Tropical Storm Emily continues to threaten Haiti; More extreme heat in Central U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:47 PM GMT on August 04, 2011

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Tropical Storm Emily remains unorganized this morning, and continues to linger just south of Haiti, near 17.3°N, 72.3°W. Emily is 90 miles south of Port au Prince, Haiti. Storm motion over the past 24 hours has been slow, varying between completely stopped and west to west-northwest at 5 mph. This motion (or lack thereof) is still something that the models aren't analyzing well. Satellite imagery shows that thunderstorm activity on the north side of Emily seems to be disrupted, possibly by the terrain of Hispaniola, but also potentially by the continued moderate shear to the north of the storm. Wind shear has weakened to the northwest of the storm in the past 24 hours, but it will probably not be enough to allow Emily to undergo any significant intensification. The layer of dry air that we've been talking about for the past few days has also all but dissipated to the west and north of the storm. As the National Hurricane Center has been forecasting, environmental conditions are becoming slightly more favorable for the storm. Satellite estimates of wind motion suggest that low level circulation in the storm has become very broad and extends north over Hispaniola, which indicates that there's potential for the storm to undergo a quick jump to the north, but overall the storm remains weak and this seems unlikely. Emily continues to be tilted to the east with height, but doesn't appear as sheared as yesterday morning.

Conditions in Hispaniola have surely deteriorated over the past 24 hours, however, thunderstorm activity appears to have weakened over the island this morning. Infrared satellite imagery shows that cloud tops have warmed in the past 6 hours on the north side of the storm, which means that strong thunderstorms are no longer building high into the atmosphere. High resolution model forecasts (see Figure 1) have continued to predict that the heaviest rain will fall to the east of the storm. The longer Emily tracks west without taking a significant turn to the northwest, the more likely it is that Haiti will see the most extreme rainfall in the storm. Overall, 6 to 12 inches of rain is expected to fall, with local amounts up to 20 inches possible in higher terrain. Flash floods and mudslides are a serious threat.


Figure 1. Forecast radar and sea level pressure from the 06Z (2am EDT) run of the HWRF high resolution model. While I think that the model was initialized poorly and doesn't accurately represent where the storm will travel over the next 24 hours, I do think that the precipitation field is accurate. The strongest rain and winds have been on the east and north sides of the storm over the past couple of days. If Emily continues to move west before taking a significant turn to the northwest, Haiti could receive the strongest impact from the storm.

Forecast for Tropical Storm Emily
Models continue to waver back and forth on Emily's forecast track. Yesterday evening, the HWRF model forecast Emily to cross over Hispaniola and undergoing a close encounter with the Florida coastline. Last night, the National Hurricane Center wrote that "if Emily does not begin its northwestward turn soon…a watch could be required for parts of southern Florida today." Since the storm appears to be moving slightly more to the north than west this morning, this doesn't look like it will be necessary, although the forecast remains very uncertain. In today's 06Z runs, both the HWRF and the GFDL are probably forecasting Emily to move too far north in the next 12 hours. Given the present direction and speed of the storm, it's hard to see these two models' forecasts coming to fruition. The official forecast track from the National Hurricane Center is a turn to the northwest over the next 6 to 12 hours, with landfall in Haiti happening this afternoon. Beyond that, they forecast Emily to stay on a northwest course through the Bahamas, where Emily could restrengthen a bit before making a turn to the northeast on Sunday, although they qualify this forecast with the fact that it's very uncertain, and that the global models dissipate Emily after crossing Hispaniola. The official forecast track does not have Emily making any landfall in Florida, but the Miami to West Palm Beach area is still within the cone of uncertainty.

Interestingly, the models that have done the best job at predicting the track of Emily thus far are the less relied-on statistical track models—those that don't take into account any current atmospheric dynamics. If Emily remains on a west to west-northwest track today, we cannot rule out that it cross over a larger area of Cuba, approaching the southeast portion of Florida. However, given the amount of land interaction in this potential track, the probability of Emily remaining a tropical cyclone in this scenario is low.


