Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Tropical Depression Emily Reforms, Rain for the Bahamas

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:28 AM GMT on August 07, 2011

+17

As of 11PM EDT, Tropical Depression Emily was located at 27.4N, 78.2W, 70 miles NNE of Freeport, Grand Bahama Island. It was moving north at 8 mph with sustained winds of 35 mph and a minimum central pressure of 1011 mb. No watches or warnings are in effect for Emily at this time.

Figure 1 IR satellite view of Emily taken at 1200AM EDT, August 7, 2011

The remnants of Tropical Storm Emily were recognized as a tropical depression after analysis of surface observations, satellite imagery, and Hurricane Hunter flights showed that Emily had achieved a closed circulation again. However, at this time, it is not expected to do much beyond raining heavily (1-3 inches, 6 inches in isolated regions) over the Bahamas. As Figure 2 shows, NHC forecasts Emily to move north and then sharply eastwards before dissipating as it merges with a front. The westerly wind shear associated with this front will be the likely cause for Emily's second demise.

Figure 2 Official track forecast of Emily.

As Figure 3 shows, the concerns for rain from Emily is justified based on past behavior. Satellite estimates shows that on August 4, 3-5 inches of rain fell just south of Hispaniola, with 1-2 inches falling on the southern Dominican Republic.

Figure 3 Satellite-estimated precipitation (mm) for Thursday, August 4 using the CMORPH techniques. Data provided by the Climate Prediction Center

If the situation warrants, we will have a new blog entry Sunday. Otherwise, we will resume the normal posting schedule on Monday.

Thanks for reading,

Dr. Rob Carver

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401. caneswatch 3:50 PM GMT on August 07, 2011
Quoting P451: Why yes, it just so happens that I do! 10/10 I approve of these new models LOL Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4479

402. sflweatherguy 3:51 PM GMT on August 07, 2011
Quoting P451: Early cycle models have been posted for the CAtl AOI: LOL! Member Since: August 16, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 57

403. weathermanwannabe 3:52 PM GMT on August 07, 2011
Good Morning. Just wanted to give some kudos to NHC/Models track wise as to Emily. The intensity issues were more difficult to nail down on this one but as Avila pointed out a few days, I think one of the models consistently did not develop her while NHC pretty much went with the consensus and kept her at TS strength which did not pan out......I would think that the lesson learned, for me anyway, from this one is that weaker systems gives the models and humans more forecasting problems than deeper storms which the models initialize much better. On to the next ones and the next four weeks should be much more active on the CV side. The SAL will play a part in the timing but once some good waves moisten up the middle-passage (same as the slaves ships back in the day), Mother Nature will turn on the "switch", SAL and sheer will die down considerably, and we will have a few "clusters" of back to back CV storms. Where they will go is anyone's guess at this point over the next two month period. Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 6851

404. Grothar 3:53 PM GMT on August 07, 2011
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn: LOL Need to develop one of those disclaimer statements like for mutual funds, IRA, etc. Must be in small, small font. If you talk with Mrs. Grothar, you will know I am very good at disclaimers. Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 58 Comments: 19637

405. HarryMc 3:53 PM GMT on August 07, 2011
Quoting MysteryMeat: Where's the one with Homer? That's the money chart. Should be a steady increase in activity for the next four to six weeks. But then, that's average. Not too much has been average lately. Member Since: March 30, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 325

406. wunderkidcayman 3:53 PM GMT on August 07, 2011
Quoting P451: Early cycle models have been posted for the CAtl AOI: HA HA VERY FUNNY YOU NEED TO BRING IT DOWN FURTHER YOU GOT IT RIGHT FOR THE MOST PART BUT WRONG AFTER YOU HAVE IT PASS JAMAICA IT NEEDS TO PASS GRAND CAYMAN TO THE SOUTH MAYBE 75-100 MI AWAY FROM WHERE YOU HAVE IT THEN WHEN IT REACHES THE GOM IT TURNS NWARD TO ALABAMA opps sorry for the caps Quoting stormwatcherCI: Well, the wunderkid model would bring it to a Cat 12 right over Cayman. a so funny I forgot to laugh no that is not true not one bit I have see my share of major Hurricanes in Cayman even in the last 7 years you should know the one I am talking about but I would say Cat 2 passing 75-100 Mi South of us Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 5997

