Tropical Depression Emily Reforms, Rain for the Bahamas
As of 11PM EDT, Tropical Depression Emily was located at 27.4N, 78.2W, 70 miles NNE of Freeport, Grand Bahama Island. It was moving north at 8 mph with sustained winds of 35 mph and a minimum central pressure of 1011 mb. No watches or warnings are in effect for Emily at this time.
Figure 1 IR satellite view of Emily taken at 1200AM EDT, August 7, 2011
The remnants of Tropical Storm Emily were recognized as a tropical depression after analysis of surface observations, satellite imagery, and Hurricane Hunter flights showed that Emily had achieved a closed circulation again. However, at this time, it is not expected to do much beyond raining heavily (1-3 inches, 6 inches in isolated regions) over the Bahamas. As Figure 2 shows, NHC forecasts Emily to move north and then sharply eastwards before dissipating as it merges with a front. The westerly wind shear associated with this front will be the likely cause for Emily's second demise.
Figure 2 Official track forecast of Emily.
As Figure 3 shows, the concerns for rain from Emily is justified based on past behavior. Satellite estimates shows that on August 4, 3-5 inches of rain fell just south of Hispaniola, with 1-2 inches falling on the southern Dominican Republic.
Figure 3 Satellite-estimated precipitation (mm) for Thursday, August 4 using the CMORPH techniques. Data provided by the Climate Prediction Center
If the situation warrants, we will have a new blog entry Sunday. Otherwise, we will resume the normal posting schedule on Monday.
Thanks for reading,
Dr. Rob Carver
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 — Blog Index
Link
Katrina had 81 billion to Andrew's 26.5 bilion dollars of damage.. loss of life was Katrina 1836 to Andrew's 65.
yeah, its getting ugly
Nice and the 3D art work will look cool around the city too.
Giving direction and education to the masses.
Nyad headed toward Key West:
http://edition.cnn.com/interactive/2011/07/specia ls/map.diana.nyad/index.html
That's the strongest the GFS has ever showed 92L; but nah... It should drop it on the next run. XD
A strong monsoonal gyre in place off the coast of Africa-which accounts for the nearly stationary movement in the model at first. At least a piece of the wave heads NW followed by another development farther south. Might best be viewed at 700mb.
But it does bring something out of the confusion (at least mine) headed west.
I can't find it reed, What link are you using?
Link
Its been naked since yesterday, would be more interesting if it had convection closeby.
Only thing I can gather is a major pole shift...
No it doesn't. First 7 frames must be out of wack as far as time and date stamp. No naked swirl. Added: Or just a floater shift.
: - )
Link
good article I learn something new on here everyday!!
That would help, also looking at watervapor
shows its drifting on the outer edge of the massive amount of dry air to its east side and the west to east winds have some plans for it later too.
Also whats going on in the Carib, developing ULL or something?
Yep
AS USUAL...FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES IN THE LONG TERM PORTION
OF THE FORECAST. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS THE AFOREMENTIONED
MID LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SAGGING SOUTHWARD OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA AND POSSIBLY THE FLORIDA KEYS THURSDAY...BEFORE EVENTUALLY
DISSOLVING LATE THIS WEEK OR EARLY THIS WEEKEND. IF THIS SITUATION
COMES INTO FRUITION...WHICH IS HIGHLY ABNORMAL FOR AUGUST...RAIN
CHANCES WILL END UP HIGHER THAN ADVERTISED.
See ya!
Viewing: 1451 - 1480
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 — Blog Index