Tropical Depression Emily Reforms, Rain for the Bahamas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:28 AM GMT on August 07, 2011

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As of 11PM EDT, Tropical Depression Emily was located at 27.4N, 78.2W, 70 miles NNE of Freeport, Grand Bahama Island. It was moving north at 8 mph with sustained winds of 35 mph and a minimum central pressure of 1011 mb. No watches or warnings are in effect for Emily at this time.


Figure 1 IR satellite view of Emily taken at 1200AM EDT, August 7, 2011

The remnants of Tropical Storm Emily were recognized as a tropical depression after analysis of surface observations, satellite imagery, and Hurricane Hunter flights showed that Emily had achieved a closed circulation again. However, at this time, it is not expected to do much beyond raining heavily (1-3 inches, 6 inches in isolated regions) over the Bahamas. As Figure 2 shows, NHC forecasts Emily to move north and then sharply eastwards before dissipating as it merges with a front. The westerly wind shear associated with this front will be the likely cause for Emily's second demise.


Figure 2 Official track forecast of Emily.

As Figure 3 shows, the concerns for rain from Emily is justified based on past behavior. Satellite estimates shows that on August 4, 3-5 inches of rain fell just south of Hispaniola, with 1-2 inches falling on the southern Dominican Republic.


Figure 3 Satellite-estimated precipitation (mm) for Thursday, August 4 using the CMORPH techniques. Data provided by the Climate Prediction Center

If the situation warrants, we will have a new blog entry Sunday. Otherwise, we will resume the normal posting schedule on Monday.

Thanks for reading,

Dr. Rob Carver

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1480. Seawall
6:09 PM GMT on August 08, 2011
Quoting Hattie:
Guys, this is a test.I am not sure if my posts are posting...Could somebody please let me know if they see this.


See ya!
Member Since: September 8, 2001 Posts: 1 Comments: 401
1478. klew136
5:36 PM GMT on August 08, 2011
Quoting stillwaiting:
i wouldnt call troughing over the nw gom a classic august pattern,that wouldbe ridging off the east coast of fl


AS USUAL...FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES IN THE LONG TERM PORTION
OF THE FORECAST. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS THE AFOREMENTIONED
MID LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SAGGING SOUTHWARD OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA AND POSSIBLY THE FLORIDA KEYS THURSDAY...BEFORE EVENTUALLY
DISSOLVING LATE THIS WEEK OR EARLY THIS WEEKEND. IF THIS SITUATION
COMES INTO FRUITION...WHICH IS HIGHLY ABNORMAL FOR AUGUST...RAIN
CHANCES WILL END UP HIGHER THAN ADVERTISED.
Member Since: September 5, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 130
1477. blsealevel
5:34 PM GMT on August 08, 2011
Quoting Hattie:
Guys, this is a test.I am not sure if my posts are posting...Could somebody please let me know if they see this.


Yep
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1918
1476. blsealevel
5:32 PM GMT on August 08, 2011
Quoting JLPR2:


Its been naked since yesterday, would be more interesting if it had convection closeby.


That would help, also looking at watervapor
shows its drifting on the outer edge of the massive amount of dry air to its east side and the west to east winds have some plans for it later too.

Also whats going on in the Carib, developing ULL or something?
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1918
1475. klew136
5:31 PM GMT on August 08, 2011
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Link


good article I learn something new on here everyday!!
Member Since: September 5, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 130
1474. Neapolitan
5:28 PM GMT on August 08, 2011
NEW GUEST BLOG ENTRY BY ANGELA
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13580
1473. washingtonian115
5:28 PM GMT on August 08, 2011
I hope you all know what ruckusboondocks means....it's not a very nice character off of the show...Anywho still no circle for 92L?.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17161
1472. Hattie
5:27 PM GMT on August 08, 2011
Guys, this is a test.I am not sure if my posts are posting...Could somebody please let me know if they see this.
Member Since: September 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4
1471. reedzone
5:27 PM GMT on August 08, 2011
Quoting Grothar:


I can't find it reed, What link are you using?

Link
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7396
1470. beell
5:25 PM GMT on August 08, 2011
Quoting blsealevel:
ohhh Ummm well maybe nothing but this just dont look right.

