motion over the past 24 hours has been slow, varying between completely stopped and west to west-northwest at 5 mph. This motion (or lack thereof) is still something that the models aren't analyzing well. Satellite imagery shows that thunderstorm activity on the north side of Emily seems to be disrupted, possibly by the terrain of Hispaniola, but also potentially by the continued moderate shear to the north of the storm. Wind shear has weakened to the northwest of the storm in the past 24 hours, but it will probably not be enough to allow Emily to undergo any significant intensification. The layer of dry air that we've been talking about for the past few days has also all but dissipated to the west and north of the storm. As the National Hurricane Center has been forecasting, environmental conditions are becoming slightly more favorable for the storm. Satellite estimates of wind motion suggest that low level circulation in the storm has become very broad and extends north over Hispaniola, which indicates that there's potential for the storm to undergo a quick jump to the north, but overall the storm remains weak and this seems unlikely. Emily continues to be tilted to the east with height, but doesn't appear as sheared as yesterday morning.
Conditions in Hispaniola have surely deteriorated over the past 24 hours, however, thunderstorm activity appears to have weakened over the island this morning. Infrared satellite imagery shows that cloud tops have warmed in the past 6 hours on the north side of the storm, which means that strong thunderstorms are no longer building high into the atmosphere. High resolution model forecasts (see Figure 1) have continued to predict that the heaviest rain will fall to the east of the storm. The longer Emily tracks west without taking a significant turn to the northwest, the more likely it is that Haiti will see the most extreme rainfall in the storm. Overall, 6 to 12 inches of rain is expected to fall, with local amounts up to 20 inches possible in higher terrain. Flash floods and mudslides are a serious threat.
Figure 1. Forecast radar and sea level pressure from the 06Z (2am EDT) run of the HWRF high resolution model. While I think that the model was initialized poorly and doesn't accurately represent where the storm will travel over the next 24 hours, I do think that the precipitation field is accurate. The strongest rain and winds have been on the east and north sides of the storm over the past couple of days. If Emily continues to move west before taking a significant turn to the northwest, Haiti could receive the strongest impact from the storm.
Forecast for Tropical Storm Emily
Models continue to waver back and forth on Emily's forecast track. Yesterday evening, the HWRF model forecast Emily to cross over Hispaniola and undergoing a close encounter with the Florida coastline. Last night, the National Hurricane Center wrote that "if Emily does not begin its northwestward turn soon…a watch could be required for parts of southern Florida today." Since the storm appears to be moving slightly more to the north than west this morning, this doesn't look like it will be necessary, although the forecast remains very uncertain. In today's 06Z runs, both the HWRF and the GFDL are probably forecasting Emily to move too far north in the next 12 hours. Given the present direction and speed of the storm, it's hard to see these two models' forecasts coming to fruition. The official forecast track from the National Hurricane Center is a turn to the northwest over the next 6 to 12 hours, with landfall in Haiti happening this afternoon. Beyond that, they forecast Emily to stay on a northwest course through the Bahamas, where Emily could restrengthen a bit before making a turn to the northeast on Sunday, although they qualify this forecast with the fact that it's very uncertain, and that the global models dissipate Emily after crossing Hispaniola. The official forecast track does not have Emily making any landfall in Florida, but the Miami to West Palm Beach area is still within the cone of uncertainty.
Interestingly, the models that have done the best job at predicting the track of Emily thus far are the less relied-on statistical track models—those that don't take into account any current atmospheric dynamics. If Emily remains on a west to west-northwest track today, we cannot rule out that it cross over a larger area of Cuba, approaching the southeast portion of Florida. However, given the amount of land interaction in this potential track, the probability of Emily remaining a tropical cyclone in this scenario is low.
Figure 2. Satellite imagery of Tropical Storm Emily at 10:15am EDT. The strongest thunderstorm activity is now in the southern portion of the storm. Thunderstorms over Hispaniola appeared to weaken this morning.
Typhoon Muifa
Typhoon Muifa continues to be a category 2 typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Satellite imagery shows a well developed storm that is moving west-northwest. Over the next day, Muifa is expect to turn to the northwest as it approaches China. Today's track forecast is more north and east of yesterday's, with a brief landfall just north of Shanghai, potentially as a category 3.
Figure 3. MODIS satellite imagery of Typhoon Muifa from earlier today, plotted using NASA's new Rapid Response Web Mapping Service.
Central U.S. heatwave
The heat continues for the central U.S., where I've heard reports that local media in the region were canceling all of their outdoor shots because of the dangerous conditions. Here are some of yesterday's extreme temperatures, which were compiled by our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt:
Little Rock, Arkansas set an all-time record with 114°F (the old record was 112°F set in 1986). Fort Smith, Arkansas set an all time record of 115°F (the old record was 113°F set both Tuesday and previously in 1936).