407. IKE 3:55 PM GMT on August 07, 2011
...EMILY MOVING NORTHEASTWARD...COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT... Fat lady is warming in the bullpen..... Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37070

408. nrtiwlnvragn 3:55 PM GMT on August 07, 2011
Quoting Grothar: If you talk with Mrs. Grothar, you will know I am very good at disclaimers. Sounds more like excuses Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 12 Comments: 9088

409. hunkerdown 3:56 PM GMT on August 07, 2011
Quoting IKE: ...EMILY MOVING NORTHEASTWARD...COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT... Fat lady is warming in the bullpen..... I don't believe they will require her services to be performed live. A recorder with remote access will suffice for this one... Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2514

410. nrtiwlnvragn 3:57 PM GMT on August 07, 2011
Quoting IKE: ...EMILY MOVING NORTHEASTWARD...COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT... Fat lady is warming in the bullpen..... Replace the pitcher in mid-count. Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 12 Comments: 9088

411. IKE 3:59 PM GMT on August 07, 2011
Quoting hunkerdown: I don't believe they will require her services to be performed live. A recorder with remote access will suffice for this one... Yo bud. Emily was Touch and Go.... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTnG87N0umY&fe ature=related About 2 b gawn. Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37070

412. ElConando 3:59 PM GMT on August 07, 2011
Quoting atmoaggie: True! (And I knew this was coming.) Ike was a bit of an oddity. A TD at 17.6 N that made it across...partly by going southwest as a hurricane for a day, also a bit unusual. Possibly due to its compact size during that point in its history I assume. If it where the size it was when it was in the Gulf, I'm sure we would be talking about a whole different area that Ike devastated. Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3709

413. Neapolitan 3:59 PM GMT on August 07, 2011
Quoting P451: Why yes, it just so happens that I do! Thanks! Some of those models are very, uh, erratic. ;-) Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 11284

415. scott39 4:01 PM GMT on August 07, 2011
The next wave that is coming off of Africa is the one to watch. Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6221

416. IKE 4:02 PM GMT on August 07, 2011
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn: Replace the pitcher in mid-count. Throw a softball at Emily. She'll probably swing and miss. Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37070

418. turtlegirl9 4:04 PM GMT on August 07, 2011
Quoting jonelu: That little blob of red that is at the top of Dr Master's blog delivered NO rain to WPB...looks are deceiving. We got quite a bit of rain in Miami yesterday afternoon and night. I drove through what felt like a rain band with water pooling up on the highway it was coming down so fast. No wind though. Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 16

419. Stormchaser2007 4:04 PM GMT on August 07, 2011
Maybe some 10-15 knot easterly shear. Nothing too deadly for the moment. SAL should be the main factor for this one. Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15294

420. ElConando 4:05 PM GMT on August 07, 2011
Quoting scott39: The next wave that is coming off of Africa is the one to watch. At this point til the end of September most will be watchable. Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3709

421. ElConando 4:06 PM GMT on August 07, 2011
Quoting IKE: Throw a softball at Emily. She'll probably swing and miss. Soft balls can be thrown at 60-70mph but I'm sure she'd miss at slow pitch at this point too. Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3709

422. IceCoast 4:08 PM GMT on August 07, 2011
78Hrs 12Z GFS Member Since: October 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1259

423. hydrus 4:08 PM GMT on August 07, 2011
Quoting IKE: Yo bud. Emily was Touch and Go.... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTnG87N0umY&fe ature=related About 2 b gawn. This could be interesting. The NAM forms something in the extreme S.W.CaribbeanSea and pulls it nn-w..Link Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14626

424. scott39 4:08 PM GMT on August 07, 2011
Quoting ElConando: At this point til the end of September most will be watchable. I should have said that wave looks better than the one in front of it. Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6221

425. IKE 4:09 PM GMT on August 07, 2011
Quoting ElConando: Soft balls can be thrown at 60-70mph but I'm sure she'd miss at slow pitch at this point too. True. Seen it on ESPN. ................................................. .................................................. ..... My location.... Mostly Cloudy 91 �F (33 �C) Humidity: 64 % Wind Speed: Vrbl 5 MPH Barometer: 30.01" (1015.8 mb) Dewpoint: 77 �F (25 �C) Heat Index: 104 �F (40 �C) Visibility: 10.00 mi. Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37070

426. scott39 4:11 PM GMT on August 07, 2011
When are 92Ls models going to be posted? Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6221