Link


No it doesn't. First 7 frames must be out of wack as far as time and date stamp. No naked swirl. Added: Or just a floater shift.
: - )
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 144 Comments: 16769
1469. RukusBoondocks
5:24 PM GMT on August 08, 2011
How come we have 92 with no yellow cirle? nhc doesnt even mention it
Member Since: February 13, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 294
1468. navarch
5:21 PM GMT on August 08, 2011
Quoting blsealevel:
ohhh Ummm well maybe nothing but this just dont look right.

Link


Only thing I can gather is a major pole shift...
Member Since: August 21, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 10
1467. JLPR2
5:21 PM GMT on August 08, 2011
Quoting blsealevel:
ohhh Ummm well maybe nothing but this just dont look right.

Link


Its been naked since yesterday, would be more interesting if it had convection closeby.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8735
1466. blsealevel
5:18 PM GMT on August 08, 2011
ohhh Ummm well maybe nothing but this just dont look right.

Link
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1918
1465. Grothar
5:17 PM GMT on August 08, 2011
Quoting reedzone:
12Z GFS develops 92L


I can't find it reed, What link are you using?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26558
1464. Hattie
5:15 PM GMT on August 08, 2011
Hi everyone. If you run the loop from MIMIC TPW, it look like 92 is trying to get going... http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/na tl/main.html
Member Since: September 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4
1463. beell
5:13 PM GMT on August 08, 2011
Kinda hard to say if it is the "original" 92L that develops in the 12Z. And in a practical sense it probably does not matter.

A strong monsoonal gyre in place off the coast of Africa-which accounts for the nearly stationary movement in the model at first. At least a piece of the wave heads NW followed by another development farther south. Might best be viewed at 700mb.

But it does bring something out of the confusion (at least mine) headed west.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 144 Comments: 16769
1462. JLPR2
5:13 PM GMT on August 08, 2011
Quoting CybrTeddy:
12z GFS does develop 92L, but shows it developing after 50W, this is probably if 92L does develop where it would try to develop.


That's the strongest the GFS has ever showed 92L; but nah... It should drop it on the next run. XD
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8735
1461. stillwaiting
5:12 PM GMT on August 08, 2011
****ne gom
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
1460. CaicosRetiredSailor
5:09 PM GMT on August 08, 2011
For those with a need to track something in the tropics...

Nyad headed toward Key West:

http://edition.cnn.com/interactive/2011/07/specia ls/map.diana.nyad/index.html
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6051
1459. CybrTeddy
5:08 PM GMT on August 08, 2011
12z GFS does develop 92L, but shows it developing after 50W, this is probably if 92L does develop where it would try to develop.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24263
1458. stillwaiting
5:05 PM GMT on August 08, 2011
i wouldnt call troughing over the nw gom a classic august pattern,that wouldbe ridging off the east coast of fl
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
1457. JLPR2
5:04 PM GMT on August 08, 2011
Mid-level circulation finally moved WSW and sort of aligned with the LLC, 91L is better structurally, doing poorly convection-wise.

Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8735
1456. reedzone
5:02 PM GMT on August 08, 2011
12Z GFS develops 92L
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7396
1455. blsealevel
5:00 PM GMT on August 08, 2011
Quoting Patrap:
Its first run,,was Gustav and it went really well here.


Nice and the 3D art work will look cool around the city too.
Giving direction and education to the masses.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1918
1454. VAbeachhurricanes
4:55 PM GMT on August 08, 2011
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
Index Country Change % Change Level Last Update
Dow Jones Industrial Average United States -338.57 -2.96% 11,106.04 12:22:08pm ET
S&P 500 Index United States -45.91 -3.83% 1,153.47 12:20pm ET
Brazil Bovespa Stock Index Brazil -2,846.12 -5.38% 50,103.10 12:05pm ET
Canada S&P/TSX 60 Canada -14.79 -2.14% 677.05 12:06pm ET
Santiago Index IPSA Chile -174.20 -4.28% 3,891.89 12:03pm ET
IPC Mexico -1,006.68 -2.99% 32,691.19 12:01pm ET



yeah, its getting ugly
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6624
1453. shfr173
4:52 PM GMT on August 08, 2011
thanks for the link!
Member Since: September 4, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 74
1452. DFWjc
4:48 PM GMT on August 08, 2011
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
At the end of the day loss of life is the greatest tragedy from any hurricane and Andrew, in spite of the "economic" damage and Cat 5 upgrade, pales in comparison to the loss of life with Katrina.


