July 2011: Most extreme July on record for the U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:43 PM GMT on August 09, 2011

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According to the National Climatic Data Center's Climate Extremes Index, July 2011 was the most extreme July on record (since 1910) with a value of 37%. The Climate Extremes Index is created by merging the various climate indicators (drought, flood, extreme heat, extreme cold, etc.) into an index that can be tracked over time. This month's record CEI was due to extreme warm minimum temperatures across the country, wet northern Plains and Great Lakes, extreme warm maximum temperatures, and the severe drought across the South and Gulf Coast.

It was the fourth warmest July on record for the nation, and the fourth warmest month overall with an average temperature of 77°F. Extreme heat continued to bake the South, and Oklahoma and Texas both had their warmest months on record. Oklahoma's statewide average temperature was a remarkable 88.9°F in July, which is the warmest monthly statewide average for any state in any month. Dallas, Texas hit or exceeded 100°F on 30 out of the 31 days in July. For the entire South climate region, which comprises Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Louisiana, Arkansas, and Mississippi, July 2011 was the warmest month on record for any of the climate regions.

As we noted in a previous blog, an unprecedented area of exceptional drought covered the United States in July, the largest area in the history of the U.S. Drought Monitor. 75% of Texas was in an exceptional drought, and the entire state of Oklahoma was in moderate to exceptional drought in July. The NCDC estimates that it would take 20 inches of rain to end the drought in one month in the worst hit areas of Oklahoma and Texas.


Figure 1. Texas and Oklahoma had its hottest and the state of Washington had its 11th coolest July on record last month, according to the NCDC.


Figure 2. Texas had its second driest July on record, and Oklahoma had its 9th driest according to the NCDC. California continues to be wetter than average, and last month was its 8th wettest July on record.

Angela

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658. hahaguy
2:11 AM GMT on August 10, 2011
Quoting hunkerdown:
and Rita "the meter maid" and Katrina "walking on sunshine" were intimidating...and doesn't Andrew give you the impression of a geek/nerd with horned rim glasses ?


Katrina and the waves or the oj's singing back stabber. Kind of ironic don't you think?
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 2838
657. FrankZapper
2:10 AM GMT on August 10, 2011


????
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656. dearmas
2:09 AM GMT on August 10, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


And it's on it's way to me in Wesley Chapel Fl (Pasco county)
Member Since: August 23, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 121
655. Stormchaser2007
2:06 AM GMT on August 10, 2011
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15950
654. dearmas
2:06 AM GMT on August 10, 2011
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
I had 6" in northern Hillsborough this afternoon, 1" yesterday, and a half inch the day before lol.


5.5" in Wesley Chapel. LOVE IT
Member Since: August 23, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 121
653. JLPR2
2:06 AM GMT on August 10, 2011
The second weak storm developed by the GFS following 92L but heading into the Caribbean instead is supposed to come from this area about to exit Africa.

Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
652. aquak9
2:04 AM GMT on August 10, 2011
I thought they outlawed those kinda shorts...

(runs)
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 178 Comments: 26656
Quoting Dennis8:
IF YOU WANT TO KNOW WHAT IS NOT GOING TO HAPPEN IN THE TROPICS READ THIS BLOG ( with the exception of Dr. Masters and Staff). Especially the folks on her obsessively who appear to be in wheelchairs stuck on this blog with fingers glued to keyboards and eyes on every frame of the satellite.

It is funny to watch. MOTHER NATURE DOES AS SHE WISHES no matter what is written on here. :>)


Definitely.
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647. JLPR2
92L's circulation is a little well... not that defined.


Still a long way from being a TD.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
Yes, we have had more rain in the first 9 days of August (total about 6" incl 3 1/2" today). June was bone dry here in New Port Richey with barely 2" and July (except for that one day deluge) was quite dry hot and sunny. Seabreezes kept my coastal location sunny and dry as storms moved inland. I, too, am glad to see the reptile population explode. Now they need to eat those bugs! More rain is anticipated on Wed.....
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Quoting mcluvincane:
92L looks like a long west tracker. The fish peeps should be out shortly.


You have mail.
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Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15950
Quoting ncstorm:


so we should wait until the storm is near a land mass before we start predicting..lets just throw the models out and point a finger in the wind and check if east winds are blowing? its nothing wrong in thinking where a potential storm might go..
I'm not saying wait till its near land mass but there is not even a system at the moment, nor is formation eminent. At this point pointing a finger is as good as predicting per models anyway...as for the models right now, garbage in, garbage out.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Back up on the FNMOC site




That sure looks like alot of something off the coast of Africa!LOL
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Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32832
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15950
Quoting hunkerdown:
and Rita "the meter maid" and Katrina "walking on sunshine" were intimidating...and doesn't Andrew give you the impression of a geek/nerd with horned rim glasses ?