Figure 2. Satellite imagery of Tropical Storm Emily at 10:15am EDT. The strongest thunderstorm activity is now in the southern portion of the storm. Thunderstorms over Hispaniola appeared to weaken this morning.

Typhoon Muifa

Typhoon Muifa continues to be a category 2 typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Satellite imagery shows a well developed storm that is moving west-northwest. Over the next day, Muifa is expect to turn to the northwest as it approaches China. Today's track forecast is more north and east of yesterday's, with a brief landfall just north of Shanghai, potentially as a category 3.


Figure 3. MODIS satellite imagery of Typhoon Muifa from earlier today, plotted using NASA's new Rapid Response Web Mapping Service.

Central U.S. heatwave

The heat continues for the central U.S., where I've heard reports that local media in the region were canceling all of their outdoor shots because of the dangerous conditions. Here are some of yesterday's extreme temperatures, which were compiled by our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt:

Little Rock, Arkansas set an all-time record with 114°F (the old record was 112°F set in 1986). Fort Smith, Arkansas set an all time record of 115°F (the old record was 113°F set both Tuesday and previously in 1936).

State maximum air temperatures from Wednesday:

• Arkansas: 116° at Silver Hill (4° short of state all-time record)
• Oklahoma: 115° at Atoka
• Louisiana: 111° at Caney
• Texas: 111° at Fort Worth and Wichita Falls (that also had a record high minimum of 88° this morning)
• Missouri: 109° at Branson and Ava

The heat index is also at play in this heat wave; some incredible values recorded yesterday include 126° in Poplar Bluff, Missouri, 125° in Walnut Ridge, Arkansas, and 122° in Arkadelphia, Arkansas. The GFS continues to forecast heat index values around 120° in the lower Mississippi Valley through the weekend.

Angela

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1026. Grothar
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
:) Thanks. I agree, I am not sure we have seen the last of Ms. Emily yet.


Take a look at this link and tell me if you see what I see. I shall provide a hint. Look for the estimated fix of the last center of the low.

Link
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1025. DFWjc
Quoting FrankZapper:
That reminds me. I think I want a Muffaletta for dinner. :)


Funny, I just got back from Jason's Deli...
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Back to wave and model watching I guess. Back to "none of the reliable computer models predict any TC formation in the next 7 days". Wake up Atlantic!!
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lol
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Quoting TampaSpin:


I think the reminates will move South and toward the GOM!!!!


i dont think the high will still be protecting us with any system that tries to enter the gom...this is floridas baby here..
Member Since: June 24, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 896
Quoting TxHurricanedude11:

Like mention earlier this season it probably wont.although don poofed it counted as a us landfall.
If a storm is headed for and it's not all that strong/has a low moisture feild the big bad high over Texas will kill it.As they say "Everything in Texas is bigger".I would also like to say that if you switch around your post number wich is 1009 it'll be 1900.The most unforgettable year in Texas..and your a Texan get it?
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17481
TampaSpin - That would be "remnants".
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Yesterday, I said the CMC would prevail, ultimately showing a remnant low going over FL or just off its west coast. Still sticking with that story today. FL is going to get hit.... by a semi-naked swirl of clouds and spotty showers.
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Quoting southbeachdude:
Will there still be updates from NHC for RL Emily? How about models runs? Thanks!


yep on this site Linkbecause it not been deactivated so they will still update
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gfs at 39 hrs.

still takes all the energy and forms a low in the Bahamas.

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Quoting cloudburst2011:
im going to go out on a limb once the remnants cross into the bahamas emily will become a TC once again...at 2pm friday afternoon and you are hearing this first from me the NHC will issue a HURRICANE WATCH for SOUTH FLORIDA...emily will have winds approaching 70mph as it heads toward MIAMI..so people do not let your guard down the ssts out there in thye bahamas are in the upper 80s..so nothing to keep emily from becoming a THREAT TO SOUTH FLORIDA...