Katrina had 81 billion to Andrew's 26.5 bilion dollars of damage.. loss of life was Katrina 1836 to Andrew's 65.
Member Since: July 19, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 1006
1451. nrtiwlnvragn
4:45 PM GMT on August 08, 2011
Quoting shfr173:
ok i'll bite, what is a pouch?


Link
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11223
1450. weathermanwannabe
4:43 PM GMT on August 08, 2011
At the end of the day loss of life is the greatest tragedy from any hurricane and Andrew, in spite of the "economic" damage and Cat 5 upgrade, pales in comparison to the loss of life with Katrina.
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9265
1449. Bijou
4:42 PM GMT on August 08, 2011
Yep, a lot came together for Gustav. I was proud of us, organizations at many levels worked well together to make the Gustav evac as painless as possible.

New Orleans should develop a grass roots disaster mitigation, response and recovery industry. We're in the perfect place to help with planning, response and recovery to any natural disaster in the Gulf South.

Quoting Patrap:
Its first run,,was Gustav and it went really well here.
Member Since: September 13, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 10
1448. shfr173
4:42 PM GMT on August 08, 2011
ok i'll bite, what is a pouch?
Member Since: September 4, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 74
1447. beell
4:39 PM GMT on August 08, 2011
Quoting islander101010:
i believe when camile was a pouch she came wsw across the atlantic too


According to Camille's history she moved pretty much due west as a wave towards the eastern Caribbean in the heart of the MDR.

Pouch theory was formulated recently-post Camille from a database of storms in 1998-2001.

But I bet she had a pretty pouch.

Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 144 Comments: 16769
1446. nrtiwlnvragn
4:39 PM GMT on August 08, 2011
Quoting beell:


Pretty interesting, nrt.

Same area that generated a couple of comments yesterday:

811. beell 11:40 PM GMT on August 07, 2011
Quoting hydrus:
Check out this model with a storm moving W-SW through the Central Atlantic...

Saw that on the GFS. Stronger on the 18Z but noticable on the 12Z which recurves it.

A shortwave pinching off a vort in the central Atlantic just ahead of 92L. Course you might have to also consider this an indication of the weakness that could turn 92L out.



Looks like the latest GFS has flipped back to development, flip-flop-flip
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11223
1445. aislinnpaps
4:33 PM GMT on August 08, 2011
Quoting Patrap:
Its first run,,was Gustav and it went really well here.


I don't even want to imagine all it takes to coordinate a mass evacuation of that size. I know how crazy it was here for Rita and we are all pretty much small towns. My hat is off to this man, yourself and others who organize such large scale life saving missions.
Member Since: August 22, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3151
1444. ElConando
4:32 PM GMT on August 08, 2011
Quoting Methurricanes:
it seems the storms are coming closer to New England Every year
Kyle in 08 was 150ish miles off Cape Cod
Bill in 09 was 100ish miles off Cape Cod
Earl in 10' was 50ish miles off Cape Cod
So this year will a storm hit Cape Cod


Naw it will miss cape cod by 25 miles, loop around and hit JFV's house and then come and hit cape cod
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3768
1443. islander101010
4:32 PM GMT on August 08, 2011
Quoting beell:


Pretty interesting, nrt.

Same area that generated a couple of comments yesterday:

811. beell 11:40 PM GMT on August 07, 2011
Quoting hydrus:
Check out this model with a storm moving W-SW through the Central Atlantic...

Saw that on the GFS. Stronger on the 18Z but noticable on the 12Z which recurves it.

A shortwave pinching off a vort in the central Atlantic just ahead of 92L. Course you might have to also consider this an indication of the weakness that could turn 92L out.

i believe when camile was a pouch she came wsw across the atlantic too if you look at her early tw track she came from the northern c.verde islands
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4782
1442. Patrap
4:31 PM GMT on August 08, 2011
Its first run,,was Gustav and it went really well here.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128875
1441. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
4:29 PM GMT on August 08, 2011
Quoting Waltanater:
So WHY aren't the models updated for 92L yet??
has gone stealth mode we got nothing there at the moment but a ghost
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54639
1440. aislinnpaps
4:29 PM GMT on August 08, 2011
Quoting Patrap:
Having a Weds meeting with a Local Guy here who started evacuteer.org.