State maximum air temperatures from Wednesday:
• Arkansas: 116° at Silver Hill (4° short of state all-time record)
• Oklahoma: 115° at Atoka
• Louisiana: 111° at Caney
• Texas: 111° at Fort Worth and Wichita Falls (that also had a record high minimum of 88° this morning)
• Missouri: 109° at Branson and Ava
The heat index is also at play in this heat wave; some incredible values recorded yesterday include 126° in Poplar Bluff, Missouri, 125° in Walnut Ridge, Arkansas, and 122° in Arkadelphia, Arkansas. The GFS continues to forecast heat index values around 120° in the lower Mississippi Valley through the weekend.
Angela
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 — Blog Index
They will continue to run the models...
Keeper I think we should develop a code where that image shows up full screen, and you have to bypass it to get on the blog. Make it impossible to miss haha.
They still show a cone when a storm dissipates and has a chance to regenerate. Here's Colin, 2010, for Example:
And it's also perhaps worth noting that he regenerated much before he was forecast to.
Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator)
Emily
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)
Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)
That's the way I see it. Around 72.3 and 19.4. Also the mid lev is in a hurry to get it. They can merge as soon as they get to the water. Now I'm leaving for work, check it at night. Good Afternoon wunder bloggers.
He was a weird storm...
Link
Billy!
Okinawa web cams
000
URNT15 KNHC 041950
AF306 1205A EMILY HDOB 24 20110804
194030 1733N 07241W 7041 03107 0109 090 049 221024 025 015 000 03
194100 1732N 07239W 6947 03214 0113 080 044 220027 028 020 000 00
194130 1731N 07237W 6957 03198 0111 079 039 219027 028 021 000 03
194200 1731N 07234W 6973 03184 0109 082 037 220028 029 022 000 00
194230 1730N 07232W 6967 03189 0111 080 035 225027 028 017 000 00
194300 1729N 07230W 6967 03187 0114 079 033 224024 026 012 001 00
194330 1728N 07228W 6962 03196 0116 076 031 226023 024 011 000 00
194400 1727N 07225W 6970 03185 0116 078 030 225021 023 004 000 03
194430 1726N 07223W 6969 03189 0113 080 028 221022 022 007 000 00
194500 1725N 07221W 6967 03188 0118 078 027 219022 023 014 000 03
194530 1725N 07218W 6966 03191 0123 075 025 218024 024 017 000 03
194600 1725N 07218W 6966 03191 0121 075 025 218025 025 019 000 00
194630 1723N 07214W 6965 03192 0118 076 024 216024 025 016 000 00
194700 1722N 07211W 6966 03194 0118 076 024 213023 023 012 001 03
194730 1721N 07209W 6968 03189 0116 080 024 213021 022 018 000 03
194800 1720N 07207W 6968 03191 0115 080 024 213021 022 018 000 00
194830 1720N 07204W 6967 03188 0112 081 024 215025 028 014 000 00
194900 1719N 07202W 6966 03189 0110 080 024 214028 028 015 000 03
194930 1718N 07200W 6966 03190 0108 084 024 209029 031 009 000 00
195000 1717N 07158W 6968 03188 0104 087 022 207031 032 008 000 03
$$
Can't help you with that, but they went home.
I only saw a single SW wind and it was as they started climbing to go home.
MONTHLY TROPICAL WEATHER SUMMARY
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON AUG 1 2011
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THREE NAMED STORMS FORMED IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN DURING THE MONTH
OF JULY. THIS WAS WELL ABOVE THE LONG-TERM (1944-2010) AVERAGE OF
ONE.
REPORTS ON INDIVIDUAL CYCLONES...WHEN COMPLETED...ARE AT THE WEB
SITE OF THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...USE LOWER-CASE LETTERS...
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/2011ATLAN.SHTML
SUMMARY TABLE
NAME DATES MAX WIND (MPH)
------------------------------------------------- ---
TS ARLENE 29 JUN-1 JUL 65
TS BRET 17-22 JUL 65
TS CINDY 20-22 JUL 60
TS DON 27-30 JUL 50
$$
HURRICANE SPECIALIST UNIT
I would if I knew how. Sorry.
I guess that was on the leg home wasn't it. The coordinates are near Emily, but the flight-level was up to 700mb. Perhaps the mid-level circulation is showing up there.
There is actually a lot of them showing up on this pass around 17.2 17.1
Ahhh seee. 10k ft however.
If you tell me how to do it i will go get it. But unfortunately i have no idea how.
like this? want a zoom in?
Perfect. Thanks. As I thought, those southwesterlies are associated with the mid-level circulation, which is over the Dominican Republic.
Would either you or Tom tell me how to get to that screen please. Thank you.
Viewing: 651 - 701
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 — Blog Index