427. IKE 4:11 PM GMT on August 07, 2011
Quoting hydrus: This could be interesting. The NAM forms something in the extreme S.W.CaribbeanSea and pulls it nn-w..Link Latest run doesn't show it. Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37070

428. hydrus 4:12 PM GMT on August 07, 2011
Quoting Stormchaser2007: Maybe some 10-15 knot easterly shear. Nothing too deadly for the moment. SAL should be the main factor for this one. I do agree... Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14626

429. nrtiwlnvragn 4:14 PM GMT on August 07, 2011
425. IKE Saw your general area is in the Storm Summary for high heat indexes. ...FLORIDA... CECIL FIELD NAS 111 PERRY FOLEY ARPT 110 APALACHICOLA MUNI 109 TYNDALL AFB 109 WHITING FLD NAS 109 Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 12 Comments: 9088

430. aquak9 4:18 PM GMT on August 07, 2011
northern eyewall- I got 119º (heat index) on the screened-in back porch, about 25 miles east of Cecil Field. That's 97º with 57% humidity. Oughtta be a law, I'm tellin' ya... Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25036

431. BahaHurican 4:21 PM GMT on August 07, 2011
Quoting ejstrick: Someone mention old days? Good to see you aqua. Geez... where'd u pop up from? lol Haven't seen u post on the main blog in a while..... In defense of some of the "old-timers", some of it's just life happening... I know where in previous years I would be able to be in here almost every day, now I'm having weeks when I can only get to the blog 2-3 days a weak. That's why I'm enjoying this time I have right now when I can get to the blog pretty much whenever I like. But in busier times of the year, well, we mostly have more responsibilities, less time. Some pple had job policy changes, where online time is structured differently. Some pple married, had kids, got sick, lost jobs, got jobs.... I mean just the circumstances of life might make it more challenging for a blogger to spend as much time as they'd like. I can think of 5 old-timers right off the top of my head who this applies to. Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17960

432. PrivateIdaho 4:21 PM GMT on August 07, 2011
Quoting aquak9: northern eyewall- I got 119º (heat index) on the screened-in back porch, about 25 miles east of Cecil Field. That's 97º with 57% humidity. Oughtta be a law, I'm tellin' ya... Pocatello, Pocatello Regional Airport (KPIH) Lat: 42.92028 Lon: -112.57111 Elev: 4449 Last Update on 07 Aug 8:53 MDT Partly Cloudy 62°F (17°C) Humidity: 62 % Wind Speed: calm Barometer: 30.04 in (1012.80 mb) Dewpoint: 49°F (9°C) Visibility: 10.00 Miles More Local Wx: 3 Day History: Member Since: August 29, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5211

433. aquak9 4:24 PM GMT on August 07, 2011
no, I'm not gonna move to Idaho. Hi ej. Good to see ya. Had high hopes for Emily/Phlegm-ily, just a little rain wouldn't been too much to ask for, would it? Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25036

434. JrWeathermanFL 4:25 PM GMT on August 07, 2011
We have 92L? Member Since: July 19, 2011 Posts: 8 Comments: 1089

435. Hurricanes101 4:25 PM GMT on August 07, 2011
Quoting Stormchaser2007: Maybe some 10-15 knot easterly shear. Nothing too deadly for the moment. SAL should be the main factor for this one. I hope the NHC mentions this in the TWO, looks pretty good the area in the EATL I dont have an issue with being an invest, but I do not think they should mention it in the TWO yet Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6930

436. AussieStorm 4:30 PM GMT on August 07, 2011
Quoting Hurricanes101: I hope the NHC mentions this in the TWO, looks pretty good the area in the EATL I dont have an issue with being an invest, but I do not think they should mention it in the TWO yet They are mentioned in the Tropical Weather Discussion from 8amEST TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF AFRICA ALONG 23N18W 19N19W 15N20W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 10N23W. WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLE LINGERING CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 19W AND 21W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17N43W 11N44W 10N45W. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 46W AND 48W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 43W AND 48W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N56W 15N60W 12N62W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 5 Comments: 13763

437. Levi32 4:33 PM GMT on August 07, 2011
Man it's been a while since I have seen the ITCZ this far north. Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 593 Comments: 25600