Great idea he had! New Orleanians should be models for other Gulf cities.
Member Since: August 22, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3151
1439. aquak9
4:28 PM GMT on August 08, 2011
Hi ncfloodzone! HotPockets on da house!!

Saint- yeah I put up a sprinkler in the yard last week, I think they invested it...but I kept moving it in order to confuse the model's initiation.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 169 Comments: 26126
1438. BahaHurican
4:27 PM GMT on August 08, 2011
Hey, ya'll.... I see our invest of derringdo is not doing so much today....

I'll prolly lurk around some.... but enjoying the break while it lasts.... lol
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22359
1437. DFWjc
4:27 PM GMT on August 08, 2011
Quoting CorneliaMarie:
so, did we finally come to an agreement that Andrew was worse than Katrina, in all aspects?



No
Member Since: July 19, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 1006
1436. aquak9
4:26 PM GMT on August 08, 2011
Quoting earthlydragonfly:
afternoon folks... Hey water pup...


ahhh...how'd you know I was lurking? :)
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 169 Comments: 26126
1435. beell
4:26 PM GMT on August 08, 2011
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Naval Postgraduate School synopsis on P14L (92L)


SYNOPSIS 2011080800

P14L
12N, 21W
700 hPa

The story of a single, easily-tracked pouch is gone!

ECMWF: P14L is stationary just off the coast of Africa as another weak wave approaches from the east. P14L and the other wave/pouch (I have never tracked this eastern wave/pouch) merge during Day 2. Then this merged pouch, which I continue to call P14L, initially moves northwestward, but then it moves southwestward and dissipates after 96 hours. Meanwhile, two other pouches are depicted later in the forecast period. (1) An area of elevated and OW values to the southeast of P14L, and (2) A small 700-hPa pouch moves from the subtropics toward the southwest ahead of/west of P14L. This pouch develops and then moves westward toward the Caribbean. (I have always thought that 2010's Matthew had similar origins, so this potential pouch needs monitoring.)

GFS: Similar to ECMWF, except that after the merger, P14L moves northwestward into the subtropical ridge and dissipates. GFS also depicts the eventual tropical pouch to the southeast as well as the subtropical pouch that moves into the Caribbean.

UKMET: Similar to GFS, with an early merger, motion into and dissipation in the subtropical ridge, and even the development of another 700-hPa subtropical development to the west.

NOGAPS: Outlier!! Like other models, NOGAPS hints at an early merger, although the presence of the other wave/pouch is not so obvious in the fields. However, NOGAPS does not move P14L northwestward, but rather, moves westward, but with a somewhat erratic track. By Day 5, P14L is elongated zonally, so it appears to be just part of the ITCZ.



Pretty interesting, nrt.

Same area that generated a couple of comments yesterday:

811. beell 11:40 PM GMT on August 07, 2011
Quoting hydrus:
Check out this model with a storm moving W-SW through the Central Atlantic...

Saw that on the GFS. Stronger on the 18Z but noticable on the 12Z which recurves it.

A shortwave pinching off a vort in the central Atlantic just ahead of 92L. Course you might have to also consider this an indication of the weakness that could turn 92L out.

Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 144 Comments: 16769
1433. Patrap
4:23 PM GMT on August 08, 2011
Having a Weds meeting with a Local Guy here who started evacuteer.org.



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128875
1432. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
4:22 PM GMT on August 08, 2011
Index Country Change % Change Level Last Update
Dow Jones Industrial Average United States -338.57 -2.96% 11,106.04 12:22:08pm ET
S&P 500 Index United States -45.91 -3.83% 1,153.47 12:20pm ET
Brazil Bovespa Stock Index Brazil -2,846.12 -5.38% 50,103.10 12:05pm ET
Canada S&P/TSX 60 Canada -14.79 -2.14% 677.05 12:06pm ET
Santiago Index IPSA Chile -174.20 -4.28% 3,891.89 12:03pm ET
IPC Mexico -1,006.68 -2.99% 32,691.19 12:01pm ET

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54639
1431. Patrap
4:19 PM GMT on August 08, 2011
Man,I do have to admit I lub "pouch tracking" .
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128875
1430. Patrap
4:17 PM GMT on August 08, 2011
1423. Floodman 11:10

I remember dat..

It was a slug fest of data and interesting to say the least.

I've been ban-less for over a year now.


I got 1 year Wu no-ban chip too.


The profit-sharing kicks n @ 100K post as well.

: )
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128875

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.