And Fran sounds like someone's name in a 90's sitcom. Oh wait...
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CMC @ 120 hours:



ECMWF @ 120 hours:



GFS @ 120 hours:



NGP @ 120 hours:

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32832
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Hurricane Lili

Not the most terrifying of names.

and Rita "the meter maid" and Katrina "walking on sunshine" were intimidating...and doesn't Andrew give you the impression of a geek/nerd with horned rim glasses ?
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Quoting hahaguy:


I have it doing three loops then heading to florida lol.


This is how I see 92L playing out if it develops:

It'll choose to defy the models and tick us all off for a week. All the while we'll go about screaming: "He's going west!! No, it'll recurve!" but just to spite us, he'll head south, and then east, in a move that would generally be regarded as not very likely. Then by the time it heads towards land, wherever that may be, it'll go 'poof.'
Member Since: June 18, 2010 Posts: 3 Comments: 946
Maybe we should wait before calling 92L pre-Franklin or anything like that. A lot of the models are predicting TC development in a fashion very similar to Bret within the next 3-5 days.

Another something to watch.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32832
Quoting hahaguy:


I have it doing three loops then heading to florida lol.
Per the wunderkid model, it will make a last minute SW dip, below the keys, with a 180 degree turn in the straights, around the eastern tip of Cuba, circling Jamaica and head straight for the Caymans....sorry Kman, no offense, just wanted to give you the heads up :)
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Quoting Ameister12:
Will we get a Hurricane Franklin? Nah...
turtles are Hardcore.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Hey, there is nothing wrong with a little long range forecasting. ;)
true, but, there would have to be something to forecast. At this point, this is long range guessing/wishing.
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Quoting Ameister12:
Will we get a Hurricane Franklin? Nah...


HA. I was just thinking about that turtle.

But in all seriousness, it's a bit too early to say if 92L will be a hurricane or not.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Exactly.

Only models run were the BAM suite.
i think they ran the XTRAP *engages shield to avoid stoning*
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Hurricane Lili

Not the most terrifying of names.

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15950
Quoting kmanislander:
Model runs this far out for 92L probably have an accuracy rate of 5% or less.


I have it doing three loops then heading to florida lol.
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 2838
623. THL3
Quoting JLPR2:
Water Temps around Puerto Rico.

Arecibo, PR 82.9 °F
Fajardo, PR 86.0 °F
Aquadilla, PR 90.0 °F
San Juan, PR 84.9 °F
Mayaguez, PR 87.1 °F
Esperanza, PR 86.0 °F
Isabel Segunda, Vieques, PR 86.0 °F

Eastern Caribbean is boiling too. :\


Morgans Point, TX 88.9
Port Aransas, TX 90.1
Port Mansfield, TX 90.0
Rockport, TX 93.7
Sabine Pass 89.1
(08/10/2011 00:48 UTC)
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Quoting kmanislander:
Model runs this far out for 92L probably have an accuracy rate of 5% or less.


Exactly.

Only models run were the BAM suite.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15950
Quoting aussiecold:
oh no!! another invest???!! OMG we will see very soon how reedzone lead all the evacuation for the residents of the East Coast !!!


Evacuate the Katy Prairie! Everyone, To the freeway!
Member Since: June 18, 2010 Posts: 3 Comments: 946
Quoting hunkerdown:
or a turtle by its shell...

..seriously, its a little far out to make the call of any proposed path let alone if and or when it develops.


Hey, there is nothing wrong with a little long range forecasting. ;)
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32832
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


haha, but you know, you can never judge a book by its cover.
or a turtle by its shell...

..seriously, its a little far out to make the call of any proposed path let alone if and or when it develops.
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Model runs this far out for 92L probably have an accuracy rate of 5% or less.
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Quoting Ameister12:
Will we get a Hurricane Franklin? Nah...


haha, but you know, you can never judge a book by its cover...or, a tropical cyclone by its name.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32832
616. JLPR2
Quoting mcluvincane:
92L looks like a long west tracker. The fish peeps should be out shortly.


Fish! XD
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
Back up on the FNMOC site




Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15950
92L looks like a long west tracker. The fish peeps should be out shortly.
Member Since: June 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1404
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
00z
FULL




if models hold true, looks like an isabel track (2003) what a storm she was before landfall, my favorite satellite image of a hurricane!!!
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Quoting hunkerdown:
>


LOL. Having trouble with a particular link
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Will we get a Hurricane Franklin? Nah...
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00z
FULL


Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15950
Quoting kmanislander:




Wow, that's a lot of blue...
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Quoting kmanislander:
<
>
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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