I think the reminates will move South and toward the GOM!!!!
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1014. zawxdsk
Quoting chevycanes:
gfs at 27 hrs on the latest run coming out.



Remnants of Emily don't look like a hurricane, but they sure look like a tropical wave.

Thanks for staying on-topic chevy.
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i see people are calling difference of opinion lies now huh? how ignorant. all media is leaning in one way or another. the only thing is they only have one news station that is bigger in ratings than all the others, but its still just one news station that goes the way of conservatives, fox! cnn and msnbc have a very big liberal lean to them. msnbc even promotes their lean by saying its a place for progressives. no ones opinion is no more right than the next persons, otherwise it wouldn't be opinion. get off the if i don't agree with you its a lie and get off this crappy news argument and lets get some opinion on emily!
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Quoting DFWjc:


Google translates it into moo-a-fa
That reminds me. I think I want a Muffaletta for dinner. :)
Member Since: May 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
Quoting southbeachdude:
Will there still be updates from NHC for RL Emily? How about models runs? Thanks!
CSU has it as Tropical Wave Emily. As far as the answer to your question, models are always being ran, regardless of a storm or not, and the NHC will continue to watch for potential re-generation once it pops back over water.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
So far the U.S deflecter sheild has been doing it's job.I say keep it up.I just hope the pattern continues.

Like mention earlier this season it probably wont.although don poofed it counted as a us landfall.
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im going to go out on a limb once the remnants cross into the bahamas emily will become a TC once again...at 2pm friday afternoon and you are hearing this first from me the NHC will issue a HURRICANE WATCH for SOUTH FLORIDA...emily will have winds approaching 70mph as it heads toward MIAMI..so people do not let your guard down the ssts out there in thye bahamas are in the upper 80s..so nothing to keep emily from becoming a THREAT TO SOUTH FLORIDA...
Member Since: June 24, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 896
Quoting Grothar:


Top part is in English. The other entries are just the English version translated into different languages. I always do my blogs that way.
:) Thanks. I agree, I am not sure we have seen the last of Ms. Emily yet.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
So far the U.S deflecter sheild has been doing it's job.I say keep it up.I just hope the pattern continues.

It should through the next couple weeks. I envision at least one CV storm going OTS before we head into the meat and potatoes and the season. And then it's fair game.
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1004. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
994. southbeachdude 9:47 PM GMT on August 04, 2011
Will there still be updates from NHC for RL Emily? How about models runs? Thanks!


Tropical Cyclone Outlook will still be issued from the National Hurricane Center Miami unless system has no chance of re-developing.
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Quoting stormpetrol:
LOCATION...17.8N 72.8W
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM SSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...16 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

LOCATION...19.0N 75.0W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SSW OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES
Tell me what's wrong with this picture/graphic, yep I know degenerated into a trough of low pressure, but my goodness what speed it would have to go in 3 hours to end up at 19N/75W, just saying, what/who turned the HHs around, one word imo "embarrassment" If this regenerated I will not post a comment concerning this particularly named storm.Use a little common sense and think about it before blasting me!!


167 miles in 3 hours... 55 mph!
Member Since: March 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1147
1002. barbamz
Good evening from Germany! Very strong sun activity has to be watched too these days. Sorry, if someone did already post this, but I've got few time in the moment to read back all this masses of posts ;)

From spaceweather.com:

STRONG SOLAR ACTIVITY: For the third day in a row, active sunspot 1261 has unleashed a significant M-class solar flare. The latest blast at 0357 UT on August 4th registered M9.3 on the Richter Scale of Flares, almost crossing the threshold into X-territory (X-flares are the most powerful kind). The number of energetic protons around Earth has jumped nearly 100-fold as a result of this event.

