Two African waves, 92L and 93L, worth watching
An African wave is near 13°N 35°W, about 700 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. This system, (Invest 92L), is moving west to west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph, and has the potential to develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm before arriving near the northern Lesser Antilles Islands early next week. Recent visible satellite loops show that 92L has less heavy thunderstorm activity near where it is trying to develop its circulation center than yesterday. Water vapor satellite loops that a large area of dry air lies just to the west of 92L, but the atmosphere in the immediate vicinity of 92L is moist. Even so, the decline of heavy thunderstorm activity since yesterday implies that dry air is probably working its way into 92L. The SHIPS model and University of Wisconsin CIMSS wind shear analysis are showing moderate wind shear of 10 - 15 knots affecting 92L. Sea surface temperatures are 26.5° - 27°C, which is very close to the 26.5°C threshold usually needed to support a tropical storm.
Figure 1. Morning satellite photo of Invest 92L and Invest 93L.
Forecast for 92L
Low to moderate wind shear of 5 - 15 knots is predicted along 92L's path over the coming three days, which should allow the storm to organize, assuming it can shut out any incursions of dry air that might intrude. The latest 00Z and 06Z model runs of the four best models for predicting tropical storm formation (GFS, ECMWF, NOGAPS, and UKMET) show weak development or no development of 92L, and NHC gave 92L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook. A steady west to west-northwest motion for 92L is predicted by all of the models, which would put the storm in the vicinity of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands by Sunday. On Saturday and Sunday, 92L is expected to enter a region where an upper-level low pressure system will bring high wind shear of 20 knots to the storm, which should slow development. This upper-level low is also expected to turn 92L more to the northwest, so the storm is likely to pass north of the Lesser Antilles, though may pass close enough to give heavy rains to the northernmost islands. It is too early to know if 92L will recurve out to sea and potentially threaten Bermuda, or continue to the northwest towards the U.S. East Coast.
93L
An African wave that emerged off the coast of Africa is near 10°N 22°W, a few hundred miles south of the Cape Verde Islands. This system, (Invest 93L), is also moving west at 10 - 15 mph, and has the potential to develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm before arriving near the northern Lesser Antilles Islands near the middle of next week. Recent visible satellite loops show that 93L has a decent amount of heavy thunderstorms, but this activity is not well organized. There is not much spin associated with 93L yet. 93L is fairly well-protected from dry air to its north and west. The SHIPS model and University of Wisconsin CIMSS wind shear analysis are showing moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots affecting 93L. Sea surface temperatures are 27.5°C, which is one degree above the 26.5°C threshold usually needed to support a tropical storm.
Forecast for 93L
Moderate wind shear below 20 knots is predicted along 93L's path over the coming five days, which should allow the storm to steadily organize. 93L is about 600 miles east of 92L, which is close enough that the two systems may interfere with each others' organization. The latest 00Z and 06Z model runs of the four best models for predicting tropical storm formation (GFS, ECMWF, NOGAPS, and UKMET), have only one model, the GFS, that is indicating significant development of 93L. This model brings 93L near the northern Lesser Antilles Islands by Wednesday. NHC gave 93L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook. Due to moister air, the potential for less wind shear, and a more southerly track, 93L is probably a greater threat to the Lesser Antilles than 92L.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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You're so right....ya get a little rain and then you pay for with the sultry steam....but glad you did get a little reprive...:)
I know why when you post I always have a visual of this guy:
:^P
93L
There are a couple different ways to reporduce into a movie but all include copying each image seperately ..
Painful process , I will try when I get home tonight if it is still there. It does stimulate conversation.
Link
even if you did the last half from the bahamas on...would save a bunch of time....
Any kind of circulation that 93L has looks like it would be on the eastern side of the convection, but as I noted this morning, I don't really see a circulation there on satellite imagery - just linearly converging winds into the monsoon trough for now.
Thanks for that.
Will study it later.
Looks like the Caribbean Islands are generally "green" except for (apparently) Trinidad&Tobago.
Trinidad has very little coral except on the NW point (effects of the Orinoco River and water temps) but Tobago has plenty which is in pretty bad shape, and getting worse. Due to water temps, sediment run-off, effluent from resorts etc etc.
Same story as other places.....
uh
yep...
Hi Baha :})
hey ya Caicos...where were you stationed and when did you retire?
A "well-defined low pressure system" does not necessarily imply a well-defined circulation. The same phrase could be applied to a consolidated low pressure area on the equator with say an 8mb gradient between it and the surrounding environment, but is there any coriolis force at the equator to make it spin? No, therefore there is no circulation.
...well I guess the only time I was "stationed" somewhere was when I was the Park Warden for the Bahamas National Trust in the Exuma Cays Land and Sea park. I did my sailing on various sailing vessels, and retired in 2004 here on Providenciales.
CRS
So, are these two systems off the coast of Africa going to be:
A= Fish
B= Hit
C= Too early to decide
MARK
12.35N/28.00W
I keep hearing about this model (and the link) but I can't find it. Does anyone still have access to it. I would love to see it!
LOL CRS has a diff meaning where i come from lol...i was navy...thought that was what you were referring to...
Seriously, enough with all the New Orleans talk.
AF here...
Hey,CRS. I hope u r noticing all these models paving ahurricane superhighway across r islands.......
Link
here ya go, play in slow mo
I approve of models coming here...
but NOT hurricanes!
thank you.
Hi all. If you look to the development of those waves 92L and 93L, they both don't look very concerning at the moment in respect to their spin. Earlier it was much better.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/tpw2/ natl/main.html
This comment has been removed for violating the Community Standards.
What did I say wrong?
Nah.... just means I type too slow to type out the whole name every time.... lol
At least "hit NOLA" can be construed as a joke.... If I put "hit Bahamas" that's prolly actually got 13% probability next to it :o(....
Clear Center....
http://tinyurl.com/2fx8r59
Hey, rv1.... I enjoyed the conversation about alt. energy sources in the context of hurricane prep....
/left out :( LOL Jk.
Aternoon all. Looks like 93L is beginning to work up a surface circulation but it needs to detach from the ITCZ. It might be a race between 92L and 93L to TD6/Franklin, but I suspect 93L is going to win. Very active off Africa though today.
Link
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