438. CybrTeddy 4:35 PM GMT on August 07, 2011
Quoting Hurricanes101: I hope the NHC mentions this in the TWO, looks pretty good the area in the EATL I dont have an issue with being an invest, but I do not think they should mention it in the TWO yet 92L should get a mention at 2. Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 255 Comments: 20629

439. IKE 4:36 PM GMT on August 07, 2011
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn: 425. IKE Saw your general area is in the Storm Summary for high heat indexes. ...FLORIDA... CECIL FIELD NAS 111 PERRY FOLEY ARPT 110 APALACHICOLA MUNI 109 TYNDALL AFB 109 WHITING FLD NAS 109 It's humid outside. It's 90.5 outside my window. Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37070

440. nrtiwlnvragn 4:37 PM GMT on August 07, 2011
Quoting PrivateIdaho: Pocatello, Pocatello Regional Airport (KPIH) Lat: 42.92028 Lon: -112.57111 Elev: 4449 Last Update on 07 Aug 8:53 MDT Partly Cloudy 62°F (17°C) Humidity: 62 % Wind Speed: calm Barometer: 30.04 in (1012.80 mb) Dewpoint: 49°F (9°C) Visibility: 10.00 Miles More Local Wx: 3 Day History: Spud we will remind you, say February Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 12 Comments: 9088

441. AussieStorm 4:37 PM GMT on August 07, 2011
Quoting Levi32: Man it's been a while since I have seen the ITCZ this far north. And that ain't a good thing either. Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 5 Comments: 13763

442. weathermanwannabe 4:37 PM GMT on August 07, 2011
Th great thing about this site (to be positive) is that you have a well respected Pro Met (Dr. Masters) who essentially hosts a public forum, provides Pro tropical assessments and tutorials, and gives weather enthusiasts the opportunity to discuss and share ideas. If you ignore the "trash", and occasional ego-wars between some of the regulars, and focus in on His Blogs and the posts from the better amateurs on here, you can actually learn a lot about tropical meteorology. I have come a long way since 2006 with about 50% of my knowledge base coming from Dr. M and many of the regular posters and the other 50% coming from reading journal articles which Dr. M or other folks regularly post as links to their discussions. Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 6851

443. IKE 4:37 PM GMT on August 07, 2011
12Z GFS @ 180 hours..... Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37070

444. presslord 4:40 PM GMT on August 07, 2011
Chupacabra?Link Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10404

445. PrivateIdaho 4:40 PM GMT on August 07, 2011
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn: Spud we will remind you, say February Let's not talk about that....:/ Member Since: August 29, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5211

446. weathermanwannabe 4:42 PM GMT on August 07, 2011
Enjoy the rest of the day and stay hydrated and cool if you live in some the areas affected by this heat at the moment..............WW Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 6851

447. daddyjames 4:42 PM GMT on August 07, 2011
Quoting AussieStorm: And that ain't a good thing either. Good afternoon. Been a looong time lurker, and was wondering . . . Aussie and/or Levi, does the more northward position of the ITZ promote more spinupos of storms or suppress it? Is there a corelation between the position of the ITZ and the potential for increased activity? Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 749

448. cirrocumulus 4:43 PM GMT on August 07, 2011
Member Since: September 30, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1606

449. CybrTeddy 4:47 PM GMT on August 07, 2011
Slow day today. Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 255 Comments: 20629

450. IKE 4:47 PM GMT on August 07, 2011
Time of the Season 4 Cape Verde systems.... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oc7b62El_fk What's your name....whose yer daddy? Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37070

451. aspectre 4:48 PM GMT on August 07, 2011
28.0n77.8w has been re-evaluated&altered for the 12pmGMT ATCF 28.4n77.6w, 29.7n76.6w are now the most recent positions TropicalDepressionEmily's travel-speed was 18mph(29k/h) on a heading of 33.8degrees(NE) The northernmost line-segment is the straightline projection. Copy&paste 24.6n77.9w, 25.6n78.1w-26.4n78.2w, 26.4n78.2w-27.2n78.1w, 27.2n78.1w-28.4n77.6w, 28.4n77.6w-29.7n76.6w, meo, yhz, bda, 28.4n77.6w-45.787n60.11w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the ATCF coordinates for 6amGMT then 12pmGMT : TD.Emily was headed toward passage over WingingPointLake,NovaScotia ~3days 2&1/3rd hours from now* The previous mapping (for 6amGMT) * 33.75 is midway between NorthNorthEast and NorthEast Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4855

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