Moving at an estimated speed of 1950 km/s, this CME is expected to sweep up two earlier CMEs already en route. Analysts at the GSFC Space Weather Lab say the combined cloud should reach Earth on August 5th at 13:55 UT plus or minus 7 hours: "The impact on Earth is likely to be major. The estimated maximum geomagnetic activity index level Kp is 7 (Kp ranges from 0 - 9). The flanks of the CME may also impact STEREO A, Mars and Mercury/MESSENGER." High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras.


http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/alerts/warnings_timeline .html
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1001. DFWjc
Quoting Grothar:


Top part is in English. The other entries are just the English version translated into different languages. I always do my blogs that way.


That's pretty cool Grothar...good job
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So far the U.S deflecter sheild has been doing it's job.I say keep it up.I just hope the pattern continues.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17481
Quoting Grothar:


Top part is in English. The other entries are just the English version translated into different languages. I always do my blogs that way.


Did you pass out the translation dictionary?

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Quoting cloudburst2011:





you must be kidding think again you can come up with the name...trust me this person is almost perfect when he says something concerning the tropics..to bad we didnt have him in KATRINA..
Nash? He's dead
Bob Breck is on Fox?
Who, that other guy?
Member Since: May 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
Quoting weaverwxman:
NEA PLEASE DON't do do resist the temptation.. thanks

Oh, no temptation; there are other blogs for that. Just congratulating FZ on his/her honesty. ;-)

Last year on this date:

--Colin had formed then died down before coming back;

--ACE stood at 8.355 (7.705 of that from Alex);

--Danielle was 18 days away from being named;

--The count stood at 3-1-0, with 16-11-5 yet to come.
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Quoting FrankZapper:
It's called summertime. Da! Please leave the subtle AGW stuff at the door!
Quoting Neapolitan:

Today was the 34th consecutive one in Dallas at or above 100, and the fourth straight day with a record high temp. Wichita Falls, meanwhile, had its 44th consecutive day at or above 100.

Hot and dry, and getting hotter and drier...


here is summer for you...
http://www.chron.com/news/photogallery/Its_HOT_ou t_there.html#27330076#ixzz1U5zJ3rne
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Quoting Hurricanejer95:

Then the boarder disputes..
Montana: WT% are you here, Florida??
Florida: I was hit by LOTS of hurricanes!
Montana: So, Texas got hit by hurricanes! Go back were you came from!
*Starts Montana-Florida boarder war*


And Florida wins with no shots fired. Why you ask?
"Why?"
(very good)

Do you really think those hard working cowboys from Big Sky Country will draw down on a mass hoard of retirees bearing down on them with canes waving furiously?

THEY DON"T HAVE A CHANCE!!!!!
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Will there still be updates from NHC for RL Emily? How about models runs? Thanks!
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gfs at 27 hrs on the latest run coming out.

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Good afternoon everyone.My goodness this heat is just terrible.Anyways I dont think Emily has showed her last trick yet.Just an opinion.No proof.She has been nothing but suprising to us all.And I still think Florida needs to keep a close eye.Just for safety precautions.Afterall this is tropical weather and it can not be predicted.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Good afternoon Grothar. Well, I have visited your blog but unfortunately I cannot understand it.


Top part is in English. The other entries are just the English version translated into different languages. I always do my blogs that way.
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Quoting leelee75k:
so does the blob get a new name if it develops a new low or does the NHC bring the name Emily back??

anyone?? t.i.a

Too funny, cuz I was actually wondering the same thing a while back. I did some research, and to my understanding, it would get the same name. I think because those pieces of energy were once associated with Emily. However, if that energy does get lured into another broad low pressure (like what you would see in a tropical wave), then it would merit a new name, since it's considered an entirely separate entity. But the low would have to be at least a hundred miles away, or else it can be construed as the same system just relocating the center--like what we saw with Emily numerous times.

Great question though.
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So, what's next over the horizon? What kind of steering flow will we be in for these Cape Verde systems. Does it look like recurve pattern is setting up like last year?
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The rest of the Atlantic Basin is quiet right now with no other areas of suspect weather seen on satellite images. I expect that we'll see this pattern continue for about the next week to possibly 10 days. As we get to mid-August and beyond, there could very well be a period of time with many hurricanes forming one after the other. At the risk of sounding too sensational, just consider the time of year we're approaching and the fact that every major forecasting agency is calling for an extremely active August and September. So far, we've been extremely lucky since Ike in 2008. We may get lucky again in 2011 but the odds seem to be against that. Use this time to think about your own hurricane plan and what action you and your family will take if one comes your way.
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What is that rumble. No - thunder??- really I must be mistaken. LOL. C'mon down - I need the rain.
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http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/n or thatlantic/track_early1.png
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Quoting atmoaggie:
Oops.

Another, different post-2004 Florida (which I am sure many have seen before):

Then the boarder disputes..
Montana: WT% are you here, Florida??
Florida: I was hit by LOTS of hurricanes!
Montana: So, Texas got hit by hurricanes! Go back were you came from!
*Starts Montana-Florida boarder war*
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983. DFWjc
Quoting stormpetrol:


Not Yet, just some may not like my comment at all and see it as criticizing , just makes one ponder that's all!


or what would be a daily occurrence on this blog..
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Afternoon all.

Anybody notice the advisory number was 13? - not so lucky for Emily.....

I'll bet Avila was glad to give Emily her conge. There was a real tone of "good riddance to bad rubbish in the discussion... lol....

And the GFS was doing a good job after getting the Gonzo flight data yesterday....

Also have to give credit to the pple who insisted Emily would go west.... sure is going west now....

That's Em forya... a real crowd pleaser... something for everyone.

And for the faithful few, there's always the overnight vigil, in case the spirit [read MLC] of Emily can be regenerated....

The End... until....


REGENERATION!!! [Music from Michael Jackon's "Thriller" plays]



Well done... Perhaps the first new advisory can be read posthumously by Vincent Price.
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Quoting JupiterFL:


Old News would have been a tremendous celebration of the blog's author.


Boy, I missed you, Jupe!!
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980. DFWjc
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Japan has it as ムエファー (muefaa) so I guess it would be moo e fi


Google translates it into moo-a-fa
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Quoting cloudburst2011:



WHY ARE YOU BEING BLASTED FOR WHAT..


Not Yet, just some may not like my comment at all and see it as criticizing , just makes one ponder that's all!
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Quoting hydrus:
For some reason, I dont think we are finished this system..jmo..


When is the next round of model runs (I'm not quite tuned to that schedule yet)? Is it 8PM EDT? Curious to see if any will redevelop it.
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emily will become the living dead tonight maybe the LLC can redevelop back and either get back MLC or develop a new one by that time should be located at about 19.5N 76.5W hmm you never know may redevelop then warning will be up for cuba again Jamaica will get there the caymans will the theres hmm but what about track afterwards will it go Yuc/Mex, W&C Gulf states or Florida what te shear like ULL moving WWNW ULAC moves N causing lower shear hmm MLC over Dom Rep seem to be getting elongated convection with that is dying so MLC becoming weak maybe will shift over to the one at 19 75
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Afternoon all.

Anybody notice the advisory number was 13? - not so lucky for Emily.....

I'll bet Avila was glad to give Emily her conge. There was a real tone of "good riddance to bad rubbish in the discussion... lol....

And the GFS was doing a good job after getting the Gonzo flight data yesterday....

Also have to give credit to the pple who insisted Emily would go west.... sure is going west now....

That's Em forya... a real crowd pleaser... something for everyone.

And for the faithful few, there's always the overnight vigil, in case the spirit [read MLC] of Emily can be regenerated....

The End... until....


REGENERATION!!! [Music from Michael Jackon's "Thriller" plays]

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.